[worry]

They should all drop out now.

[worry]

[worry]

He also glorified shooting Muslims with bullets dipped in pig's blood. So, you know, a victory for everyone.

But yah, the winning isn't a surprise anymore, but the proportions are still kinda staggering. I don't remember the exact NH numbers either but he won by more than double Kasich's second place vote count, IIRC.

[Tsundoku]

Terez, on 21 February 2016 - 01:42 AM, said:

Bush is out.

*snicker*

I guess that was the last Bush joke then.

@Worry
Cute idea, but the blood would either vaporise in the barrel or in the air due to friction. Carving "666" on the bullet or using blood instead of mercury in the tip however ...

This post has been edited by Tsundoku: 21 February 2016 - 04:56 AM

[worry]

Well he got the idea from an apocryphal right wing email chain type of story, so that figures.

[worry]

Theory I heard was that while he's not necessarily a Palin-like con man doing all this for the tour & book money, the campaign machine under him very much is in it for the money, and they're propping up this awkward, totally unprepared, perhaps mentally ill man to fill their own coffers. Not implausible, but I still thing it's largely his own ego.

[Terez]

Hillary got Morgan Freeman, but Bernie got Spike Lee:

http://abcnews.go.co...ory?id=37127329

It's not all that surprising that Bernie is getting most of the legit black radicals. They may not love him, but they trust him more than they trust Hillary.

[QuickTidal]

From a Canadian: When does all the choosing actually go down?

Like when do they decide who is the ( R) candidate and who the (D) candidate are?...and then when is the actual election?

It seems like this pre-choosing stuff has been going on for months and months.

This post has been edited by QuickTidal: 23 February 2016 - 03:58 PM

[Terez]

We are in the midst of the actual election. It just goes state by state, so it takes a while. The nomination is more or less decided when a candidate surpasses the minimum number of delegates needed to clinch the nomination.

This is how it works:

IOWA

23 for Hillary
21 for Bernie

NEW HAMPSHIRE

9 for Hillary
15 for Bernie

NEVADA

20 for Hillary
15 for Bernie

So now they're tied at 51 delegates. 2381 delegates are needed to clinch the nomination.

PS: the nominating conventions are in July, but the nominations will probably be decided before then, at least on the Democratic side. On the Republican side we might have a brokered convention. The general election is in November.

This post has been edited by Terez: 23 February 2016 - 04:06 PM

[Mentalist]

Usually the "moment of truth" is Super-Tuesday, no? Which is, iirc next week.

At which point one of the candidates should get enough momentum to steamroll the other.

[Terez]

It's always a big day, to be sure, but it's not always decisive, especially in one-on-one contests like we have on the Dem side. Hillary vs Obama went on into June, when Obama finally got enough delegates to clinch the nomination on June 3rd.

On the Republican side, the best we'll get from Super Tuesday (March 1) is likely Kasich and Carson drop-outs. It's possible they'll drop out before then. We'll see.

As for the Dem side, no matter how Super Tuesday goes, no one will be dropping out until someone clinches the nomination, and that won't happen on Super Tuesday. None of the Democratic primaries are winner take all; the delegates are awarded proportionally. The Republicans have some winner-take-all states, and in other states there are thresholds like we saw in South Carolina, where Trump took all 50 delegates.

[Andorion]

When Trump takes the oath I am going to save the photo

[Cause]

Out of curiosity.

My countries (south africa) government has now twice made public statements to the press where they claim to be aware of plans by the American embassy to foster regime change in the country. Also accused the US of using some kind of student exchange Programe to plant agents in universities etc. Part for the course of their paranoia and shallow politics. Still to so blatantly accuse foreign government. Is it getting any news coverage state side? I wonder if it will have an effect on foreign relations

[Nevyn]

Mentalist, on 23 February 2016 - 04:11 PM, said:

Usually the "moment of truth" is Super-Tuesday, no? Which is, iirc next week.

At which point one of the candidates should get enough momentum to steamroll the other.

Could be. But look at all the states that will still be to come after super tuesday.

Obama and Hilary went well past super tuesday 2008. In fact, I think Hilary "won" super tuesday that year.

