[Peanutbutta]

From the Main Thread:

Serc, on Apr 29 2009, 10:50 AM, said:

Still doing that reread, this just occurred to me - We forgot to ask Telas who he had done a find on all the nights after Fener died. FUCK.

Kind of funny, really, because Telas can't really clear anyone with the symps. He'd have mentioned Ruse and that might have given Scum big leg-up.

[Slick Mongoose]

Peanutbutta, on Apr 29 2009, 06:56 PM, said:

From the Main Thread:

Serc, on Apr 29 2009, 10:50 AM, said:

Still doing that reread, this just occurred to me - We forgot to ask Telas who he had done a find on all the nights after Fener died. FUCK.

Kind of funny, really, because Telas can't really clear anyone with the symps. He'd have mentioned Ruse and that might have given Scum big leg-up.

Telas posted it in the thread.

[Slick Mongoose]

Shinrei no Shintai, on Apr 29 2009, 04:55 PM, said:

@Slick Mongoose. Thanks man! I didn't take your advise about revealing after making a case, simply because I didn't think Shadow would last long and I figured I"d wind up dead before I got to sign on again.

I think you probably did the right thing. They were always in a rush to lynch this game.

[Vengeance]

Slick Mongoose, on Apr 29 2009, 01:01 PM, said:

Shinrei no Shintai, on Apr 29 2009, 04:55 PM, said:

@Slick Mongoose. Thanks man! I didn't take your advise about revealing after making a case, simply because I didn't think Shadow would last long and I figured I"d wind up dead before I got to sign on again.

I think you probably did the right thing. They were always in a rush to lynch this game.

Of course he did the right thing. If he hadn't reveal and with the code I might have lived a while longer. I didn't leave hardly any information that might have pointed toward me as scum so it would have been very very hard for you to have built a case on me. Plus I would have been painting you as scum for trying to frame me. Shadow might have sided with me he was trusting me after his near miss. No revealing and using the code was the right way to go. I couldn't bullshit my way out....

It was a good play. Both of you guys were good finders. It was just tough luck that we had knocked off the healer so early....

[Vengeance]

drinksinbars, on Apr 29 2009, 12:38 PM, said:

Vengeance, on Apr 29 2009, 05:24 PM, said:

drinksinbars, on Apr 29 2009, 09:38 AM, said:

wow, to say i am disappointed in veng and tapper is a total understatement. low posting non active scum sucking ball sacks.

on a side note, i had fun

Bugger you too big guy. Your just pissed I left you alive to wander around blundering into things.

I was a high mid poster not a bloody low poster, and if the bloody weekend hadn't been there then I would have been in the top...


Tehehehehehe

i didnt even remember you were playing most of the time, you had about as much impact as a fly farting in a hurricane

off tread you wee uber poster of course

Of course....

[Slick Mongoose]

Vengeance, on Apr 29 2009, 07:13 PM, said:

It was a good play. Both of you guys were good finders. It was just tough luck that we had knocked off the healer so early....

And that we found both symps.

[Path-Shaper]

Gamelon feels that Serc is an appropriate pick for the night's kill.

Quote

Serc is proving to be the main instigator at the moment in looking for clues in Venge's few posts.
His kill will stir things up and make people look at his analysis more - which has some interesting stuff in it but not at all harmful to myself and only partly to Ruse. I'm happy with our pick.

I'm not sure it will go entirely as he felt it will simply because two near lynches were stopped by finders. The remaining innos may realize that they have been wrong with their initial guesses most of the time.

But Game and Ruse have done really nothing to arouse suspicion so I'm not sure Shadow can dodge another bullet.

[Vengeance]

Path-Shaper, on Apr 29 2009, 01:27 PM, said:

Gamelon feels that Serc is an appropriate pick for the night's kill.

Quote

Serc is proving to be the main instigator at the moment in looking for clues in Venge's few posts.
His kill will stir things up and make people look at his analysis more - which has some interesting stuff in it but not at all harmful to myself and only partly to Ruse. I'm happy with our pick.

I'm not sure it will go entirely as he felt it will simply because two near lynches were stopped by finders. The remaining innos may realize that they have been wrong with their initial guesses most of the time.

But Game and Ruse have done really nothing to arouse suspicion so I'm not sure Shadow can dodge another bullet.

I told Tapper that Omtose was ano's fellow guard but he must have forgotten. Omtose needs to die by at least tomorrow night. Also someone should bring up that Serc has basically dogged through the entire game and now looks to be trying to drive things right after I was lynched. Thus he could be a symp just promoted. Ugggg.... I hope that Tapper can pull it off.


