[Tiamatha]

maybe I'm presenting my opinion wrong.

om lets say that warlords do CF differently.

lets say we don't lynch Korabas today and kenshiro kills him tonight.

It will still take him three nights to kill off the warlords ASSUMING he gets lucky and hits them all in a row

ASSUMING we don't end up lynching one now through a plain old bad town lynch.

lets assume we don't lynch any warlords. And assume a solo killer we have 3 days

we have a CI (if assuming korabas is truthful) why are we wasting a lynch? If there's more than one scum we're barrelling closer to d-day second by second. And you guys want to rush there, hell if there's more than one scum we d-day about the same time as a triple warlordicide. Assuming kenshiro gets lucky enough to nail them.

This is wasted lynch Imo, is that clear enough for you?

[Denul]

Briefly checking in and quickly reading up.

I disagree with Tiam that considering player posting times with the lack of a Korabas NK is without merit. Despite potential wifom situations, the really is no reason for the killer not to have switched to Korabas if they could. There is minimal gain in the wifom department, because Shin's mod post basically CI'd Korabas despite him not being NK'd. At the same time, the killer would know for sure there's a good possibility of us lynching Korabas if he survives. Killing Korabas maintains the easier scum VC which potentially alleviates the killer ever having to get into a more dangerous D-Day where there are fewer town players to hide amongst.

So, I do think if the killer was online they would have certainly switched to Korabas. There's just not enough value in not doing so for them, as far as I can see. Looking at who was and wasn't online at the time (as well as taking into account the MO NK, which is wifomier but worth thinking about in conjunction with this timing case) is very worthwhile, IMO.

I also disagree about gangleaders not being revealed in CFs. The dead have so far been CF'd as not just innocent but RI. RI means something very specific and the gangleaders are certainly not RI based upon the OP/sign-up hints.

I do, however, agree with Tiam about lynching Korabas. We have a CI/VPI, no need to do a guaranteed wasted lynch on him. No other gangleaders have CF'd yet, so losing one tonight is not a big deal. There are still two left that we might lynch by mistake or that can deliberately do something stupid to get lynched if they are the last one and are afraid Kenshiro will get his 3 leader NKs.

[Shadow]

Tiamatha, on 17 April 2014 - 02:04 PM, said:

maybe I'm presenting my opinion wrong.

om lets say that warlords do CF differently.

lets say we don't lynch Korabas today and kenshiro kills him tonight.

It will still take him three nights to kill off the warlords ASSUMING he gets lucky and hits them all in a row

ASSUMING we don't end up lynching one now through a plain old bad town lynch.

lets assume we don't lynch any warlords. And assume a solo killer we have 3 days

we have a CI (if assuming korabas is truthful) why are we wasting a lynch? If there's more than one scum we're barrelling closer to d-day second by second. And you guys want to rush there, hell if there's more than one scum we d-day about the same time as a triple warlordicide. Assuming kenshiro gets lucky enough to nail them.

This is wasted lynch Imo, is that clear enough for you?

That makes more sense. I still feel that a lynch on Korbas is smart. But your right we don't have too.

Remove vote

[Path-Shaper]

It is Day 3.

22 hours and 20 minutes are left.

12 players alive.
Ampelas, Bek Okhan, Denul, Eloth, Galayn Lord, Kessobahn, Korabas, Lock, Okral Lom, Rikkter, Shadow, Tiamatha

1 vote Korabas: Ampelas

Players not voting: Bek Okhan, Denul, Eloth, Galayn Lord, Kessobahn, Korabas, Lock, Okral Lom, Rikkter, Shadow, Tiamatha

[Path-Shaper]

Scene has been added to the end of Day 2.

[Kessobahn]

Path-Shaper, on 17 April 2014 - 07:20 AM, said:

Path-Shaper, on 11 April 2014 - 02:07 PM, said:

Game specific rules:

REVEALS OF IDENTITY ARE STRICTLY FORBIDDEN. Reveals of abilities, real or fake, are allowed.

I do not want anyone implying what they are. Next person who does, get's whacked.

Hmm. Is meta discussion about the game designer allowed? Shin loves words; their meanings and shades. Shin enjoys fake reveals. He does not hesitate to modkill over a broken rule. He will err on the side of the player if there is a grey area.

Korabas didn't reveal his identity; he claimed a role. By the wording of the original PM, he didn't break the rules. So it is possible to read this comment as a clarification of the rule.

