[Macros]

Their best and worst tactic is fuck with the world's energy supplies.

Applies immediate pressure sure, but to the man on the ground who'se oil bill has just doubled? Easy sell tk say fuck Iran.

Sure Donny distraction did this, but its easier to be pissed at Iran who have been "extremist and isolationist" for years according to majority of media consumed

[QuickTidal]

I think my favourite thing is the Iranian ambassador on the news calmly responding to the American anchor being like "What if boots on the ground?!" and he's just like "We're waiting. Like bring it on fam."....because he's well aware how much of this is bluster on the US's part...Iran is not Iraq, it's mountainous as fuck...you think Vietnam was a tough terrain? Iran's geography would make it look like a cakewalk.

This post has been edited by QuickTidal: 06 March 2026 - 12:22 PM

[Tsundoku]

QuickTidal, on 06 March 2026 - 12:22 PM, said:

I think my favourite thing is the Iranian ambassador on the news calmly responding to the American anchor being like "What if boots on the ground?!" and he's just like "We're waiting. Like bring it on fam."....because he's well aware how much of this is bluster on the US's part...Iran is not Iraq, it's mountainous as fuck...you think Vietnam was a tough terrain? Iran's geography would make it look like a cakewalk.

Google "harold coyle sword point summary". I read it years ago (1988). It does not go how the US or anyone else would expect.
Admittedly it is a novel, but well based in the doctrine and technology of the time. But I don't see much difference if they do go boots on the ground now.

[QuickTidal]

Tsundoku, on 06 March 2026 - 12:28 PM, said:

QuickTidal, on 06 March 2026 - 12:22 PM, said:

I think my favourite thing is the Iranian ambassador on the news calmly responding to the American anchor being like "What if boots on the ground?!" and he's just like "We're waiting. Like bring it on fam."....because he's well aware how much of this is bluster on the US's part...Iran is not Iraq, it's mountainous as fuck...you think Vietnam was a tough terrain? Iran's geography would make it look like a cakewalk.

Google "harold coyle sword point summary". I read it years ago (1988). It does not go how the US or anyone else would expect.
Admittedly it is a novel, but well based in the doctrine and technology of the time. But I don't see much difference if they do go boots on the ground now.

Oh neat, I'll look into it.

I'm baffled anyone still believes the US when they say they win wars...no, you haven't, not since the revolutionary one...every single war has been a long drawn out multiple decade fiasco that always leaves the country invaded in much more dire straights, and the US that much poorer.

[the broken]

'No more long invasions' is probably the one universal bipartisan opinion in the US, not going to happen.

Does anyone know of any satellite analysis of Tehran examining bombing damage?

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Werthead, on 05 March 2026 - 06:20 PM, said:

South Korea is reliant on 1.6 million barrels per day through Hormuz and is believed to have pretty much zilch in reserve.

Quote

A [South Korean] government official explained, "According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), we hold a 208-day reserve of oil, which is considered to provide a sufficient buffer for supply crises."

https://www.asiae.co...030415045029017

And on top of that, today:

Quote

South Korea [announced it] will import more than 6 million barrels of crude oil from the United Arab Emirates [...] the presidential office said Friday.

https://www.mk.co.kr...siness/11975804

I got lucky and sold a lot of my FLKR (South Korea ETF) shares the day before the US and Israel started attacking (granted, I'd wanted to rebalance anyway). There's been a huge correction since then.

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 06 March 2026 - 02:39 PM

[Lady Bliss]

Russia is loving all this and I suspect they are goading Iran on and possibly offering some kind of support. This whole Middle East war can only benefit Russia in their goals of taking Ukraine.

[Werthead]

Qatar have said they believe the conflict will spell disaster for the global economy if it goes on more than a few weeks, maybe even more than a few more days. The Gulf States in general seem to be divided between de-escalation and also joining the attacks to degrade Iran's capabilities more quickly. But with another tanker hit off the coast of Iran, and the tugboat trying to help it also hit, nobody is buying US guarantees they can escort ships in and out of the Gulf safely. The Gulf States have also now frozen billions in Iranian assets.

