[Werthead]

Ukraine has launched a major drone attack on St Petersburg on the opening day of the World Economic Forum. The oil terminal took multiple hits and the Kronstadt naval yards (where arguably the Russian Revolution was kick-started) were attacked, with a corvette heavily damaged.

Recent territory exchanges in Ukraine as mapped by ISW are illuminating:

Dec 2025 - Russia +519 sq km
Jan 2026 - Russia +319
Feb 2026 - Russia +123
Mar 2026 - Russia +23
Apr 2026 - Ukraine + 116
May 2026 - Ukraine +281

Can the trend continue? Interesting to see.

Ukraine has conducted tests of the FP7.X ballistic missile interceptor, its homegrown alternative to Patriot. The interceptor shows promise but will not be deployable at scale until arguably well into 2027. Ukraine now regards Russia's ballistic missiles as its sole remaining major threat.

The Russian Black Sea Fleet Headquarters, aviation division, in Sevastopol has taken a direct missile hit.

St. Petersburg's air defences apparently failed to engage drones during the Ukrainian attack, with only small arms being used to try to down them.

Gas stations in Moscow have started rationing fuel.

The vessel damaged at St. Petersburg has been confirmed as the Steregushchy-class corvette Boikiy, one of the most formidable vessels in the Baltic Fleet. The vessel's superstructure was shown to be ablaze.

With Ukrainian regular military units unable to advance in many sectors due to a lack of manpower or overwhelming Russian defences, these units have developed drone divisions to continue carrying out combat operations. Non-specialist drone units attached to regular formations have been responsible for a large amount of Ukraine's recent drone success.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 03 June 2026 - 05:34 PM

[Werthead]

Oof, Ukrainian forces are making a counter-attack between Dobropillya and Pokrovsk. 1,000-pound JDAM bombs are pummelling entire Russian positions into nothing. These are being air-launched by Su-27s as well, which should be well within Russian AA range, except all of the Russian AA units anywhere near this front have been destroyed.

Multiple gas stations in Donetsk city now saying they are out of fuel and shutting up shop. Simferopol in Crimea is also increasingly cut off, Ukrainian drones showing a "road of death" of burned-out fuel tankers extending around the city.

Clearer footage showing the Boikiy listing in its berth in Kronstadt, still on fire, with dozens of fire engines and hoses spraying water on it, rather ineffectually from the look of it. Kronstadt is famed in Russian history as playing a key role in both the revolutions of 1917, and later the betrayal of the navy by the Bolsheviks who massacred the sailors there (many of them veterans who'd helped the Bolsheviks come to power) in 1921 for demanding better conditions.

Ukraine’s Spalakh drone operators from the 28th Brigade claim to have brought Horlivka under full fire control. The city, located 40km from Ukrainian positions, behind Pokrovsk, has been surrounded by loitering drone units destroying any supplies trying to enter or leave the city. Horlivka is a major supply node for the main Russian offensive effort in Donetsk Oblast.

Russia has banned the reporting of any and all news about Russian supply truck movements in the entire occupied zone.

Russian tankers and truck drivers in Prymorsk have refused to drive any more fuel trucks, pointing to a tanker Ukrainian drones left ablaze near the town.

Moscow, Leningrad, Ryazan, Kursk, Belgorod, Voronezh, Oryol, Novgorod, Samara and Murmansk regions have all introduced fuel rationing.

A Swedish vessel has boarded and captured Caffa, a Russian shadow fleet tanker, reportedly using intelligence gained by Ukraine.

Ukraine's Unmanned Systems have reported 100,000 Russian casualties inflicted since this time last year, with over 350,000 targets struck and 1.65 million combat missions flown.

Hungary has formally withdrawn its veto on Ukraine's EU accession bid.

One of the Russian patrol boats guarding the Kerch Strait Bridge has been hit by drones.

Ukrainian drones on the Lyman front are targeting key logistics routes over the Zherebets River, destroying Russian resupplies and dropping bridges and pontoons supplying the Lyman front. Some excited claims of a major Russian reversal on this front but nothing confirmed yet.

Russian milblogger Rybar claims that Ukrainian reinforcements have arrived south of Mala Tokmachka and are now pressing hard to recapture more of the N-08 highway. Russian retreats on this front had eased after additional reinforcements arrived, but Ukraine is pressing hard and still hoping to retake at least Kamyansk.

Rubio has confirmed that Ukraine has achieved significant successes and gains in the last few weeks.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 04 June 2026 - 06:29 PM

[Werthead]

President Zelensky has sent a letter to Putin. It's very impressive reading.