Oh and Dibs I was trying to play like you did when you were a killer. I was just a little bit more quiet. I knew I had you and Mental out there stirring things up for me.

Thanks again...

[Peanutbutta]

Vengeance, on Apr 29 2009, 11:51 AM, said:

Path-Shaper, on Apr 29 2009, 01:27 PM, said:

Gamelon feels that Serc is an appropriate pick for the night's kill.

Quote

Serc is proving to be the main instigator at the moment in looking for clues in Venge's few posts.
His kill will stir things up and make people look at his analysis more - which has some interesting stuff in it but not at all harmful to myself and only partly to Ruse. I'm happy with our pick.

I'm not sure it will go entirely as he felt it will simply because two near lynches were stopped by finders. The remaining innos may realize that they have been wrong with their initial guesses most of the time.

But Game and Ruse have done really nothing to arouse suspicion so I'm not sure Shadow can dodge another bullet.

I told Tapper that Omtose was ano's fellow guard but he must have forgotten. Omtose needs to die by at least tomorrow night. Also someone should bring up that Serc has basically dogged through the entire game and now looks to be trying to drive things right after I was lynched. Thus he could be a symp just promoted. Ugggg.... I hope that Tapper can pull it off.


Oh and Dibs I was trying to play like you did when you were a killer. I was just a little bit more quiet. I knew I had you and Mental out there stirring things up for me.

Thanks again...

Tapper isn't alone you goober. Malaese managed to duck suspicion the entire game.

[Vengeance]

Peanutbutta, on Apr 29 2009, 02:13 PM, said:

Vengeance, on Apr 29 2009, 11:51 AM, said:

Path-Shaper, on Apr 29 2009, 01:27 PM, said:

Gamelon feels that Serc is an appropriate pick for the night's kill.

Quote

Serc is proving to be the main instigator at the moment in looking for clues in Venge's few posts.
His kill will stir things up and make people look at his analysis more - which has some interesting stuff in it but not at all harmful to myself and only partly to Ruse. I'm happy with our pick.

I'm not sure it will go entirely as he felt it will simply because two near lynches were stopped by finders. The remaining innos may realize that they have been wrong with their initial guesses most of the time.

But Game and Ruse have done really nothing to arouse suspicion so I'm not sure Shadow can dodge another bullet.

I told Tapper that Omtose was ano's fellow guard but he must have forgotten. Omtose needs to die by at least tomorrow night. Also someone should bring up that Serc has basically dogged through the entire game and now looks to be trying to drive things right after I was lynched. Thus he could be a symp just promoted. Ugggg.... I hope that Tapper can pull it off.


Oh and Dibs I was trying to play like you did when you were a killer. I was just a little bit more quiet. I knew I had you and Mental out there stirring things up for me.

Thanks again...

Tapper isn't alone you goober. Malaese managed to duck suspicion the entire game.

Yes he did and he did a good job of it too. I stand rebuked...

[Path-Shaper]

Bent here, thanks to everyone who has helped or will help mod in the future. You guys are great. Extra rep to Peanut and Slick who, as far as I know have never modded before. Good job stepping up to the plae guys. Oh, and don't stop helping please!

[Vengeance]

Omtose, on Apr 29 2009, 02:27 PM, said:

Yes the idea of the symp being blocked either way makes sense in which case I think it's fair to assume we were dealing with paired killers and there is still one left. Does anyone think we got all of the symps?

Yeah but not how you thought....:snigger:

[Path-Shaper]

Point is, right now, scum have an advantage, but it isn't that big.

• Right now it's 6 inno : 2 scum
  
• If the innos mess up today...
  • 4 inno : 2 scum
    
  • If they mess up tomorrow
    • 3 inno : 1 scum
      
    • If they mess up scum win (1 inno : 1 scum)
  
  
• If the innos get it right today...
  • 5 inno : 1 scum
    
  • If they mess up tomorrow
    • 3 inno : 1 scum
      
    • If they mess up scum win (1 inno : 1 scum)

Basically, the innos MUST get two of the next three days correct in terms of scum lynches (assuming they lynch every day, obviously)

Assuming every player has an equal chance to be lynched, the game breaks down like this in terms of lynches (assume an inno kill each night):

• Scum | Scum > Inno wins
  
• Scum | Inno | Scum > Inno wins
  
• Scum | Inno | Inno > Scum wins
  
• Inno | Inno > Scum wins
  
• Inno | Scum | Scum > Inno wins
  
• Inno | Scum | Inno > Scum wins

So the game outcome breaks pretty evenly for scum, BUT scum have knowledge of the game and innos do not, AND some players are more likely to be lynched right now (Shadow being the obvious one) so I give a slight advantage to scum.

