[Ampelas]

At this stage I can write off two members of more than likely being scum. With me that is 3 out of 12 people who are more likely town at this point.

Galayn Lord, what did your find say about Serc? We could rule out another one for now, on this day who is scum if he came up town? Or would every player come up town on night 0?

[Kalse]

Ampelas, on 04 November 2014 - 02:02 PM, said:

Serc, on 04 November 2014 - 01:13 PM, said:

So finds on town made them more likely to be town, and finds on scum made them less likely to be town, while kill orders from scum also made them more likely to be scum? Does that sound right?

No does not sound right to me.

I did my find on Alkend and he came back as town but that does not mean he will stay that way.

Do we have a tame physicist (or at a pinch a statistician) in the game?

Amp worse than that - he came back town on the chance of you being a finder. If you're not a finder it is worthless. You have a lower chance of being a finder than of being scum.

[Kalse]

Ampelas, on 04 November 2014 - 02:22 PM, said:

At this stage I can write off two members of more than likely being scum. With me that is 3 out of 12 people who are more likely town at this point.

Galayn Lord, what did your find say about Serc? We could rule out another one for now, on this day who is scum if he came up town? Or would every player come up town on night 0?

Sorry, explain your logic here.

The only one 100% town is Player 13 who is dead. Player 4 has a 10% chance of being scum, that means there is still the chance of them being scum. You cannot write anyone off for being scum because no-one knows if they are scum or not.

[Galayn Lord]

Kalse, on 04 November 2014 - 02:24 PM, said:

Ampelas, on 04 November 2014 - 02:02 PM, said:

Serc, on 04 November 2014 - 01:13 PM, said:

So finds on town made them more likely to be town, and finds on scum made them less likely to be town, while kill orders from scum also made them more likely to be scum? Does that sound right?

No does not sound right to me.

I did my find on Alkend and he came back as town but that does not mean he will stay that way.

Do we have a tame physicist (or at a pinch a statistician) in the game?

Amp worse than that - he came back town on the chance of you being a finder. If you're not a finder it is worthless. You have a lower chance of being a finder than of being scum.

I think he's right. Me doing a find on Serc and getting a result (Town) says more about my status than Sercs.

Did anyone get a null result on a find?

[Galayn Lord]

for posterity's sake, I did the Serc find by way of random.org.

[Ampelas]

Galayn Lord, on 04 November 2014 - 02:34 PM, said:

Kalse, on 04 November 2014 - 02:24 PM, said:

Ampelas, on 04 November 2014 - 02:02 PM, said:

Serc, on 04 November 2014 - 01:13 PM, said:

So finds on town made them more likely to be town, and finds on scum made them less likely to be town, while kill orders from scum also made them more likely to be scum? Does that sound right?

No does not sound right to me.

I did my find on Alkend and he came back as town but that does not mean he will stay that way.

Do we have a tame physicist (or at a pinch a statistician) in the game?

Amp worse than that - he came back town on the chance of you being a finder. If you're not a finder it is worthless. You have a lower chance of being a finder than of being scum.

I think he's right. Me doing a find on Serc and getting a result (Town) says more about my status than Sercs.

Did anyone get a null result on a find?

Yeah well how about the people targeted with a kill? There were plenty that weren't targeted which increases their likelihood of being scum yes?

[Ruse]

I found Serc (came back town) and aimed kill at Thyrllan.

[Ruse]

Ampelas, on 04 November 2014 - 02:40 PM, said:

Yeah well how about the people targeted with a kill? There were plenty that weren't targeted which increases their likelihood of being scum yes?

No, that does not sound right. Have a look at the percentages. Of the people still 100% alive (i.e. no one has targetted them with a kill) two are still on the same percentage likelihood of being scum as they started the game, and one has actually lowered.