I suspect Putin will not read it.

[the broken]

Hmm. Well, I'd take that deal.

The only way Russia can win now is if Ukraine can't staff their lines. Doesn't seem like that's happening unless there's some military disaster or there have been massive undisclosed casualties. They're not going to run out of money or gear as long as the EU is behind them, even if the US sits back. Russia is not going to militarily lose, but an economic victory is looking more and more likely now.

Quote

Moscow, Leningrad, Ryazan, Kursk, Belgorod, Voronezh, Oryol, Novgorod, Samara and Murmansk regions have all introduced fuel rationing.

Interesting. Lot of people thought the Strait of Hormuz would be a big economic boon for Russia, doesn't seem like it has worked out for them. Shadow fleet is finally being cracked down on and they're losing hard to replace refineries.

[Mentalist]

They are making surplus, but there's nuance.

1) The majority of revenue comes from petro companies paying natural resource taxes when extracting- so what matters the most to the MoF and the budget is the amount being extracted, times the market price. And hitting the refineries and pumping statiions (as well as burning down storage tanks) ends up reducing their capacity to extract oil. There's reports that some of the older, least profitable wells are already being capped, and unlike the Gulf, once you cap these, there's no restoring them. Western Siberian oil deposits are a mess.

They were able to sell more oil, but that money doesn't go to the MoF directly, either- even state-owned companies like Rosneft and GazpromNeft are formally distinct. And their CEOs won't be carrying big bags of cash to the MoF either (though some other oligarchs, including metallurgy magnates, have done this earlier in the year)

2) Most importantly, their budget deficit's enormous, and the oil windfall can't cover it, as long as they maintain a strong ruble. And they keep doing this, in order to try to reign in inflation. So the actual profits being brought in aren't doing nearly as much to plug the budget deficit as everyone hoped/feared.

trump's Hormuz stunt is slowing down muscovite economic decline a tad, but it's nowhere near enough (yet) to shift the trend.

[Tsundoku]

Werthead, on 05 June 2026 - 12:30 AM, said:

President Zelensky has sent a letter to Putin. It's very impressive reading.

I suspect Putin will not read it.

That letter was absolute diplomatic badassery.

[Werthead]

It is absolutely possible that Russia will militarily lose the war. Starving all the units on the front of food, fuel and ammunition tends to inhibit their fighting effectiveness, especially when Ukraine can use aerial and ground-based robots to actually storm lines instead, as is starting to happen.

Zelensky's letter I think was an attempt to have the war end now with something Putin can sell to the Russian people as vaguely victory and ensure his own survival. Otherwise what happens next could be more dangerous, if Putin sees the Russian position in Ukraine collapse quickly, that could make him panic and do something extremely unwise. The "boiling the frog slowly" tactic has been very successful, suddenly dropping the frog into a flamethrower might can an unwise escalation.

Extraordinary claim that 1,391 Russian supply and refuelling vehicles have been destroyed or disabled in just three days around Chernihivka, the primary supply node for the entire Zaporizhzhia front. This is the final distribution centre for supplies headed to the front, and it's now basically under drone siege.

Controversy as American defence company Red Cat, which had partnered with Ukrainian sea drone company Magura to produce a US copy of the Magura V7, has put its own version (identical in every way) into production. Red Cat now claims their version was built and designed in the US with no input from Ukrainian companies, which is clearly bullcrud.

Citizens in Donetsk city reporting that markets and supermarkets are rapidly running out of food as people panic-buy. Truck drivers, ordinary civilian ones, are too terrified to go out as they fear being hit by drones. Donetsk has a current population of around 870,000.

Resupply trucks are being ordered to disperse and no longer sit in parking lots in groups anywhere in the occupation zone. This may not be practical in all cases, but where trucks bunch together, they invariably get a visit from Ukrainian drones.

A huge hit on the Sea of Azov ports this morning. A huge Ukrainian drone attack destroyed five Russian cargo ships carrying stolen Ukrainian grain out of the ports. Russian air defences were overwhelmed and unable to intercept the drones. Ukraine being able to blockade Russia from exporting its stolen food supplies would be a huge gamechanger as well.

Novoplatonivka has been retaken. The Russians confirmed taking the village after a long and gruelling combat operation. A Ukrainian ground assault robot entered the village and promptly cleaned up half the Russian units, with Ukrainian infantry neutralising the rest and confirming the settlement was back under their control within a few days.

Ukraine has confirmed it is receiving near-realtime battlefield satellite imagery, sometimes hitting targets within 15 minutes of it being identified on satellite.

