[Werthead]

The USS Gerald R. Ford carrier group passed through the Straits of Gibraltar this morning and is now in the western Mediterranean. That means it could be in a position to support strikes on Iran tomorrow or Sunday from the central or eastern Mediterranean, useful if its primary goal is to launch fighters to intercept munitions headed towards Israel. For direct strikes on Iran, being in the Indian Ocean would be better, so we'll see if they stay in the Med or pass through the Suez Canal into the Red Sea, which will take a few more days.

Readings from insiders seem to be set that Trump is favouring military action but has not 100% made the decision, which could come at any time (the ten days thing is a typical Trumpian negotiating tactic, not a hard deadline).

[Abyss]

Let's see... Supreme Court slaps down his tariffs, his AG is a worldwide laughing stock, ICE being actively compared to gestapo, Epstein files raising epsteiny allegations, Cuba.... yeah i'd guess the bombers will be in the air any minute now.

[Whisperzzzzzzz]

Most peaceful president ever tho!

[Tsundoku]

Ended all the wars ever. Believe me.

[Werthead]

Once the Ford is on station, the USA will have over a third of its totally deployable combat air power on the planet in-theatre. Add in bombers flying from the US mainland direct, and the US will be able to bring to bear roughly 40% of its total military airpower against Iran.

The US has only deployed this much aerial firepower previously against Iraq in 1990 and 2003, and far more than they did against Afghanistan in 2001. The US has never deployed this amount of firepower or even close to it, and not used it.

There's also reporting that Iran's offer has been to lower enrichment and only conduct it at low-grade locations around the country. Trump likely would see this as insufficient.

There has also been a rising number of protests again. After several low-key weeks, there were over twenty protests in cities around the country, possibly as anticipation of a strike rises.

Six F-22s transitioned through RAF Lakenheath in the UK today, likely headed for the region.

A key difference here is that in previous military engagements, even Iraq which was launched under highly dubious circumstances, the United States and its allies had a pretty open public debate about what was going on. Maybe the US would ignore everyone and attack anyway (as they did, ultimately disastrously, in 2003), but at least there was talk going on.

Right now the US is about to hit Iran (a country almost four times the size of Iraq with over twice the population with a vastly larger and more capable military) with everything it has, at least in the air, sparking possible regional chaos and the deaths of hundreds of US servicemen and Israeli civilians, and there's barely been any discussion of the military, political or economic objectives or how to impose them on Iran without a full-scale land invasion, which at least is not on the cards at the moment.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 22 February 2026 - 12:46 AM

[Cause]

My understanding of doctrine would be that’s the intended maximum they would ever deploy. They are supposed to be ready to fight a two front war at all times. 33% of the fleet for the eastern front, 33% for the western front and 33% to allow them to rotate the forces.

In any event this just shows how over prepared for any war the US is. Iran would be smashed in a week if they decide to go full out anyway. The only question is if there’s any plan for what comes after. Based on history, No!

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Quote

Trump has told advisers that if diplomacy or any initial targeted U.S. attack does not lead Iran to give in to his demands that it give up its nuclear program, he will consider a much bigger attack in coming months intended to drive that country's leaders from power, people briefed on internal administration deliberations said.

[...] Though no final decisions have been made, advisers said, Mr. Trump has been leaning toward conducting an initial strike in coming days [...]

Multiple U.S. officials said that for now, the plans for a commando raid had been shelved.

Army, Navy and Air Force officials have also raised concerns about the impact that a protracted war with Iran, or just remaining poised for such a conflict, could have on the readiness of Navy ships, scarce Patriot antimissile defenses, and overstretched transport and surveillance planes.

[...] Trump told advisers, he would leave open the possibility of a military assault later this year intended to help topple Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader.
There are doubts even inside the administration about whether that goal can be accomplished with airstrikes alone.
https://www.nytimes....ike-attack.html

.. new large-scale ground war just in time for the midterms?

