[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Macros, on 11 May 2022 - 07:44 AM, said:

Time to start prepping and build my bunker then eh?

They'd probably want to avoid directly nuking the UK to avoid retaliation from the UK's nuclear submarines (assuming they can't locate them and take them out, and don't have missile defenses we're unaware of). So in Northern Ireland you'd probably be safe from the initial blast(s). It's the fallout you might want to be concerned about. Not very likely, but you might want to look into local fallout shelters, iodine tablets, and evacuation routes just in case.


'[US] National Intelligence Director [...] Warns [...] Putin Could Take Extreme Steps to Win Ukraine War

[...] "The current trend increases the likelihood [...] Putin will turn to more drastic means, including imposing martial law, reorienting industrial production, or potentially escalatory military actions to free up the resources needed to achieve his objectives as the conflict drags on."

[...] "We are not confident that the fight in the Donbas will effectively end the war[...] We assess President Putin is preparing for prolonged conflict in Ukraine during which he still intends to achieve goals beyond the Donbas."

[...] Russians are starting to see signs that Putin might be secretly putting in the legwork to pull in more resources to make the war effort function beyond the near term[...] Moscow Metro employees have been threatened in recent days that they might be sent to the war in a possible mobilization[...]

The U.S. intelligence community's assessment that Putin intends the war to last for some time could spell disaster ahead. Putin could become more likely to make a miscalculation and resort to using nuclear weapons, [they] warned.

Putin would only "authorize the use of nuclear weapons if he perceived an existential threat to the Russian state," [...] "with tensions this high there is always an enhanced potential for miscalculation—unintended escalation."

"There is not… an imminent potential for Putin to use nuclear weapons," [they] clarified.'

National Intelligence Director Avril Haines Warns Vladimir Putin Could Take Extreme Steps to Win Ukraine War (thedailybeast.com)

[Mentalist]

Aptorian, on 11 May 2022 - 12:47 PM, said:

The fact that it looks like Russia can't win quickly or decisively, is what makes me worried they might use nukes.

Putin was delusional enough to think they could invade Ukraine with out real consequences. Putin might think he can nuke a city like Kyiv, to break Ukraine's morale and get away with it, because it's not a NATO member they're attacking.

China isn't going to attack Russia over some dust up in Europe.

China doesn't want nukes to become normalized. Next thing you know, India and Pakistan will be back at it, and that's right in China's backyard.

So it will absolutely act to behead the Russian decision-making if they start.

Fun fact: in 2013 China became guarantor of Ukraine's security in case of a nuclear strike.
Last thing China wants is a reputation of an unreliable partner.

In any case, Putler has to realise he's losing first. And we're nowhere near that stage RN.

[Macros]

Finland and Sweden look set to formally apply for NATO membership this weekend.

Russia then has the temerity to suggest Finland joining NATO will upset the security of Europe.

......
Ok buddy

[Mentalist]

Macros, on 12 May 2022 - 06:37 PM, said:

Finland and Sweden look set to formally apply for NATO membership this weekend.

Russia then has the temerity to suggest Finland joining NATO will upset the security of Europe.

......
Ok buddy

They're also saying UA joining the EU is also problematic for them now.

Meh.

If we can survive this more focused last_ditch effort to push the UAF out of what's left of Luhans'k Oblast, then in about a month they'll be in for a world of hurt,

[Macros]

And fuck you too Turkey

[Mentalist]

Macros, on 18 May 2022 - 06:54 AM, said:

And fuck you too Turkey

They've got a month to haggle until the NATO summit.

I do not expect this to be a problem in the end.

[Mentalist]

Oil embargo is a PITA

Most likely, the EU will agree to sanction all Russian oil imports that don't come thru the pipes (which is like 40%). So the remaining 60 will need to be sold to 3rp parties, with crappier logistics, and with a bigger discount.

Last week things looked dicey, b/c the orcs broke out of the ruins of Popasna and spread out in 3 directions at once. Took a while to halt them, but now it appears teh fronline's been stabilized again.

Meanwhile UAF resumed their "tussles" to clear the remaining settlements b/w Kharkiv and the Russian border. And, more importantly, they managed to flank the Ruscists N of Kherson, crossing the Inhulets' river, and now they're threatening to cut off roughly a third of the territory they're holding on the Right Bank--provided they can maintain momentum....

[Macros]

Oh man I pray for an encirclement of the Russian forces that leads to a large amount of men surrendering.
And most of the publicly not wanting to go back when an exchange is suggested

[Mentalist]

100 days.

ONE


HUNDRED


FUCKING


DAYS


I'm typing this, and I can still hardly believe it.


Given the snails' pace of both sanctions (oil embargo not kicking in until Dec-Jan) and weapon shipments (4 HIMARS... basically just training equipment), it is becoming increasingly unlikely that UAF will be able to field sufficient reserves to launch a major counter-offensive this summer.