[Cause]

Werthead, on 05 June 2026 - 02:38 PM, said:

Zelensky's letter I think was an attempt to have the war end now with something Putin can sell to the Russian people as vaguely victory and ensure his own survival. Otherwise what happens next could be more dangerous, if Putin sees the Russian position in Ukraine collapse quickly, that could make him panic and do something extremely unwise. The "boiling the frog slowly" tactic has been very successful, suddenly dropping the frog into a flamethrower might can an unwise escalation.

That letter was meant for everyone but Putin. Putin can hardly be unaware of the letters contents and if you want to let him claim victory and save face you would do it privately. Its a moral boost for Ukraine, and I am sure its circulating in Russia and maybe some Russians wont have know how bad the situation is but I'm not really sure it does anything else. Putin isn't Trump but there is no way for him to read that letter and not feel anger.

I suppose its too escalatory still, even with the situation, but I am surprised we haven't seen some nuclear tests or something similar. I still dont think nukes can be used, they are just too dangerous and the whole world will freak out but it seems the ultimate we better sit down and talk message before Russia erodes too dar.

[Mentalist]

Cause, on 05 June 2026 - 03:24 PM, said:

Werthead, on 05 June 2026 - 02:38 PM, said:

Zelensky's letter I think was an attempt to have the war end now with something Putin can sell to the Russian people as vaguely victory and ensure his own survival. Otherwise what happens next could be more dangerous, if Putin sees the Russian position in Ukraine collapse quickly, that could make him panic and do something extremely unwise. The "boiling the frog slowly" tactic has been very successful, suddenly dropping the frog into a flamethrower might can an unwise escalation.

That letter was meant for everyone but Putin. Putin can hardly be unaware of the letters contents and if you want to let him claim victory and save face you would do it privately. Its a moral boost for Ukraine, and I am sure its circulating in Russia and maybe some Russians wont have know how bad the situation is but I'm not really sure it does anything else. Putin isn't Trump but there is no way for him to read that letter and not feel anger.

I suppose its too escalatory still, even with the situation, but I am surprised we haven't seen some nuclear tests or something similar. I still dont think nukes can be used, they are just too dangerous and the whole world will freak out but it seems the ultimate we better sit down and talk message before Russia erodes too dar.

China REALLY doesn't want nukes to become normalized. And they got putler on a tight leash, b/c if they were to tell their manufacturers to stop selling him.... everything, his war machine, and domestic consumer economy would choke and die.

Short of an absolutely existential threat, he won't try it. Like, if the southern front was to collapse and UAF would march into Crimea, he could make that threat before they laid siege to Sevastopol; anything short of that, I don't see it. muscovite public opinion would even swallow the "loss" of Donbass, probably. But not Yalta and Sevastopol.

[Werthead]

Ukraine has revealed how it destroyed several Russian jets in hardened military hangers. They waited until someone opened the doors and then flew some drones in. That's it.

Russian drone operators sitting under shelters at Donetsk Airport flying their drones out, hoping the Ukrainians don't nip their drones in through the opening whilst it's vulnerable. This has happened multiple times. Apparently their suggestion they stop using Donetsk Airport as a base has been rejected by the Russian military command as being too sensible.

Ukraine has hit St. Petersburg again, hitting additional targets around the city and on Kronstadt Island.

[Werthead]

Rationing of staple items in Crimea, like rice and bread, has begun. Ukraine has hit oil storage facilities across Crimea. Fuel sales in parts of Crimea are being rationed at 20 litres or less per vehicle.

Russia's 15th Naval Arsenal in the Leningrad Region was hit by Ukrainian drones and left almost completely obscured from satellite imagery by burning fires.

Electrical stations in Donetsk Oblast have also been hit.

Ukraine's 3rd Special Operations Unit has declared fire control over the Chonhar-Melitopol resupply route. Chonhar is the crossing point from mainland Ukraine to Crimea.

The Antipinsky Refinery in Tyumen, Russia, 2,000km from Russia, took a very heavy hit.

[Chance]

Cause, on 05 June 2026 - 03:24 PM, said:

Werthead, on 05 June 2026 - 02:38 PM, said:

Zelensky's letter I think was an attempt to have the war end now with something Putin can sell to the Russian people as vaguely victory and ensure his own survival. Otherwise what happens next could be more dangerous, if Putin sees the Russian position in Ukraine collapse quickly, that could make him panic and do something extremely unwise. The "boiling the frog slowly" tactic has been very successful, suddenly dropping the frog into a flamethrower might can an unwise escalation.

