[Werthead]

I'm seeing speculation that best strategy for Ukraine is to attack along the direction from Zaporizhzhia SE towards the coast. This axis of attack is the most promising because the Russians have heavily fortified and reinforced Kherson and are obviously in Donbas in force, but along that front they seem spread out and not as well fortified. Attacking in that direction has multiple advantages, including liberating the nuclear power plant that Russia has almost destroyed several times, retaking Melitopol (and linking up with the highly successful partisan units in that area), severing the main rail link from Crimea and bringing the Kerch Bridge into firing range (even if Ukraine doesn't hit it, Russia might feel it's too vulnerable and stop using it, drastically slowing reinforcement; they've already carried out exercises about an attack on the bridge, resulting a multi-car pileup). Also, severing the rail link and moving to the SW brings Kherson under threat from the east, and might trigger a full-scale evacuation of all Russian forces west of the Dnieper anyway. There is also the possibility of striking SE to liberate Mariupol, which would be a huge PR victory, and well-positions Ukrainian forces for further advances into Donbas.

It's certainly an ambitious idea, but it does have advantages over attacking Kherson head-on, which might involve heavy casualties.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 15 July 2022 - 07:24 PM

[Mentalist]

UAF started turning the Antonivsky bridge next to Kherson into Swiss cheese. This effectively halves the Ruscists' capacity to keep their forces on the Right Bank supplied. The other crossing is at Kakhovka Dam, and the city of Nova Kakhovka which is on the other side of the river has seen a lot of HIMARS attention presently, with many supply depots and ammo dumps exploding spectacularly.

These are all VERY distinct hints that the orcs really should pull off another "goodwill gesture' and pull the F back beyond the Dnipro river, lest they want to be surrounded and forced to surrender.

[Cause]

I’m so happy Ukraine has been proving such a tough nut. It’s unfortunate they have had to shoulder this burden but they are proving to the world that the calculus of conquest no longer computes. Everyone will be thinking twice now.

[Malankazooie]

Hopefully this doesn't have that YouTube regional blocking deal.

Last night at the ESPY Awards, Vitali Klitschko, Mayor of Kyiv (who is a former heavy weight boxing champion), was given the The Arthur Ashe Courage Award. Link is to the accompanying video they ran before presenting the award. It's pretty powerful.

https://www.youtube....h?v=gR9BjVGX1OA

[Werthead]

Sounds like a thousand Russians (around two Battalion Tactical Groups) are surrounded or almost so in Vysokopillya (apologies if I'm getting these spellings wrong, Ment!), at the far NW end of the line on the southern front. Ukrainian forces swept in from two sides and almost turned the Russian flanks, but they just managed to hold on and keep open a route to the south. Apparently they contacted the Ukrainians and asked for a "green corridor," which is supposed to be for civilians evacuating, not enemy occupiers. The response to that seems to have been colourful. Looks like the Ukrainians are eager to pull off a "roll up the line" maneuver, which could be quite spectacular.

Also more hammering of the area around Kherson, where the Russians seem to have completely run out of artillery ammunition. They started firing S300 and S400 AA missiles in ground-attack mode at Mykolaiv, which is next to useless because AA missiles can't penetrate hardened targets. All they can do is uselessly blow up infrastructure (not that's stopped them deliberately blowing up infrastructure but there we go).

A US defence analyst has said that Russia's forces in the south are ripe for a total kicking. Limited reinforcements available, the lines east of the Dnieper are shaky as hell and there's partisans and even just ordinary civilians causing merry hell around Melitopol. There's also the fact that if Ukraine can cross the river and position their forces to threaten Crimea, Russia will pull everything they can out of Donbas to protect Sevastopol. That could stall the entire Russian plans for further offensives.

[Werthead]

Apparently most of the Rosvgardia troops (military police/actual police) being used as a security force in Kherson have upped and left. Russian regular troops had to redeploy to take over the checkpoints. Some Ukrainian farmers have reported being approached by blatantly Russians in civilian clothing asking for directions to Crimea. Russian regular troops in Kherson have started looting, which is usually a sign of them preparing to pull out. Some Russian collaborators have also apparently disappeared in the city, amidst reports of partisans shooting at Russian forces.

If they're not preparing to withdraw, they're certainly not filling anyone with confidence that they are going to stay and make a fight of it.

[Mentalist]

 Werthead, on 25 July 2022 - 10:13 AM, said:

Apparently most of the Rosvgardia troops (military police/actual police) being used as a security force in Kherson have upped and left. Russian regular troops had to redeploy to take over the checkpoints. Some Ukrainian farmers have reported being approached by blatantly Russians in civilian clothing asking for directions to Crimea. Russian regular troops in Kherson have started looting, which is usually a sign of them preparing to pull out. Some Russian collaborators have also apparently disappeared in the city, amidst reports of partisans shooting at Russian forces.

