[Cause]

I saw a clip from trump-piers interview where trump suggested if he were president he would use USA nukes to put luff Russian nukes. Was a very concerning answers

[Mentalist]

We are all hopeful Russia will cease to be a thing by the time the US gets to give us next round of collective heart attacks.

UAF is putting their top effort into it, one body bag at a time.

Hopefully Congress passes the Lend-Lease Act today. There was a meeting of 40 countries in Germany yesterday to form a coalition to arm Ukraine to demilitarize Russia (Japan and Korea were also there by video link)

Ruscists are trying to raise the stakes by stirring up Transnistria, and possibly invading Moldova? Lol, unclear.

Feels like this escalation would just make China and India back off supporting Putler, since he's clearly proving to be an unhinged warmonger.

Finland and Sweden will file NATO apps mid-May, so should be accepted at the June summit.

Israel joins Kazakhstan in canceling the May 9the Victory Day parades.

Poland figured out how to supply German refineries in East Germany, so that Germans can say "nein" to Russian pipe. Not so clear on gas yet, but oil embargo is coming.

[Cause]

@mentalist: the way this war is going I half expect the UAF to be eating caviar in the kremlin by the end of the year.

Russia certainly had a rude awakening

[Mentalist]

 Cause, on 27 April 2022 - 03:14 PM, said:

@mentalist: the way this war is going I half expect the UAF to be eating caviar in the kremlin by the end of the year.

Russia certainly had a rude awakening

Crossing into territory claimed by Russia that is not Crimea would likely stir at least a portion of Russians to "defend the motherland" at any cost- because then Putler can sell it as a "Patriotic defensive War"


We don't need that headache. Reclaiming our territory and then leaving the Russians to stew with the losses and failed economy to implode is the best solution.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

'Top Kremlin Mouthpiece Says Russia Has No Choice but to Use Nuclear Weapons

[...] editor-in-chief of the propaganda outlets RT and Sputnik[...]

"The Anglo-Saxons publicly encourage Ukraine to take their hostilities into Russian territory. And they give them means to carry that plan out.

"What choice do you leave us, idiots? The total annihilation of what remains of Ukraine? A nuclear strike?"

In Putinist circles the term "Anglo-Saxons" can be used as a bit of a catch-all for malign Western influences, but there appeared to be little doubt that Simonyan's message was referring to Britain.'

[...] Putin [...] in a speech to lawmakers [... said] "If someone intends to intervene in the ongoing events from the outside, and create strategic threats for Russia that are unacceptable to us, they should know that our retaliatory strikes will be lightning-fast," [...]

"We have all the tools for this, things no one else can boast of having now. And we will not boast, we will use them if necessary. And I want everyone to know that."'

Margarita Simonyan, Top Kremlin Mouthpiece, Says Russia Is Being Forced Into Using Nukes in Ukraine (thedailybeast.com)

'Putin Deploys Top-Secret Attack Dolphins in War on Ukraine
FASTER THAN LIGHTNING'

Putin Deploys Top-Secret Attack Dolphins in War on Ukraine (thedailybeast.com)

... doubt they'll help much in the mud... hopefully they don't have any highly trained cyborg attack hippos.

[Mentalist]

Sigh.
Those were our dolphins

They stole them, along with 95% of the belongings and assets of the Ukrainian Black Sea Fleet, back in 2014.

[Whisperzzzzzzz]

 Mentalist, on 29 April 2022 - 06:30 PM, said:

Sigh.
Those were our dolphins

They stole them, along with 95% of the belongings and assets of the Ukrainian Black Sea Fleet, back in 2014.

The dolphins remember...and are nursing a grudge. The dolphins will have their revenge...

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

'Russian State TV Screens Simulated Destruction of U.K. and Ireland via Nuclear-Triggered Tsunami
THANKS FOR SHARING

[...] falsely claimed [...] Boris Johnson had threatened a nuclear strike on Russia. [...] "The island is so small that just one Sarmat missile is sufficient to sink it once and for all. Everything has been calculated already." [...] an "underwater drone," with "a yield of up to 100 megatons… will cause a gigantic tidal wave up to 500m high" and turn the British Isles into a "radioactive desert." An animation showed a missile exploding off the northeast coast of the Republic of Ireland, and the ensuing tidal wave wiping out both Ireland and the U.K.'