American intelligence believes that Russia is providing Iran realtime information on the position of American assets in the region. Chinese open-source satellite companies are providing their information publicly anyway.

Trump has demanded Iran's unconditional surrender. Weirdly, Iran has not complied so far.

Three storage tanks destroyed at Fujairah in the UAE, on the Gulf of Oman coast. Fujairah is the alternate terminal for offloading oil if the main Gulf terminals are offline.

Trump has confirmed that the United States is accepting an offer of help from Ukraine in repelling drone attacks in the Gulf (irony metre overloading).

Dubai has 10 days' worth of fresh food remaining as Gulf ports and airports are either shut down or about to shut down. The status of the other Gulf countries is unclear. Transporting food and other supplies by land is problematic and the distances immense.

[Lady Bliss]

I think Trump, Netanyahu, Xi, and Putin have privately divided up the world and are playing all sides to get it. US gets the Americas, Netanyahu gets the Middle East, Putin gets Europe, and Xi gets Asia.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Werthead, on 06 March 2026 - 05:40 PM, said:

Qatar have said they believe the conflict will spell disaster for the global economy if it goes on more than a few weeks, maybe even more than a few more days.

Quote

U.S. Central Command[...] is asking the Pentagon to send more military intelligence officers to its headquarters [...] to support operations against Iran for at least 100 days but likely through September, according to a notification obtained by POLITICO.

[...] "What we've seen is a completely ad hoc operation where it appeared that nobody actually understood or believed that military action was imminent," said [...] a former senior U.S. diplomat who dealt with the Middle East. "It seems like they woke up on Saturday morning and decided that they were going to start a war."

[...] "It's been a complete dereliction of duty," said [...] a former U.S. ambassador to Lebanon who oversaw the evacuation of thousands of American citizens from that country in 2006. "Iran is a menace without question, but there was no imminent threat to us, and yet [Trump has] left thousands, perhaps hundreds of thousands of Americans in harm's way without planning how to get them out."

Inside the Trump administration's scramble to support its own war - POLITICO

Many have interpreted this to mean that Central Command believes the war is likely to last through September...

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 06 March 2026 - 06:07 PM

[Tiste Simeon]

 Lady Bliss, on 06 March 2026 - 05:58 PM, said:

I think Trump, Netanyahu, Xi, and Putin have privately divided up the world and are playing all sides to get it. US gets the Americas, Netanyahu gets the Middle East, Putin gets Europe, and Xi gets Asia.

I know it's not very Christian of me but I want them all to die. Like, quickly.

[Cause]

 QuickTidal, on 06 March 2026 - 12:22 PM, said:

I think my favourite thing is the Iranian ambassador on the news calmly responding to the American anchor being like "What if boots on the ground?!" and he's just like "We're waiting. Like bring it on fam."....because he's well aware how much of this is bluster on the US's part...Iran is not Iraq, it's mountainous as fuck...you think Vietnam was a tough terrain? Iran's geography would make it look like a cakewalk.

The long term occupations all fail but they are done in part to rebuild and claim a moral mission. Nothing stops the USA from putting boots on the ground, blowing every military and economic asset to hell and than just leaving. It will mean a million militias and terrorism skyrocketing but Iran will be smashed.

Realistically the invasion was a strategic failure the moment they didn’t have a serious natively Iranian fifth column. The best outcome now is probably a regular army general doing a coup and marginalizing the IRGC and clerics.

[HoosierDaddy]

Cause, on 06 March 2026 - 06:37 PM, said:

QuickTidal, on 06 March 2026 - 12:22 PM, said:

I think my favourite thing is the Iranian ambassador on the news calmly responding to the American anchor being like "What if boots on the ground?!" and he's just like "We're waiting. Like bring it on fam."....because he's well aware how much of this is bluster on the US's part...Iran is not Iraq, it's mountainous as fuck...you think Vietnam was a tough terrain? Iran's geography would make it look like a cakewalk.

