[Maark Abbott]

Werthead, on 04 October 2022 - 01:23 PM, said:

More than 700,000 Russian men are reported to have left Russia in the last fortnight to avoid conscription. The shock to the Russian economy that has caused is going to be huge.

Someone in a discord server I am not in but know members of had the letter. Sounds like he was far from the only one getting the hell out of dodge.

[Tiste Simeon]

Saw some videos of dudes deliberately breaking their legs to avoid drafting. Nasty stuff!

[Maark Abbott]

I guess for them it's that or get thrown into what is effectively a meat grinder and have their life literally thrown away.

[Cause]

I wonder how many conscript units will just surrender first chance they get. May need to bring back commissars to keep them in line.

[Tsundoku]

What world is Elon Musk living in? Because it sure as fuck isn't the same as the rest of us.

https://www.news.com...bbab3a29c800e11

[Werthead]

Hoo boy. Sounds like infighting has broken out in Putin's upper circles. Patrushev, the very hawkish and somewhat bizarre conspiracy theorist (he has a psychic on retainer) who has Putin's ear in the inner circle, has apparently started campaigning for Prigozhin (the head of Wagner) to be fired or possibly even eliminated, as he has apparently broken their long-standing agreement not to talk about Wagner as an unofficial tool of the Russian military.

Prigozhin has also been publicly disgruntled about how things are going, and his PR guy Slobodenyuk has been calling for Shoigu to be fired. A Rosgvardia unit loyal to Putin has arrested Slobodenyuk, one of whom's Telegram channels has publicly called for the execution of Lavrov and Peskov as traitors. Interestingly this did not go through the FSB, which Putin continues to blame for intelligence failures prior to the war (the FSB insiders maintain they gave accurate intelligence and Putin ignored them).

Kadyrov has joined Prigozhin in calling for a change in direction, and will likely not be impressed by these later power moves (Putin has given him a field promotion, possibly to alleviate that issue). Prigozhin's own men, loyal to him personally, are currently fighting hard in Bukhat, one of the few areas where Russia has had recent (if modest success). Kadyrov commands a very large and personally loyal military, and has kept that military on-side with rewards, keeping them out of the worst of the fighting, and ensuring they know he has their backs and is only working with Putin out of personal loyalty from the end of the civil war. If Prigozhin and Kadyrov feel they've been betrayed, they have significant power and resources to stop fighting, pull their troops out of Ukraine and start a civil war.

It's also worth noting that Prigozhin has garnered some popular support amongst the wider Russian military in Ukraine, condemning poor equipment, conditions and far too late reinforcements. If Wagner were to go off-reservation or withdraw, it's possible other Russian units would follow.

This argument on how the war might end with Russian forces simply turning on one another, even if Putin could somehow ride it out, is interesting, although I'm not sure 100% convincing.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 06 October 2022 - 03:15 PM

[Abyss]

Werthead, on 06 October 2022 - 03:06 PM, said:

Hoo boy. Sounds like infighting has broken out in Putin's upper circles. Patrushev, the very hawkish and somewhat bizarre conspiracy theorist (he has a psychic on retainer) who has Putin's ear in the inner circle, has apparently started campaigning for Prigozhin (the head of Wagner) to be fired or possibly even eliminated, as he has apparently broken their long-standing agreement not to talk about Wagner as an unofficial tool of the Russian military....

Is this the psychic?

Spoiler

[Werthead]

Abyss, on 06 October 2022 - 03:13 PM, said:

Is this the psychic?

Entirely possible!

Apparently the psychic alerted him to a plot by the United States to destroy Russia after he "listened in" to Madeleine Albright's dreams.

[Abyss]

Werthead, on 06 October 2022 - 03:43 PM, said:

Abyss, on 06 October 2022 - 03:13 PM, said:

Is this the psychic?

Entirely possible!

Apparently the psychic alerted him to a plot by the United States to destroy Russia after he "listened in" to Madeleine Albright's dreams.

now i'm picturing a whole Cobra Commander v Serpentor thing between Putin and Patrushev.

[QuickTidal]

Abyss, on 06 October 2022 - 04:24 PM, said:

Werthead, on 06 October 2022 - 03:43 PM, said:

Abyss, on 06 October 2022 - 03:13 PM, said:

Is this the psychic?

Entirely possible!

Apparently the psychic alerted him to a plot by the United States to destroy Russia after he "listened in" to Madeleine Albright's dreams.

now i'm picturing a whole Cobra Commander v Serpentor thing between Putin and Patrushev.

The Serpentor toy was so cool, with the gold snake glider.

[Mentalist]

Werthead, on 06 October 2022 - 03:06 PM, said:

Hoo boy. Sounds like infighting has broken out in Putin's upper circles. Patrushev, the very hawkish and somewhat bizarre conspiracy theorist (he has a psychic on retainer) who has Putin's ear in the inner circle, has apparently started campaigning for Prigozhin (the head of Wagner) to be fired or possibly even eliminated, as he has apparently broken their long-standing agreement not to talk about Wagner as an unofficial tool of the Russian military.

Prigozhin has also been publicly disgruntled about how things are going, and his PR guy Slobodenyuk has been calling for Shoigu to be fired. A Rosgvardia unit loyal to Putin has arrested Slobodenyuk, one of whom's Telegram channels has publicly called for the execution of Lavrov and Peskov as traitors. Interestingly this did not go through the FSB, which Putin continues to blame for intelligence failures prior to the war (the FSB insiders maintain they gave accurate intelligence and Putin ignored them).

