[Cause]

Iran can’t mine the strait, any ship or shore operation they attempt will be bombed within the hour. Drone strikes are enough deterrent for now I would think and probably cheaper.

I wonder if this war will finally get the gulf states to get these long imagined pipelines built to remove this vulnerable bottle neck.

Also I know it’s all about global supply and demand but now that the USA is a net exporter of oil surely the USA would be better off spending a few hundred billion on building the correct oil refineries domestically instead of a 12th aircraft carrier or whatever else to provide real national security improvements? Theoretically the USA should be able to be self sufficient energy wise. Which diringpeace time won’t matter but during war would.

This post has been edited by Cause: 10 March 2026 - 09:04 PM

[Mentalist]

Cause, on 10 March 2026 - 09:02 PM, said:

Iran can’t mine the strait, any ship or shore operation they attempt will be bombed within the hour. Drone strikes are enough deterrent for now I would think and probably cheaper.

I wonder if this war will finally get the gulf states to get these long imagined pipelines built to remove this vulnerable bottle neck.

Also I know it’s all about global supply and demand but now that the USA is a net exporter of oil surely the USA would be better off spending a few hundred billion on building the correct oil refineries domestically instead of a 12th aircraft carrier or whatever else to provide real national security improvements? Theoretically the USA should be able to be self sufficient energy wise. Which diringpeace time won’t matter but during war would.

Air Carriers are SO 2003.

It's all about the trump-class dreadnoughts these days.

[Grief]

Trump is classic as ever "if Iran has put out any mines in the Hormuz Strait, and we have no reports of them doing so, we want them removed, IMMEDIATELY!".

The reports come from two anonymous sources so taking it with a grain of salt is very fair.

Meanwhile, the US has moved through "we can escort commercial shipping and have already escorted one ship" through to "we did not in fact escort a ship and are currently unable to offer escort". The lack of professionalism still shocks me.

[Garak]

The Trump administration wouldn't know what professionalism looks like even if it kicked them in the ass, right into jail.

[Cause]

Well I was wrong and partially right about the mines. They were trying it and apparently got blown out of the water. Still frightening, no way to know how many if any might be in the water I suppose. Who knows when it may be a problem if ever.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Iran can also use UUV (unmanned underwater vehicles) that are extremely hard to detect to act as mines, and perhaps to plant mines:

Quote

Iran's Stealth Undersea Killers Threaten US Carrier Strike Groups in the Persian Gulf Power Shift

[...] 24-hour endurance UUVs and Nazir-series underwater drones introduce asymmetric littoral denial capabilities [...] described in multiple assessments as "stealth undersea killers," [...]

[...] persistent loitering ambush patterns beneath typical sonar and patrol thresholds in shallow waters.

[... "]given its large payload capacity, it can accommodate several batteries and a heavyweight warhead," [... they can] function as mobile mines or delayed-activation strike platforms. [...]

The ability to conduct mine detection and detonation operations further indicates dual-use flexibility, enabling both defensive mine-clearing tasks and potential offensive mine emplacement in narrow transit corridors.

https://defencesecur...s-persian-gulf/

Quote

[the Nazir-series drones'] large size could make weapons integration more feasible. A large UUV used for mine laying would be relatively achievable

https://www.hisutton...rine-drone.html

Also not clear from my sources is whether after the end of the endurance period they can still effectively act as mines. Gemini Pro thinks they can fwiw but hasn't provided citations to support that.

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 11 March 2026 - 01:00 PM

[Werthead]

The US is pulling THAAD and Patriot launchers out of South Korea to send to Gulf allies. Seoul is not happy about this.

Three oil tankers have been hit and heavily damaged near the Strait, dissuading anyone else from trying to cross.

Breaking story that another two tankers have been hit and are ablaze off the coast of Iraq.

Oil tanks in Salalah, Oman are ablaze.

A Chinese cargo ship behind the Thai tanker hit this morning turned right around and got the hell out of the Strait. Apparently Iran's promises not to hit Chinese vessels are not worth very much.

The FBI has issued a warning to Californians that there is intelligence suggesting an Iranian plot to use cargo ships off the coast of California to launch attacks on military and civilian targets in Los Angeles and San Francisco. They regard the possibility as plausible.

[Cause]

Yea Trump is a moron, yes Hegseth is a moron. However this is like Americas Ukraine. The US on paper should have the red, white and blue waving over Tehran by now. Instead evidence shows missile defense is inadequate. Drones are a bigger threat then thought. This war remains a bizarre choice but it seems to have exposed that despite witnessing the last 5 years of the war in Ukraine the US has been slow to evolve its military and update doctrines.

