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42.5, mafia mini spoilers Mexican Stand-off

#41 User is offline   Path-Shaper 

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Posted 15 April 2009 - 05:43 PM

Emur:

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Stupid vote mechanic :p

WHO THE HELL PUTS IMPORTANT STUFF IN THE RULES?

Gonna just have to make the best I can of the situation, but it draws attention to me.

Having said that, it wasn't purposeful, so doesn't look purposeful, I hope.

Means I don't have to get on a train today which is good :p

I reckon Harmonica man will avoid trains, cause they just narrow down where he is.



Kesso with a night action:

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Wow, two more posters suddenly posted with me, leaving only Gamelon and Hood's Path to go. There's a small chance they are just lurking to snipe night if they are the hombre, although I suspect the hombre will be wanting a lynch tonight to get closer to the magical number (or will he just count on staying out of the night cross fire?)

Either way, consider this official and I hope it's not a mistake :p

Provisional Night Action - Kill Fener

thanks for submitting! Pretty early in the day as lots of stuff can still happen (but that might also work to your advantage), but it's noted.


HP:

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Can I do it this way, and have you end day as soon as Gamelon posts?

If so, please do that, since I want to mess with the others on Day 1. If not, I will have to skip class to see when he posts (but not really).
Ending day is fun, but I don't expect to do it too often. Only if I am in trouble or feeling like playing around.

Also when I vote, will you count it as 1 vote on the page but not count it overall? Or will it not ever appear to count on thread?

It will appear on thread, the train will just go on to 8 then.
So, you can 'cover-vote' and use a strategy that allows you to hide on a train if you want.
Ending the day by PM and voting are two entirely unrelated things in this game :p

Ending the day cannot be done on provisional, sorry, it would be overly powerful if done on 'remote control'.

Tennes:

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Uhm, dunno if you're actually allowed to tell me this, but how exactly do NKs happen? I'm assuming that it's a dedicated night ability, but I dont really get why anyone would use it, since whoever does the killing is more than likely to end up dead themselves...

Also, iron man night actions are a little counter-intuitive in a game that is run solely on provisionals. Not a criticism, but if day ends suddenly you'll likely find a lot of people havent put their actions in yet.

Yup, and that is part of the charm :p If you're early, you will base it on little info, but you've got your order in. If you wait to see how things play out, you can be too late.
Only someone with this much power could make this many frittatas without breaking any eggs.
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#42 User is offline   Path-Shaper 

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Posted 15 April 2009 - 05:50 PM

Kesso:

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Wow, two more posters suddenly posted with me, leaving only Gamelon and Hood's Path to go. There's a small chance they are just lurking to snipe night if they are the hombre, although I suspect the hombre will be wanting a lynch tonight to get closer to the magical number (or will he just count on staying out of the night cross fire?)

Either way, consider this official and I hope it's not a mistake :p

Provisional Night Action - Kill Fener

thanks for submitting! Pretty early in the day as lots of stuff can still happen (but that might also work to your advantage), but it's noted.


Only thing I'm worried about is letting him run the show and calling an early night (only Gamelon needs to post now). I realize the Hombre wants more people to die, and probably early because the longer the game goes on the more likely people will figure out who he is due to the lack of a true vote, but I could also see him trying to drag out the first day just to see what kind of bloody first night we have so he knows if he can just tag-a-long and win rather than try to pick fights.

I thought about putting in a conditional set of actions, too, in case Fener gets lynched (which I see as highly unlikely right now), but call this my gut and I'm okay with not killing anyone else early game if Fener gets the noose.

Odds are good I got it wrong and will /facepalm later, but when you have QK suited in the hole and Q + 4-7 same suit on the board, you gotta go all in.

I really appreciate the effort he puts in his PMs, that's awesome.
Only someone with this much power could make this many frittatas without breaking any eggs.
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#43 User is offline   Path-Shaper 

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Posted 15 April 2009 - 08:52 PM

Anomandaris:

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Ben Morrows (Anomandaris)
You have no abilities, but you can participate in Mexican Stand-offs.

you are a member of the posse.


Since I have no kill it seems I'm of most use to my team by staying alive. Since I don't know my team it that means 6/13 = 46% of the time I get them, 5/13 = 38% I get the bad guys and 2/13 = 15% I get the HH or the slut and nothing happens. One bullet but two priority targets changes those percentages a little along with a day 1 lynch. Seven people have actions, but they can't all be kills or we likely end the game tomorrow so maybe 4 with 3 manipulators or 3 and 4. 13 people with 2 standoff targets = 26 minus 4 for the HH and slut, and if you assume 4 non-overlapping kills night 1 minus 8 = 14 chances to be on someone's list, 12 if you add in a lynch. Seems like everyone could die tonight. I predict the hostage wins. I predict the HH wins. Both subject to approximately 3 to 5 in 13 chances of dying from a lynch or direct kill. Seems like I should not standoff, but that is not a confirmation!