In my opinion this clarification by PS does not verify Korabas' claim and would hesitate at drawing any conclusions based upon the premise that it does CI Korabas.

[Galayn Lord]

Kessobahn, on 17 April 2014 - 04:00 PM, said:

Path-Shaper, on 17 April 2014 - 07:20 AM, said:

Path-Shaper, on 11 April 2014 - 02:07 PM, said:

Game specific rules:

REVEALS OF IDENTITY ARE STRICTLY FORBIDDEN. Reveals of abilities, real or fake, are allowed.

I do not want anyone implying what they are. Next person who does, get's whacked.

Hmm. Is meta discussion about the game designer allowed? Shin loves words; their meanings and shades. Shin enjoys fake reveals. He does not hesitate to modkill over a broken rule. He will err on the side of the player if there is a grey area.

Korabas didn't reveal his identity; he claimed a role. By the wording of the original PM, he didn't break the rules. So it is possible to read this comment as a clarification of the rule.

In my opinion this clarification by PS does not verify Korabas' claim and would hesitate at drawing any conclusions based upon the premise that it does CI Korabas.

Wooohoo! The Long weekend begins!

Ok, I think Korabas has his reasons for making the Warlord claim. His end of day activity makes me think differently but if Korabas did fake his reveal I think thats not a bad move. I would suggest we leave of speculation of this sort as one way or the other uncertainty of whether Korabas is or is not a Warleader helps town.

I think Shadows list seems a bit odd when juxtaposed against locks. I'm gonna read back and see if theres an overlap.

[Galayn Lord]

Locks post:

Lock, on 15 April 2014 - 11:57 PM, said:

Alright, here is my current thinking. The premise below is based on a complete supposition, so may be entirely inaccurate. Similarly, the narrowing down of the suspect pool is largely based on reasoning rather than evidence - but this is the track I've decided to follow for now. In any event, I do think the scenario is a plausible one - plausible enough to be worth investigating anyway.

So, the theory is: Monok was killed because of the irritating RP, and nothing more. This leads to the suspicion that the killer was not around at the time when 1) Monok started getting heat themselves, and 2) Monok had actually dropped the RP, and when Serc was eventually lynched.

Those who did not post in that time: Bek Okhan, Denul, Galayn Lord, Korabas, Lock (yes, me), Rikkter, and Ruse.

Of these, Bek, Rikkter, and myself all posted shortly after the 9th vote was laid down - so too late to change anything if that was the very moment that we had arrived on thread, but it is also plausible that these players were around and reading a little while before posting (I know I was, at least). Similarly, while Denul did not post after Monok dropped the RP, they had just posted a few minutes before then (and not an "I'm leaving now" type of post), so it is also reasonable to think they could have been around to see Monok's post dropping the RP.

So that leaves us with Galayn, Korabas, and Ruse. It is these three which I will be looking at tomorrow after I get some sleep.

Shadows Post:

Shadow, on 17 April 2014 - 01:00 PM, said:

As I see it
Kesso
Okral
Lock
Bek
GL

Can not be the killer. Otherwise they would have changed their night kill to take Korbas out.

That leaves as the possible killer

Ampelas, Denul, Eloth, Rikkter, Shadow, Tiamatha

Since I know that I am town. We are left with

Amp
Denul
Eloth
Rikkter
Tiamatha


I of course like Denul as scum. But really it could be anyone of those. Of course now that we have two lists. I think that we will lynch off of one and scum will most likely kill off of the other. At least that is what I would if I was scum.

Well I'm not saying that this means one of the two are scum but lets just say if scum is playing a distant game out the spotlight and not current, these two players: Rikkter and Denul are likely the best candidate.

I will however state that both players are complete polarizations of each other and could not be more different.

I think we also need to factor that scum play smart? This might be the kind of case they want to distract from other players. Talking about NKs will lead to such Wifom. We voted Ruse on sound grounds but Locks list set us on that trail, Shadow has come under some heat aswell so I'm not particularly trusting of these lists beyond the fact Denul and Rikkter were infact not present to act like predictable killers for whatever that's worth.

I'm not making a case on anyone just yet. I want to read up on Lock and Shadow first.

[Kessobahn]

Galayn Lord, on 17 April 2014 - 05:06 PM, said:

<snip>

[size="2"]I think we also need to factor that scum play smart?
<snip>

You mean I shouldn't assume that scum are genetically defective offspring of idiots and morons? Thanks I needed reminding of that.