Will he take inspiration from Putin's campaign against Chechnya and stage false-flag terrorist attacks within the United States? Probably not, but I wouldn't put it past him...

https://en.wikipedia...owing_Up_Russia

[Werthead]

Trump apparently gave Iran 48 hours to come to the table or face military action a couple of days ago. That new deadline runs out tonight, despite talks being planned for Thursday. The insider talk is that many of the senior US military commanders are telling Trump that they cannot guarantee a successful decapitation strike on Iran and the danger of regional escalation is very real. Economic forecasts are saying that in the event of a strike and Iran closing the Straits of Hormuz, oil prices will jump from their already-inflated current price of ~$70 a barrel to around $110 or higher, with a systemic shock on the world economy possible.

At the same time, the Lebanese government is apparently trying to restrain Hezbollah from attacking Israel with rockets. Israeli insider chatter is that they will not join in a first strike on Iran but a retaliation strike against Israel will trigger a full-scale intervention by Israel in the conflict, with the goal of destroying Iran militarily.

The USS Gerald R. Ford has reached Crete and should be sailing east soon, but not fast enough to reach the Gulf in less than a day. That suggests its goal is not to reach the Arabian Sea to reinforce the Abraham Lincoln but to reach the coast of Israel and run intercept for incoming ordinance, and possibly hitting targets in Lebanon and Yemen.

Eleven US F-22 Raptors have arrived in Israel, probably the same ones that left Lakenheath last week.

[Maark Abbott]

Kind of wild to think that the sitting president of the USA is about to start another war with a foreign power to distract from the fact that he rapes children.

[Cause]

Maark Abbott, on 25 February 2026 - 07:14 AM, said:

Kind of wild to think that the sitting president of the USA is about to start another war with a foreign power to distract from the fact that he rapes children.

If that’s not a Casus belli in your book what the hell is

[Abyss]

Werthead, on 24 February 2026 - 09:03 PM, said:

...
At the same time, the Lebanese government is apparently trying to restrain Hezbollah from attacking Israel with rockets. ...

bcs that always works out so well for everyone involved.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Even a prolonged war and ground invasion would not be sufficient excuse for postponing the elections.

But multiple "terrorist attacks" supposedly on behalf of Iran?

Perhaps conveniently blowing up or poisoning the area around some polling places in Democratic cities---which would be likely targets for terrorist attacks anyway because of population density? Trump could claim that elections need to be postponed for "safety reasons", until polling places can be "secured".

Granted, if some of these attacks just happen to kill Republicans, Democrats, or Supreme Court justices who have defied Trump, they might not serve as effective false flags.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Alternatively, multiple "terrorist attacks" across densely populated Democratic cities in the days leading up to the election, and perhaps on election day itself, could be used to suppress Democratic voter turnout. Trump could also claim that the Democrats are involved with or support the Iranian regime and thus the "terrorist attacks". But if the timing and the locations seem too convenient for Trump, it might defeat the point of launching them as "false flags" to begin with... would they still provide sufficient plausible deniability for his followers and enablers?

[QuickTidal]

Hang on, didn't Trump and the GOP say that when they attacked Iran not to long ago that they OBLITERATED any capability they might have had to make Nuclear weapons? Like that was their whole as excuse...that Iran MIGHT be able to make a bomb....right?....Now they are once again saying "Iran is too close to making a nuclear bomb" ....which is it? Did your unsanctioned invasion and bombing of another country succeed in its goals as you said, or did you fucking lie again?

I hate just how transparent this is. This would be like Bush Jr going BACK into Iraq after the WMD thing mission accomplished shit...CNN would have never stopped talking about it...but these days the public just accepts it?

I don't know how many more times in my life I, as a member of the global community, can ask you Americans to get your house in order...but this is getting tiresome. I hope you NEVER have global power ever again after this. You obviously cannot handle it.

[Werthead]

Begun, the Epstein Wars have.

Venezuela was the prelude, Iran is the first part, Cuba probably next.