Impressive math (compliments there!), but the human factor is bound to screw with it all and probably in all the ways you wouldn't expect :p


Seems like we shouldn't lynch either, although the first person to suggest that probably gets lynched. If we lynch and 5 people die tonight that are not the HH I think we lose. I can't imagine the sheeple just all refusing to standoff at a minimum for meta-laughs. Maybe not everyone can stand off. Ah well probably best to see what happens tonight to gauge the amount of kills out there. Killing = bad until we CF the Hombre.


Grief:

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View PostSerc, on Apr 15 2009, 07:46 PM, said:

Well, I don't know, except that we have to get lucky. The funny thing is, that we can't NOT send in a night action, or he could kill us with NO chance of one of us killing him. Wow, this is complicated a little.


No action is FAR safer. 13 people, all wiht 2 actions. If you have success, and lots of people submit, then your chances of survival are small.

Ironically, the more people realise this, the safer it is...


Kesso:

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Anomandaris--I think Path-Shaper said there was a total mix up in sending out the PM's so if the person that got the Harmonical Hombre PM could identify themselves in thread we can get this sorted out

I know Malaese's humor and that sounds a lot like him. My bet is Anomandaris is him.

bonus points!

Serc-Bent picks a target.

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Kill Anomandaris. Shoot him in the left eye, please!


Venge puts in an action:

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My first would be Anomandaris and my second will be Emurlahn


Anomandaris himself:

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Alright, not that it matters but I think day is going to end soon.

So I choose to, take no action, no stand-offs tonight.

Only someone with this much power could make this many frittatas without breaking any eggs.
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#44 User is offline   Sixty 

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Posted 15 April 2009 - 09:02 PM

Looks like Silencer's lynched. :/

Are you already on it, or should I?
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#45 User is offline   Path-Shaper 

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Posted 15 April 2009 - 09:04 PM

Venge:

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My first would be Anomandaris and my second will be Emurlahn

thanks, it's noted - Tapper



By the way this looks like it is going to be a good set up. I like how you have made it so that we have to think about what to do rather then react to the situation.

Hopefully it will stay that way. For now, the hombre offers a clear target to chase, but what will happen when he's dead or calls night a couple of times very early? While designing the game, I formulated an answer, but I hope people will find it.

Otherwise, with no-one knowing anyone, it may end in mass confusion and a shoot out just because people don't care to find out or are afraid to drop hints to their alignment or suggest a course of action, and it is not like the posse and to a lesser extent the gang can win just as fast or faster than the Hombre can.
Only someone with this much power could make this many frittatas without breaking any eggs.
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#46 User is offline   Sixty 

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Posted 15 April 2009 - 09:08 PM

Well I think Stalker fucked himself over by missing the train. Now those 7 have been vindicated.
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#47 User is offline   Path-Shaper 

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Posted 15 April 2009 - 09:10 PM

View PostSixty, on Apr 15 2009, 11:02 PM, said:

Looks like Silencer's lynched. :/

Are you already on it, or should I?

Not yet on it, will get on it now.
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#48 User is offline   Path-Shaper 

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Posted 15 April 2009 - 09:11 PM

Tennes:

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Emur, then Fener, then Serc
.
also explained to him that NAs aren't mandatory.
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#49 User is offline   Path-Shaper 

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Posted 15 April 2009 - 09:21 PM

Meanas-Venge:

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My first would be Anomandaris and my second will be Emurlahn

thanks, it's noted - Tapper



By the way this looks like it is going to be a good set up. I like how you have made it so that we have to think about what to do rather then react to the situation.

Hopefully it will stay that way. For now, the hombre offers a clear target to chase, but what will happen when he's dead or calls night a couple of times very early? While designing the game, I formulated an answer, but I hope people will find it.

Otherwise, with no-one knowing anyone, it may end in mass confusion and a shoot out just because people don't care to find out or are afraid to drop hints to their alignment or suggest a course of action, and it is not like the posse and to a lesser extent the gang can win just as fast or faster than the Hombre can.


Well one of the problem with dropping hints as to your faction is how do you tell a real hint from the fake ones. I think that i have already dropped a couple of fake ones. Had to do it. It is how I role. :p

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#50 User is offline   Path-Shaper 

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Posted 15 April 2009 - 09:21 PM

Tennes:

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Emur, then Fener, then Serc.

one minute in before the bell.
Just so you know, NAs aren't mandatory, you can decide to do nothing.
If you send in nothing, there are no repurcussions from my side (you can be killed still by killers, of course).


hehe, took a chance on the hombre being outside the group, but I now realise he wont be in the standoffs. Meh, whether I put in an action or not I can still be killed by the killer. At least this way I have a chance of killing him. Although you should just kill people who are HP and havent put in a an action. THAT would be chaos :p

And I would never be allowed to mod again :p
Only someone with this much power could make this many frittatas without breaking any eggs.
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#51 User is offline   Path-Shaper 

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Posted 15 April 2009 - 09:22 PM

Gamelon, our lovely hostage:

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You are Miss Emma Easton, the Hostage.



