[Malankazooie]

You guys ready for Mask Wars II: The Dumbpire Strikes Derp ?

[Garak]

Ok, what the actual hell is wrong with some people?

[Mezla PigDog]

Weird times in the UK with our case rate going down without a lockdown for the first time since the pandemic started. My money is in it being social issues rather than herd immunity at this point but I would be happy to be wrong.

I've been out and about a fair bit this week and generally wearing a mask indoors but I'd say only 20% of people are now.

[Macros]

Maybe a mix of the two
Plenty of people still keeping to their own little bubbles, but on the other hand plenty of people going full idiot mode.

[Macros]

Alas, most of the people being careful are people who have been vaccinated and wear masks. The people going full idiot mode are usually the ....well the fucking idiots

[Tsundoku]

Never go full retard Dumberican.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

'"Possible additional explanations are a seasonal weather effect and an early arrival of the school vacation effect," [...]

While mask wearing is less pronounced inside stores and restaurants, a look at Google mobility data finds U.K. movement much as it's been during the last few months. [...]

That suggests the economic benefits of opening up may not materially accelerate either.

"[...] the 'reopening trade,' i.e. companies such as those in the retail and hospitality sectors that have been among the early beneficiaries of the reopening of the U.K. economy, has largely run its course[...] some businesses may start to find that sustaining growth at these levels is challenging, especially when supports — such as the value-added-tax relief for the hospitality sector — are removed."'
https://www.marketwa...far-11627482711

[Malankazooie]

Dang, I was listening to the weekly news round-up in the car this morning (an every Friday morning thing) and the topic was all Covid related - Delta variant (as contagious as chickenpox they say) / some have started calling it "Covid 21" because they argue it has mutated to such a degree / anti-vaxxers / effect on the pending school year / possible new incentives to get people vaccinated ($500 cheques being spit-balled) / new mask mandates... you name it, it was all Covid for the hour long weekly round up. Usually the weekly round up covers a plethora of diverse topics that were newsworthy over the week that just was. Not this week. This sucks.

This post has been edited by Malankazooie: 30 July 2021 - 05:28 PM

[Mezla PigDog]

My sister has covid. She is 1 week in and feels worse every day which she says is quite scary as usually a respiratory virus is 3 or 4 days and then things turn around. She lives on her own and has literally just moved house so I've made her send me her address and check in routinely so I can call am ambulance for her if necessary as it's this point where things typically get better or go downhill. I expect she will be fine but symptoms kicked in the day after her second vaccine dose so she isn't as protected as she might be. It's a kicker to be 3 hours away and closer family members all being useless!

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Malankazooie, on 30 July 2021 - 05:27 PM, said:

Dang, I was listening to the weekly news round-up in the car this morning (an every Friday morning thing) and the topic was all Covid related - Delta variant (as contagious as chickenpox they say) / some have started calling it "Covid 21" because they argue it has mutated to such a degree / anti-vaxxers / effect on the pending school year / possible new incentives to get people vaccinated ($500 cheques being spit-balled) / new mask mandates... you name it, it was all Covid for the hour long weekly round up. Usually the weekly round up covers a plethora of diverse topics that were newsworthy over the week that just was. Not this week. This sucks.

Forever Covid 21!

If the pandemic restricts travel for long enough, maybe VR will finally really start taking off. Actually just today the Kensho VR index surprised me with its performance over the last year---up 146.01%, handily beating the tech sector (39.60% US, 39.28% global) and my robotics/automation ETF's (37.56%, 34.32%, 44.72% respectively---though they had already gone up dramatically) over the same time period. Might just be a coincidence that Zuckerberg's talking about transforming Facebook into primarily a VR/AR/metaverse company as Delta is surging.... Still cheaper than space flight. Especially if it can run off renewables... servers by geothermal geysers. Eventually VR will be better for all forms of human interaction---even (maybe especially even) sex.

[James Hutton]

Azath Vitr (D, on 31 July 2021 - 02:08 AM, said:

Eventually VR will be better for all forms of human interaction---even (maybe especially even) sex.

Press X to doubt.

[Macros]

He doesn't even know about the three shells, ha!



