[Denul]

Okral Lom, on 24 April 2014 - 04:28 PM, said:

Galayn Lord, on 24 April 2014 - 02:35 PM, said:

Okral Lom, on 24 April 2014 - 12:35 PM, said:

OK, slow down for a minute. There are 8 players remaining. WCS is that there are three scum remaining and this is D-Day, so rushing into something seems like the wrong tactic.

Having said that, you have made me think that maybe I've been giving Denul a bit too much of a free ride. In my mind I had put him near the bottom of my list of suspects because of how he backed up Ampelas' claims about role speculation (if multiple players are spinning the same yarn, they're either both scum or both inno, it seemed to me). But looking over what he actually said, I'm not sure I made the right call on that front. Need to do a re-read. But then I need to do a re-read on everyone *sigh*.

Ok so the underlined is an interesting read. So are you saying by changing your mind here that Denul was fake symping an inno player(Ampelas)? I mean I'm not very clear on this myself but i had the feeling Denuls repeated support of logical town play placed him in a less scummy bracket than the players incessantly after him, .

What I meant was that previously I had been thinking about Ampelas and Denul as necessarily having the same role by virtue of how they backed each other. However when I went back to look at the posts involved, it wasn't quite as clear to me that this was actually what was going on. As you say, I hadn't considered that Denul could have picked up the implication of Ampelas' post and proceeded to symp him.

I do agree that Denul's behaviour taken at face value has seemed reasonable. However, Tiamatha's point about deflection holds some merit with me - Denul started talking about warlord symps, and this essentially cast doubt on the validity of any investigation into symp connections. I know I stopped looking for that sort of thing as closely once that became the dominant paradigm I was viewing the game through. (Or rather, I didn't really talk about those connections on thread for fear of giving scum unnecessary hints).

Isn't it not a deflection if I was right though? At this point, with so many RI CFs it seems pretty unlikely, but I genuinely believed that that was the right approach at the time. Imagine if it had been the case and we'd followed a warlord's follower to their master and lynched a warlord from it. Then we'd all feel pretty dumb!

[Denul]

Lock, on 24 April 2014 - 10:17 PM, said:

Denul, on 24 April 2014 - 10:15 PM, said:

Well, I think we can all agree Ampelas is not Kenshiro. So who do you suggest Eloth was really symping then? Or do you no longer believe Eloth is a symp at all?

You've lost me. What are you on about? I never said Ampelas was Kenshiro. I said there is the possibility that Eloth, as a symp, highlighted Ampelas as a good target for their master, whoever that may be. Of course, considering that you highlighted Eloth's post even further, you are probably just as good a possibility for a symp as Eloth.

You're right (about the Amp-target not Kenshiro thing). Too many mushrooms.

[Denul]

Okral Lom, on 24 April 2014 - 04:43 PM, said:

Interesting post I spotted from Denul here (I've snipped some of his discussion of Korabas and Kessobahn):

Denul, on 21 April 2014 - 03:14 AM, said:

Other people-wise, Shadow still looks almost too scummy, while Tiam still pings my scumdar with his manner of always talking like he is pushing a vote but not always following through/responding to rebuttals of his accusations (albeit this was more of a thing days 1 and 2, not as bad day 3). I'd be happy to vote for either of them. On the other hand, a voice in the back of my head whispers "smoooooth" every time I think of Bek, Lock or Okral right now. Lastly, Amp and Rikkter continue to be low in both posts and content.

So there's lots to look at and I hope we can all get right back into the spirit of things after the long weekend break ends. I'm planning to do a full read-up tomorrow night and see what comes out of the woodwork for me. For now, good night!

I like this sort of post because I think it's a good way of gauging someone's thought processes about the other players. As scum, it can be difficult to produce them naturally (particularly if you have knowledge of fellow scum players that you are trying to hide). I would quite like to see this sort of list from other players (as I think it would be helpful), so I'll lead off with my own shortly.

Beyond that statement of appreciation, there are some notable things about Denul's list. First of all, he doesn't mention Eloth or GL at all in this post. Is there a good reason for that? Given that subsequently he was casting doubt on Eloth, we may be able to rule out that he was symping him (although, distancing?). I don't remember any interaction between him and GL though. Of the players he does mention, Ampelas and Rikkter have both bought it, but all the others are still in the game. There is perhaps a slight indication that he is trying to pull attention away from Shadow here (by calling him "almost too scummy"), but nothing to signify a bias towards or away from any of the other players.

In conclusion, I would say that if Denul is a symp, he is either symping GL or Shadow. I have not decided for myself whether I think that's actually what's going on, just throwing that out there as a hypothetical. I'll come up with my own opinion list shortly.


