[Mentalist]

Hey, Garak, looks like you guys dodged the bullet.

Polish election also went decently, with the ultra-nationalists losing out, and the runoff happening between the 2 main parties, both of which are supportive to UA to different degrees.

If Romania elected a mini-Orban, UA would've had a very hard time.

[Garak]

Yesterday was nerve wracking. Today might be interesting as well but hopefully not. Simion was yelling about stolen election and protesting. But considering how Simion avoided debates, ran from people and managed to puss off the French right - this guy is nothing but cheap talk so far. That said it's still worrying how many voted for a hooligan, especially Romanians in other EU countries.

Plus now they will be the opposition in gov and probably try to screw everything up so next round they claim it would have all been great if they had won (classic PSD tactic, no reason for AUR not to use it). Basically we got more bullets on the way.

But yes for now, we dodged this one.

EDIT: No protests, looks like he chickened out of it. Just like the debates.

This post has been edited by Garak: 19 May 2025 - 12:26 PM

[Mentalist]

putler and trump had a 2-hour call.
trump is now excited about MASSIVE TRADE opportunities, once UA and muscovy manage to *checks notes* "negotiate a ceasefire and the end to the war".

why exactly we'd have any meaningful negotiations, when the orcs want UA to lose its sovereignty in the process, remains unclear.

[Werthead]

In one of his few recent, cogent statements, Vance has said that Putin "doesn't quite know how to get out of the war," which I think is accurate. Putin knows the maximalist position is unachievable but settling for much less could weaken his position. It sounds like what had previously been Russia's secondary position - basically settle for the current battlefield front line with some adjustments (swapping the Russian positions in Kharkiv and Sumy for the Ukrainian positions in Kursk and Belgorod seems obvious) was achievable, but he refused to go for it. Unclear why; possibly he knew that Ukraine would arm itself to the teeth and there'd be NATO troops on Ukrainian territory, hugely complicating future plans. However, the current tempo of operations and losses seems unsustainable. Russia has developed significant shortages in manpower and air defences, although given Ukrainian difficulties in achieving successful ground offensives through heavy Russian defensive lines, they may be willing to risk those weaknesses getting worse.

Trump's phone call with Putin was, obviously, a nothingburger. Putin even said he liked Trump's wife, a furtherance of recent Russian media positions insulting her (Russian state media was pushing nude photos of Melania a while back) which went right over Trump's head, as per usual. The US and Russia agreed to swap 9 prisoners of each other's nationality or of interest to the other party, and Russia proposed another meeting with the Ukrainian side. No solid progress was made. One positive bit was that Trump called Zelensky first and apparently put some of Zelensky's positions to Putin, including the importance of the American-backed 30-day ceasefire, which Putin was non-committal on.

[Mentalist]

putler is banking on making good progress over the summer campaign. And he's factoring in the fact that US will cease providing aid in mid-summer.

I'm pretty sure that trump is okay with letting him try, since he doesn't lose anything by doing this.

[Garak]

So if monday was nice and peaceful (while Simion probably went to his masters) the circus is back in town. He is now yelling that the elections were stolen, that we are lucky to have avoided a bloodbath in the weekend (this is the second time in the last week he's threatened violence against those who didn't vote for him) and that he will contest the elections, both here and internationally. Russia also said our elections were rigged, like we care what they think of it. I doubt much will come of this (I hope) , I suspect the aim is just to keep creating chaos and destabilize the country.

[Werthead]

Russia has pointed out that Putin could not travel to the Vatican for peace talks as Italy would be obligated to arrest him. Talks elsewhere, where the ICC is not an issue, are possible.

Ukraine has apparently initiated a massive drone assault against Russian targets tonight, multiple Telegram channels are sounding alarms. The scale of the action is unclear, but Russia claimed over 180 drones took part in a single strike on Russian soil (including Moscow) earlier today. The Patriot Expo centre near Moscow was hit. The Rosneft facility in Ryazan, which has been hit before, has taken at least two major impacts. The Splav Defence Plant in Tula, which builds MLRS and air-launched rockets, was also hit and severely damaged. It appears some mobile phone masts around Moscow were hit. Two of Moscow's airports closed down for part of the day, and a semiconductor plant was hit.