[Galayn Lord]

Ampelas, on 04 November 2014 - 02:40 PM, said:

Galayn Lord, on 04 November 2014 - 02:34 PM, said:

Kalse, on 04 November 2014 - 02:24 PM, said:

Ampelas, on 04 November 2014 - 02:02 PM, said:

Serc, on 04 November 2014 - 01:13 PM, said:

So finds on town made them more likely to be town, and finds on scum made them less likely to be town, while kill orders from scum also made them more likely to be scum? Does that sound right?

No does not sound right to me.

I did my find on Alkend and he came back as town but that does not mean he will stay that way.

Do we have a tame physicist (or at a pinch a statistician) in the game?

Amp worse than that - he came back town on the chance of you being a finder. If you're not a finder it is worthless. You have a lower chance of being a finder than of being scum.

I think he's right. Me doing a find on Serc and getting a result (Town) says more about my status than Sercs.

Did anyone get a null result on a find?

Yeah well how about the people targeted with a kill? There were plenty that weren't targeted which increases their likelihood of being scum yes?

I don't think so. It's not the target result that is important if I'm understanding this correctly especially the kill.

I target Fener with a kill.
PS rolls the dice to see whether I'm scum or town.
If I'm town, the kill does not go through.
If I'm scum, PS rolls the dice to see whether I'm Scum A or Scum B.
If I'm scum B, the kill does not go through. Remember the OP states that Scum B only gains the kill upon the death of scum A.

[Galayn Lord]

Path-Shaper, on 04 November 2014 - 11:38 AM, said:

Current status on all players:
Player - alive - dead -town - scum
1.........100%....0%...85%.....15%
2.........100%....0%...82%.....18%
3.........100%....0%...85%.....15%
4..........82%...18%...90%.....10%
5..........78%...22%...83%.....17%
6.........100%....0%...82%.....18%
7..........91%....9%...83%.....17%
8..........88%...12%...81%.....19%
9..........92%....8%...82%.....18%
10.......100%....0%...88%.....12%
11.......100%....0%...77%.....23%
12.......100%....0%...79%.....21%
13.........0%...100%..100%.....0%

Number of possible realities: 773

Players 4,5, 7,8,9 all lost some percentage of life. That doesn't tell us anything about them as a group. It shows that, of 12 players, X had kills go through. The difference in their alive/dead ratios has me confused though.

[Serc]

So there is no master list somewhere that has collapsed the quantum state of the game which is deciding what actions go through or not?

So it's not just us being kept in the dark about what we are, its our roles not even being defined at the moment?

[Ampelas]

Serc, on 04 November 2014 - 03:00 PM, said:

So there is no master list somewhere that has collapsed the quantum state of the game which is deciding what actions go through or not?

So it's not just us being kept in the dark about what we are, its our roles not even being defined at the moment?

I think if you would like to create a list of such magnitude that would be great, it depends if people are willing to share their information and if they are telling the truth

[Ampelas]

Ruse, on 04 November 2014 - 02:46 PM, said:

I found Serc (came back town) and aimed kill at Thyrllan.

So this means Thyrllan cannot be 1, 2, 3, 6, 10, 11, 12 or 13

Current status on all players:
Player - alive - dead -town - scum

4..........82%...18%...90%.....10%
5..........78%...22%...83%.....17%
7..........91%....9%...83%.....17%
8..........88%...12%...81%.....19%
9..........92%....8%...82%.....18%


One of these is Thyrrlan

[Ruse]

Ampelas, on 04 November 2014 - 03:09 PM, said:

Ruse, on 04 November 2014 - 02:46 PM, said:

I found Serc (came back town) and aimed kill at Thyrllan.

So this means Thyrllan cannot be 1, 2, 3, 6, 10, 11, 12 or 13

Current status on all players:
Player - alive - dead -town - scum

4..........82%...18%...90%.....10%
5..........78%...22%...83%.....17%
7..........91%....9%...83%.....17%
8..........88%...12%...81%.....19%
9..........92%....8%...82%.....18%


One of these is Thyrrlan

What? Thyrllan is dead. They were modkilled and number 13 (bottom of the list).

[Ampelas]

The main question I have is how are we going to decide on who to lynch?