Netanyahu has gone on television and claimed that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has been killed. Waiting for confirmation on that. Khamenei was supposed to issue an address some hours ago which never happened, but it would not be surprising if the situation did not allow that. Any speech would likely be pre-recorded in a neutral studio setting.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 28 February 2026 - 07:15 PM

[Maark Abbott]

Cause, on 25 February 2026 - 10:56 AM, said:

Maark Abbott, on 25 February 2026 - 07:14 AM, said:

Kind of wild to think that the sitting president of the USA is about to start another war with a foreign power to distract from the fact that he rapes children.

If that's not a Casus belli in your book what the hell is

Uhhhhhhhhh usually when I'm fanatic materialist and they're fanatic spiritualist, I'm just a little guy

[Mentalist]

The sheer hubris of expecting that a single decapitating strike (even if it's successful, which is still in doubt atm) would cause such panic that a bunch of protesters could simply walk out and "take control of their country"



Like, if they were to airdrop thousands of guns for the opposition to use, I'd get it. It would still be opportunistic as fuck, but at least there'd be some logic to it.

Unless they were already in (advanced) talks with a faction on the inside that's ready to step in and take over, you won't get a regime change w/o boots on the ground.

Meanwhile, Iran is apparently locking down the straight of Hormuz. Expect oil prices to spike, and putler to be doing a victory jig in the kremlin.

[Werthead]

US Intelligence now seems to be confident that Khamenei is dead. According to US sources, they tracked 10 senior Iranian leaders to a meeting with Khamenei in or under his compound, and agreed with Israeli claims that this was a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to take them all out at once. The strikes had actually been pencilled in for several days from now and the whole timetable was moved up.

Some Iranian celebrations on the streets, with footage purportedly showing large crowds cheering in Bame Karaj, Kazerun and Isfahan. No IRGC or Basij units can be seen. Some reports that IRGC units have been ordered to disperse and stay away from their bases.

Some reports that Iranian missiles have hit Prince Sultan Airbase in Riyadh and been intercepted over Qatar. Israeli and US strikes are continuing, with a focus on Bandar Abbas.

Multiple Iranian missiles managed to penetrate the defences over Tel Aviv, possibly the alleged newer models seen earlier. 21 people wounded, 1 in critical condition. Astonishing nobody was killed.

The tower block in Bahrain hit earlier on has been evacuated. The whole building is now ablaze.

ETA: The intelligence showing Khamenei is dead reportedly comes from photographs taken by Iranian personnel on the scene and intercepted by Israeli and US intelligence sources. It's pretty clear that Iranian government circles have been compromised for some time. AI misinformation is possible, but I'd assume that would have been looked for.

ETA2: Video showing the Burj Al Arab hotel in Dubai, literally the most famous hotel in the country and possibly the second-most-famous building, burning after a drone strike. Some claims it's AI, but there are multiple videos from different angles that seem to show the same incident. Keeping an eye on this one in case it turns to be BS.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 28 February 2026 - 10:24 PM

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Iran has now confirmed that Khamenei was killed.

https://www.nytimes....n-strikes-trump

And I don't think he'd fake his death in order to increase his chances of survival, or in an attempt to rally the regime's supporters... I'd guess the overall effect on morale would be negative. Wonder if the Revolutionary Guard would answer a survey about that honestly... nah, I'm pretty sure they wouldn't.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Werthead, on 28 February 2026 - 09:50 PM, said:

According to US sources, they tracked 10 senior Iranian leaders to a meeting with Khamenei in or under his compound, and agreed with Israeli claims that this was a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to take them all out at once. The strikes had actually been pencilled in for several days from now and the whole timetable was moved up.

Reuters reported that Hegseth, Joint Chiefs of Staff General Dan Caine, and Trump were all at Mar-a-Lago on Saturday.

https://www.reuters....ays-2026-02-28/

They could have had a hole in one. Or all in one hole...

And Vance iirc was reportedly arguing against the war on Iran. Though if Iran had made him president, he probably would've felt obliged to at least make a show of attacking them....

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 01 March 2026 - 12:25 PM