[Galayn Lord]

Kessobahn, on 17 April 2014 - 05:32 PM, said:

Galayn Lord, on 17 April 2014 - 05:06 PM, said:

<snip>

[size="2"]I think we also need to factor that scum play smart?
<snip>

You mean I shouldn't assume that scum are genetically defective offspring of idiots and morons? Thanks I needed reminding of that.

Well someone woke up on the wrong side of the bed this morning.

Are we having a bad day?

[Denul]

Galayn Lord, on 17 April 2014 - 05:06 PM, said:

Locks post:

Lock, on 15 April 2014 - 11:57 PM, said:

Alright, here is my current thinking. The premise below is based on a complete supposition, so may be entirely inaccurate. Similarly, the narrowing down of the suspect pool is largely based on reasoning rather than evidence - but this is the track I've decided to follow for now. In any event, I do think the scenario is a plausible one - plausible enough to be worth investigating anyway.

So, the theory is: Monok was killed because of the irritating RP, and nothing more. This leads to the suspicion that the killer was not around at the time when 1) Monok started getting heat themselves, and 2) Monok had actually dropped the RP, and when Serc was eventually lynched.

Those who did not post in that time: Bek Okhan, Denul, Galayn Lord, Korabas, Lock (yes, me), Rikkter, and Ruse.

Of these, Bek, Rikkter, and myself all posted shortly after the 9th vote was laid down - so too late to change anything if that was the very moment that we had arrived on thread, but it is also plausible that these players were around and reading a little while before posting (I know I was, at least). Similarly, while Denul did not post after Monok dropped the RP, they had just posted a few minutes before then (and not an "I'm leaving now" type of post), so it is also reasonable to think they could have been around to see Monok's post dropping the RP.

So that leaves us with Galayn, Korabas, and Ruse. It is these three which I will be looking at tomorrow after I get some sleep.

Shadows Post:

Shadow, on 17 April 2014 - 01:00 PM, said:

As I see it
Kesso
Okral
Lock
Bek
GL

Can not be the killer. Otherwise they would have changed their night kill to take Korbas out.

That leaves as the possible killer

Ampelas, Denul, Eloth, Rikkter, Shadow, Tiamatha

Since I know that I am town. We are left with

Amp
Denul
Eloth
Rikkter
Tiamatha


I of course like Denul as scum. But really it could be anyone of those. Of course now that we have two lists. I think that we will lynch off of one and scum will most likely kill off of the other. At least that is what I would if I was scum.

Well I'm not saying that this means one of the two are scum but lets just say if scum is playing a distant game out the spotlight and not current, these two players: Rikkter and Denul are likely the best candidate.

I will however state that both players are complete polarizations of each other and could not be more different.

I think we also need to factor that scum play smart? This might be the kind of case they want to distract from other players. Talking about NKs will lead to such Wifom. We voted Ruse on sound grounds but Locks list set us on that trail, Shadow has come under some heat aswell so I'm not particularly trusting of these lists beyond the fact Denul and Rikkter were infact not present to act like predictable killers for whatever that's worth.

I'm not making a case on anyone just yet. I want to read up on Lock and Shadow first.

I put a lot more confidence in the timing of the latest lynch+NK than of day 1. That being said, the fact that Rikkter is on both certainly warrants looking into. I will take a look at him, but I'm obviously pretty biased when you decide to break it down into just me and him!

Given how often he has posted pretty sure there's not going to be a lot to go on for him, either way.

[Ampelas]

Okay, dug through a bit. Those alts who have not demonstrated the ability to be on thread at within an hour of the time Korabas claimed Warlordship and the lynch time are:

Ampelas, Denul, Rikkter, Shadow, Tiamatha

Depending on how you think scum would react to a Warlord reveal your targets are possibly amongst them - they would likely not have been around in time to change a kill order should they wish to do so.

Ampelas, Denul and Tiam have close calls with the timeframe, Denul at the start and Tiam & I at the end. The rest are clearly out for the count.

Given Tiam and I haven't posted before the lynch time I discount us leaving (slightly) Denul, (firm) Rikkter & (firm) Shadow.

[Ampelas]

Any news on the weekend freeze PS?