Russian State TV Screens Simulated Destruction of U.K. and Ireland via Nuclear-Triggered Tsunami (thedailybeast.com)

'Russia Doubles Down on Bizarre Claim Israel Is Antisemitic

[...] part of Moscow's relentless efforts to bolster its narrative that Nazis are controlling Ukraine, despite the country's own president being Jewish.'

Russia Doubles Down on Bizarre Claim Israel Is Antisemitic (thedailybeast.com)

'Putin's Holy Man Insists "Russia Has Never Attacked Anyone"

Russian Orthodox Patriarch Kirill delivered a sermon [...] claiming Russia "has never attacked anyone" and "doesn't want to fight," [...] Asking the saints buried in the cathedral to protect Russia's "sacred borders," he said he hoped Russians had enough "wisdom, strength, and honor to defend the sacred borders of the fatherland," [...] "It's amazing when a great and powerful country has not attacked anyone, it has only been defending its borders,"'

Putin's Holy Man Insists 'Russia Has Never Attacked Anyone' (thedailybeast.com)


'Putin may soon officially declare war on Ukraine, US and Western officials say

[...] as soon as May 9, a move that would enable the full mobilization of Russia's reserve forces as invasion efforts continue to falter[...]

May 9, known as "Victory Day" inside of Russia, commemorates the country's defeat of the Nazis [...]

"He's been rolling the pitch, laying the ground for being able to say 'look, this is now a war against Nazis, and what I need is more people. I need more Russian cannon fodder.'"'

Putin may soon officially declare war on Ukraine, US and Western officials say - CNN

[Malankazooie]

 Malankazooie, on 05 March 2022 - 06:50 PM, said:

Brittney Griner (professional basketball player) detained in Russia. Something about having hashish oil in her luggage at the Moscow Airport.

US State Dept. has updated her status as "wrongfully detained."

[Mentalist]

Everyone is stressing over Victory day and how they're gonna try to play it.

Apparently they want a parade in Mariupol, so they're trying to end resistance @ Azovstal.

UAF making pushes NE of Kharkiv to clear the suburbs, outlying villages and dacha complexes that are used as firing bases by the artillery crews lobbing shells at the city.

Unclear wtf is happening at Kherson, loads of back and forth. The morning brief suggested fighting merely 20 km W of the city centre, which indicates some huge gains all of a sudden.
in Donbas the Contact Line holds, the "outer pincer" stalled hard, but the inner pincer from the N is making slow gains --on the wrong side of the Donets' river, for now. Not much happening, and the reported casualties there are mounting.

Sounds like the EU getting ready to put sanctions on any oil tankers buying from Russia' which could effectively kill their non-pipeline export which will then get phased out gradually.
So if that gets announced this week, should be good.

[Mentalist]

Sounds like Ruscists gave up on their dream of "grand envelopment" of the entire Donbas, and are now throwing everything at the more modest goal of capturing the 4 big cities of Luhans'k Oblast (2 of which, Rubizhne and Popasna have practically ceased to exist by now, being nothing but rubble), to take control over the remaking 5-7 percent of the Oblast.

They still need to break across the Donets' river to complete their encirclement, but in that particular region, with the complete dominance in firepower, they have the greatest advantage. For now.

Even then, I do not expect them to succeed before Monday. They are trying to storm Azovstal and I have no idea how much longer those troops can hold. Still, I wouldn't expect any resounding victories for Putler this weekend.

Some good gains N of Kharkiv for the UAF. I'd have preferred they focus more E towards Izyum, but apparently the Ruscists needed to weaken the north to send more troops to be ground down in Izyum, so this provided an opening.

Hopefully, now that they're only in range for the more expensive shells and rockets, the indiscriminate bombing of Kharkiv will have become too costly to continue.