Ukraine has also confirmed plans to integrate returning Ukrainian refugees back into society, including building new homes and possibly entirely new settlements to accommodate them.

The EU is to suspend Hungary's involvement in Ukrainian accession talks and will move forwards without consulting Orban's government. The idea seems to be to get Hungary onboard so they can at least be involved in the process. The EU has also said that Article 7, suspending Hungary's voting rights in the EU Parliament, could be enacted if obstructionism continues. Ukraine has also proposed integrating Ukraine's defensive systems with those of fellow EU states in 2026, long before accession, in return for funding assistance.

Putin advisor Sergey Markov has confirmed that Russia has suffered "several hundred thousands" KIA in Ukraine, the first time a Russian source has confirmed the enormous scale of the losses in Ukraine.

Ukraine identified a Russian vehicle and arms dump in Lgov, Kursk Oblast, and destroyed it. Ukrainian forces on the front have also destroyed a Tor SAM system, a Buk-M3 and an S-300 complex, as well as another TOS-1A flamethrower system.

Ukrainian intelligence has reported that Russia has deployed "blind" AA systems to Crimea because they've run out of radar units. These units rely on optical means to track targets, which is far from ideal.

The first Australian Abrams tanks are arriving in Ukraine. 49 in total are expected.

The new commander of the Russian ground forces has said that the war in Ukraine is only a "stepping stone" to a further campaign in Eastern Europe.

A Finnish MEP with access to Finnish defence intelligence has said he thinks Russia cannot sustain the war much beyond this year, and will risk getting into "serious" trouble with its economy.

[Werthead]

Apparently Russia issued "drone-invisible" camouflage jackets to its troops on the front line several weeks ago. According to Ukrainian sources, these jackets have some kind of active power source in them which makes them light up like a Christmas tree in IR, making them far easier to see at night. So that's a thing.

[Abyss]

 Werthead, on 25 May 2025 - 11:00 PM, said:

Apparently Russia issued "drone-invisible" camouflage jackets to its troops on the front line several weeks ago. According to Ukrainian sources, these jackets have some kind of active power source in them which makes them light up like a Christmas tree in IR, making them far easier to see at night. So that's a thing.

They just keep... doing... stuff.

[Tiste Simeon]

Abyss, on 26 May 2025 - 02:20 AM, said:

Werthead, on 25 May 2025 - 11:00 PM, said:

Apparently Russia issued "drone-invisible" camouflage jackets to its troops on the front line several weeks ago. According to Ukrainian sources, these jackets have some kind of active power source in them which makes them light up like a Christmas tree in IR, making them far easier to see at night. So that's a thing.

They just keep... doing... stuff.

Can't wait till they release their incredible "bullet-less guns"!

[Abyss]

Tiste Simeon, on 26 May 2025 - 07:24 AM, said:

Abyss, on 26 May 2025 - 02:20 AM, said:

Werthead, on 25 May 2025 - 11:00 PM, said:

Apparently Russia issued "drone-invisible" camouflage jackets to its troops on the front line several weeks ago. According to Ukrainian sources, these jackets have some kind of active power source in them which makes them light up like a Christmas tree in IR, making them far easier to see at night. So that's a thing.

They just keep... doing... stuff.

Can't wait till they release their incredible "bullet-less guns"!

Anti-drone weapons that are actually super-soakers.

[Werthead]

Ukraine has field-tested Sky Sentinel, an autonomous AA gun battery that requires no human operator and can engage drones at close to medium ranges. The weapon has already shown effectiveness under battlefield conditions.