Also this is the most unpopular war in American history but America really needs to address the fact that it has a glass jaw. They have to stop thinking about war as something in which only the other side will die.

It’s also interesting to me that for all of Hegseths talk about lethality and no more legal restraints or nation building America would seemingly be holding back some of its biggest assets. Perhaps there are just no viable targets for them, or they think the ordinance is too expensive but what is the 1 trillion budget and all those bombers and missiles for? Maybe it’s doctrinal again, less B-52 bombers and more Patriot missile factories.

[Werthead]

The problem is they can't just flatten Iran. Using B-52s or a tactical nuke to destroy Tehran would kill tens to hundreds of thousands of Iranians who hate the regime, and probably not that many regime loyalists.

They've also already destroyed most obvious military bases, AA sites, missile launch sites, factories etc. This is going to be the same problem as Serbia/Kosovo, you keep pummelling the targets that are already destroyed and unless you want to commit mass genocide, you can't really do anything else. That leads to you walking away (leaving Iran de facto victorious) or the near-inevitable conclusion that you have to send in ground troops.

[Cause]

I don’t think there is such a thing as a tactical nuke. No one will ever use one because it will just escalate the whole world to hell.

My point though remains what is all this military hardware for. What war can realistically occur in which it can be used? Recent news reports that the pentagon had to spend 93 billion dollars in September last year or lose the funds does suggest they have no idea what to do with a trillion dollar budget. Maybe quadrupling the the cia, or paying North Korea to fight iran would be a better use of all that money. Or we could describe cancer as a national security threat. The fact that Iran can still fire missiles means there are military targets that remain but that due to the fog of war America doesn’t know where they are.

There is just so much wrong with this war. I Guess one reason it feels like such a disaster is because America cant be seen to accomplish anything until someone says what they are trying to accomplish in the first place.

It seems the regime will survive and will I imagine immediate double down on the strategy of being able to hold the world’s oil supply at risk to prevent another war. Will be interesting to see if Iran has made itself a pariah amongst all the gulf states after this. Or perhaps they rethink the US military bases in their countries which are there in part to stop this.

This post has been edited by Cause: 12 March 2026 - 12:56 AM

[Tiste Simeon]

I saw somewhere now that they're trying to rebrand anything to do with the Epstein files as Iranian propaganda...

[Maark Abbott]

All this to try and justify the sitting president of the USA being a nonce. Mental.

Why are Americans allowing this.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Quote

Trump said [...] the war against Iran will end "soon" because there's "practically nothing left to target." "Little this and that... Any time I want it to end, it will end," he said.

In fact, [...] Iranian officials have rejected two messages from Trump's Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff calling for a ceasefire. [...] Iran's leaders "sense it is not losing the war and the US president is at the minimum feeling the political pressure." Iranian officials intend to make the economic, political, and military costs of the war so high that Trump will not attack Iran again.

For his part, Trump appears to be panicking over [...] news that Iran is laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz [...] They can be deployed by small vessels like hard-to-spot fishing craft at night. [...] While a few Iranian ships are traversing the strait, they are the only ones.

Professor Heather Cox Richardson - Facebook

Iran is demanding guarantees that Israel and the United States will not attack Iran again as a necessary condition for a ceasefire... which Trump and Netanyahu are almost certainly never going to agree to:

Quote

[their] main concern [...] is a resumption of the [attacks] by Israel once the current war is over

Iran demands no more US, Israel attacks for ceasefire | The Jerusalem Post

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 12 March 2026 - 12:11 PM

[QuickTidal]

Cause, on 12 March 2026 - 12:53 AM, said:

It seems the regime will survive

It was going to survive no matter what. The sheer amount of hubris involved in the USA and Israel thinking they would have any affect in the Iran regime is wild to me...the country is mountainous, so to get in you need to drop in, and then you have no supply lines (for food, ammo ect.) and are relegated to air drops, which Afghanistan proved to the soviets can be shot down b a single guy with a rocket launcher, you can't bring in much military tech like tanks cause tanks and mountains don't go together. 90 million people you would need to feasibly subdue (which math dictates requires double-triple that amount of forces to manage)...so the BEST they could ever hope for was an air campaign...but then of course they don't WANT to flatten it as they lose the resources and the oil if they do that.

This is the reason why the USA has ALWAYS told Israel no when they wanted the US to go into Iran... and why saner heads have always prevailed till now. Iran is a fortress and the amount of soldiers you'd have to spend to take it FAR outweighs its value to take.

But then Trump the moron got into power and Netanyahu saw his chance....and with Hegseth and his PlayStation 2 war naming strategy (Operation Epstein Fury) with no goals...you have this...

