[Path-Shaper]

Eloth, on 04 November 2014 - 08:36 PM, said:

Path-Shaper, on 04 November 2014 - 08:17 PM, said:

The program I use for processing this game randomized the numbers of each player again without me noticing. Since I doubt I can keep that straight throughout the game, you will all get a new number. Sorry that I didn't notice earlier.

Is this a one time event?

Yes, it randomizes things at the beginning of each game and keeps them that way, which I didn't knew when I wrote the role-pms.

Serc, on 04 November 2014 - 08:37 PM, said:

Path-Shaper, on 04 November 2014 - 08:17 PM, said:

The program I use for processing this game randomized the numbers of each player again without me noticing. Since I doubt I can keep that straight throughout the game, you will all get a new number. Sorry that I didn't notice earlier.

Does that mean the list you posted before with the changes in % are true for the new number and not the old one?

Yes.

[Eloth]

I have no idea how we are supposed to vote. Everything seams like blind chance at the moment. So I think I will do a blind vote.

Vote player seven

I have no idea who that is, but I can say I don't like that number. Filthy, Nasty, SEVENSIES!!!!!

[Path-Shaper]

Votes that aren't for a currently used gaming alt or a vote for night will not be counted.

[Eloth]

Path-Shaper, on 04 November 2014 - 08:46 PM, said:

Votes that aren't for a currently used gaming alt or a vote for night will not be counted.

Damn it!!!!


remove vote

[Ruse]

Eloth, on 04 November 2014 - 08:43 PM, said:

I have no idea how we are supposed to vote. Everything seams like blind chance at the moment. So I think I will do a blind vote.

Vote player seven

I have no idea who that is, but I can say I don't like that number. Filthy, Nasty, SEVENSIES!!!!!

Well, I put out a suggestion for what we can do today regarding lynching and actions, but no one actually seems willing to discuss.

[Eloth]

Ruse, on 04 November 2014 - 09:45 PM, said:

Eloth, on 04 November 2014 - 08:43 PM, said:

I have no idea how we are supposed to vote. Everything seams like blind chance at the moment. So I think I will do a blind vote.

Vote player seven

I have no idea who that is, but I can say I don't like that number. Filthy, Nasty, SEVENSIES!!!!!

Well, I put out a suggestion for what we can do today regarding lynching and actions, but no one actually seems willing to discuss.

I like it, but the dice roll turns it in to a crap shoot.....ba, dum, tish.

[Telas]

Lynching someone probably will not be beneficial to to town right now. I agree with Ruse that the safest bet would be to we night and coordinate our finds/kills and see how the percentages change. Since everyone has a higher probability of being town no one should object.

[Galayn Lord]

Serc, on 04 November 2014 - 08:37 PM, said:

Path-Shaper, on 04 November 2014 - 08:17 PM, said:

The program I use for processing this game randomized the numbers of each player again without me noticing. Since I doubt I can keep that straight throughout the game, you will all get a new number. Sorry that I didn't notice earlier.

Does that mean the list you posted before with the changes in % are true for the new number and not the old one?

what he said

[Telas]

Also, there has to be an ultimate reality that we are nearing, one where this game is either won or lost. The other realities are there just for the percentages. So that means that the roles have to be predefined, no? Because, technically, we should be able to lynch the scum at any point in the game, and they shouldnt change. The only thing that changed is our view on the players via the percentages.

Does that make sense or no?

[Path-Shaper]

It is Day 1. 24 hours and 15 minutes left.
Players aktive: Alkend, Ampelas, Eloth, Galayn Lord, Kalse, Korabas, Merrid, Meanas, Omtose, Ruse, Serc, Telas
7 votes needed for a lynch.

This post has been edited by Path-Shaper: 05 November 2014 - 10:05 AM

[Galayn Lord]

Telas, on 04 November 2014 - 11:13 PM, said:

So that means that the roles have to be predefined, no?

Yes and no. Roles are predefined, but the players assigned to those roles are not.

The mix-up with the player numbers tells us a couple of things.

Liz is using a program, so it really can be as complex as it sounds. We'll toss out Thryllan due to the modkill. There are 12 players and 12 roles.

the roles are:

• ScumA,
  
• ScumB,
  
• Finder,
  
• RIa
  
• RIb
  
• RIc
  
• RId
  
• RIe
  
• RIf
  
• RIg
  
• RIh
  
• RIi

We start with 12 to the 12th power of possible combinations. (The vast majority of those are rearrangements of the RI roles; something which I'm assuming the program is counting as a different equation.)

Each time we submit orders, the program is taking those orders, processing them and eliminating all realities (rows in the spreadsheet) that contain contradictions. It reports the number of realities (rows) that do not contain contradictions.