That letter was meant for everyone but Putin. Putin can hardly be unaware of the letters contents and if you want to let him claim victory and save face you would do it privately. Its a moral boost for Ukraine, and I am sure its circulating in Russia and maybe some Russians wont have know how bad the situation is but I'm not really sure it does anything else. Putin isn't Trump but there is no way for him to read that letter and not feel anger.

I suppose its too escalatory still, even with the situation, but I am surprised we haven't seen some nuclear tests or something similar. I still dont think nukes can be used, they are just too dangerous and the whole world will freak out but it seems the ultimate we better sit down and talk message before Russia erodes too dar.

Old news but the last I heard there actually were several impressive demolitions of launch sites during the last few sets of nuclear tests, don't think they'll do those until they hare 100% they actually work the last few were more comical than intimidating.

This post has been edited by Chance: 07 June 2026 - 08:46 PM

[Mentalist]

Election in Armenia today. Current PM, Pashinyan won. Pro-Moscow businessman who tried to pull the Georgian scenario got less than 30 percent of the vote, making it unlikely that they'll try protests and a moscow-backed coup. Which means the pro-EU agenda is going to continue, with Pashinyan gearing up to leave the Eurasian Economic Union and the CSTO

UAF hit the Chonhar bridge crossing into Crimea, and the Dzhankoy checkpoint between the mainland and the peninsula was closed today. Meaning, the (already limited) logistics all have to go through Perekop now (which is the sole isthmus connecting Crimea by solid land. It is on the NW side of the peninsula, so away from the Azov Sea). Naturally, Crimeans started hoarding essential grocery staples, leading to rationing and shortages in some stores.

RN UAF has hit the oil storage base at Grushevaya Balka (just outside Novorossiysk) again. Yesterday they hit the big oil depo at Ust-Labinsk, also in Krasnodar Krai. Clearly, they are trying to make sure crimeans don't get any easy fuel access.

Incidentally, the airport at Sochi has been closed for almost 3 days now; thousands of vacationers (the Black Sea coastline in Krasnodar Krai is the only real domestic vacation spot the muscovites have) are stuck now. So that's nice.

This post has been edited by Mentalist: 08 June 2026 - 12:01 AM

[Cyphon]

Mad that people are holidaying in the Crimea.

[Abyss]

Correct me if i'm wrong, but the endgame here seems to come down to only two possiblities,
1) a massive concession by Ukraine so Putin can claim 'victory'; or
2) Putin 'ascends' and whoever takes over in Russia blames everything on him.

Am i missing a realistic third option? Military victory by either side seems impossible because Ukrainian tech/training = Russian numbers, and no foreign influence is going to pressure either side into anything,

[Mentalist]

Ukraine is aiming at economic exhaustion that converts into military setbacks for muscovy.

Given recent trends, it's realistic, unless China starts to directly bankroll putler's ongoing budget woes.

[Cause]

I dont see an alternative but Crimea is Ukrainian, mostly everyone who lives there is Ukrainian. My understanding is that the majority of Crimea residents still prefer to be part of Ukraine. Ukraine seems to be in the unfortunate situation in that laying siege to Crimea they are laying siege to their own citizens. No one will die from having to ration gas but I'm curious if how this is playing in the propaganda war.

[Mentalist]

Cause, on 08 June 2026 - 02:53 PM, said:

I dont see an alternative but Crimea is Ukrainian, mostly everyone who lives there is Ukrainian. My understanding is that the majority of Crimea residents still prefer to be part of Ukraine. Ukraine seems to be in the unfortunate situation in that laying siege to Crimea they are laying siege to their own citizens. No one will die from having to ration gas but I'm curious if how this is playing in the propaganda war.

Bolded part is debatable. While most people there had Ukrainian citizenship in 2014, there's been a lot of resettlement since.
Not to mention that the native population (Crimean Tatars) has been displaced from the peninsula in several waves since the 1750s. They certainly don't want to be part of a muscovite state.

At this particular point, an advance to reach the Azov Sea Coast and break into northern Crimea seems highly improbable; however, one thing we know is that when wars of attrition do end up reaching a breaking point, things can unravel very rapidly.

It is generally accepted that putler won't declare any additional mobilization until after the "election" in late Sept; this gives UAF roughly 3 and a half months to inflict sufficient damage to the orc frontline to try to shift the balance.