[Galayn Lord]

That's what I think.

When I did a find on you Serc, there was a roll made to determine the likelihood of me being a finder at that moment. Then there was a roll to determine the likelihood of you being town/scum.

That's why I say that the find result says more about me than you. AT THAT MOMENT, I had a 10/12 chance of being town as did you. But I also had just a 1/10 chance of being a finder.

That's why I asked if anyone received no response on their find.

[Ampelas]

Ruse, on 04 November 2014 - 03:12 PM, said:

Ampelas, on 04 November 2014 - 03:09 PM, said:

Ruse, on 04 November 2014 - 02:46 PM, said:

I found Serc (came back town) and aimed kill at Thyrllan.

So this means Thyrllan cannot be 1, 2, 3, 6, 10, 11, 12 or 13

Current status on all players:
Player - alive - dead -town - scum

4..........82%...18%...90%.....10%
5..........78%...22%...83%.....17%
7..........91%....9%...83%.....17%
8..........88%...12%...81%.....19%
9..........92%....8%...82%.....18%


One of these is Thyrrlan

What? Thyrllan is dead. They were modkilled and number 13 (bottom of the list).

Aah, so is that why you chose him above or did you previous to modkill?

[Ruse]

Serc, on 04 November 2014 - 03:00 PM, said:

So there is no master list somewhere that has collapsed the quantum state of the game which is deciding what actions go through or not?

So it's not just us being kept in the dark about what we are, its our roles not even being defined at the moment?

Yeah, as far as I get it, no one and everyone still has every role, and what roles we end up being defined as depend on find/kill targetting and dice rolls through the course of the game. So even the mod doesn't know who will turn out to be scum yet.

[Ruse]

Ampelas, on 04 November 2014 - 03:13 PM, said:

Ruse, on 04 November 2014 - 03:12 PM, said:

Ampelas, on 04 November 2014 - 03:09 PM, said:

Ruse, on 04 November 2014 - 02:46 PM, said:

I found Serc (came back town) and aimed kill at Thyrllan.

So this means Thyrllan cannot be 1, 2, 3, 6, 10, 11, 12 or 13

Current status on all players:
Player - alive - dead -town - scum

4..........82%...18%...90%.....10%
5..........78%...22%...83%.....17%
7..........91%....9%...83%.....17%
8..........88%...12%...81%.....19%
9..........92%....8%...82%.....18%


One of these is Thyrrlan

What? Thyrllan is dead. They were modkilled and number 13 (bottom of the list).

Aah, so is that why you chose him above or did you previous to modkill?

I selected Thyrllan at random back when I first came on the thread ages ago. I didn't know they would end up not posting at all and be modkilled.

[Ruse]

Galayn Lord, on 04 November 2014 - 02:57 PM, said:

Path-Shaper, on 04 November 2014 - 11:38 AM, said:

Current status on all players:
Player - alive - dead -town - scum
1.........100%....0%...85%.....15%
2.........100%....0%...82%.....18%
3.........100%....0%...85%.....15%
4..........82%...18%...90%.....10%
5..........78%...22%...83%.....17%
6.........100%....0%...82%.....18%
7..........91%....9%...83%.....17%
8..........88%...12%...81%.....19%
9..........92%....8%...82%.....18%
10.......100%....0%...88%.....12%
11.......100%....0%...77%.....23%
12.......100%....0%...79%.....21%
13.........0%...100%..100%.....0%

Number of possible realities: 773

Players 4,5, 7,8,9 all lost some percentage of life. That doesn't tell us anything about them as a group. It shows that, of 12 players, X had kills go through. The difference in their alive/dead ratios has me confused though.

I *think* the differences depend on two factors: How many people targetted them for a kill - so presumably player 5 was targetted more than anyone; and also how likely that one of the people targetting you is of being Killer A.

However, seeing as on night 0 we all had the same percentage chance, I don't *think* the latter came into play.


Lots of *thinks* in there. I could be totally off about all that.