This post has been edited by QuickTidal: 12 March 2026 - 11:33 AM

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Expert on authoritarianism Timothy Snyder:

Quote

A purpose of the war on Iran might well be to provoke a terrorist attack inside the United States. This would provide Donald Trump with a pretext to try to cancel or "federalize" the coming Congressional elections.

Self-terrorism might not have been the initial aim; but as time goes by, and failures and atrocities mount, its appeal will grow. Trump could think that he has much to gain; the war itself makes terrorism more likely; there are plausible vectors of terror; and the United States has let down its defenses.

[...] Another possibility is an American act of terrorism on the territory of the United States, either presented as an Iranian attack or not. [...]

[...] In the moment when a republic is meant to give way to a new form of authoritarian regime, the provocation and exploitation of terror is just what one would expect to happen. It is not, in a historical or a political sense, surprising. If we fail to remember history now, we will help the Trump regime generate a sense of panic when the terror attack comes.

[...] We will be horrified, but we cannot be surprised, if there is a terrorist attack on the United States. If choose to be surprised, we co-create a moment that Trump will exploit to undo what remains of our democracy.

The Desire for Terror - by Timothy Snyder

But I imagine it would happen relatively close to election day. Granted, an Iranian terrorist attack might still seem plausible even after many months of ceasefire... and Trump can always lie. A false flag would give him maximum flexibility, and a series of false flags might be more effective (though with greater risk of leaks, defection, or detection as a false flag...).

[Mentalist]

QuickTidal, on 12 March 2026 - 11:32 AM, said:

Cause, on 12 March 2026 - 12:53 AM, said:

It seems the regime will survive

It was going to survive no matter what. The sheer amount of hubris involved in the USA and Israel thinking they would have any affect in the Iran regime is wild to me...the country is mountainous, so to get in you need to drop in, and then you have no supply lines (for food, ammo ect.) and are relegated to air drops, which Afghanistan proved to the soviets can be shot down b a single guy with a rocket launcher, you can't bring in much military tech like tanks cause tanks and mountains don't go together. 90 million people you would need to feasibly subdue (which math dictates requires double-triple that amount of forces to manage)...so the BEST they could ever hope for was an air campaign...but then of course they don't WANT to flatten it as they lose the resources and the oil if they do that.

This is the reason why the USA has ALWAYS told Israel no when they wanted the US to go into Iran... and why saner heads have always prevailed till now. Iran is a fortress and the amount of soldiers you'd have to spend to take it FAR outweighs its value to take.

But then Trump the moron got into power and Netanyahu saw his chance....and with Hegseth and his PlayStation 2 war naming strategy (Operation Epstein Fury) with no goals...you have this...

I mean, with better timing that actually coincided, with the, y'know, multi-million anti-regime protests, there's a sliver of a possibility of achieving something. Still slim, b/c we didn't exactly see an organized backbone to the protests that would be able to position itself as an alternative decision-making centre, but before the regime started mowing people down with machine gun fire by the thousands, you could maybe, potentially see a way to amplify the internal disruptions, and channel them towards a positive regime change.

But obviously what the toddler-in-chief chose to do is the exact opposite of that. Leading to the predictable entrenchment.

[QuickTidal]

Mentalist, on 12 March 2026 - 04:20 PM, said:

QuickTidal, on 12 March 2026 - 11:32 AM, said:

Cause, on 12 March 2026 - 12:53 AM, said:

It seems the regime will survive

It was going to survive no matter what. The sheer amount of hubris involved in the USA and Israel thinking they would have any affect in the Iran regime is wild to me...the country is mountainous, so to get in you need to drop in, and then you have no supply lines (for food, ammo ect.) and are relegated to air drops, which Afghanistan proved to the soviets can be shot down b a single guy with a rocket launcher, you can't bring in much military tech like tanks cause tanks and mountains don't go together. 90 million people you would need to feasibly subdue (which math dictates requires double-triple that amount of forces to manage)...so the BEST they could ever hope for was an air campaign...but then of course they don't WANT to flatten it as they lose the resources and the oil if they do that.

This is the reason why the USA has ALWAYS told Israel no when they wanted the US to go into Iran... and why saner heads have always prevailed till now. Iran is a fortress and the amount of soldiers you'd have to spend to take it FAR outweighs its value to take.

But then Trump the moron got into power and Netanyahu saw his chance....and with Hegseth and his PlayStation 2 war naming strategy (Operation Epstein Fury) with no goals...you have this...

I mean, with better timing that actually coincided, with the, y'know, multi-million anti-regime protests, there's a sliver of a possibility of achieving something. Still slim, b/c we didn't exactly see an organized backbone to the protests that would be able to position itself as an alternative decision-making centre, but before the regime started mowing people down with machine gun fire by the thousands, you could maybe, potentially see a way to amplify the internal disruptions, and channel them towards a positive regime change.