[Werthead]

Some reports that Russian forces are withdrawing from the Kinburn Spit. 337th Regiment units on the spit have been without food, fuel or ammunition for weeks and are withdrawing whilst they are still physically able. Very interesting to see if Ukraine tries to seize the ground behind them. They've made several attempts to do so as a successful Ukrainian assault via the spit into the rear of Russian forces in Kherson Oblast has been a nightmare scenario for the Russians since late 2022*. This also likely means Russian light artillery pieces that can (almost) reach Odesa, and drone units that certainly can, may have been withdrawn as well. How far they withdraw is also interesting as it may mean the complete removal of all Russian forces from Mykolaiv Oblast.

Russian civilian rail connections to Crimea were halted overnight after heavy attacks on Russian rail infrastructure.

A French aircraft engaged and destroyed a drone that crossed into Latvian airspace. Unclear if this was a Russian or Ukrainian drone.

ISW now assesses the war has moved into a new strategic phase, possibly the first shift since the move from maneuver warfare and large-scale troop movements in 2022 to grinding conflict with an increasingly heavy drone component in 2023-25. Their view is that the Ukrainian interdiction of Russian GLOCs (ground lines of communication) will make any large-scale Russian troop movements difficult to untenable. However, it remains to be seen if Ukraine can now translate its mid-range dominance to retaking territory. They assess that Ukraine has begun using its own aircraft and armoured vehicles (and robots for that matter) to support battlefield advances in a way we haven't seen Russia able to do, but so far only on a limited scale.

Unconfirmed reports, mostly limited to the more excitable bloggers, of a Ukrainian breakthrough near Bolshemykhailivka, heaving south towards Sosnivka and Berezove. Not seeing much confirmation of that at the moment.

Perun's latest video on the mid-range strike campaign is, as usual, excellent.

Abyss, on 08 June 2026 - 01:49 PM, said:

Correct me if i'm wrong, but the endgame here seems to come down to only two possiblities,
1) a massive concession by Ukraine so Putin can claim 'victory'; or
2) Putin 'ascends' and whoever takes over in Russia blames everything on him.

Am i missing a realistic third option? Military victory by either side seems impossible because Ukrainian tech/training = Russian numbers, and no foreign influence is going to pressure either side into anything,

Military victory is certainly more possible than it was for Ukraine a few months ago.

A potential Ukrainian strategy is total dominance of mid-range and long-range resupply routes, starving units on the front until they have no choice but to withdraw, surrender in extremis, rendering them totally combat-ineffectual. Ukrainian unmanned systems can then storm front line positions and secure for a Ukrainian infantry or mechanised assault, hopefully with limited or no casualties. Then roll forwards and rinse and repeat. Ukrainian mine-clearance systems are now hugely superior to what they had in 2023, they have tens of thousands of ground-combat robots, and obviously millions of aerial drones, along with increasing conventional air dominance as well (allowing for the mass-use of glide bombs on Russian positions).

The front is huge, though, so it's unclear if Ukraine can deliver such operations on a large scale. But what they could to is target a weak point in the lines where they do not risk being outflanked and try to break through there. The Kinburn Spit is a possible location*, as from there they could make Russian positions along the Dnipro mouth untenable. Once Russian forces have pulled back from there, Ukrainian forces can cross the river mouth and resupply into the land corridor itself. Russian units would have to fall back to Crimea or north-westwards, allowing Ukrainian forces to reach the Sea of Azov and totally cut off Crimea from Russian mainland control. Russian defences in the area are questionable, with perhaps limited good options for Russian defenses all the way back to Melitopol and Mariupol, at which point the Russian line could start to unravel.

It's probably unrealistic that can happen quickly. A lot of it may depend on psychology; we're already seeing chaos in Dontesk because truck drivers are refusing to go on supply runs not because it's likely they'll be hit by drones, but just because the stories of drone strikes are so incredibly common and scary, they're just refusing to comply. Once the narrative takes hold that it's game over, Russian units might just say F-this and leave. And, based on Russian history, they might not stop until they've reached the Kremlin.

*The Kinburn Spit is marshy and not really suitable for large-scale mechanised assaults, so an invading force would have to use drones and infantry to fight onto the Kinburn Peninsula itself, secure resupply routes (difficult in the face of Russian dug-in defences) and then advance again, so not easy, but perhaps doable if the Russian forces in the area are in retreat due to lack of supplies).

This post has been edited by Werthead: 08 June 2026 - 06:06 PM

[Mentalist]

Yeah, I have biiiig doubts about a large-scale river crossing. We've seen UAF try this with Krynky, and I don't think that's seen as a particularly successful op, in terms of casualty ratios.