[Mentalist]

Hey, Garak, looks like you guys dodged the bullet.

Polish election also went decently, with the ultra-nationalists losing out, and the runoff happening between the 2 main parties, both of which are supportive to UA to different degrees.

If Romania elected a mini-Orban, UA would've had a very hard time.

[Garak]

Yesterday was nerve wracking. Today might be interesting as well but hopefully not. Simion was yelling about stolen election and protesting. But considering how Simion avoided debates, ran from people and managed to puss off the French right - this guy is nothing but cheap talk so far. That said it's still worrying how many voted for a hooligan, especially Romanians in other EU countries.

Plus now they will be the opposition in gov and probably try to screw everything up so next round they claim it would have all been great if they had won (classic PSD tactic, no reason for AUR not to use it). Basically we got more bullets on the way.

But yes for now, we dodged this one.

EDIT: No protests, looks like he chickened out of it. Just like the debates.

This post has been edited by Garak: 19 May 2025 - 12:26 PM

[Mentalist]

putler and trump had a 2-hour call.
trump is now excited about MASSIVE TRADE opportunities, once UA and muscovy manage to *checks notes* "negotiate a ceasefire and the end to the war".

why exactly we'd have any meaningful negotiations, when the orcs want UA to lose its sovereignty in the process, remains unclear.

[Werthead]

In one of his few recent, cogent statements, Vance has said that Putin "doesn't quite know how to get out of the war," which I think is accurate. Putin knows the maximalist position is unachievable but settling for much less could weaken his position. It sounds like what had previously been Russia's secondary position - basically settle for the current battlefield front line with some adjustments (swapping the Russian positions in Kharkiv and Sumy for the Ukrainian positions in Kursk and Belgorod seems obvious) was achievable, but he refused to go for it. Unclear why; possibly he knew that Ukraine would arm itself to the teeth and there'd be NATO troops on Ukrainian territory, hugely complicating future plans. However, the current tempo of operations and losses seems unsustainable. Russia has developed significant shortages in manpower and air defences, although given Ukrainian difficulties in achieving successful ground offensives through heavy Russian defensive lines, they may be willing to risk those weaknesses getting worse.

Trump's phone call with Putin was, obviously, a nothingburger. Putin even said he liked Trump's wife, a furtherance of recent Russian media positions insulting her (Russian state media was pushing nude photos of Melania a while back) which went right over Trump's head, as per usual. The US and Russia agreed to swap 9 prisoners of each other's nationality or of interest to the other party, and Russia proposed another meeting with the Ukrainian side. No solid progress was made. One positive bit was that Trump called Zelensky first and apparently put some of Zelensky's positions to Putin, including the importance of the American-backed 30-day ceasefire, which Putin was non-committal on.

[Mentalist]

putler is banking on making good progress over the summer campaign. And he's factoring in the fact that US will cease providing aid in mid-summer.

I'm pretty sure that trump is okay with letting him try, since he doesn't lose anything by doing this.

[Garak]

So if monday was nice and peaceful (while Simion probably went to his masters) the circus is back in town. He is now yelling that the elections were stolen, that we are lucky to have avoided a bloodbath in the weekend (this is the second time in the last week he's threatened violence against those who didn't vote for him) and that he will contest the elections, both here and internationally. Russia also said our elections were rigged, like we care what they think of it. I doubt much will come of this (I hope) , I suspect the aim is just to keep creating chaos and destabilize the country.

[Werthead]

Russia has pointed out that Putin could not travel to the Vatican for peace talks as Italy would be obligated to arrest him. Talks elsewhere, where the ICC is not an issue, are possible.

Ukraine has apparently initiated a massive drone assault against Russian targets tonight, multiple Telegram channels are sounding alarms. The scale of the action is unclear, but Russia claimed over 180 drones took part in a single strike on Russian soil (including Moscow) earlier today. The Patriot Expo centre near Moscow was hit. The Rosneft facility in Ryazan, which has been hit before, has taken at least two major impacts. The Splav Defence Plant in Tula, which builds MLRS and air-launched rockets, was also hit and severely damaged. It appears some mobile phone masts around Moscow were hit. Two of Moscow's airports closed down for part of the day, and a semiconductor plant was hit.

Ukraine has also confirmed plans to integrate returning Ukrainian refugees back into society, including building new homes and possibly entirely new settlements to accommodate them.

The EU is to suspend Hungary's involvement in Ukrainian accession talks and will move forwards without consulting Orban's government. The idea seems to be to get Hungary onboard so they can at least be involved in the process. The EU has also said that Article 7, suspending Hungary's voting rights in the EU Parliament, could be enacted if obstructionism continues. Ukraine has also proposed integrating Ukraine's defensive systems with those of fellow EU states in 2026, long before accession, in return for funding assistance.

Putin advisor Sergey Markov has confirmed that Russia has suffered "several hundred thousands" KIA in Ukraine, the first time a Russian source has confirmed the enormous scale of the losses in Ukraine.

Ukraine identified a Russian vehicle and arms dump in Lgov, Kursk Oblast, and destroyed it. Ukrainian forces on the front have also destroyed a Tor SAM system, a Buk-M3 and an S-300 complex, as well as another TOS-1A flamethrower system.

Ukrainian intelligence has reported that Russia has deployed "blind" AA systems to Crimea because they've run out of radar units. These units rely on optical means to track targets, which is far from ideal.

The first Australian Abrams tanks are arriving in Ukraine. 49 in total are expected.

The new commander of the Russian ground forces has said that the war in Ukraine is only a "stepping stone" to a further campaign in Eastern Europe.

A Finnish MEP with access to Finnish defence intelligence has said he thinks Russia cannot sustain the war much beyond this year, and will risk getting into "serious" trouble with its economy.