[Iparth Erule]

Vote Skintick

to make it official.

[Ghennan]

Iparth Erule, on 29 July 2014 - 11:35 AM, said:

Ghennan, on 29 July 2014 - 11:12 AM, said:

Eldat Pressen, on 29 July 2014 - 10:55 AM, said:

Ok Ive read up. I asked PS about lynching the arena candidates and yes Bendal will get to choose a new contender. But especially this early why would Bendal put one of his guards in a fight? D1 lynch is pretty much always a townie. Not a given I know but statistically its probably going to happen. If I were him I would throw 2 town in the arena and be happy with my chances that there will be a town lynch, getting a nice little twofer. This logic wont hold up all day but for D1 especially I think its sound.

Bendal's situation;

1. Very limited uses of actually sending a scum to fight
2. There are known anti-scum combatants
3. As you already said, the greatest chance of picking a random (and crap combatant) town player is today
4. He does not want to leave his scum until the last 2 days because then they are easier to locate

Today is the BEST option for having one of his scum fight because it; PI's one of the scum, seperates the guards by X days, is the least likely day in the whole game for his scum to fight a scum killer.

Only if we start getting into WIFOM territory does today become less optimal to make a scum fight. And once we start down that road why not just lynch people based on a RNG?

I think this logic is solid.

Of course, it begs the question if Bendel is smart enough to have employed this logic himself. It would appear that plenty of others have not, so your assumption he's thought it through like this may not hold water.

Either way, I'm willing to vote for one of the combatants today since I generally feel scum do their utmost to think through possible permutations of their actions while townies play it more loosely. So yeah, today is probably the best day to throw your boy in the arena against a townie, and because of that it's town's best day to lynch one of them.

So what do you think about skin and denesmet?

Which one is the more likely to be scum to you?

Edit: X-post oops

This post has been edited by Ghennan: 29 July 2014 - 11:59 AM

[Prazec Goul]

Why Skintick over Denesmet?

Just wondering because I will be voting one of these too.

[Skintick]

Ghennan, on 29 July 2014 - 11:12 AM, said:

Eldat Pressen, on 29 July 2014 - 10:55 AM, said:

Ok Ive read up. I asked PS about lynching the arena candidates and yes Bendal will get to choose a new contender. But especially this early why would Bendal put one of his guards in a fight? D1 lynch is pretty much always a townie. Not a given I know but statistically its probably going to happen. If I were him I would throw 2 town in the arena and be happy with my chances that there will be a town lynch, getting a nice little twofer. This logic wont hold up all day but for D1 especially I think its sound.

Bendal's situation;

1. Very limited uses of actually sending a scum to fight
2. There are known anti-scum combatants
3. As you already said, the greatest chance of picking a random (and crap combatant) town player is today
4. He does not want to leave his scum until the last 2 days because then they are easier to locate

Today is the BEST option for having one of his scum fight because it; PI's one of the scum, seperates the guards by X days, is the least likely day in the whole game for his scum to fight a scum killer.

Only if we start getting into WIFOM territory does today become less optimal to make a scum fight. And once we start down that road why not just lynch people based on a RNG?

Picking on me is sleazy
rhymes not easy

[Ghennan]

Skintick, on 29 July 2014 - 12:00 PM, said:

Ghennan, on 29 July 2014 - 11:12 AM, said:

Eldat Pressen, on 29 July 2014 - 10:55 AM, said:

Ok Ive read up. I asked PS about lynching the arena candidates and yes Bendal will get to choose a new contender. But especially this early why would Bendal put one of his guards in a fight? D1 lynch is pretty much always a townie. Not a given I know but statistically its probably going to happen. If I were him I would throw 2 town in the arena and be happy with my chances that there will be a town lynch, getting a nice little twofer. This logic wont hold up all day but for D1 especially I think its sound.

Bendal's situation;

1. Very limited uses of actually sending a scum to fight
2. There are known anti-scum combatants
3. As you already said, the greatest chance of picking a random (and crap combatant) town player is today
4. He does not want to leave his scum until the last 2 days because then they are easier to locate

Today is the BEST option for having one of his scum fight because it; PI's one of the scum, seperates the guards by X days, is the least likely day in the whole game for his scum to fight a scum killer.

Only if we start getting into WIFOM territory does today become less optimal to make a scum fight. And once we start down that road why not just lynch people based on a RNG?

Picking on me is sleazy
rhymes not easy

okay that did make me laugh.

Do you agree or disagree with the situation bendal was faced with?

Do you think one of the two of you or denesmet is scum?

Sorry for you being forced to rhyme,
can't even promise you're going to be fine.

[Skintick]

Bendal knows that day one
is usually any one

Bendal must know
those not his foe

Why risk a friend
when foes must contend

[Prazec Goul]

For now I'll vote the quiet one out the two;

remove vote

vote Denesmet

[Ghennan]

Skintick, on 29 July 2014 - 12:07 PM, said:

Bendal knows that day one
is usually any one

Bendal must know
those not his foe

Why risk a friend
when foes must contend

going to have to be a bit clearer than this im afraid, are you saying;

Bendal knows day 1 is usually random, he knows his guards, so he hasn't put his guards in the night 1 fight?

If so, what makes you think that?

[Skintick]

Ghennan, on 29 July 2014 - 12:11 PM, said:

Skintick, on 29 July 2014 - 12:07 PM, said:

Bendal knows that day one
is usually any one

Bendal must know
those not his foe

Why risk a friend
when foes must contend

going to have to be a bit clearer than this im afraid, are you saying;

Bendal knows day 1 is usually random, he knows his guards, so he hasn't put his guards in the night 1 fight?