EDIT: Getting the parentheses to match up.

I'm all natural, baby


Seriously though, I am getting accused of symping pretty much everyone today. I don't think I've ever been accused of that before. Maybe I need a new HHM title - Groveling Court Eunuch of HHM???

[Denul]

Now, I hate to bring this up AGAIN because it seems you all really hate it and this is just annoying you all, but I genuinely believe Tiam is a good bet on scum and today he has been unusually quiet - only a few short posts that don't say much, compared to his usual activity. Additionally, he straight up declared he would have blinkers on today, something that is normally a bad thing only levied at other people! In addition to his inability to follow through on his own word in days 2 and 3, he has been extremely blinkered the last two days and is even proud of that. That's just about the worst behaviour you can have as a townie, isn't it? Today is potentially d-day, why is Tiam not concerned about that?! He's potentially tossing the game away and doesn't seem to care.

So even ignoring what I think was a slip-up, I think he does look quite a bit like scum laying low today since it is d-day and he was taking some pressure yesterday.

I want people to consider this option, so

Vote Tiam

I am certainly open to other possibilities, and other players do look like potential scum to me, too, but I do feel very strongly about this and don't feel like I've gotten much of a response from anyone one way or another.

[Okral Lom]

Right, let's go through the remaining players then (in loose order of suspicion):

Shadow: I articulated my reasons for voting for him on previous days here and here. It also seemed a bit fishy the way the lynch was turned away from him yesterday (although he himself was expressing this argument, which is actually a point in his favour).

Denul: Originally I thought he was probably a town symp. However, I've recently been doubting that position, and given that he was a prime instigator of the concept of town symps in the first place my suspicions have turned a bit. Over the past day or so he has been choosing very trivial points to base his votes on - I was not convinced at all by his reasoning behind the vote for Tiamatha nor the switch to Rikkter. They read as though he felt he needed to drop a vote/follow where the wind was blowing but didn't have the inclination to come up with a proper case.

Bek Okhan: At first I thought I had him pegged as Korabas' symp (and thus inno). There were several times over the first few days where he seemed to come to Korabas' defence. However, since I'm now doubting the existence of these symps it takes away the reason I thought he was innocent. On Day 3 he made a fairly extensive case on Tiamatha - perhaps trying to avoid town lynching Korabas so he could NK and preserve his VC? (Admittedly on Day 3 I also made a case that wasn't against Korabas, so make of that what you will). The way he has glided through the game without much pressure makes me suspicious. But I guess I do see a lot of similarities between the way he and I play (calm and rational, willing to ask direct questions, keen to create multiple options for a lynch), so unless I'm somehow managing to play like scum and not realising it, his general demeanour is a point in his favour.

Lock: People have been suspicious of Lock today and it mostly comes down to his behaviour towards the end of yesterday.He made cases on both Shadow and Rikkter and then went with Rikkter. At the time there was 1 vote for Denul, 1 for Shadow and 2 for Tiamatha, so if he was trying to control the lynch it would probably have made more sense to go for Shadow than Rikkter. The fact that we ended up with a Rikkter lynch seemed more to do with Eloth than Lock. On the other hand, I didn't like the way he made a big show of being unable to choose between his two potential lynch candidates - it felt slightly put on, as if he felt the need to show more indecision than he actually felt. He also had a tendency to make cases that didn't convince him to place a vote - I am usually very wary of these.

Eloth: Generally very prickly and quick to argue. I'm always on the fence about this sort of player - on the one hand I don't like overly combative playstyles and it's something I try to avoid, but on the other hand it can get results if you avoid creating a storm so big it obscures the meaningful bits. It felt like his vote was the key one that swung the lynch onto Rikkter yesterday. At the time it was 1 vote for Rikkter, 1 for Denul, 1 for Shadow and 2 for Tiamatha. However, the natural choice for scum to pile onto here would be Tiamatha - there's plenty of material to build a case about him if you wanted to and it would have been more likely to come off what with there already being 2 votes on him. Either he is symping Tiamatha or like me he doesn't find his play particularly suspicious. I can't tell. On balance I found his discussion of Ampelas on Day 4 to be that of a town player, so I'm putting him fairly low down my list.

Tiamatha: He has not always been particularly coherent, but what he has been is consistent in that after doing a lot of poking people on Day 1 he settled on Denul as who he thought was scummy and has stuck with it. I find it hard to believe that scum would be willing to keep up that level of blinkeredness - they would need to be more flexible in order to keep focus away from them. Also the way he was sticking his neck out to get people talking on Day 1 seemed town-like to me.