If they're not preparing to withdraw, they're certainly not filling anyone with confidence that they are going to stay and make a fight of it.

At the same time, local officials are reporting increased prep for the "referendums", and there's a lot of equipment sighted heading towards the Right Bank.

We all want to see a major breakthrough, but nothing's confirmed as of yet.

The fact that Ukraine is starting to receive those mobile AA platforms (Stormers from the UK, plus the first batch of the German Gepards) is certainly promising, since those are very obviously "cover the advancing troops" type units.

Whether we can capitalize on the momentum before the orcs get another big batch of recruits in to try to swing it the other way is still up in the air,

[Werthead]

Kherson being rocked by more explosions tonight. Unclear what's being hit, but wouldn't rule out the bridges again.

Russia has explained that it was firing at a Ukrainian warship in Odesa the other day, despite Odesa port CCTV showing no ships, warships or otherwise in dock.

Looks like the Ukrainian mini-offensives around Izyum from a couple of months ago, which could very well be one of the unsung decisive moments of the war, preventing the northern pincer from closing around the Donbas, have resumed. Ukrainian artillery and drones destroying Russian tanks and infantry fighting vehicles.

The Ukrainians have destroyed what looks like a major fuel dump in Budonivskyi, near Donetsk. Massive amounts of fire spewing up there.

The Russians have released news footage of pontoon bridges being built next to destroyed bridges over the Inhulets River...resulting in Ukrainian artillery and drones targeting those pontoon bridges as well, fairly predictably. Probably not a good idea to use an already-zeroed area to build something and then put it on television.

[Mentalist]

Early reports saying Antonov Bridge might be gone--at least 1 section of it.

Unclear how much this actually crushes their logistics (it was already down to using vehicles under 5 tons), but I'm sure it's a huge psychological blow to lose a big-ass bridge that's been protected with a ton of anti-air assets.

[Werthead]

 Mentalist, on 27 July 2022 - 12:28 AM, said:

Early reports saying Antonov Bridge might be gone--at least 1 section of it.

Unclear how much this actually crushes their logistics (it was already down to using vehicles under 5 tons), but I'm sure it's a huge psychological blow to lose a big-ass bridge that's been protected with a ton of anti-air assets.

One map I saw today has exactly one (1) bridge in Kherson Oblast over either the Dnipro or Inhulets that the Russians can even think about using for heavy tanks, trucks and artillery. The other bridges are either destroyed completely or have been hammered down to light civilian traffic only.

Some Russian media based in Kherson have apparently also relocated from the city.

[Malankazooie]

 Malankazooie, on 07 July 2022 - 04:29 PM, said:

 Malankazooie, on 05 July 2022 - 06:30 PM, said:

 Malankazooie, on 03 May 2022 - 08:29 PM, said:

 Malankazooie, on 05 March 2022 - 06:50 PM, said:

Brittney Griner (professional basketball player) detained in Russia. Something about having hashish oil in her luggage at the Moscow Airport.

US State Dept. has updated her status as "wrongfully detained."

Her letter to Biden is heart breaking. I hope something can be worked out that will secure her release. I know Blinken and Lavrov will be at the G20 thing this week in Indonesia. Hopefully they can meet to set diplomacy in action that will kick start the process.

She plead guilty in the Russian court today. Not sure what goes on behind the scenes or the admission of guilt significance in the Russian system. Just hoping it is some hollow gesture satisfying some requirement to be released.

Biden administration has offered a Russian arms dealer for Griner and Whelan. Hopefully the exchange happens.

[Cause]

What steps are being taken to end this war?

Russia seems to have wasted their military reputation, gained? A land bridge to crimea, and forced Finland to join nato. They seem to have lost strategically with no option for further gains. How do they continue, and what do they think they can achieve? Turning off the gas will just piss of Europe and hurt their own economy. Though in time they can switch to supplying China it won’t happen overnight.

Ukraine has surprised everyone with how well they have resisted but the fighting is all in their borders. The infrastructure damage is immense. I’m sure the west will suppport financially after the war but can they force a full Russian withdrawal?

The west at this point seems content to supply arms to Ukraine to slowly continue the Russian bleeding but what else?

Is this going to drag out for another 3 months? 6? Years?

It also sadly is losing its shock value and seems to have quickly fallen out of the news.

[Werthead]

 Cause, on 28 July 2022 - 06:32 PM, said:

What steps are being taken to end this war?

Russia seems to have wasted their military reputation, gained? A land bridge to crimea, and forced Finland to join nato. They seem to have lost strategically with no option for further gains. How do they continue, and what do they think they can achieve? Turning off the gas will just piss of Europe and hurt their own economy. Though in time they can switch to supplying China it won’t happen overnight.