The enemy broke into Severodonets'k and took majority of the city's residential districts (about 2/3s of the city). Yesterday, UAF managed a quick and dirty counter, and now the fighting's in the city center again, and various OSINT suggesting that UAF took back the southern side of the city- about 1/3s of residential areas. This is important, b/c there are still villages SE of the city that are holding out to slow the enemy offensive down and hold ground on the NE bank of Siversky Donets' river. And if they need to withdraw to Lysychans'k across the river, then holding the southern side of the city is important to keep them from being cut off.

Unclear is anything still happening in Kherson, or if the UAF is taking a pause to fortify their gains. But we haven't heard any reports of any additional liberated territory, so it seems the offesive across the Inhulets' had limited success, albeit it was important to get a a bridgehead.

It's very difficult to predict how this is gonna go now. How many more thousands of reservists or conscripts the Ruscists will throw into the meatgrinder? How much more artillery they've got to pound the country into rubble?


Ukraine can't give up; but the question is, how far will sheer resolve take us.

[Mentalist]

It would appear that (for now) Old Europe has put its plans to try to force Zelensky to compromise with Putler on hold. Macron reinforce the promise of extra 6 howitzers (originally voiced by the French MFA a few weeks ago). Remains to be seen if Germany can scrounge up any heavy weapons to give us.

Overall, the rhetoric from the West has been shifting somewhat from "we wanna see UA win" to "we want UA to have strong advantage in the upcoming negotiations". Regrettably (but understandably) the West doesn't really want to deal with the seismic shocks through Russian society should they get totally owned by the UAF. So UA will be getting a drip-feed of heavy weapons to help them stay in the fight, but not enough to really exceed any modest ass-kicking quotas.

Situation's pretty rough in the East, as the Ruscists destroyed (rather, heavily damaged) all 3 bridges to Severodonets'k, making it inaccessible to vehicles. Now supplies have to be either walked over, or brought in across the river. Situation's tough, but not really dire... Yet.

on other fronts, they are pushing N or Kharkiv again, and managed to get enough ground that they can shell the city with artillery again (sorry, Puck).

despite that, UAF is making some counters around Kherson and all along the Right Bank positions (again... We were already within 10 km of the city before in mid-April, before Ruscists brough in a lot more forces and pushed us back), as well as directly W of Izyum, which is a kind of annoying pestering attack close enough to their main staging area that they need to drop their offensive to reinforce there.

I guess things should be decently OK, until the first African/Middle Eastern government starts to topple due to food price hikes. Then the EU will rapidly start having second thoughts.

[Macros]

The west is still buying up on that dirty russian gas so sanctions are hurting third world countries more than Putler alas.

[Mentalist]

Macros, on 17 June 2022 - 07:41 AM, said:

The west is still buying up on that dirty russian gas so sanctions are hurting third world countries more than Putler alas.

He's already turning the valves on the pipes, to try to scare the West.

Not really a heating issue in the midst of summer; but just like in UA, German factories mostly run on gas, which is why setting up new suppliers is pretty crucial.

Egypt, Israel and Cyprus worked out an agreement to build a pipe from the Mediterranean to Europe; but that'll still take some time.

Ironically enough, the fact that the ruble is improving (due to lack of imports, and ongoing flow of dollars and Euros for petrochemicals), Russians are losing out, b/c they make less rubles for domestic consumption--and if they need more for their own budget, they have to print them, increasing inflation.

Russian metal is apparently no longer profitable to export, so their metallurgy oligarchs are asking for bailouts, b/c their metals' price is above market value now, due to increased ruble costs.

In addition, b/c European traders stopped buying some of the petrol byproducts, their refineries have to reduce their production capacities b/c their storage tanks are full!

Which could, ironically enough, lead to shortages of certain types of fuel.

This post has been edited by Mentalist: 18 June 2022 - 02:23 AM

[Mentalist]

Breakthroughs N of Popasna- UAF forced to retreat to outskirts of Lysychans'k, with up to a few hundred cut off in a rearguard action.

Meanwhile, Lithuania is blockading sanctioned goods transfers to Kaliningrad; Ukraine and Moldova get EU candidate status. US giving more HIMARS (the first 4 in UA already), as well as a bunch of patrol boats.

3 Ruscist planes crashing over Russia-2 Sus and today an IL-76. Lack of pilots and/or imported spare parts is starting to pay off.

Situation is worrying in Donbass; some very interesting bits of news circulating about the South, though. Once all that heavy hardware gets to the frontlines, we might see VERY interesting changes on the map...

And for now, Gazprom continues to limit the flow of gas to Europe citing technical issues; basically, forcing the EU to diversify ASAP by showing how unreliable they are. Which is just lovely, b/c Gazprom is basically being stabbed in the gut, repeatedly, by Putler- and then it'll be left to just bleed to death. Which is nice to know, but doesn't exactly help the situation here and now.