Galayn Lord: All the hallmarks of a useful low poster, one who is committed to helping town even though he doesn't have much time to play. I have generally like the content of his posts and his demeanour. The only thing that is a bit fishy is something Eloth recently pointed out - how quick he was to remove his vote at the beginning of today. But overall I'm pretty convinced he's clean for the time being.

[Okral Lom]

Having done that, I would appreciate it if we could get something similar from everyone else (or at least some responses to whether you agree/disagree with my point of view on various players). Filling in the matrix of what everyone thinks about everyone else can only be useful at this point.

[Okral Lom]

Denul, on 24 April 2014 - 10:27 PM, said:

Now, I hate to bring this up AGAIN because it seems you all really hate it and this is just annoying you all, but I genuinely believe Tiam is a good bet on scum and today he has been unusually quiet - only a few short posts that don't say much, compared to his usual activity. Additionally, he straight up declared he would have blinkers on today, something that is normally a bad thing only levied at other people! In addition to his inability to follow through on his own word in days 2 and 3, he has been extremely blinkered the last two days and is even proud of that. That's just about the worst behaviour you can have as a townie, isn't it? Today is potentially d-day, why is Tiam not concerned about that?! He's potentially tossing the game away and doesn't seem to care.

So even ignoring what I think was a slip-up, I think he does look quite a bit like scum laying low today since it is d-day and he was taking some pressure yesterday.

I want people to consider this option, so

Vote Tiam

I am certainly open to other possibilities, and other players do look like potential scum to me, too, but I do feel very strongly about this and don't feel like I've gotten much of a response from anyone one way or another.

I would like to hear why Tiamatha felt it was OK to be so tightly focused at this point given the potential for D-Day, but I don't think scum would be so brazen as to make a post like this that early on in the day.

[Denul]

Okral Lom, on 24 April 2014 - 10:42 PM, said:

Denul, on 24 April 2014 - 10:27 PM, said:

Now, I hate to bring this up AGAIN because it seems you all really hate it and this is just annoying you all, but I genuinely believe Tiam is a good bet on scum and today he has been unusually quiet - only a few short posts that don't say much, compared to his usual activity. Additionally, he straight up declared he would have blinkers on today, something that is normally a bad thing only levied at other people! In addition to his inability to follow through on his own word in days 2 and 3, he has been extremely blinkered the last two days and is even proud of that. That's just about the worst behaviour you can have as a townie, isn't it? Today is potentially d-day, why is Tiam not concerned about that?! He's potentially tossing the game away and doesn't seem to care.

So even ignoring what I think was a slip-up, I think he does look quite a bit like scum laying low today since it is d-day and he was taking some pressure yesterday.

I want people to consider this option, so

Vote Tiam

I am certainly open to other possibilities, and other players do look like potential scum to me, too, but I do feel very strongly about this and don't feel like I've gotten much of a response from anyone one way or another.

I would like to hear why Tiamatha felt it was OK to be so tightly focused at this point given the potential for D-Day, but I don't think scum would be so brazen as to make a post like this that early on in the day.

There's a lot of benefits in it for scum, though. It gives them a reason to hardly comment on everyone else, which is generally what town do a lot of on potential d-days, and thus scum is less likely to slip or say something weird that calls attention to them. It also fits well with Tiam not posting nearly as much today - you aren't expecting much from him after him saying he's so blinkered so it doesn't register as unusual that he is laying low today.

[Lock]

Okral, the fact that you've pointed out that Eloth was the potential swing vote on to Rikkter further convinces me I may be on the right track there. The question then being, were they deflecting from Denul, Shadow, or Tiam? Tiam seeming the most likely with 2 votes to the others' one (otherwise why not just vote for Tiam?).

[Lock]

Path-Shaper, on 23 April 2014 - 10:19 PM, said:

10 players alive.
Ampelas, Bek Okhan, Denul, Eloth, Galayn Lord, Lock, Okral Lom, Rikkter, Shadow, Tiamatha

6 votes to lynch.

One vote Denul: Shadow
Six votes Rikkter: Lock, Eloth, Tiam, Okral Lom, Ampelas, Denul
One vote Tiam: Bek Okhan

Players not voting: Galayn Lord, Rikkter

The hammer happened before timeout. Scene to come later!

Rikkter has been lynched. He was HiddenOne and RI

Ampelas has been killed. He was Messremb and RI

Hmm, Tiam themselves jumps on to Rikkter after Eloth. A townie sensing that this is the lynch that will save them? A scum sensing that this is the lynch that will save them? A scum following the lead of their fellow scum?