[Tsundoku]

Poo-tin got hacked.

https://www.news.com...1f0a3ef7c776dba

Vladimir Putin honours dead as Victory Day parade speech hacked
Vladimir Putin’s long-anticipated speech in front of thousands of troops today was hijacked in the worst possible way for the Russian leader.

This post has been edited by Tsundoku: 09 May 2022 - 11:56 AM

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

'oligarch "close to Putin" says "stories about him going bonkers are not a joke" [...]

[...] "[...] the emperor's madness is real, and the nuclear strike's threat is very real [...]"'

'[...] Putin's "psychiatric health is bad"

[...] "people who are close to him, including oligarchs [believe he has cancer]" [...]

[...] Putin may soon vanish for a period as [he] undergoes surgery linked to cancer.'

Oligarch says 'stories about Putin going bonkers are not a joke' and 'nuclear threat is very real'

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 09 May 2022 - 03:39 PM

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

'Russia's War Has Been Brutal, but Putin Has Shown Some Restraint. Why?

Analysts wonder whether a bigger mobilization by Moscow is on the horizon.

Russia could be going after Ukrainian railways, roads and bridges more aggressively to try to stanch the flow of Western weapons to the front line. It could have bombed more of the infrastructure around the capital, Kyiv, to make it harder for Western leaders to visit [...] in shows of unity and resolve. And it could be doing far more to inflict pain on the West, whether by cyberattack, sabotage or more cutoffs of energy exports to Europe.

Part of the reason appears to be sheer incompetence: The opening weeks of the war demonstrated vividly that Russia's military was far less capable than believed before the invasion. But [...] Putin's tactics in recent weeks have appeared to be remarkably cautious, marked by a slow-moving offensive in eastern Ukraine, a restrained approach to taking out Ukrainian infrastructure and an avoidance of actions that could escalate the conflict with NATO.

[... has not yet been an] official declaration of war and a mass mobilization of the Russian people.

For the moment, Mr. Putin appears to be in a military holding pattern, one that is allowing Ukraine to regroup and stock up on Western weaponry. On Monday, a senior Pentagon official called Russia's latest offensive in eastern Ukraine "very cautious, very tepid." In Russia, there is grumbling that the military is fighting with one hand tied behind its back[...]

[...]

For weeks, officials in Washington have discussed why the Russian military has not been more aggressive in trying to destroy the supply lines that send Western arms shipments into Ukraine. Part of the answer, officials say, is that Ukrainian air defense continues to threaten Russian aircraft, and the deeper Russian planes go into Ukraine the greater the chance they are going to be shot down.

Russia has also struggled with its precision munitions — missiles or rockets with guidance systems. Many of those weapons have failed to work properly, and Russian supplies of the weapons are limited. Strikes on rail lines or moving convoys must be very precise to be effective.

Other officials have argued that Moscow is eager to avoid destroying Ukraine's infrastructure too severely, in the possibly misguided hope that it can still take control of the country.''

Russia's War Has Been Brutal, but Putin Has Shown Some Restraint. Why? - The New York Times (nytimes.com)


Putin will probably---hopefully--be stymied in Ukraine, at least in the near term. And enough sanctions will remain in place to limit his ability to rebuild and strengthen the Russian military---though part of that may be changes in military culture and organization not requiring much in the way of funds. And even more of the economy can be devoted to military development. More effective ways around the sanctions will almost certainly be found, especially with the support of China and other nations.

He's not likely to let go of his long-term ambitions. If he thinks he's terminally ill and going to die soon he may be willing to go nuclear to achieve them---or at least to plausibly blackmail European nations with the threat, mobilizing missiles... perhaps even using a small tactical nuke sufficiently far away from Russia. Possibly the UK?...

But he might wait to try to get Trump reelected. Even with Trump's full military support (which seems very unlikely, at least for a while) Putin would find it almost impossible to conquer and occupy Europe with conventional land forces. But with the threat of mass destruction at a distance, if the missile shields Germany and others are setting up can't stop the hypersonic nuclear missiles....