Kadyrov has joined Prigozhin in calling for a change in direction, and will likely not be impressed by these later power moves (Putin has given him a field promotion, possibly to alleviate that issue). Prigozhin's own men, loyal to him personally, are currently fighting hard in Bukhat, one of the few areas where Russia has had recent (if modest success). Kadyrov commands a very large and personally loyal military, and has kept that military on-side with rewards, keeping them out of the worst of the fighting, and ensuring they know he has their backs and is only working with Putin out of personal loyalty from the end of the civil war. If Prigozhin and Kadyrov feel they've been betrayed, they have significant power and resources to stop fighting, pull their troops out of Ukraine and start a civil war.

It's also worth noting that Prigozhin has garnered some popular support amongst the wider Russian military in Ukraine, condemning poor equipment, conditions and far too late reinforcements. If Wagner were to go off-reservation or withdraw, it's possible other Russian units would follow.

This argument on how the war might end with Russian forces simply turning on one another, even if Putin could somehow ride it out, is interesting, although I'm not sure 100% convincing.

I don't see anyone pulling out any time soon, tbh. Depends whether UAF can continue the advances. RN the orcs are spreading panic about another axis of attack in Zaporizhya Obast'
But they've been crying wolf regularly about every section of the front, so I remain skeptical.
It would appear that the front around Beryslav is somewhat stabilized atm, as UAF are mopping up the territory they've regained. Would've liked to see a further push, but who knows. News about the recapture of Snihurivka were, (once again) premature.


Overall, the situation is on the upswing, but remains tense.

[Macros]

2 guys sailed the straight to Alaska to seek asylum to avoid the draft

[Werthead]

Kirill has asked the clergy and the faithful to pray for the health of Putin for two days.

Huh.

[Gorefest]

Well, he has been rumoured for some time now to have cancer and/or Parkinsons and/or who knows what else. It was speculated that the Ukraine invasion was a last ditch attempt to cement his name in Russian history or the signs of a deteriorating mind.

[Mentalist]

Werthead, on 06 October 2022 - 09:33 PM, said:

Kirill has asked the clergy and the faithful to pray for the health of Putin for two days.

Huh.

He's turning 70 tomorrow, and they have the weekend to celebrate that.

And they'll probably use the church services to hand out some more conscription notices.

[Werthead]

Gorefest, on 06 October 2022 - 09:43 PM, said:

Well, he has been rumoured for some time now to have cancer and/or Parkinsons and/or who knows what else. It was speculated that the Ukraine invasion was a last ditch attempt to cement his name in Russian history or the signs of a deteriorating mind.

This reminds me of how Gadaffi and/or Saddam and/or Bin Laden were always about 3 days from dying of natural causes. Those rumours with Putin have always felt like wishful thinking (even granting that some of the people waiting to succeed him are far more hardline).

A Russian friend told me that in Russia there is more of a stigma to turning 70 though, they see it like maybe someone in the US or Europe turning 80 or even 85: good going but you might not have too long left. That's always seemed odd (Putin has access to the best doctors in the country, obviously) but the average lifespan in Russia is significantly below what it is elsewhere. Also, one of Putin's friends seemingly died of old age at just 74 fairly recently.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 06 October 2022 - 10:46 PM

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

'Russians Terrified as Putin Hunkers Down in Nuclear Bunker

For the first time, Russians are starting to believe that their isolated and out-of-touch leader really could launch a nuclear weapon.

[...] critics say he spends more and more of his time isolated deep inside nuclear bunkers.'


What does he do there? Pray? Lounge? Host secret gladiatorial combat / human testing (that he likes to watch)? Or more likely, I'd guess: war games, 'simulations'... rehearsing for nuclear armageddon?

If he really is devout, he'll have to get absolved of his sins before dying in a retaliatory strike. So he'll have to be able to list all his sins very quickly. Wonder if he's been rehearsing with a timer, priest no doubt already selected...


'[...] One thing is clear: Putin has a wide choice of bunkers to retreat to. One of his favorite hideaways is in the Altai mountains. Any taxi driver in the remote region of Ongudaysky near the border with Mongolia will show you the way to “Putin’s bunker” or Altayskoye Podvorye. During the pandemic, residents [saw ...] the presidential helicopter seen regularly in the air over the mountains. Locals talk of a giant underground bunker where all Putin’s family members, and Gazprom and Kremlin employees, could hide from radiation in case of a nuclear attack[...]

Another famous hiding place is almost 1,000 miles away from Moscow in the republic of Bashkortostan, in the southern Ural mountains. [...] immense network of bunkers [...] Western spies have suggested the huge underground complex could house between 100,000 and 300,000 people[...]

[...] “I am sure our generals are capable of bombing Kyiv and Washington with nuclear torpedoes and bombs. I say that because I know the Russian military well—they will obey any of Putin’s orders and there is hardly anything that could stop this disaster at this point.”'

Russians Terrified by Putin’s Bunker Mentality as He Turns 70 With His Finger on the Nuclear Button

[Mentalist]

So, uhhh, Crimean Bridge is on fire. Road portion collapsed into water

Happy 1st day of your 71st year, you piece of KGB dropout shit.

[Chance]

Humm...that bridge is kind of important and it looks like half of it is busted?

Azath Vitr (D, on 07 October 2022 - 11:00 PM, said:

What does he do there? Pray? Lounge? Host secret gladiatorial combat / human testing (that he likes to watch)? Or more likely, I'd guess: war games, 'simulations'... rehearsing for nuclear armageddon?

I think its a bit easier to figure than that...it involves copious amounts of white powder and young athletes.

This post has been edited by Chance: 08 October 2022 - 06:11 AM

[worry]

The pommel horse?