Still need to take a look through Eloth's interactions - when I have the time, which won't be for another couple of hours most likely.

[Okral Lom]

If you're still around, Denul, what's your opinion on Lock? I want to know what you're thinking.

[Lock]

Ok, so I went back and had a read through Eloth's posts. I was surprised by the lack of direct/strong suspicion of people evidenced in their posts, most things are tippy-tappy questioning of certain aspects of posts. It's actually a style I like (if Eloth's a townie!) but for some reason in my head I had Eloth as being more forthright than they actually have been.

So early on they held a bit of suspicion of Korabas on the Serc/Denul front. Then that turned into an argument with Okral Lom which descended into snoresville arguments of probability and some dude called Monty

There has been quite a bit of poking and prodding of Denul, though never any real direct interaction. In fact, Eloth's seldom had direct interactions with anyone. That may be as much an issue caused by other people simply not responding to Eloth's posts all that much. But then many of Eloth's posts classed as 'observations', rather than something which perhaps attracts a debate to Eloth more directly. What I'm trying to get at is that there is a tendency for Eloth to quote posts and talk about them, but they seldom seem to have drawn any sort of direct response from anyone which would then engage Eloth in a more direct conversation (myself today, Ampelas after Lock's analysis, and Okral to an extent earlier in the game being exceptions).


Aside from maybe the prodding of Denul, which itself never seems to have evolved into full-blown suspicion, it's hard to nail down who exactly Eloth IS strongly suspicious of (aside from perhaps me after I became suspicious of them ). Korabas pre-CF is maybe the only one, with Shadow getting the odd mention.


One question I had from recent events concerns the two posts below:

Eloth, on 23 April 2014 - 05:18 PM, said:

Lock, on 23 April 2014 - 05:13 PM, said:

We have 4 hours 10 minutes left.


This is a toughie.

Yeah, sigh. I will be around till timeout at least though. I spent too much time looking at Amp, even though he's being a little bitch about it now. Just based on thread interaction, my current leaning is toward Shadow first, Tiam second. I need to read the case on Rikkter, have almost no read on him so far other than a little gut feeling.

Above Eloth states suspicion of Shadow and Tiamatha. Has 'no read' on Rikkter.


But below Eloth then votes for Rikkter, over Shadow (1 vote) and Tiamatha (2 votes).

Eloth, on 23 April 2014 - 06:23 PM, said:

Tiamatha, on 23 April 2014 - 06:12 PM, said:

I'm here, feeling a vote for shadow over rikkter, and unsurprisingly myself

Well I was feeling the same way until examining the cases made on Rikkter, but now Denul is backing off his case to vote for you. I would like more from Denul about why he changed his mind about Rikkter so late in the day, which I'm not sure was helpful.

Vote Rikkter

I'm willing to switch to Shadow but I am also hoping that Rikker shows up. If he doesn't, I probably will stick here. We have 3 hours left; unless people start showing up soon I don't see how we will have the numbers. We already have some people who voted and said they would not be back (Bek, iirc).

Tiam, why Shadow over Rikkter based on current analysis?

The switch is explained as having read up the case on Rikkter, but states that they're still willing to switch to Shadow. Shadow and Rikkter had the same number of votes at the time, so why not go for the one you had felt more suspicous of (Shadow)? I am also confused as to what Eloth is trying to get at with the comments on Denul backing off Rikkter - are they saying that they now find Rikkter more suspicious because Denul removed from them?

[Okral Lom]

Galayn Lord, on 24 April 2014 - 06:54 PM, said:

Okral Lom, on 24 April 2014 - 04:43 PM, said:

Interesting post I spotted from Denul here (I've snipped some of his discussion of Korabas and Kessobahn):

Denul, on 21 April 2014 - 03:14 AM, said:

Other people-wise, Shadow still looks almost too scummy, while Tiam still pings my scumdar with his manner of always talking like he is pushing a vote but not always following through/responding to rebuttals of his accusations (albeit this was more of a thing days 1 and 2, not as bad day 3). I'd be happy to vote for either of them. On the other hand, a voice in the back of my head whispers "smoooooth" every time I think of Bek, Lock or Okral right now. Lastly, Amp and Rikkter continue to be low in both posts and content.

So there's lots to look at and I hope we can all get right back into the spirit of things after the long weekend break ends. I'm planning to do a full read-up tomorrow night and see what comes out of the woodwork for me. For now, good night!