[Werthead]

I have to say that one grim question circulating a few weeks back was how the hell Ukraine was going to fend off 900 (!) Russian artillery guns concentrated in the Donbas with just a handful of HIMARS and rocket-propelled artillery, the only things with the range to take the fight to the Russians. The arithmetic looked grim.

Once again, the...questionable tactical nous of the Russian military came to the rescue by putting what appears to be the overwhelming majority of their artillery ammunition into a dozen or so immobile supply dumps, apparently forgetting that satellites are a thing and can see where they are. So rather than need to take out 900 individual targets, you only need to take out twelve.

The net result in the last few days has been a series of titanic explosions. One in Luhansk went off with such ferocity that debris was falling and starting fires 10km away. And suddenly the Russians are reportedly and urgently calling their artillery reserve that they had loaned to Belarus because it's needed elsewhere.

In the meantime that extra-long range artillery, limited though it is, has moved on to pounding command and control centres, targeting commanders and generals (particularly for the breakaway "republics," whose morale is already past rock bottom and on its way to the Earth's core) and generally having a field day whilst Russian artillery is powerless to hit them back, since they outrange them by dozens of miles. The major worry for that new equipment is Russia's newfound confidence in fielding the Su-57 semi-stealth fighter, but the Russians also seem nervous about the PR blowback of losing one of those in combat (especially as they're trying to get China and other countries to buy them).

[Malankazooie]

"He wanted the Finlandization of NATO. He got the NATO-ization of Finland."

Phew. Important speech in front of an important audience, so glad Binden brought in a smooth landing on that line. Didn't hear the whole speech though, just that soundbite, so not sure how the rest of it was.

[Werthead]

Russia has reported a stunning military victory in shooting down it's 1,000th Bayraktar TB2 drone over Ukraine, which is ~550 more Bayraktars than has ever actually been built and between 900 and 930 more Bayraktars than Ukraine has ever fielded.

[Malankazooie]

Malankazooie, on 03 May 2022 - 08:29 PM, said:

Malankazooie, on 05 March 2022 - 06:50 PM, said:

Brittney Griner (professional basketball player) detained in Russia. Something about having hashish oil in her luggage at the Moscow Airport.

US State Dept. has updated her status as "wrongfully detained."

Her letter to Biden is heart breaking. I hope something can be worked out that will secure her release. I know Blinken and Lavrov will be at the G20 thing this week in Indonesia. Hopefully they can meet to set diplomacy in action that will kick start the process.

[Malankazooie]

Malankazooie, on 05 July 2022 - 06:30 PM, said:

Malankazooie, on 03 May 2022 - 08:29 PM, said:

Malankazooie, on 05 March 2022 - 06:50 PM, said:

Brittney Griner (professional basketball player) detained in Russia. Something about having hashish oil in her luggage at the Moscow Airport.

US State Dept. has updated her status as "wrongfully detained."

Her letter to Biden is heart breaking. I hope something can be worked out that will secure her release. I know Blinken and Lavrov will be at the G20 thing this week in Indonesia. Hopefully they can meet to set diplomacy in action that will kick start the process.

She plead guilty in the Russian court today. Not sure what goes on behind the scenes or the admission of guilt significance in the Russian system. Just hoping it is some hollow gesture satisfying some requirement to be released.

[Werthead]

A while back a military blogger was saying that Ukraine would have to hit 10+ ammo depots every day for a good few weeks to halt Russia's advance.

Ukraine said, "okay," and has been doing that ever since. Russia has run out of some types of artillery ammo and has had to pull in reserve stocks from Belarus. Its manpower has also reached the point where it has started drafting in convicts as front line soldiers. Some Russian soldiers are also now refusing to guard ammo depots or vehicle warehouses because they are being zeroed and hit from hundreds of miles behind the lines.

The Ukrainian government has also issued an order to retake the southern costal corridor, from Kherson to Mariupol, but simultaneously has been pouring reinforcements into the Kharkiv and Donbas regions, so Russia seems to be really unsure about where to focus its defences and where to carry out their next offensive, since the Kremlin seems unwilling to commit more regular forces or mobilise more reserves (and simply doesn't have the equipment in storage to supply them anyway).

[Mentalist]

Ruscists are trying to form a new tank and mechanized Corps -- roughly 200 tanks, 400 APC/IFVs, and up to 15k personnel. They are aiming to have this new unit deployed by mid-Aug, from Nizhny Novgorodian Oblast where it's being put together.

As of right now their standing reserves are pretty much tapped out which is why we've mostly seen combat recons coming from the East. They are attempting to try to push out of Izyum again, but they don't have the overwhelming artillery advantage there to be able to blast UAF's positions to rubble, causing a retreat.

Meanwhile, we've been hunting those ammo depots, trying to grind their movement to a halt, to try to shift the initiative, making our own probes all over the South.