If Trump practically sweeps it, which is possible, he could become 'inevitable'. But Trump is controversial enough that that is no lock. And every establishment candidate that drops out is another potential bounty for the anti-Trump candidate (well anti-Trump, anti-Cruz right now).

Rubio and/or Cruz need some super tuesday wins and to be close enough in vote count that their backers still consider them viable. But Trump can win the most delegates on super tuesday and still lose the nomination. It will probably be the end of Kasich and anyone else but the big 3. But Cruz is unpredictable and Rubio is likely to stick it out awhile to see if he can gather the "anti Trump" vote.

[HoosierDaddy]

Cause, on 23 February 2016 - 06:50 PM, said:

Out of curiosity.

My countries (south africa) government has now twice made public statements to the press where they claim to be aware of plans by the American embassy to foster regime change in the country. Also accused the US of using some kind of student exchange Programe to plant agents in universities etc. Part for the course of their paranoia and shallow politics. Still to so blatantly accuse foreign government. Is it getting any news coverage state side? I wonder if it will have an effect on foreign relations

Huh?

Maybe if Apartheid was still going on, but otherwise, our eyes are turned north east and way northeast of SA when it comes to regime change. Or anything for that matter.

That's hilarious.

[HoosierDaddy]

Nevyn, on 23 February 2016 - 09:16 PM, said:

Mentalist, on 23 February 2016 - 04:11 PM, said:

Usually the "moment of truth" is Super-Tuesday, no? Which is, iirc next week.

At which point one of the candidates should get enough momentum to steamroll the other.

Could be. But look at all the states that will still be to come after super tuesday.

Obama and Hilary went well past super tuesday 2008. In fact, I think Hilary "won" super tuesday that year.

If Trump practically sweeps it, which is possible, he could become 'inevitable'. But Trump is controversial enough that that is no lock. And every establishment candidate that drops out is another potential bounty for the anti-Trump candidate (well anti-Trump, anti-Cruz right now).

Rubio and/or Cruz need some super tuesday wins and to be close enough in vote count that their backers still consider them viable. But Trump can win the most delegates on super tuesday and still lose the nomination. It will probably be the end of Kasich and anyone else but the big 3. But Cruz is unpredictable and Rubio is likely to stick it out awhile to see if he can gather the "anti Trump" vote.

Obama and Hillary were a dead heat after Super Tuesday. Bernie's going to get slaughtered.

[Vengeance]

Cause, on 23 February 2016 - 06:50 PM, said:

Out of curiosity.

My countries (south africa) government has now twice made public statements to the press where they claim to be aware of plans by the American embassy to foster regime change in the country. Also accused the US of using some kind of student exchange Programe to plant agents in universities etc. Part for the course of their paranoia and shallow politics. Still to so blatantly accuse foreign government. Is it getting any news coverage state side? I wonder if it will have an effect on foreign relations

We also like to use people who have committed violent crimes that we then fake their death, and after a year of training turn into lethal hit men/women in order to facilitate regime change. But don't just take my word for it. See Nikita ,Alias and any of the other other bullshit super spy TV shows. While we do and occasionally will support a regime change it is usually in countries where we have a significant national interest or either allies or enemies do. I don't believe that SA qualifies in any of those categories.

[worry]

The flaw in that question is the naive notion that American news covers Africa at all, let alone events in individual countries. As far as the media are concerned, unless it's about terrorism or disease, Africa and South America might as well not exist at all.

[Primateus]

I think that the sad state of affairs these days is that SA is too far away in not just distance but also in matters of policy and interests that the US, and indeed the western world as a whole, don't really care about what goes on there or who governs. Sure, if some super bad guy villain type starts some shit and becomes dictator, the rest of the world might take notice. But honestly, in terms of political interference, I think the safer bet is to maybe look towards China?

[worry]

Couple of favorability comparison charts (spoilered due to size) from https://twitter.com/adrian_gray
Not necessarily predictive of anything, just interesting to see where Bernie, Hillary, and Donald fall relative to each other and to recent history.

Spoiler