I like this sort of post because I think it's a good way of gauging someone's thought processes about the other players. As scum, it can be difficult to produce them naturally (particularly if you have knowledge of fellow scum players that you are trying to hide). I would quite like to see this sort of list from other players (as I think it would be helpful), so I'll lead off with my own shortly.

Beyond that statement of appreciation, there are some notable things about Denul's list. First of all, he doesn't mention Eloth or GL at all in this post. Is there a good reason for that? Given that subsequently he was casting doubt on Eloth, we may be able to rule out that he was symping him (although, distancing?). I don't remember any interaction between him and GL though. Of the players he does mention, Ampelas and Rikkter have both bought it, but all the others are still in the game. There is perhaps a slight indication that he is trying to pull attention away from Shadow here (by calling him "almost too scummy"), but nothing to signify a bias towards or away from any of the other players.

In conclusion, I would say that if Denul is a symp, he is either symping GL or Shadow. I have not decided for myself whether I think that's actually what's going on, just throwing that out there as a hypothetical. I'll come up with my own opinion list shortly.


EDIT: Getting the parentheses to match up.

Quite the Cross post from me.

I agree I have not been interacting much with Eloth, though I could say the same of Bek, Rikkter and Ampelas? I just haven't been on as much as the rest of you and only converse with players that question my reasoning or respond to it. The four I've mentioned have avoided engaging my posts and I can't really point as to why? There was no real need to put super scrutiny on those players because they didn't seem to produce content I felt I needed to engage in either but as I say right now Eloth looks pretty pushy this day and looks pretty scummy based solely on behaviour.

Okral Lom, on 24 April 2014 - 04:28 PM, said:

<snip>


I do agree that Denul's behaviour taken at face value has seemed reasonable. However, Tiamatha's point about deflection holds some merit with me - Denul started talking about warlord symps, and this essentially cast doubt on the validity of any investigation into symp connections. I know I stopped looking for that sort of thing as closely once that became the dominant paradigm I was viewing the game through. (Or rather, I didn't really talk about those connections on thread for fear of giving scum unnecessary hints).

That Denul missed me and Eloth is looking dubious in my own perspective against the underlined. There is no reason given and your interpretation of it looks designed to have me setup up alongside the likes of shadow. I cant be sure how to read that jump. Maybe you can help me understand why Denuls ommission of my name in a list weighs so much to you when I was starting to think you felt the opposite and mistrusted Denuls reads. Seems like an about face on your own logic which is a scum-like shift of opinion.

Just noticed this. I'm not quite sure what you're unsure about here. In the first of the posts you quote, I'm speculating that if you were to read Denul's post as that of a symp, then you and Shadow are the two that would make the most sense as masters for him. This does not mean I am convinced that Denul is actually a symp - it's a hypothetical. Does it matter what my overall feelings about Denul's reads and speculation are for the purposes of that hypothetical? I don't see that they do...

[Okral Lom]

Anyway, I'm off to bed. I should (just about) be awake for timeout, so if I'm needed to switch my vote up I should be around to do so. But for now,

Vote Shadow

As he's still top of my list.

[Lock]

I'll be waking up either a few minutes before or a few minutes after timeout, depending on how fast my alarm gets me up. So I'll have to vote now.

I think it's 1 vote each on myself, Tiam, and Shadow. It's either Tiam or Shadow for me, and there's little to choose between the two. If I follow up my Eloth suspicions, then they've been ever so slightly more chummy with Tiam, so

Vote Tiamatha

[Lock]

I'll endeavour to get up before timeout, in case the vote needs switching, but I can't guarantee I'll be there.

[Lock]

I'm already second-guessing myself. How many times have we considered Shadow for a lynch now?

[Path-Shaper]

It is Day 5

3 hours and 10 minutes are left in Day 5

8 players are left alive.
5 votes needed to lynch.

Bek Okhan, Denul, Eloth, Galayn Lord, Lock, Okral Lom, Shadow, Tiamatha

1 vote Lock: Shadow
2 votes Tiam: Denul, Lock
1 vote Shadow: Okral Lom

Players not voting.

Bek Okhan, Eloth, Galayn Lord, Tiamatha

[Denul]

Ough, another late night. Back and reading up.

[Denul]

Okral Lom, on 25 April 2014 - 12:46 AM, said:

If you're still around, Denul, what's your opinion on Lock? I want to know what you're thinking.

Mostly favourable. He's played a solid game and I can't see a lot of the cases he's espoused being ones that scum would bring up - especially since many are ones town would not likely have brought up otherwise. Furthermore, if he was scum trying to push a timing case like he did, I'd expect he would have more definitively timed his own posts to look better by his own case than he was.