The long term occupations all fail but they are done in part to rebuild and claim a moral mission. Nothing stops the USA from putting boots on the ground, blowing every military and economic asset to hell and than just leaving. It will mean a million militias and terrorism skyrocketing but Iran will be smashed.

Realistically the invasion was a strategic failure the moment they didn't have a serious natively Iranian fifth column. The best outcome now is probably a regular army general doing a coup and marginalizing the IRGC and clerics.

Drowning people often cause non-professionals trying to help to drown in their wild panic to stay afloat.

Trump and his admin are wildly drowning and will do anything to keep the public's eye elsewhere, including go to war with absolutely zero plan other than blow shit up.

I'm surprised we haven't taken to dropping boxes of AR-15s and AK-47s indiscriminately to try and foster an internal resistance like he threw out rolls of paper towels in Puerto Rico. I think that would require more planning than they had ready.

This post has been edited by HoosierDaddy: 06 March 2026 - 06:53 PM

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Cause, on 06 March 2026 - 06:37 PM, said:

The long term occupations all fail but they are done in part to rebuild and claim a moral mission. Nothing stops the USA from putting boots on the ground, blowing every military and economic asset to hell and than just leaving. It will mean a million militias and terrorism skyrocketing but Iran will be smashed.

Trump biographer Michael Wolff:

Quote

Several weeks into the Iraq War, after U.S. forces had swept to Baghdad, President George W. Bush landed on an aircraft carrier [...] festooned with the now infamous banner that read "Mission Accomplished"—of course, the war continued on for years more.

Since then, Trump has said—for many years, on constant repeat—"What a dummy, he claimed victory, he should have just gone home. And nobody would've cared what the fuck happened after that."

[...] The Ayatollah is dead. That's the win. Donald Trump will shortly claim victory—and what comes next ain't his problem.

Inside Trump's War in Iran - by Michael Wolff - HOWL The Beloved Duncery (okay it's actually just HOWL)

I still think it's most likely that Trump will chicken out and declare victory soon, then mostly leave off attacking Iran. And that Central Command leak is probably either a bluff to pressure the Iranians or being misinterpreted by those who think it indicates the war will probably last through September (so Trump can end it right before elections in November, and brag about having brought down the price of oil by 800%?...). Trump almost certainly realizes he either needs strong support from the military or strong support from red state voters... continuing the war through September seems likely to lose him substantial support among both.

[Cause]

Azath Vitr (D, on 06 March 2026 - 07:40 PM, said:

Cause, on 06 March 2026 - 06:37 PM, said:

The long term occupations all fail but they are done in part to rebuild and claim a moral mission. Nothing stops the USA from putting boots on the ground, blowing every military and economic asset to hell and than just leaving. It will mean a million militias and terrorism skyrocketing but Iran will be smashed.

Trump biographer Michael Wolff:

Quote

Several weeks into the Iraq War, after U.S. forces had swept to Baghdad, President George W. Bush landed on an aircraft carrier [...] festooned with the now infamous banner that read "Mission Accomplished"—of course, the war continued on for years more.

Since then, Trump has said—for many years, on constant repeat—"What a dummy, he claimed victory, he should have just gone home. And nobody would've cared what the fuck happened after that."

[...] The Ayatollah is dead. That's the win. Donald Trump will shortly claim victory—and what comes next ain't his problem.

Inside Trump's War in Iran - by Michael Wolff - HOWL The Beloved Duncery (okay it's actually just HOWL)

I still think it's most likely that Trump will chicken out and declare victory soon, then mostly leave off attacking Iran. And that Central Command leak is probably either a bluff to pressure the Iranians or being misinterpreted by those who think it indicates the war will probably last through September (so Trump can end it right before elections in November, and brag about having brought down the price of oil by 800%?...). Trump almost certainly realizes he either needs strong support from the military or strong support from red state voters... continuing the war through September seems likely to lose him substantial support among both.

Unless he announces the cure for Cancer in the next 6 months there is nothing I can imagine that will save the house, or senate even, for republicans come midterms.

