Mezla PigDog, on 20 October 2019 - 06:54 AM, said:
The deal could still go through though, right? They haven't voted it down, they voted to delay voting on it until no deal was off the table via an agreed extension. There is concern the hard liners could vote for the deal but then against it when it came back for second reading just before 31 October. The chap who tabled the vote for the delay says he probably will vote for it when it comes to it. I think there are enough Labour MPs in Leave areas that will vote for it, it could succeed.
I have barely been following it. Brexit fatigue is a real thing.
He could absolutely get a deal. Mostly I think he's counting on two basic facts:
1. The realistaion in Westminster that a second referendum is increasingly plausible in light of the opposition rejecting Johnson's attempts to push for an election. Interesting how after weeks of European leaders suggesting that Johnson wasn't making serious proposals the UK government is suddenly making concessions to try and get a deal to happen.
2. The fact that Johnson is a far better populist than May. Johnson could be celebrated for securing a deal that would've been dead before May proposed it - and this also means he can more plausibly promise electoral success. He's also taken advantage of the awkward position the opposition has put itself in. A referendum is the main threat to his position but the opposition took a long time to come around to that.
Numbers wise... predictions are close but it does seem like it could get through.