Assume we lynch Fener. The program does it's thing and assigns Fener the role RIc. Since it was a lynch, it is a fixed point and all realities that have in them Fener as any role other than RIc are eliminated.

[Telas]

Yeah but we cant be just jumping around realities. We have to have one that matters. Why would Fener be assigned as RI if we lynched him? Why not one of the roles? So there has to be a reality that has our roles and players already defined and the program is just using percentages as a means of showing us the truer value of said reality.

[Galayn Lord]

Lizradusa, on 29 October 2014 - 08:07 PM, said:

snip

Current status on all players:
Player - alive - dead -town - scum
1.........100%....0%...85%.....15%
2.........100%....0%...85%.....15%
3.........100%....0%...85%.....15%
4.........100%....0%...85%.....15%
5.........100%....0%...85%.....15%
6.........100%....0%...85%.....15%
7.........100%....0%...85%.....15%
8.........100%....0%...85%.....15%
9.........100%....0%...85%.....15%
10.......100%....0%...85%.....15%
11.......100%....0%...85%.....15%
12.......100%....0%...85%.....15%
13.......100%....0%...85%.....15%

Number of possible realities: 1630

Path-Shaper, on 04 November 2014 - 11:38 AM, said:

Current status on all players:
Player - alive - dead -town - scum
1.........100%....0%...85%.....15%
2.........100%....0%...82%.....18%
3.........100%....0%...85%.....15%
4..........82%...18%...90%.....10%
5..........78%...22%...83%.....17%
6.........100%....0%...82%.....18%
7..........91%....9%...83%.....17%
8..........88%...12%...81%.....19%
9..........92%....8%...82%.....18%
10.......100%....0%...88%.....12%
11.......100%....0%...77%.....23%
12.......100%....0%...79%.....21%
13.........0%...100%..100%.....0%

Number of possible realities: 773

The death of one person had a major effect on the number of possible realities. This effect will decline as the bodies pile up (I think). In my opinion, we should definitely lynch today to reduce that number again.

Since we really don't have anything to go on I say we go low poster. Merrid and Meanas have one each.

Vote Merrid

[Galayn Lord]

Telas, on 04 November 2014 - 11:51 PM, said:

Yeah but we cant be just jumping around realities. We have to have one that matters. Why would Fener be assigned as RI if we lynched him? Why not one of the roles? So there has to be a reality that has our roles and players already defined and the program is just using percentages as a means of showing us the truer value of said reality.

You're missing my point. Liz is using a program that is random.org if random.org was a meth addicted steroid abuser.

Until somebody is actually dead, such as a lynch or modkill, we all have percentages of town, scum, finder. But the moment somebody dies and the program assigns them a role, then that role is permanent and all other realities cease to exist.


Take Thryllan. At the modkill, the program randomized the list and assigned Thryllan to role RI_c Since it was a death, it became fixed and the role RI_c is removed from the game.

So if we lynch today, whatever role is assigned to that player will also be eliminated as 'open' for everyone else. Hence it is important to lynch today. Because it eliminates a role from the randomizer and takes multiple realities with it.

[Telas]

Why not wait and see how the percentages change without lynching someone? Were not in a hurry here.

I'm not gonna vote anyone for now.

[Telas]

So your saying that a role is assigned only at death and the program assigns the role by using the percentages at that time?

[Galayn Lord]

I give up. I suck at probability maths anyways, so trying to explain a concept that I don't grasp myself is dumb.

[Ruse]

Telas, on 05 November 2014 - 12:10 AM, said:

So your saying that a role is assigned only at death and the program assigns the role by using the percentages at that time?

I think the easiest way to think about it is like this. Say someone was 80% town, 20% scum. We lynch them. A one-hundred sided die then gets rolled. If the die turns up 1-80, then the person lynched comes up town. But if die rolls 81-100 then that lynched person comes up scum.

So the likelihood is that we'd get the 'reality' where they are town, but there is a chance we'd enter the reality where they are scum.


It's not as simple as that I don't think, but that's how I conceptualise it.

[Ruse]

I'm going to tell PS that I want to target Merrid with a kill. I would choose Meanas but they are more likely to be modkilled at this point, as Merrid has posted (just the once) more recently. The only reason I'm selecting them is because they've had the least amount of input (aside from Meanas). As we're all mostly town, I think that's the "fairest" way to select someone to target with a kill.

[Korabas]

Telas, on 04 November 2014 - 11:51 PM, said:

Yeah but we cant be just jumping around realities. We have to have one that matters. Why would Fener be assigned as RI if we lynched him? Why not one of the roles? So there has to be a reality that has our roles and players already defined and the program is just using percentages as a means of showing us the truer value of said reality.

I actually agree with this statement. It looks like the truest reality is the one that was predetermined before this started, as players it is our goal is to find this. However, this early nobody knows exactly who they are in particular yet.