Liz, hope all turns out ok with the sister

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

One of my major concerns with the Delta variant is whether fomite transmission (from touching surfaces) will become a more significant risk. 'Real world' empirical data has suggested it's rare, but it's difficult to verify whether transmission was actually via surfaces.

So I was shocked to see this paper in Nature (published July 2021) which seems to argue that at least for asymptomatic people, for pre-Delta COVID-19 hand-to-facial membrane contact is the primary means by which it's spread, and fomite to hand to face should constitute 26% of viral dose indoors while inhalation should be only 9.5% (in the case of a single infected person in a household).

https://www.nature.c...598-021-93579-w

''26% [...] was received during indirect contact via fomites events [...] The contribution of the large droplet route [...] was negligible while the droplet nuclei transmission [inhalation of aerosolized particles ...] contributed 9.5% of the total viral dose.'

The paper appears to make no attempt to reconcile their 26% rate with empirical data suggesting otherwise.

Its main argument against inhalation being more significant seems to be the old WHO claim there would be more secondary infections (people not in contact). Paper assumes if it's not from inhalation it must be hand-to-face. But their model doesn't seem to be taking the distinction between superspreaders and most (pre-Delta) infected people into account. The vast majority of pre-Delta spread appeared to be from superspreaders or superspreader events (singing...). So secondary infections would be low for most individuals, but high for the ones actually spreading the disease. With Delta now perhaps we're all likely superspreaders.

The study's original contribution is based on stochastic simulations rather than empirical data, and gets its parameters for hand-to-face transmission from empirical studies on viruses that are not even closely related to COVID-19. Studies on coronaviruses, for example, show much lower hand-to-fomite transmission rates for coronaviruses (though they didn't test COVID-19 itself) than for norovirus, but this study's hand-to-fomite parameter cites a study on acinetobacter baumannii, which is not even a coronavirus.

'Human coronaviruses need organic materials to transfer efficiently between surfaces

[...] study[...] indicated that human coronaviruses do not transfer effectively from contaminated hands to contact surfaces without the presence of any organic material.

[... coronavirus] transfer to plastic did not occur. They explained the difference in the observations between steel and plastic to the surface porosity. "Viruses, in general, seem to be able to transfer more efficiently to non-porous surfaces and survive longer on these surfaces," [...]

The study finds that human coronaviruses are unlikely to spread from hands to food packaging and foods, so the risk of spreading the virus via this mode is low. When the virus is present in organic material, such as feces, the transfer becomes significantly more efficient. [...] The practice of proper hand hygiene should continue as it is sufficient to prevent the spread of viral infections even if fecal contamination exists.'

https://www.news-med...n-surfaces.aspx

Though second study did not test Covid-19 itself, and used latex gloves rather than hands. Also doesn't address whether sweaty hands would efficiently transfer coronaviruses---sweat contains urea and lactate, which are organic compounds, though IDK if the amount would be enough to make a difference.

The Nature study concludes that frequent handwashing or cleaning surfaces are highly effective interventions, if frequent enough: 'hand washing is expected to dramatically reduce the risk for infection if it occurs at a frequency higher than 40 min. Unfortunately, such frequent hand washing is unrealistic.'

However, the only 'real world' study I've found so far that supports handwashing found that frequency was not very important:

'there is still scarce evidence regarding hand hygiene in preventing individual COVID-19 infections. Hand hygiene is regarded as one of the most effective measures for transmissible disease prevention [18, 26]. Special emphases were placed on the timing and duration of cleaning in this study. Our data suggested that the most important protective factor for COVID-19 was the timing of hand hygiene practice and not the frequency. The habit of frequent handwashing after outdoor activities and before touching the mouth/nose area reduced the risk of infection by 97.9 and 69.7%, respectively. There is evidence that viruses can remain viable and infectious on surfaces for up to days, leading to plausible fomite transmission [27]. Transmission of the virus via contaminated surfaces was also proven to be a possible means other than via respiratory droplets from face-to-face contact [28, 29]. These results reiterate the importance of practising hand hygiene following outdoor activities, even if no obvious high-risk contact was noted, as the battlefield is limited not only to healthcare settings but also to asymptomatic or presymptomatic carriers in public places'

https://bmcpublichea...889-021-10680-5

However, that study seems to be arguing that *outdoor* transmission is significant, which contradicts other empirical data (could be reconciled if going 'outdoors' in the study usually included going inside someplace other than one's primary dwelling, but that doesn't appear to be addressed). It concludes that 'wearing a mask whenever outdoors' [...] 'should be advocated to the public to mitigate COVID-19 infection'. It was published April 29 2021. As with the Nature paper, there seems to be no or minimal reference to contradictory studies.