Ukraine has surprised everyone with how well they have resisted but the fighting is all in their borders. The infrastructure damage is immense. I’m sure the west will suppport financially after the war but can they force a full Russian withdrawal?

The west at this point seems content to supply arms to Ukraine to slowly continue the Russian bleeding but what else?

Is this going to drag out for another 3 months? 6? Years?

It also sadly is losing its shock value and seems to have quickly fallen out of the news.

The war not being in the news every day isn't quite true: the BBC have a dedicated news page just to the conflict and they have reported one story or another from the front every single day since Day One. NATO, the UK, the US, the Baltic States, Poland, Romania, the Czech Republic and Slovakia are also all taking this conflict incredibly seriously and they see a Russian win as simply not being acceptable, because a Russian win will be followed by a repeat, either in a NATO state (thus triggering WWIII) or in another country like Georgia, Moldova or Kazakhstan. The sheer amount of equipment they are pouring into Ukraine at this point is quite ridiculous. There may not be too many "big ticket" items going in very often, but the simple multiple tons of ammunition going across the border every day are helping keep Ukraine in the fight.

As for the ultimate resolution, I think that's pretty clear: Russia must withdraw, at the absolute minimum, to its February 23rd positions, in return for which Ukraine may offer a peace on the terms they offered early in the conflict. Ukraine will agree not to join NATO and will agree to a series of referendums to determine the future of Crimea and the Donbas territories, overseen by the UN over a 15-year period. Ukraine may also require reparations, although the easiest way to do that is for the World Bank to simply transfer the reparation figure (between $100 and $300 billion) out of the frozen Russian assets it has (currently standing at around $500 billion) without bothering to get Russia's agreement. Then the west can agree to a phased reduction in sanctions as Russia complies with the terms. To be frank, even selling that to the Ukrainians I think is going to be tough. Several entire cities have been razed almost to the ground, they'll be de-mining the country for the next decade and the final death toll is almost certainly going to be (if it's not already) in the six figures.

The only short-to-medium term road to success Russia has is to try to complete the conquest of Donetsk and quickly declare victory there, and then negotiate a peace with Ukraine on more favourable terms to Russia, perhaps even giving up on Kherson and the land bridge as a major concession (since that was only useful when they thought they could take Odesa, which is now implausible), maybe in return for water supplies to Crimea being reinstated alongside other issues. But they keep Luhansk and Donetsk. And I don't think Ukraine is going to accept that. Even if they did, Russia is now immensely aware that it's in a losing race against Ukraine's further weapons reinforcement. When this war ends, Russia will need 5 years at the absolute minimum to rebuild its military to the point where it can even think about trying anything again, and by the end of those five years, Ukraine will probably be equipped with long-range HIMARS, the country will be covered in AA emplacements and it will have a standing army of half a million fully trained up to NATO standards, maybe with a thousand modern tanks and several hundred aircraft.

[Cyphon]

Sorry for dumb question, but Wert how do you know all this? It's not something I connect with you in my head.

[Werthead]

 Cyphon, on 28 July 2022 - 10:17 PM, said:

Sorry for dumb question, but Wert how do you know all this? It's not something I connect with you in my head.

At college I studied Russian history and politics, and that was only a few years after the wall came down. We were literally debating whether it was a good idea or not for Ukraine to give up its nuclear weapons a year or two after it happened. I kept up my knowledge ever since, so when this started coming down (and I mean back in 2014, not just this year), it was something that was already in my wheelhouse.

[Werthead]

North Korea has offered to send 100,000 troops to aid Russia in Ukraine in return for food and energy assistance.

Even Russia seems to be trying to find ways to turn them down. A hundred thousand half-starved North Korean soldiers aren't going to be much use in Ukraine and I'm not sure Russia can equip that many troops at short notice.

[Cause]

Russia recruiting soldiers straight out of prison to repalce the losses. How much longer will this farce go on for before they realize it was a terrible miscalculation.

Russia is going full sunk cost fallacy at this point.

[Mentalist]

oh look, biggest airbase in occupied Crimea exploded for no reason. Thousands of beach-goers are fleeing the coastal resorts and jamming up the Kerch Bridge.

Ukrainian MoD is cheekily denying involvemebnt, but an unnamed source is telling NYT that it was them, and it was a Ukrainian-developed weapon that did it.

Meanwhile, Russians are claiming it was an "accident" (accounts vary if it was due to mishandling fuel or munitions), no equipment was damaged (see here: https://twitter.com/...077182110998528 )

and the only casualties are vacationers from around the base, who were injured/killed by debris and shockwave. But the personnel is totes okay, and not a single plane was damaged.

Happy International Day of the World's Indigenous Peoples, Crimea!

[Malankazooie]

Umm, should Europe be concerned about that nuclear power plant? That's picked up again on the nightly news.

[Garak]

Our government has told family doctors to prescribe iodine pills. Just in case the neighborhood gets ... fallout like.