[Telas]

Either way it seems like we have to wait and try to decipher.

I am also going to put a kill on Merrid then and going to find Alkend because he is first alphabetically.

We should probably start stacking our kills and finds to see how it effects the percentage. Also, if we do finds on one person and no lynch and the percentage drastically changed for that one number we can figure our which alt is which player.

[Korabas]

A question for all from their point of view, if we lynch a person, yes it reduces a certain amount of realities. However, if we all preform actions with more people does that reduce EVEN more realities. Which reduces the most amount of realities is what I am getting at logically. Looking at this if we lynch the whole town, before reducing the overall amount of realities to the lowest number, that is really bad as we are fighting static with the random dice roles. Make sense?

[Telas]

Yeah, thats why I think if we have the ability to influence the percentage without loosing players right now it will be better for later in game.

Technically we dont even have to use our kill orders right? What would happen if we just put out finds?

[Ruse]

Telas, on 05 November 2014 - 02:23 AM, said:

Either way it seems like we have to wait and try to decipher.

I am also going to put a kill on Merrid then and going to find Alkend because he is first alphabetically.

We should probably start stacking our kills and finds to see how it effects the percentage. Also, if we do finds on one person and no lynch and the percentage drastically changed for that one number we can figure our which alt is which player.

What an innovative idea, did you think that up all by yourself?

Telas, on 05 November 2014 - 02:33 AM, said:

Yeah, thats why I think if we have the ability to influence the percentage without loosing players right now it will be better for later in game.

Technically we dont even have to use our kill orders right? What would happen if we just put out finds?

I'm not sure if we're allowed not to submit. In the OP, PS says that we all have to submit finds and kills. Worth asking PS I suppose.

[Korabas]

Telas, on 05 November 2014 - 02:33 AM, said:

Technically we dont even have to use our kill orders right? What would happen if we just put out finds?

I think we have to look at this from a different point of view, what we want to do is all target different people for kills and finds. This would reduce the most amount of realities the quickest, if my logic is sound.

[Telas]

Quote

What an innovative idea, did you think that up all by yourself?

Its not like its fucken quantum mechanics.

[Telas]

Your logic might be sound, but all I see is text.

I would think that spreading or stacking would change the percentages and realities equally across the game as were still giving the same amount of kill/find orders. Stacking might be more useful tying percentage change with actual peeps.

I'm off now, wont be back until next game day.

[Ampelas]

Telas, on 05 November 2014 - 02:23 AM, said:

Either way it seems like we have to wait and try to decipher.

I am also going to put a kill on Merrid then and going to find Alkend because he is first alphabetically.

We should probably start stacking our kills and finds to see how it effects the percentage. Also, if we do finds on one person and no lynch and the percentage drastically changed for that one number we can figure our which alt is which player.

I already did this on night 0. Just split the group in half and picked the first two that come up. Then moved them to last for night 1.

[Serc]

So we all put in a Kill order on merrid and a find on Alkend then?

Not really sure that any course of action is the best move for town other than voting night a bit until we have something approaching actual teams. At the moment the potential scum can't do anything because they aren't scum most of the time, the longer we keep that statement true the more data we will have to work with later on.

[Omtose]

So if I'm reading this right, people want to test the realities in a couple of different ways:

Kill/Find the same two targets.

Or

Spread them out all over the place.

Somebody has to point out the obvious party-pooping truth:

Either way, I don't know how useful that would be because there are going to be non-conformists in the mix, either by disagreement as to what to do, or they are afraid (hoping?) they will end up scum,a nd they don't want the circumstances to have fucked them over once that's certain.

[Ruse]

Omtose, on 05 November 2014 - 08:48 AM, said:

So if I'm reading this right, people want to test the realities in a couple of different ways:

Kill/Find the same two targets.

Or

Spread them out all over the place.

Somebody has to point out the obvious party-pooping truth:

Either way, I don't know how useful that would be because there are going to be non-conformists in the mix, either by disagreement as to what to do, or they are afraid (hoping?) they will end up scum,a nd they don't want the circumstances to have fucked them over once that's certain.

No problems without solutions! Otherwise you're just being a negative nancy

[Path-Shaper]

It is Day 1.13 hours and 31 minutes left.
Players aktive: Alkend, Ampelas, Eloth, Galayn Lord, Kalse, Korabas, Merrid, Meanas, Omtose, Ruse, Serc, Telas
7 votes needed for a lynch.

1 vote for Merrid (GL)



Regarding the option not to kill at night: You have to kill every night. If you don't submit a killing order I will randomly asign you one without telling you. The only exception to this are days, that are significantly shorter than 36 hours, due to a fast lynch.

Regarding rules and resolution: I put all the rules on how things are resolved into the OP and I keep to that. If you are unsure on what I meant or how something works in detail, ask and I'll happily try to explain it better.

This post has been edited by Path-Shaper: 05 November 2014 - 10:07 AM

[Serc]

Vote Night

There has been time enough to get what we are going to get out of today (not much at all) and we need the information more than we need a random (in more than 1 sense of the word) lynch.

Maybe once we start figuring out how the probabilities work we can do something more than twiddling our thumbs, but until then I am not prepared to start killing people who are almost certainly going to come up town.