Note: If Serc is actually killed tonight and not Omtose, then if scum is lynched, Omtose could act as a ghetto finder... BUT it could easily backfire. If he guards someone and the last scum intentionally doesn't do a night kill, Omtose could reveal and finger his guard target as a solo killer... which would result in a quick lynch and obviously a subsequent night kill. THIS, in turn hinges upon his guard target NOT being the remaining scum, who would end up dead, and Omtose NOT putting a provisional in his haste to lynch the suspected last scum.

There's enough going on that while I still give the advantage to scum, it could change in an instant.

[Path-Shaper]

Path-Shaper, on Apr 29 2009, 04:06 PM, said:

• Right now it's 6 inno : 2 scum
  
• If the innos mess up today...
  • 4 inno : 2 scum
    
  • If they mess up tomorrow
    • 3 inno : 1 scum
      
    • If they mess up scum win (1 inno : 1 scum)

Fail?

Edit - Bent at peanut

This post has been edited by Path-Shaper: 29 April 2009 - 08:09 PM

[Vengeance]

Path-Shaper, on Apr 29 2009, 03:08 PM, said:

Path-Shaper, on Apr 29 2009, 04:06 PM, said:

• Right now it's 6 inno : 2 scum
  
• If the innos mess up today...
  • 4 inno : 2 scum
    
  • If they mess up tomorrow
    • 3 inno : 1 scum
      
    • If they mess up scum win (1 inno : 1 scum)

Fail?

Edit - Bent at peanut

Yes but other then that your right.

[Slick Mongoose]

Path-Shaper, on Apr 29 2009, 09:06 PM, said:

Point is, right now, scum have an advantage, but it isn't that big.

You're right, the scum have never had that big an advantage in terms of numbers. The problem is the direction that the innocents are looking. Shadow shouldn't even be a possibility for a lynch. He's VPI. Yet he's everyone's top choice.

[Peanutbutta]

Path-Shaper, on Apr 29 2009, 01:08 PM, said:

Path-Shaper, on Apr 29 2009, 04:06 PM, said:

• Right now it's 6 inno : 2 scum
  
• If the innos mess up today...
  • 4 inno : 2 scum
    
  • If they mess up tomorrow
    • 3 inno : 1 scum
      
    • If they mess up scum win (1 inno : 1 scum)

Fail?

Edit - Bent at peanut

Just a typo, Bent. The logic is the innos get it right either today or tomorrow but not both. Underlined post should be "If they get it right tomorrow."

Also, I completely forgot to mention one thing. Three players completely missed a lynch cycle. That should clear them (or at least indicate that if they are a killer, another killer is in the pack of active posters).

[Vengeance]

Peanutbutta, on Apr 29 2009, 03:11 PM, said:

Path-Shaper, on Apr 29 2009, 01:08 PM, said:

Path-Shaper, on Apr 29 2009, 04:06 PM, said:

• Right now it's 6 inno : 2 scum
  
• If the innos mess up today...
  • 4 inno : 2 scum
    
  • If they mess up tomorrow
    • 3 inno : 1 scum
      
    • If they mess up scum win (1 inno : 1 scum)

Fail?

Edit - Bent at peanut

Just a typo, Bent. The logic is the innos get it right either today or tomorrow but not both. Underlined post should be "If they get it right tomorrow."

Also, I completely forgot to mention one thing. Three players completely missed a lynch cycle. That should clear them (or at least indicate that if they are a killer, another killer is in the pack of active posters).

Except for the fact that I also missed a lynch cycle which I am sure someone will point out again which means that they won't be able to use that to clear people.

Thanks Peanut for the password. I kept typing big fight instead of Battle.

[Vengeance]

Slick Mongoose, on Apr 29 2009, 03:11 PM, said:

Path-Shaper, on Apr 29 2009, 09:06 PM, said:

Point is, right now, scum have an advantage, but it isn't that big.

You're right, the scum have never had that big an advantage in terms of numbers. The problem is the direction that the innocents are looking. Shadow shouldn't even be a possibility for a lynch. He's VPI. Yet he's everyone's top choice.

Once again WIFOM play against the innocents. In shadows case the very fact that he has been pointing fingers at people will make them go against what they should know to be true. My guys should know who Omtose is and hopefully remember to take him out. They need to kill him tomorrow night in order to wrap up the game.

[Gem Windcaster]

Slick Mongoose, on Apr 29 2009, 08:11 PM, said:

Shadow shouldn't even be a possibility for a lynch. He's VPI. Yet he's everyone's top choice.

It's the sheeple syndrome - it's what continually is pissing me off with this game.