Posted 30 August 2014 - 03:15 AM
loads of war-related shit, hard to follow.
Bottom line is: with Russia throwing in about 20k troops, Ukraine's numerical advantage has been severely undercut. Moreover, a large chunk of Ukrainian forces have ended up surrounded. Yesterday it were the forces in the south, around Illovaysk and Amvrosiyevka. Among those surrounded--majority of the volunteer battalions, whose fate is a constant worry of anyone that had anyhting to do with the Revolution, and a constant headache to the politicians and the generals in the ATO HQ.
The latest update is that the volunteer battalions "Donbass" and "Dnipro-1", (along with some Ukrainian regulars and parts of other battalions) have tried to break through the encirclement, but only managed to get about 15 klicks south, before being again surrounded and blockaded. After some very high-level negotiations, they will supposedly be allowed through to the Ukrainian front, but only with their handheld weapons--all heavy tech will be destroyed, so as not to give it to the Russians.
Today, the danger has spread to the forces beseiging Luhansk from the south. Command needs to act quickly and decisively to deal with the situation, but there's just about 0 political will to do that. Due to this, the situation looks grim.
A sizeable group of Ukrainian troops formerly stationed on the border with Russia now prepares to defend Mariupol. Local citizens, who have already tasted the joys of DNR occupation are taking a pretty active stance in the defense, helping to dig ditches and fortify the approaches to the city. Lots of people fleeing westward, as well, but a lot of people staying, and volunteering to defend the city.
The situation looks incredibly grim. Due to the fact that the govt continues to ignor the popular call to institute total mobilization--right now the ATO forces (since the govt continues to stubbornly label it as such) simply don't have the manpower to maintain a strong presence along such a stetched out front.
The problem continues to be this--the govt is afraid of another round of Revolution, and so it is terrified of arming the patriots, who currently support it, but whom it can't control. They continue to believe that Putin is the lesser evil, and they expect they'll be able to cut some kind of deal with him.
Internationally, huge props to UK, who has suggeste Russia be cut off from SWIFT banking system--Iran-level sanctions, basically cutting off Russia from the global electronic banking network. The supposed draft of tomorrow's EU summit which "increases the sanctions" by introducing embargoes on Russian vodka, caviar and furs seems like a really bad joke.
I really don't know what to think now. it's a very fragile situation right now. Russia's also on a timer--RUble plunged to an all-time low today, and it's possible it'll keep falling tomorrow. The more Russians go home in coffins and the more Russian prisoners Ukrainian army shows, the harder it will be for Putin to deny involvement even at home. And while there may well be a good 70% who didcheer and worship Putin for "Crimea is ours!", once Russians are told they are really at war with Ukrainians, opinions are likely to shift somewhat. I can't guess if it will be enough of a shift, but there will be some resistance to it at home.
Also, Uki govt is to present Parliament with a law to abolish Ukraine's "non-blckable" constitutional status--a pre-requisite for declaring we are mving towards NATO. Uki diplomats are working overtime--a lot of hopes are pinned on Congress recognizing UA as an ally of the US--but I'm not expecting any miracles.
The problem with the gene pool is that there's no lifeguard
THE CONTESTtm WINNER--чемпіон самоконтролю
Jump Around, on 23 October 2011 - 11:04 AM, said:
And I want to state that Ment has out-weaseled me by far in this game.