US Ukraine envoy Kellogg (who seems back in favour in the White House) has said that US intelligence now believes 1.2 million Russians and Ukrainians have been killed or wounded in the war to date. Other European sources peg the total number of Russians killed and wounded at around 950,000, probably surpassing 1 million (with ~300-350K KIA) by the end of summer. The total figure appears to be an underestimate, with some Ukrainian sources putting Ukrainian casualties at around 80-90,000 KIA and another 300K+ wounded.

Ukraine has engaged troop formations in Kharkiv Oblast, with around 120,000 Russians believed to be in Kharkiv Oblast. They have not engaged either the Ukrainian positions in Kharkiv or Belgorod Oblasts in force, suggesting they might be planning a further incursion into Sumy Oblast (where Russia has established a tiny bridgehead).

Another force, of equal or greater size, appears to be amassing behind the lines on the Zaporizhzhia sector. Some Ukrainian sources believe this will be the main summer effort and it may have already started, with fresh attacks on the Pokrovsk front. The Toretsk front has also seen considerable activity in the last week, with Russian forces securing more territory on the southern edge of the sector.

Russia is producing roughly 100 more ballistic missiles per year more than Ukraine's allies can source Patriot interceptors. The USA is planning to increase Patriot production, but it is also restocking its own resources, and launchers in the Pacific and Europe, creating a logjam.

The last Dutch F-16s have arrived in Ukraine.

Germany, France and the UK have removed all limitations on Ukraine's targeting with European-supplied weapon systems. However, Germany is still dragging its feet on supplying Taurus missiles.

Bild, the German tabloid, has been criticised after suggesting Poles and Lithuanians were "fleeing" the Suwalki Gap for fear of conflict with Russia.

[Mentalist]

Orcs want a new round on Instanbul talks on June 2nd

Lifting restrictions on using Western cruise missiles on muscovy is nice... provided you have those missiles. The situation with Scalps and Storm Shadows is pretty grim, And I don't think even a few hundred Tauruses can make a major difference.

The more significant news are when Western states and MIC firms are making joint partnership deals to bankroll weapons and ammo production in UA. Apparently, UkrOboronProm and UA MoD are lose to getting licensing deals for domestic production of Western anti-air. if UA can start manufacturing patriot missiles at home, that would make the situation a lot better.

Loads of rumour mongering about where "the big summer push" will be; at the moment, they crossed the road b/w Pokrovs'k and Konstyantynivka, which is problematic, b/c it means Donbas is practically split into several theatres now. Although they haven't broken through Torets'k fully yet, this does give them a rough semi-encirclement, albeit the radius is still 15-20 km. So it's certainly not a positive development.

[QuickTidal]

This dude is 100% going after the former Warsaw Pact countries...like he wants the USSR to live again under him.

[Garak]

Honestly I've suspected that since this thing started.

[Mentalist]

HUR blew up something in Vladivostok. Probably nothing major, but it's the distance and reach that matters.

Former commander of airstrikes int he siege of Mariupol who since retired and became deputy mayor of Stavropol' got blown up. The story is sketchy, since he was killed by an IED carried by a young former police officer, whom he met on a gay dating site.

The orcs are pushing hard from Kurs'k into Sumy. They are using their airborne and naval infantry units, and are making some limited gains. The frontline is 30 km from Sumy- with FPV range being 25 km, so if they are able to advance much more, then the city will come under heavy fire. Which doesn't mean they'll be able to take the city, mind.

UA's MFA Sybiha indicated that UA's currently producing 40% of the military hardware and supplies it needs. The more foreign investment can be brought in, the higher those numbers will be, and the less dependencies on the US will be.

[Werthead]

The German-Ukrainian deal today didn't look like a big thing, but on a second inspection it seems to basically be throwing the weight of the German economy (several times the size of Russia's) behind Ukraine's military spending and armament, which is quite a big deal (and suddenly explains why Russia has gone ballistic over it). Interesting to see how that goes.