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 10 May 2022 - 07:16 PM

[Macros]

 Azath Vitr (D, on 10 May 2022 - 07:15 PM, said:

But he might wait to try to get Trump reelected. Even with Trump's full military support (which seems very unlikely, at least for a while) Putin would find it almost impossible to conquer and occupy Europe with conventional land forces. But with the threat of mass destruction at a distance, if the missile shields Germany and others are setting up can't stop the hypersonic nuclear missiles....

Dude, seriously, not at least for a while
Never
Like NEVER, lay off the Kool Aid

An American president who tried to support Russia invading Europe would be.....removed immediately.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

 Macros, on 10 May 2022 - 08:19 PM, said:

 Azath Vitr (D, on 10 May 2022 - 07:15 PM, said:

But he might wait to try to get Trump reelected. Even with Trump's full military support (which seems very unlikely, at least for a while) Putin would find it almost impossible to conquer and occupy Europe with conventional land forces. But with the threat of mass destruction at a distance, if the missile shields Germany and others are setting up can't stop the hypersonic nuclear missiles....

Dude, seriously, not at least for a while
Never
Like NEVER, lay off the Kool Aid

An American president who tried to support Russia invading Europe would be.....removed immediately.

After the elections of 2024 or 2026 there may well be enough Christian nationalists, Trump loyalists, and fascism-curious kleptocrats in the Senate to make conviction, even for directly and openly providing military support for Russian attacks on Europe, unlikely.

For example, in Pennsylvania now:

'Surging "ultra-MAGA" Senate candidate "threatening to steal the nomination" from Dr. Oz'

Surging 'ultra-MAGA' Senate candidate 'threatening to steal the nomination' from Dr. Oz

Christian Nationalist (/ fascist) Mastriano's popularity on the primary ticket will very likely help her win. In addition to extreme Christianity, they want to prioritize 'fixing' the voting system... so Republicans can elect whoever they want.

With the election system compromised---especially after a Trump win in 2024---the Senate of 2026 could be terrible. That may also give Putin enough time (after the end of US sanctions in 2024) to rebuild Russia's military capacity, with or without direct aid from Trump.

Incidentally, if Putin will be looking for a country that's in Europe but maximally distant from Russia to nuke... Ireland seems like a prime target. Russian State TV already aired the simulation... would the UK really respond with its own nuclear weapons in retaliation on behalf of Ireland, given that would almost certainly be suicide? ... so (given the spread of the fall-out) you may want to be wary of complacency.

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 10 May 2022 - 09:54 PM

[Macros]

Time to start prepping and build my bunker then eh?

[Aptorian]

On the one hand I think Azath spends way too much time doom scrolling and worrying about fear mongering articles.

On the other hand I wouldn't be surprised if America elects an animatronic reagan doll that only speaks in sound bites from FOX News in 2024 and declares war on Atlantis because the sea people allow mexican socialist gangsters to invade their country via the beaches.

[Mentalist]

If Putler uses a nuke first anywhere in the world, China will end him-personally. End of discussion. China has ambitions to colonize space, they don't need this geriatric fucktard blowing up the world b4 they can get the resources to get there in numbers. That's why they published a study about bunker-busting missiles, with explicit hints that they know where he's hiding, and they WILL reach him.

In the event of an Europe-Russia showdown, a Trumpist US could play dumb, obstruct and isolationist, but they would not outright support Putler. And conventionally, Poland, Finland and Ukraine, with backing from the UK, and hopefully the old EU would be enough to reduce the remainder of their conventional armour and airforce.

Russia hasn't lost yet, but it feels increasingly unlikely that they will win. And i don't see that trend reversing any time soon.

[Aptorian]

The fact that it looks like Russia can't win quickly or decisively, is what makes me worried they might use nukes.

Putin was delusional enough to think they could invade Ukraine with out real consequences. Putin might think he can nuke a city like Kyiv, to break Ukraine's morale and get away with it, because it's not a NATO member they're attacking.

China isn't going to attack Russia over some dust up in Europe.

This post has been edited by Aptorian: 11 May 2022 - 12:48 PM