But obviously what the toddler-in-chief chose to do is the exact opposite of that. Leading to the predictable entrenchment.

We have Iranian friends in Canada, and while they are great people, they have a fundemtnal misunderstanding of how this stuff works...as they cheered on the protests and I asked who was leading them and how they were going to go about regime change and they could not answer with anything but emotion....the same convo happened the other day when the wife texted my wife to say what a great and amazing day it was when the Ayatollah got taken out...and again there was no answer. For most of the diaspora they seem intent on believing that one guy is the problem in Iran, instead a a DECADES old country wide system that cannot be head-chopped.

And it makes me sad for them because they want freedom for their people, but no one in the USA or Israel is actually seeking that....so they keep getting their hopes up and getting disappointed....in the current case the Ayatollahs son is (allegedly) even MORE of a hardliner, so the USA has already ostensibly made things worse in the region.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

QuickTidal, on 12 March 2026 - 04:39 PM, said:

in the current case the Ayatollahs son is (allegedly) even MORE of a hardliner, so the USA has already ostensibly made things worse in the region.

And the US and Israel not only murdered his father, but also his mother, his wife, and at least one of his children...

https://www.theguard...chine-autopilot

Based on his first public statement, he seems more interested in (in his translated words) "avenging the blood of [Iran's] martyrs"---and making the economic cost to the world, and the political cost to Donald Trump, so great that the United States never tries this again---than in a ceasefire.

Granted, it could be a bluff to hold out for better ceasefire terms. But it's extremely plausible that it's not, and Iran will continue the war even if both Trump and Netanyahu stop attacking.

Trump seems to relish the idea that the world is hostage to his whimsy; Mojtaba's demonstration otherwise, taking away his power to decide on a whim whether to be at war or not (and consequent impact on global markets), is almost certainly infuriating for him.

Meanwhile, Netanyahu...

Quote

described Israel as a modern Sparta. But to preserve its militarist identity, a Sparta requires permanent military friction — of a kind that would also enable its ruler to remain in power — regardless of the price it exacts from the country."

Keeping Israel at war with Iran, Hamas and Hezbollah enables Netanyahu to drag out his corruption trial and avoid a commission of inquiry for his failure to prevent Hamas's Oct. 7, 2023, invasion. (If you think that is too cynical, you don't know Netanyahu.)

As Trump Grapples With Iran Objectives, Constant Warfare Is Good for Netanyahu - Israel Security

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 12 March 2026 - 05:10 PM

[QuickTidal]

Azath Vitr (D, on 12 March 2026 - 05:10 PM, said:

Based on his first public statement, he seems more interested in (in his translated words) "avenging the blood of [Iran's] martyrs"---

I think this was a direct comment on the school where all those girls were killed...that the US has owned up to...so yeah, I mean yeah...morally how do you not see that and go "Yeah, retaliate on the country that bombed a goddamn school and killed kids" at least in terms of war, tit for tat?

[Cause]

QuickTidal, on 12 March 2026 - 05:44 PM, said:

Azath Vitr (D, on 12 March 2026 - 05:10 PM, said:

Based on his first public statement, he seems more interested in (in his translated words) "avenging the blood of [Iran's] martyrs"---

I think this was a direct comment on the school where all those girls were killed...that the US has owned up to...so yeah, I mean yeah...morally how do you not see that and go "Yeah, retaliate on the country that bombed a goddamn school and killed kids" at least in terms of war, tit for tat?

I dont think there has ever been a war in history that hasnt killed kids. If they want peace there is a way and if they want war there is a way.

It was a terrible tragedy but I don't for a minute believe the USA did it on purpose. It is next to or inside an IRGC compound as I understand it. I know the USA has military bases with soldiers housing and their families. I have never thought of it before, but I hope there is some kind of building code on minimum distances away from the rest of the base. The tragedy of this strike is that the war it took place in was itself a mistake.

If there is no viable leadership for the resistance against the IRGC in Iran than its also a massive failure on the US part that they have not taken steps to grow it into something they can work with. There has to be a viable 5th column inside Iran or this can never work.

The Iranian economy I understand was in shambles before this. Inflation was 60%. They will rebuild but how long will it take and how will the economy cope. The oppression will have to ramp up to keep the country stable or the IRGC may collapse for econimic reasons. Also if they face collapse will they drag the whole of the gulf and the worlds oil with them in revenge. Im sure the USA has been planing contigencies for this war for decades, I doubt Heseth or Trump ever read them.