[Werthead]

Israel has transferred two Patriot air defence systems to Ukraine, along with 90 missiles. These are older platforms, possibly from the 2000s or earlier, so need some upgrading before they can enter service. The transfer was authorised by the USA. Four Kinzhal missiles were intercepted today by Patriots.

A Ukrainian special forces operation has destroyed or disabled two Russian fighter aircraft, a MiG-31 and Su-34.

Ukraine is unleashing very heavy artillery, HIMARS, drone and glide bomb attacks on Russian forces on the border of Sumy Oblast, and more gathering in Kursk Oblast behind them. Heavy damage to forwards logistics bases, troop concentrations and vehicles. Western analysis is split on whether the incursion into Sumy is a serious effort or a major diversion from the main front in Donetsk. The main concern in Sumy is not a breakthrough but Russian forces getting just close enough to Sumy to be able to hit it with tube artillery and short-range drones, subjecting it to the same kind of bombardment as Kharkiv and Kherson have been repelling for years.

A Ukrainian naval drone has attacked Russian special forces deployed on a gas platform in the Black Sea.

479 drones were launched at Ukraine last night, the largest number in a single attack (breaking several recent records).

[Werthead]

Russian casualties passed 1 million today, according to Ukrainian and some western estimates (based on intercepted Russian communications and analysis of funerals in Russia). That's 1 million killed, wounded, captured or deserted in total since 2022 (and may not even include casualties from the so-called Luhansk and Donetsk Peoples' Republics). KIA is estimated at between 250,000 and 310,000 or thereabouts.

Ukraine has launched what appears to be a focused counter-attack on the Sumy salient. This is something we saw before from them in Toretsk and Vovchansk, holding forces back and then hitting Russia as their effort is cresting and they are low on reinforcements. So far five settlements have been liberated and more are being contested.

19 regions of Russia lost mobile phone connections due to a concerted cyberattack.

Ukraine has deployed Bulava, a loitering drone designed to improve upon the Russian Lancet. The Bulava has already been field-tested on the battlefield.

Britain is discussing transferring Warrior fighting vehicles to Ukraine.

The Serbian President has visited Ukraine and offered to supply Ukraine with the money and resources to rebuild a Ukrainian city after the war ends. This appears to be part of a concerted effort by President Vucic to appease both sides during the conflict. Meanwhile, Hungary has been reprimanded for carrying out what appears to be military reconnaissance along its border with Ukraine. Hungary invading Ukraine is fantastically unlikely, but it might be an effort to force Ukraine to put more troops on the border with Hungary than is really necessary.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 12 June 2025 - 06:37 PM

[Macros]

Is the EU so badly set up that Orban can't be fucking smacked into line for shit like that?

[Werthead]

A close-range dogfight between two Su-25s over Donetsk Oblast, ending with one of the fighters being destroyed. Both aircraft were Russian though, so lots of confused people looking on. One suggestion it was a drill and one of the aircraft disintegrated due to excessive maneuvers. Baffling.

There is fierce fighting south-west of Pokrovsk, where the front comes within a few kilometres of the border with Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. The Russians seem to want to establish a toehold in that area. So far Ukraine is holding them back. It'd be a symbolic move, but would effectively complete the Russian occupation of southern Donetsk Oblast.

Fierce fighting has also resumed on the Lyman front, where not much progress has been made for some time, but the Ukrainian 63rd Brigade has reported a surprising, sharp rise in Russian soldiers surrendering. Some, mostly newer recruits, take part in a few attacks before giving up.

Possibly partisan activity in Makeevka, Donetsk Oblast, with a Russian military convoy attacked and destroyed.

Ukrainian commentators bemoaning the Israeli attack on Iran did not happen two years ago, when it would have likely seriously damaged Russia's supply of Shahed drones. However, Russia has since opened Shahed production sites in Tatarstan, so can build its own at pace (though engines apparently are still coming from Iran direct).

[Werthead]

The main Shahed production factory in Tatarstan has taken a drone hit. It's over 700 miles from the Ukrainian border.

This sounds a bit conspiracy-ish, but apparently an Israeli company has rented out a large amount of office space in Kyiv and paid a large amount of money for it, but has not moved in and is unlikely to move in whilst the conflict is continuing. Some suggestion that Israel has clandestinely paid Ukraine for intelligence information on Iranian drones, long-range drone tactics and their use of intelligence on the ground to launch drones from inside hostile territory. The recent transfer of two Israeli Patriot batteries to Ukraine (which an official spokesman denied, despite everyone else and their aunt confirming it's happened) might be also part of this.