[Path-Shaper]

It is Day 1. 11 hours and 20 minutes left.
Players aktive: Alkend, Ampelas, Eloth, Galayn Lord, Kalse, Korabas, Merrid, Meanas, Omtose, Ruse, Serc, Telas
7 votes needed for a lynch.

1 vote for Merrid (GL)
1 vote for Night (Serc)

[Alkend]

I must say I quite enjoy the unease we all have with the mechanics and with the options. It feels like we have nothing to do, but at the same time, we ARE playing a town vs scum game, just one we don't know the rules for. Also, the later in the game it gets, the more players will want to be scum, I guess.

@ Serc: lynching however is the only way to lower the suspect pool and force a die role, complete with the changes of town/scum percentages. With 2 out of 13, the possibility of being scum is the smallest, it will increase over time for all of us, just faster for some than for others, I guess.

As such, if you want a clearer defined game, not lynching doesn't make sense.

Vote Serc

for being a goody-two-shoes.

[Ruse]

Alkend, on 05 November 2014 - 02:09 PM, said:

I must say I quite enjoy the unease we all have with the mechanics and with the options. It feels like we have nothing to do, but at the same time, we ARE playing a town vs scum game, just one we don't know the rules for. Also, the later in the game it gets, the more players will want to be scum, I guess.

@ Serc: lynching however is the only way to lower the suspect pool and force a die role, complete with the changes of town/scum percentages. With 2 out of 13, the possibility of being scum is the smallest, it will increase over time for all of us, just faster for some than for others, I guess.

As such, if you want a clearer defined game, not lynching doesn't make sense.

Vote Serc

for being a goody-two-shoes.

I would argue that final statement needs revision. Not a clearer defined game, but rather one which is more quickly defined.

However, the downside of that is that you knowingly sacrifice a lot of townies fast before you can get to a point where you can narrow down scum to perhaps two or three suspects. But by that point, because of those actions, scum are also only one or two deaths away from winning - i.e. it might be defined more quickly, but we'll also be likely on or around d-day.

So it would be rather like a badly-played mafia game, lynching randomly people who you know will most likely turn up town, without using or relying on any in-thread information.

[Meanas]

Here getting caught up.

[Path-Shaper]

It is Day 1. 9 hours and 4 minutes left.
Players aktive: Alkend, Ampelas, Eloth, Galayn Lord, Kalse, Korabas, Merrid, Meanas, Omtose, Ruse, Serc, Telas
7 votes needed for a lynch.

1 vote for Merrid (GL)
1 vote for Night (Serc)
1 vote for Serc (Alkend)

[Kalse]

So what has happened? People have realised that roles are not clear cut and have hopefully looked at the actions they performed and seen how it affected their town/scum status. They can make limited deductions as to which player the one they targeted with a NK was based on the % change in aliveness. Except for Telas who seems to be struggling.

Should we lynch or should we not lynch?

Lynching gives us between 77 and 90% chance of a dead town.
Lynching town takes each of us from 16% (current default) to 18% chance of being scum (other modifiers excluded)

Lynching gives us between 10% and 23% chance of a dead scum.
Lynching scum takes each of us from 16% (current default) to 9% chance of being scum (other modifiers excluded)

I see no net benefit at this point to a lynch. We have at very best* a 23% chance of hitting scum. That's worse than the normal random lynch in M&P.

It is clear the actions at Night have an effect on our %ages. Would players 8, 11 and 12 care to enlighten us as to what they did? Or players 4 and 10? I thought not.

*assuming we can identify who player 11 is

Vote Night

Will be around off and on for 8 hours to switch if needed if thread decided a dead'un is what they want as good townies

[Galayn Lord]

Ruse, on 05 November 2014 - 02:15 PM, said:

Alkend, on 05 November 2014 - 02:09 PM, said:

I must say I quite enjoy the unease we all have with the mechanics and with the options. It feels like we have nothing to do, but at the same time, we ARE playing a town vs scum game, just one we don't know the rules for. Also, the later in the game it gets, the more players will want to be scum, I guess.

@ Serc: lynching however is the only way to lower the suspect pool and force a die role, complete with the changes of town/scum percentages. With 2 out of 13, the possibility of being scum is the smallest, it will increase over time for all of us, just faster for some than for others, I guess.

As such, if you want a clearer defined game, not lynching doesn't make sense.

Vote Serc

for being a goody-two-shoes.

I would argue that final statement needs revision. Not a clearer defined game, but rather one which is more quickly defined.

However, the downside of that is that you knowingly sacrifice a lot of townies fast before you can get to a point where you can narrow down scum to perhaps two or three suspects. But by that point, because of those actions, scum are also only one or two deaths away from winning - i.e. it might be defined more quickly, but we'll also be likely on or around d-day.

So it would be rather like a badly-played mafia game, lynching randomly people who you know will most likely turn up town, without using or relying on any in-thread information.

It's day one. Day one lynches are essentially random anyway.

My math isn't up to the task but deaths, I think, will reduce the number of realities exponentially. But inversely. The modkill cut them almost in half. The next death will cut them by 1/4. The one after by 1/8, etc.

So we need a lynch. Which, strangely enough, is what town always needs. It's our weapon. Regardless of whether you think that the roles were predefined or not, voting night is still scummy.

Remove Vote

Vote Serc