... I hate you. I just knew when I read that role in the opener, that was going to be me. I just knew it.

On the other hand, I wasn't planning on doing any Kills or Standoffs if I wound up Roled anyways, because it seems like the easiest way to live each Night is just to not do anything.

I sympathize... it's the hardest one to play, probably. Hopefully, it will also be interesting as you're the unaligned vote that's necessary to tip the scales, I hope people see that.



Well, people aren't going to see it because I can't reveal. Which is what I wanted to ask about - can I drop some subtle hints that I'm the hostage? Maybe something about railroad tracks, or Stockholm Syndrome, or something?

Yup, that's totally allowed, you can also quote movies with damsels in distress etc.
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#52 User is offline   Path-Shaper 

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Posted 15 April 2009 - 09:24 PM

Grief-Emur:

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Shit man, that's such a stupid way to be lynched, and it's my fault for screwing up with the rules, sorry.

Let's hope he'll read the rules next time....
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#53 User is offline   Path-Shaper 

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Posted 15 April 2009 - 09:24 PM

Tennes:

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Quote

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Emur, then Fener, then Serc.

one minute in before the bell.
Just so you know, NAs aren't mandatory, you can decide to do nothing.
If you send in nothing, there are no repurcussions from my side (you can be killed still by killers, of course).


hehe, took a chance on the hombre being outside the group, but I now realise he wont be in the standoffs. Meh, whether I put in an action or not I can still be killed by the killer. At least this way I have a chance of killing him. Although you should just kill people who are HP and havent put in a an action. THAT would be chaos :p

And I would never be allowed to mod again :p


You'd have provisionals in three days in advance though :p

That's so :p
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#54 User is offline   Path-Shaper 

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Posted 15 April 2009 - 09:25 PM

Pity they picked Fener to kill, to be honest. I hope Kesso will know what it means, but should I send him a short explanation that his kill was processed but stumbled somehow?
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#55 User is offline   Path-Shaper 

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Posted 15 April 2009 - 09:28 PM

He does the maths himself. I think we've got quite a formidable new guy on board!

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Well it doesn't look like my call to kill Fener 'missed' which probably means some other action trumped it.

If that's the case that is some CRAZY play and I have to commend you. Truth be told, if Fener really did get a save with the few posts he had, I have a good feeling that either

1) Someone (bounty hunter?) knows who he is (bandit leader?) and made sure to keep him alive...
2) He has an ability to keep himself from getting NK'd (standoff would still kill), which may explain his brashness if he can use it every night
3) Bounty Hunter played a song to keep deaths down tonight, which actually makes NO sense logically considering we now know it's one of five people... so the bounty hunter was online early and put in his action early to try and keep suspicion of him healthy, while not realizing we'd figure out how to cut our sample to less-than-half.

Anyway, great work so far!

Glad you like it :p
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#56 User is offline   Path-Shaper 

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Posted 15 April 2009 - 09:29 PM

Grief:

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Shit man, that's such a stupid way to be lynched, and it's my fault for screwing up with the rules, sorry.

next time, RTFM :p


Yeah.

Not sure I like the random lynches, because it means that after hombre is gone, my team could be screwed because loads of them fall in the hunt...

Yup. Or even before that... as seen from the victory conditions.
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#57 User is offline   Path-Shaper 

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Posted 15 April 2009 - 09:30 PM

D'riss loses patience, PM is called: let's make this bloody :p

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Kill Fener

:p

Noted.
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#58 User is offline   Silencer 

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Posted 15 April 2009 - 09:31 PM

Hrm...seems like someone locked the game thread...who could that be?

>.>

You might want to go and fix that...
***

Shinrei said:

<Vote Silencer> For not garnering any heat or any love for that matter. And I'm being serious here, it's like a mental block that is there, and you just keep forgetting it.

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#59 User is offline   Path-Shaper 

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Posted 15 April 2009 - 09:33 PM

View PostSilencer, on Apr 15 2009, 11:31 PM, said:

Hrm...seems like someone locked the game thread...who could that be?

>.>

You might want to go and fix that...

Ooooh. Tsk tsk... I've got a few PMs speculating to the identity :p

Sorry man, it's a bit nasty that they decided to fish things out like this and jump on your train, but its legit play.
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#60 User is offline   Morgoth 

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Posted 15 April 2009 - 09:34 PM

Tiss what happens when I do not play. No one understands the rules and Silencer dies
Take good care to keep relations civil
It's decent in the first of gentlemen
To speak friendly, Even to the devil
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