[Werthead]

Mentalist's take on this is much better-informed than mine (trying to parse WTF is going on in Russia from the UK is tough at the best of times, even for those of us who've been studying it on and off for 20+ years).

It is interesting that, by far, the most virulent protests have blown up in Dagestan today. There's news footage of recruiters and policemen being chased away from trying to recruit groups of young men by large crowds of protesters, and there's queues of cars at the Dagestani borders with Georgia and Azerbaijan that are so long they're easily visible from space. It also looks like Dagestan may have lost more troops in Ukraine already than any other group (I thought it was Buryatia, but the figures are not very detailed) so they are very angry about the situation.

[Mentalist]

Werthead, on 25 September 2022 - 08:03 PM, said:

Mentalist's take on this is much better-informed than mine (trying to parse WTF is going on in Russia from the UK is tough at the best of times, even for those of us who've been studying it on and off for 20+ years).

It is interesting that, by far, the most virulent protests have blown up in Dagestan today. There's news footage of recruiters and policemen being chased away from trying to recruit groups of young men by large crowds of protesters, and there's queues of cars at the Dagestani borders with Georgia and Azerbaijan that are so long they're easily visible from space. It also looks like Dagestan may have lost more troops in Ukraine already than any other group (I thought it was Buryatia, but the figures are not very detailed) so they are very angry about the situation.

They are not letting the cops detain other protesters. They are threatening to block roads and set stuff on fire if protesters are not released.

And they started a flashmob burning VVH's portraits.
the governor of Dagestan said they're going to "slow down" mobilization.

I have a feeling the Iranian example is really resonating with the women of Dagestan RN... Which isn't exactly something you could've counted on. Iranian protests (not ready to call it revolution yet) could be the "Black Swan" that triggers some interesting things in Russia's Muslim communities-- since in general, Moscow has been keeping a very tight leash on their religious leaders, making sure there's no anti-war religious rhetoric getting through.

This could get very interesting.

This post has been edited by Mentalist: 25 September 2022 - 09:01 PM

[D'rek]

re: the national fracture idea, I also think there's perhaps something to be said for how the other nations of the world nowadays tend to just plain not want to let that happen. Weren't there several regions of Afghanistan that are dominated by some specific ethnic groups which operated basically autonomously for many years in the last decade, but the US and UN kept on wanting it to become one unified Afghan government again, no one ever really brought up the idea of just letting those regions become new countries. Same with Somaliland, Kurdistan, Azad Kashmir, and all those would-be-countries like Transnistria that have 1 or 2 UN countries recognizing them for political reasons but no others. There doesn't seem to be much political will to officially recognize any new countries emerging from national break-up?

So even if, I dunno, the Mokshas people tried to split off from Russia and really did start autonomously managing their area with their a part of the military joining them, etc, I'm not sure the rest of the world would give them any recognition, and prefer to keep waiting until there was a "new" Russian government with the same borders as today.

[Werthead]

I've seen one notion that maybe people are moving naturally towards wanting more local control and smaller countries may become the normal: the UK could easily lose Scotland and Northern Ireland (maybe Wales on a longer timescale), Spain is hanging onto Catalan with difficulty, the United States is becoming so polarised and fractured that splitting into two (maybe more) nations may be inevitable on a timescale of decades, and even China has enough regional differences that it breaking apart, although unlikely in the short to medium term, is certainly not impossible.

A new Russian recruit has shot dead the leader of the local draft committee in Ust-Ilimsk in Siberia. The protests in Dagestan are really kicking off. The Duma seems divided on whether to close the borders or not.

Both Kazakhstan and Serbia, two relatively Russian-friendly countries, have said they will not recognise the referendums in Donbas and they have no legitimacy.

[Lady Bliss]

Does anyone else wonder if that horrible school shooting in Russia by a guy wearing nazi propaganda wasn’t a sick attempt to rally Russians against the war of “nazism” in the Ukraine? Sadly I wouldn’t put it past Putin to go that far…

This post has been edited by Lady Bliss: 26 September 2022 - 05:09 PM

[Cyphon]

Fracturing of states is never going to be approved by any dominant international power as its a precedent that would bite themselves too much.

I wonder if the desire for greater self determination is a corollary of digital/tech/comms allowing 'better' governance across wider geographies which people dislike being ruled from a distance from, a long with the resulting increasing of transparency limited tradtional state responses to this ad-reaction.

[Malankazooie]

Nightly news coverage of protests in Russia. Could this be Pitler's undoing?

[Mentalist]

Malankazooie, on 26 September 2022 - 11:49 PM, said:

Nightly news coverage of protests in Russia. Could this be Pitler's undoing?

Not holding my breath until there's a total frontline collapse, and UAF takes back some of its pre-Feb 24th territory, making it impossible to deny that the war's going backwards.