[Denul]

Ampelas, on 17 April 2014 - 06:10 PM, said:

Ampelas, Denul and Tiam have close calls with the timeframe, Denul at the start and Tiam & I at the end. The rest are clearly out for the count.

Given Tiam and I haven't posted before the lynch time I discount us leaving (slightly) Denul, (firm) Rikkter & (firm) Shadow.

I don't understand how you're discounting people here exactly

[Ampelas]

Denul, on 17 April 2014 - 06:17 PM, said:

Ampelas, on 17 April 2014 - 06:10 PM, said:

Ampelas, Denul and Tiam have close calls with the timeframe, Denul at the start and Tiam & I at the end. The rest are clearly out for the count.

Given Tiam and I haven't posted before the lynch time I discount us leaving (slightly) Denul, (firm) Rikkter & (firm) Shadow.

I don't understand how you're discounting people here exactly

As I said, depending on how you think Ken would have reacted to a Warlord reveal interpret it in your own way. Were I scum I'd have been hanging around and changed my kill orders, possibly without posting on thread. On that basis one of those listed is Ken because they *didn't* change kill orders. It does depend on what you think scum would do.

[Shadow]

Denul, on 17 April 2014 - 06:17 PM, said:

Ampelas, on 17 April 2014 - 06:10 PM, said:

Ampelas, Denul and Tiam have close calls with the timeframe, Denul at the start and Tiam & I at the end. The rest are clearly out for the count.

Given Tiam and I haven't posted before the lynch time I discount us leaving (slightly) Denul, (firm) Rikkter & (firm) Shadow.

I don't understand how you're discounting people here exactly

Especially since he is discounting 2 people. I mean discounting himself sure. I wouldn't expect anything else. But two people. That smacks of something fishy.

[Ampelas]

Shadow, on 17 April 2014 - 06:23 PM, said:

Denul, on 17 April 2014 - 06:17 PM, said:

Ampelas, on 17 April 2014 - 06:10 PM, said:

Ampelas, Denul and Tiam have close calls with the timeframe, Denul at the start and Tiam & I at the end. The rest are clearly out for the count.

Given Tiam and I haven't posted before the lynch time I discount us leaving (slightly) Denul, (firm) Rikkter & (firm) Shadow.

I don't understand how you're discounting people here exactly

Especially since he is discounting 2 people. I mean discounting himself sure. I wouldn't expect anything else. But two people. That smacks of something fishy.

Go check posting times for yourself. Tell me how many people you think are dedicated enough to get out of bed an hour early to check Mafia

[Shadow]

Ampelas, on 17 April 2014 - 06:21 PM, said:

Denul, on 17 April 2014 - 06:17 PM, said:

Ampelas, on 17 April 2014 - 06:10 PM, said:

Ampelas, Denul and Tiam have close calls with the timeframe, Denul at the start and Tiam & I at the end. The rest are clearly out for the count.

Given Tiam and I haven't posted before the lynch time I discount us leaving (slightly) Denul, (firm) Rikkter & (firm) Shadow.

I don't understand how you're discounting people here exactly

As I said, depending on how you think Ken would have reacted to a Warlord reveal interpret it in your own way. Were I scum I'd have been hanging around and changed my kill orders, possibly without posting on thread. On that basis one of those listed is Ken because they *didn't* change kill orders. It does depend on what you think scum would do.

Yeah I still don't see why that would make you discount anyone.

[Shadow]

Ampelas, on 17 April 2014 - 06:25 PM, said:

Shadow, on 17 April 2014 - 06:23 PM, said:

Denul, on 17 April 2014 - 06:17 PM, said:

Ampelas, on 17 April 2014 - 06:10 PM, said:

Ampelas, Denul and Tiam have close calls with the timeframe, Denul at the start and Tiam & I at the end. The rest are clearly out for the count.

Given Tiam and I haven't posted before the lynch time I discount us leaving (slightly) Denul, (firm) Rikkter & (firm) Shadow.

I don't understand how you're discounting people here exactly

Especially since he is discounting 2 people. I mean discounting himself sure. I wouldn't expect anything else. But two people. That smacks of something fishy.

Go check posting times for yourself. Tell me how many people you think are dedicated enough to get out of bed an hour early to check Mafia

When I am scum I check the thread a lot and don't post a ton. When I am town I check the thread less and don't post a ton.

[Ampelas]

Maybe you get an hour early every morning when you're playing Mafia so don't see an issue. I don't do that.