Ukrainian intelligence agents have reportedly infiltrated Kaliningrad and disabled an electricity power station.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 15 June 2025 - 08:05 PM

[Cause]

I would be suprised if Israel and Ukraine haven’t been talking. The second Iran got involved in supplying drones Israel would have been interested. It had to balance that against Russias presence in Syria but not any loner. Same with South Korea, the moment North Korean troops hit the battlefield South Koreas notice got much more intense.

Operation spiderweb and what happened in Tehran are very similarly. Both however are over a year in the making. It could be convergent evolution of drone warfare or it could suggest an exchange of ideas. Impossible to say. The fact that it’s so similar and so close together in time is remarkable though. Conspiracy theories will spontaneous develope.

It’s interesting that Israel would part with two patriots before striking Iran. It would suggest that it’s outdated in regards to the iron dome or Israel was so confident they didn’t need it or perhaps they just thought canceling the exchange would tip their hand.

The Israeli conflict has probably been one of the worst things for Ukraine in the way that it sucked so much attention away from their own conflict. Not necessarily government or military attention but the attention of everyday people.

The drone warfare aspect is very frightening. It suggests that foreign actors, terrorist and even homegrown threats can create deadly attacks from anywhere thanks to ubiquitous drone technology, remote controls and AI. Already I see Americans shouting about Chinese owned land near US bases. I could probably buy a ship drone from Costco and attach a home made explosive and fly it into a crowd. These drone nests could be set up over years and perhaps decades in advance either as a just in case contingency or as part of a long term plan.

How would Taiwan hypothetically be able to ensure that no such drone nest is built on the island. How will Israel stop Iran doing it to them? Government backed teams will have access to all the drones, drone parts they will want. The software is probably the easiest component. I suspect it’s already monitored but ordering too many of anything drone related will send up red flags in databases but I suspect this is easily circumvented.

Frightening new chapter for us all.

[Tapper]

Maybe I am too optimistic, but ECM and interception methods seem to catch up extremely quickly over the course of the war in Ukraine, to the point where what was cutting edge last year is easily neutralised now. I guess the main fear is the usage of drones for terror, but isn’t terror anyway the use of mundane means to create mass casualties? You can still buy gas canisters or buy demolitions explosives, despite how easy it is to turn these into something much more sinister.

[Werthead]

A leaked FSB memo has reportedly called China "the enemy" of Russia and expressed concern about Beijing's espionage, stealing military secrets, and redrawing maps of Siberia to show Chinese place names. Some Russian Telegram commentators have been saying for a while that they were worried about Russia because a "Belarus to China", and many are unhappy with Xi's big words of support not translating into firmer support. Areas where China is working with Russia, like expanding exploration of the Arctic, seems more to be for China's geopolitical position than for helping an ally.

A number of Russian units previously identified on the ground in Sumy Oblast are now back in Kursk Oblast. This is unlikely to be a troop rotation so early in the operation, suggesting instead they've had to retire due to heavy casualties.

Russian air defence seems to have been thinned out considerably along most of the front, allowing Ukrainian MiG-29s to directly attack Russian positions in Kherson. Ukraine may even be starting to achieve air superiority over some parts of the front, with Russia unwilling to bring forward increasingly rare S-400s and S-300s for fear of losing them. 

A Ukrainian drone team destroyed a Russian BM-21 Grad launcher and intercepted communications saying that the Grad had been equipped with chemical munitions, which had sprayed over the crew during the explosion.

Ukraine has many more Russian PoWs than Russia has Ukrainian PoWs, so Russia has suggested swapping kidnapped Ukrainian children for Russian PoWs, which is contemptible, but at least one way of getting them back.

Maksim Oreshnik, deputy head of the Russian presidential administration, has expressed concern over the Russian economy. The Russian economy is now growing at the lowest rate since February 2022, and the Russian Centre for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting believes that Russia's civilian sector is already in recession this year. To make up for Gazprom losses, the Russian government is planning to increase industrial gas tariffs twice this year, raise income tax to 25% and introducing progressive personal income tax scale for high incomes.