We're still quite a ways off from that happening.

[Chance]

Russia likely having blowing up North Stream in a temper tantrum, to claim force majeure sounds interesting or insane depending on your perspective.

A year ago I would have said it was the plot to a poorly thought out tv-series.

A less "civilized" group of nation than the EU would likely have retaliated or treated that as an act of war. Reasonable people like the EU should probably just lend those Ukrainains a hundred or two modern MBT's.

This post has been edited by Chance: 27 September 2022 - 02:31 PM

[Aptorian]

I would expect it was the other way around.

That some third party intentionally damaged the pipeline to prevent Denmark and other countries from being tempted to make deals with Russia when it gets really bad during the winter.

If there's no gas, there's no reason to end the war and pressure Ukraine to make a deal with Russia.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

'Russian Draftees Told to Use Wives’ Tampons for First Aid

[...] Video [...] shows a staffer at a military base in Altai Krai barking at a crowd of draftees that they are responsible for acquiring their own first aid supplies. “Men, just don’t laugh, ask your wives, girlfriends or mothers for sanitary pads. The cheapest pads, plus the cheapest tampons. You know what the tampons are for? Just put them straight into bullet wounds…” she says, urging them to ask their relatives for money to purchase anything they need.'

Russian Draftees Told to Borrow Wives’ Tampons for Battlefield First Aid

[Werthead]

Looks like Ukrainian breakthroughs on the line all around Lyman. The town is almost completely cut off. I think Lyman is where they've been concentrating reinforcements for the last few weeks, so losing it would be a big hit.

[Chance]

Aptorian, on 27 September 2022 - 04:48 PM, said:

I would expect it was the other way around.

That some third party intentionally damaged the pipeline to prevent Denmark and other countries from being tempted to make deals with Russia when it gets really bad during the winter.

If there's no gas, there's no reason to end the war and pressure Ukraine to make a deal with Russia.

While that would be an incredibly cool and calculated move I guess the risks involved in being found out would outway any potential gain.

Still why not the CIA has done stranger things and the Ukrainians if they could pull it off would be motivated to try.

Still I'd bet on russian incompetence and petulant tantrums any day

Betting on russian incompetence has been something of a sure thing recently.

This post has been edited by Chance: 27 September 2022 - 06:24 PM

[Werthead]

Looks like the formal annexation will take place tomorrow afternoon with a big speech and lot of palava.

A lot of other countries have already condemned the annexation, including close allies, even Serbia. So the question is if Putin will want to make some kind of additional threat or demonstration, or will be content to see how the mobilised troops do first.

[Garak]

The mobilised troops will mostly be geography, considering how things are going.

[Cause]

Even close Allie’s have to wonder how many Russian speaking citizens they might have near valuable resources I guess.

I suspect no one will Acknowledge the annexation. The precedent of declaring land you invade yours, and than using that to justify unclear weapons in defense f your sobriety borders should send alarm bells in everyone’s head.

[Werthead]

Cause, on 29 September 2022 - 03:21 PM, said:

Even close Allie’s have to wonder how many Russian speaking citizens they might have near valuable resources I guess.

I suspect no one will Acknowledge the annexation. The precedent of declaring land you invade yours, and than using that to justify unclear weapons in defense f your sobriety borders should send alarm bells in everyone’s head.

Serbia and Kazakhstan very firmly rejected the referendum immediately, since they have skin in the game, despite being somewhat pro-Russian. Serbia has its issue with Kosovo, of course, and the Kazakhstani government now seems to believe that they "might be next" after Ukraine is partitioned, as they have a Russian-speaking minority along their own border with Russia and some Russian government officials have been very bellicose in saying that, like Ukraine, Kazakhstan is not a real country and its Russian-speaking regions need to be "reunified" with the mother country. Kazakhstan wants to head that off at the pass (and also keep the Ukraine-Russia conflict within a conventional framework, as Ukraine is currently depriving Russia of its military hardware reserves at a rate of knots).

China's reaction is going to be interesting. They're in a tough spot because they absolutely cannot accept the precedent of a claimed region having a referendum and declaring independence because of what that means for Taiwan, but they do want to try to keep Russia on-side somewhat. But they also need the war to end ASAP because they're in a bind with their biggest supplier of corn (Ukraine) being cut off from them.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 29 September 2022 - 03:28 PM

[stone monkey]

Azath Vitr (D, on 27 September 2022 - 05:04 PM, said:

Russian Draftees Told to Borrow Wives' Tampons for Battlefield First Aid

To be fair, it's been known for decades that tampons have this alternative functionality on the battlefield, but "borrow" does rather seem to imply that they'd be giving them back after use.

[Macros]

Waste not want not

[Werthead]

Unconfirmed reports (mainly via Russian social media) that the Russians are pulling out of Lyman whilst there's a road still open.