Russia now appears to have initiated a large-scale border incursion in Sumy Oblast. Ukraine engaged the forces before they even crossed the border with artillery, HIMARS, drones and air power, but it looks like Russia has active AA assets in this sector, preventing close engagement by Ukrainian aircraft. Russian forces are being engaged by an active defence and haven't yet actually reached the main defensive lines a few miles inside the border. Their target is unclear, possibly the city of Sumy and moving to the southern border to threaten Kharkiv from the north-west, but that's massively ambitious.

[Werthead]

Ukraine has launched what could be the single most devastating strategic attack of the war, Operation Spiderweb.

More than 40 Russian strategic bombers and cruise-missile carriers, AWACS-equivalent aircraft, air defences and weapons and fuel storage at four major airbases have been hit hard. Drones were smuggled into Russia more than 18 months ago in trucks which were driven close to the airbases, hidden in plain sight, and then opened up to launch short-range drones close to Russian airbases hundreds of miles from the border.

At the moment Ivanovo Severny Airbase, Belaya (5500 km from the border), Olenya Airbase on the Kola Peninsula near Murmansk, Dyagilevo Airbase 200km SE of Moscow and Ivanovov Airfield, 300km NE of Moscow have all been targeted and hit.

Apparently the Voskresnsk Severka Airfield near Moscow was also hit, but this is a small airfield that does not host significant military forces. Unclear what happened there.

The main headquarters of the Russian Northern Fleet in Severomorsk, Murmansk has also been attacked, with an admin building left burning.

The attack was carried out by 150 small attack drones and 300 munitions. 116 drones used autonomous guidance with signals piggybacked off the Russian telecoms network. Ukraine was able to maintain control of the vehicles right up to impact, which surprised them (the Russians didn't seem to think to shut off the telecoms system). 

One Ukrainian truck apparently exploded during the launch procedure, suggesting a drone misfired. A second truck was spotted by local Russian residents who tried to stop the drones from taking off, to no avail.

Full damage report not yet provided, but confirmed footage of one A-50 AEW&C aircraft destroyed and at least three Tu-95 strategic bombers arranged in a row blown up one after the other, and two to three other bombers destroyed. At least one Tu-22 has been destroyed as well.

The financial cost of the attack to Russia has been estimated at $2 billion.

Unfortunately Russia was able to target a training ground in Ukraine with long-range weapons, killing 12 Ukrainian soldiers. Mykhailo Drapatyi has resigned as Commander of the Ukrainian Ground Forces as a result.

Ukraine has also carried out systemic drone, artillery and HIMARS strikes targeting logistics centres, bridges and rail heads along the border with Sumy and Kursk Oblasts, seeking to destroy Russian reinforcements for the offensive in that sector and deny them resupply.

At least one Russian train has derailed with civilian casualties. Russia has blamed Ukraine, Ukraine has said it's a false flag attack. Ukraine has stepped up attacks on Russian railheads, military stations and loading centres deep behind the lines, particularly focusing on the rail-line linking Melitopol to Crimea.

Russia launched a drone attack on Ukraine overnight with over 470 drones. 380 were shot down.

Russian and Ukrainian representatives will meet in Istanbul, which should be interesting.

[Lady Bliss]

I heard that a group made it to Siberia and took out some missiles there too. Am I confused?

[Mentalist]

SBU set up truck containers with hidden compartments in the roofs that are full of drones, and hired Muscovite drivers to bring them near the airbases in question, before popping the tops and launching the drones remotely. Apparently they were AI trained to recognize the shapes of strategic bombers and attack autonomously, to avoid signal jamming.

SBU is stating that they've hit and damaged 34% of the orcs' strategic bomber fleet, for estimated cost of 7 billion USD. Including some Tu-160 strategic bombers at Belaya airbase (Irkuts'k Oblast'. central Siberia), which are super-long-range nuclear bombers.

The Ukrayinka airbase in Amur Oblast (the Far East) was also apparently an intended target, but that seems not to have panned out, as the container was intercepted early.

It's best to wait for confirmed results, obviously, but regardless, the hit is huge.

This post has been edited by Mentalist: 01 June 2025 - 08:43 PM