[Tiste Simeon]

 Cause, on 06 March 2026 - 07:52 PM, said:

Unless he announces the cure for Cancer in the next 6 months there is nothing I can imagine that will save the house, or senate even, for republicans come midterms.

Didn't they cut research funding for cancer?

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Cause, on 06 March 2026 - 07:52 PM, said:

Azath Vitr (D, on 06 March 2026 - 07:40 PM, said:

I still think it's most likely that Trump will chicken out and declare victory soon, then mostly leave off attacking Iran. And that Central Command leak is probably either a bluff to pressure the Iranians or being misinterpreted by those who think it indicates the war will probably last through September (so Trump can end it right before elections in November, and brag about having brought down the price of oil by 800%?...). Trump almost certainly realizes he either needs strong support from the military or strong support from red state voters... continuing the war through September seems likely to lose him substantial support among both.

Unless he announces the cure for Cancer in the next 6 months there is nothing I can imagine that will save the house, or senate even, for republicans come midterms.

... except an auto-coup. For which he'd most likely require the support of the military...

[Mentalist]

Azath Vitr (D, on 06 March 2026 - 07:40 PM, said:

Cause, on 06 March 2026 - 06:37 PM, said:

The long term occupations all fail but they are done in part to rebuild and claim a moral mission. Nothing stops the USA from putting boots on the ground, blowing every military and economic asset to hell and than just leaving. It will mean a million militias and terrorism skyrocketing but Iran will be smashed.

Trump biographer Michael Wolff:

Quote

Several weeks into the Iraq War, after U.S. forces had swept to Baghdad, President George W. Bush landed on an aircraft carrier [...] festooned with the now infamous banner that read "Mission Accomplished"—of course, the war continued on for years more.

Since then, Trump has said—for many years, on constant repeat—"What a dummy, he claimed victory, he should have just gone home. And nobody would've cared what the fuck happened after that."

[...] The Ayatollah is dead. That's the win. Donald Trump will shortly claim victory—and what comes next ain't his problem.

Inside Trump's War in Iran - by Michael Wolff - HOWL The Beloved Duncery (okay it's actually just HOWL)

I still think it's most likely that Trump will chicken out and declare victory soon, then mostly leave off attacking Iran. And that Central Command leak is probably either a bluff to pressure the Iranians or being misinterpreted by those who think it indicates the war will probably last through September (so Trump can end it right before elections in November, and brag about having brought down the price of oil by 800%?...). Trump almost certainly realizes he either needs strong support from the military or strong support from red state voters... continuing the war through September seems likely to lose him substantial support among both.

The trick is, you can't unilaterally end the war.

US can stop bombing Iran and take the ships back to the Western hemisphere; but that doesn't mean Iran will stop droning American bases in the Gulf states, or open the Strait of Hormuzfor shipping.

There's really no "win" scenario, unless Iran agrees to back off (or an actual revolution happens, which doesn't feel likely ATM). And inciting invasions to foment ethnic strife won't solve this, b/c it doesn't take much to send drones to the Gulf states, or into tankers in the Strait- you don't need a fully functioning bureaucracy for this, you just need autonomous military cells that can keep functioning even if the whole country plunges into a free-for-all civil war.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Mentalist, on 06 March 2026 - 09:15 PM, said:

The trick is, you can't unilaterally end the war.

US can stop bombing Iran and take the ships back to the Western hemisphere; but that doesn't mean Iran will stop droning American bases in the Gulf states, or open the Strait of Hormuzfor shipping.

There's really no "win" scenario, unless Iran agrees to back off (or an actual revolution happens, which doesn't feel likely ATM). And inciting invasions to foment ethnic strife won't solve this, b/c it doesn't take much to send drones to the Gulf states, or into tankers in the Strait- you don't need a fully functioning bureaucracy for this, you just need autonomous military cells that can keep functioning even if the whole country plunges into a free-for-all civil war.

Iran has reportedly already indirectly reached out to the US to negotiate.

However if the US stops attacking Iran but Israel continues attacking them then that would seem to be strong incentive for Iran to continue...

[Lady Bliss]

Welll, the price of gas has gone up a dollar a gallon already in a week.