If so, what makes you think that?

Strategy 101
fights are one on one

Why risk a friend
until numbers are thinned?

[Skintick]

I did not jest
when I did suggest

That on this night
there would be no fight.

Bendal made a mistake
an NK is not at stake

For I refuse to fight
on this night.

[Ghennan]

Skintick, on 29 July 2014 - 12:14 PM, said:

Ghennan, on 29 July 2014 - 12:11 PM, said:

Skintick, on 29 July 2014 - 12:07 PM, said:

Bendal knows that day one
is usually any one

Bendal must know
those not his foe

Why risk a friend
when foes must contend

going to have to be a bit clearer than this im afraid, are you saying;

Bendal knows day 1 is usually random, he knows his guards, so he hasn't put his guards in the night 1 fight?

If so, what makes you think that?

Strategy 101
fights are one on one

Why risk a friend
until numbers are thinned?

As previously mentioned, he will want to put distance between when he fights with his gards, and this is the best day to "risk" one of them in a fight because it has the greatest chance of targeting an ineffectual town.

[Eldat Pressen]

If both gladiators refuse to fight its will essentially be a double lynch

[Skintick]

My thoughts could be wrong
But unless Bendal is on bong

First night or two he would be wise
to force his foes to cut their size.

[Skintick]

Eldat Pressen, on 29 July 2014 - 12:21 PM, said:

If both gladiators refuse to fight its will essentially be a double lynch

You misunderstand
Skintick alone can take a stand


One time only I may delay
a fight until the eve of the next day

[Eldat Pressen]

Skintick, on 29 July 2014 - 12:25 PM, said:

Eldat Pressen, on 29 July 2014 - 12:21 PM, said:

If both gladiators refuse to fight its will essentially be a double lynch

You misunderstand
Skintick alone can take a stand


One time only I may delay
a fight until the eve of the next day

Hmm...interesting

[Ghennan]

Skintick, on 29 July 2014 - 12:16 PM, said:

I did not jest
when I did suggest

That on this night
there would be no fight.

Bendal made a mistake
an NK is not at stake

For I refuse to fight
on this night.

Hurm. I am not sure whether or not to accept this reveal. A number of people have expressed a desire to vote for one of the combatants, and 2 have already voted for you. This could easily be an emergency survival tactic. You might even just be hoping to take out the denesmet before you are lynched.

Devils advocate; but if it is true, it doesn't actually help town much. Our only method of getting information is through who bendal home choosees to fight, and who wins them. If we do choose to accept this reveal and switch to someone else or don't lynch anyone, we end up with a probably innocent (there could be other circumstances that may result in a no kill fight, we can't know for sure) who Bendal won't choose to fight again. So we risk information to save what will essentially be an RI.

I am unsure how to proceed here...

[Skintick]

Bendal, tonight off you fuck
for I will not stand in muck

[Ghennan]

Skintick, on 29 July 2014 - 12:25 PM, said:

Eldat Pressen, on 29 July 2014 - 12:21 PM, said:

If both gladiators refuse to fight its will essentially be a double lynch

You misunderstand
Skintick alone can take a stand


One time only I may delay
a fight until the eve of the next day

Ok this changed my mind, you don't have a "don't fight" mechanic, you just have a "delay the fight mechanic"?

All that will do is push back the information we get from the result for another 36 hours. You and denesmet will still fight, and one will still die. Withholding information from town is not beneficial.

My vote remains on skin.

Edit: You CLAIM to have

This post has been edited by Ghennan: 29 July 2014 - 12:32 PM

[Skintick]

Ghennan, on 29 July 2014 - 12:26 PM, said:

Skintick, on 29 July 2014 - 12:16 PM, said:

I did not jest
when I did suggest

That on this night
there would be no fight.

Bendal made a mistake
an NK is not at stake

For I refuse to fight
on this night.

Hurm. I am not sure whether or not to accept this reveal. A number of people have expressed a desire to vote for one of the combatants, and 2 have already voted for you. This could easily be an emergency survival tactic. You might even just be hoping to take out the denesmet before you are lynched.

Devils advocate; but if it is true, it doesn't actually help town much. Our only method of getting information is through who bendal home choosees to fight, and who wins them. If we do choose to accept this reveal and switch to someone else or don't lynch anyone, we end up with a probably innocent (there could be other circumstances that may result in a no kill fight, we can't know for sure) who Bendal won't choose to fight again. So we risk information to save what will essentially be an RI.

I am unsure how to proceed here...

RI? That makes me blink
RIs exist? why do you think

[Skintick]

Ghennan, on 29 July 2014 - 12:29 PM, said:

Skintick, on 29 July 2014 - 12:25 PM, said:

Eldat Pressen, on 29 July 2014 - 12:21 PM, said:

If both gladiators refuse to fight its will essentially be a double lynch

You misunderstand
Skintick alone can take a stand


One time only I may delay
a fight until the eve of the next day

Ok this changed my mind, you don't have a "don't fight" mechanic, you just have a "delay the fight mechanic"?

All that will do is push back the information we get from the result for another 36 hours. You and denesmet will still fight, and one will still die. Withholding information from town is not beneficial.

My vote remains on skin.

Edit: You CLAIM to have

No NK is beneficial to town
If a fighter is lynched another is found
and two town are down