But I have wondered whether government organizations have a vested interest in downplaying the risk of fomite transmission, since it could harm vulnerable segments of the economy and require vast expenditures to mitigate.

Nature should have one of the most rigorous peer-review processes... and I know next to nothing about biology. It's created enough doubt I think I'll go back to cleaning surfaces (phone, etc.), frequent handwashing after going/when outside, avoiding surfaces when possible, never touching my face near eyes/mouth/nose with anything potentially exposed, etc.

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 01 August 2021 - 05:38 PM

[Mezla PigDog]

My sister is still alive although has barely eaten or taken a comfortable breath in 11 days. On the other side of the family we have officially confirmed anti-vaxxers.

You know people with comfortable families who are just generally nice and sensible? I couldn't tell you if I hate them or am just painfully jealous of them. Although I do wonder if they really exist.

[Macros]

They don't exist

[Macros]

 IMG-20210802-WA0000.jpg (114.15K)
Number of downloads: 0

[Tsundoku]

Mezla PigDog, on 01 August 2021 - 10:13 PM, said:

My sister is still alive although has barely eaten or taken a comfortable breath in 11 days. On the other side of the family we have officially confirmed anti-vaxxers.

You know people with comfortable families who are just generally nice and sensible? I couldn't tell you if I hate them or am just painfully jealous of them. Although I do wonder if they really exist.

Glad to hear your sis is still with us.

No anti-vaxxers or Trumptards et al in my family. Both sides. They're mostly quite nice and sensible, really. Pretty small family overall though, no Catholics afaik.
I'm the token fuckwit, but for completely different reasons.

[Cyphon]

Macros, on 02 August 2021 - 07:40 AM, said:

They don't exist

This.

[Cause]

Mezla PigDog, on 01 August 2021 - 10:13 PM, said:

My sister is still alive although has barely eaten or taken a comfortable breath in 11 days. On the other side of the family we have officially confirmed anti-vaxxers.

You know people with comfortable families who are just generally nice and sensible? I couldn't tell you if I hate them or am just painfully jealous of them. Although I do wonder if they really exist.

Sorry to hear it’s hitting your sister so hard.

I think anger at the unvaccinated is growing. They might soon face a backlash. Although I’m also not sure why people are so reluctant to cal a spade a spade.

The USA is recommending masks for even the vaccinated again to combat delta. People are asking if the vaccines work why do we still need to wear masks? The answer is simple, the vaccinated shouldn’t get severely ill and they won’t die but they can still spread it to the 50% of the country who won’t vaccinate. Just say that. Make it clear.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Cause, on 02 August 2021 - 05:15 PM, said:

Mezla PigDog, on 01 August 2021 - 10:13 PM, said:

My sister is still alive although has barely eaten or taken a comfortable breath in 11 days. On the other side of the family we have officially confirmed anti-vaxxers.

You know people with comfortable families who are just generally nice and sensible? I couldn't tell you if I hate them or am just painfully jealous of them. Although I do wonder if they really exist.

Sorry to hear it's hitting your sister so hard.

I think anger at the unvaccinated is growing. They might soon face a backlash. Although I'm also not sure why people are so reluctant to cal a spade a spade.

The USA is recommending masks for even the vaccinated again to combat delta. People are asking if the vaccines work why do we still need to wear masks? The answer is simple, the vaccinated shouldn't get severely ill and they won't die but they can still spread it to the 50% of the country who won't vaccinate. Just say that. Make it clear.

About 91% reduction in severe illness for Pfizer... hopefully 'more than10x less likely to be hospitalized' wouldn't be too difficult for most Americans to understand. (Maybe shorten to 'about 10x less likely'?)

https://www.forbes.c...study-suggests/