[Werthead]

A Russian Borisoglebsk-2 electronics warfare station has been destroyed, worth over $200 million. Russia does not have a lot of these.

The US blocked a G7 statement condemning the Russian terror attack on Sumy, saying it might disrupt peace talks. The death toll has risen to 35, with 119 injured. Russia launched a second drone attack on Sumy the following day.

Ukraine launched a significant drone attack on Kursk Oblast, targeting ammo depots, fuel storage systems and mustering points that the Russians had brought forwards for their recent offensive. It's unclear why Russia hasn't dropped them back out of short-range drone range. The HQ of the Russian 448th Missile Brigade was also destroyed. This is the unit believed to have launched Iskander missiles at Sumy.

The UK has transferred an extra $1 billion from frozen Russian assets to Ukraine.

Ukraine has offered $15 billion to the United States to purchase 10 additional Patriot air defence systems.

Russian TV posted a video showing drone operators working out of residential buildings in Moscow, with enough information to be geolocated. Russian TV deleted the video quickly, but not before screengrabs could be obtained.

Fighting around Pokrovsk continues, with Russian forces back in Shevchenko (yet again) but Ukrainian forces continuing to fight off a Russian attack on Pischane just to the west.

The European Union has told President Vucic that Serbia's EU accession process will be indefinitely halted if he attends Russia's May 9 parade. Fico of Slovakia has said he will be attending no matter what.

Ukraine has retaken Dniproenerhiya on the Novopavlivka front following several engagements. The Russians attempted to attack the Vesele-Skudne line with a massive assault involving 25 vehicles, but the Ukrainian counter-attack was so successful it was able to roll back the Russian line behind it and establish more favourable positions.

[Werthead]

Russia was assembling a mechanized convoy in Belgorod Oblast that was hit by drones and artillery. Russian sources indicated 60 KIA and a substantial number more injured, one of the most damaging strikes on a Russian formation in a while.

The barracks of the Russian 112th Missile Brigade in Shuya took a very heavy hit, with dozens at least injured. This is the unit which is believed to have launched the Iskander attack on Sumy last week.

Several downed Shahed drones recovered by Ukraine have been tainted with chemical compounds designed to injure anyone trying to handle them. Ukrainian sources have issued guidelines to be careful handling debris.

Danish soldiers will be trained on Ukrainian soil, learning modern warfare techniques including drone use. They will not be deployed close to the front.

Ukraine has unveiled a low-cost cruise missile called "Bars" with an 800km range.

The US-Ukraine mineral deal is back on, after the US agreed to reduce its estimates of US aid to Ukraine from a preposterous $300 billion to around $100 billion, which is more adjacent to reality.

The Ukrainian 82nd Air Assault Brigade defeated a Russian attempt in Kursk Oblast to break into the last bit of Ukrainian-held territory. The attack was one of the most mismatched we've seen, with tanks and APCs accompanying Russian soldiers riding golf carts. Six vehicles were destroyed during the attack.

115 Ukrainian drones targeted Russian military targets across Kursk and Moscow Oblasts overnight.

One estimate is that Russia has lost just under 10,000 vehicles involved in resupply efforts in just the last three months, including tankers, cars and vans.

UEFA banned a minute's silence for the war dead before the start of a futsal game between Romania and Ukraine. Instead, the players tapped the ball once and then remained silent for one minute before resuming the game.

[Werthead]

Rheinmetall is planning to produce 1.1 million shells a year once its new plants in Spain, Germany and Ukraine are all up and running (an ad hoc facility in Ukraine already is, the others are on their way). That's the sort of numbers we should have been talking about in 2022, but better late than never.

Ukraine has achieved a surprise counter-offensive on the Luhansk front (where Russia controls the overwhelming majority of the oblast). A Russian attack was defeated, Ukraine achieved artillery supremacy and devastated the Russian defensive lines, and then retook the village of Nadiya. This may be older news from a couple of weeks ago, not widely circulated until now.

A Russian offensive in Zaporizhzhia was defeated with heavy losses, including 320 soldiers neutralised and 40 armored vehicles destroyed. Another assault on the Siversk front saw a tank and infantry formation using motorbikes all destroyed. A further attack on the Kharkiv-Luhansk border saw 2 IFVs destroyed and several buggies coming to assist eliminated.

Ukrainian aircraft using guided and glide bombs have conducted a systematic series of attacks on bridges in Russia's Bryansk and Belgorod Oblasts. Two were destroyed completely, others appear damaged. The point of the attacks is to severely complicated resupply efforts closer to the front. This also confirms a growing absence of Russian AA over the front, with S-400 and S-300 assets now pulled further back (and Buk and Pantsir replacements are not as effective, though more numerous). This allows Ukrainian aircraft, including F-16s and Mirages, to start hitting targets at greater range.

Ukraine has increased domestic missile production by 2100% since the start of the conflict. They also report that this year they expect to hit a 40% domestic production rate for all war-related requirements, and increase that to over half in 2026. This is a massive increase from 2022. Ukraine estimates it will construct at least double the number of domestic drones in 2024 versus 2025, including supplies from allies that might get closer to triple (they'd previously hoped quadruple, so we'll see how that goes).

One Russia unit apparently rebelled after being told to go to the front without body armour, weapons or ammunition and "take what you need from the dead." A Russian PoW says his unit was sent into battle by charging straight at Ukrainian positions without drone or artillery cover, and his commanding officer was permanently drunk. He also says that Russian soldiers have been tied to trees as part of disciplinary procedures and deliberately left to be killed by Ukrainian forces (apparently the number who aren't killed but instead taken captive was a surprise, they'd been told they'd be killed on sight by Ukrainian forces).

100 Russian soldiers detained for going AWOL have broken out of a military police holding facility in Krasnodar, and apparently rioted. Unclear what the current situation is.

Ukraine and Russia have agreed to a prisoner swap tomorrow, 246 on each side.

Poland and Lithuania have agreed to reinforce and fortify the Suwalki Corridor.

Kharkiv was hit by 3 Iskander-M ballistic missiles, with over 110 civilians injured. The missiles hit urban areas and apartment blocks, with no viable military targets nearby. Only one person was killed, which seems incredibly lucky for the people. Kherson city has also been hit by four glide bombs.

Russian positions around the recently-retaken town of Sudzha, in Kursk Oblast, are massively exposed to drones and air-launched missiles. The Russian forces there are taking huge losses, and have asked for body bags to be sent in large numbers from volunteer efforts.

Ukraine continues to reject the USA's more insane demands for a minerals deal, but instead signed a memorandum of understanding that negotiations would continue.

Japan has released $3 billion in frozen Russian assets to Ukraine.

President Meloni has apparently "convinced" Trump that Zelensky was not responsible for starting the conflict, since he was working as a comedian in 2014 and was not in public office.

[Garak]

That last bit will only last until someone else says something in hearing range of Trump. I saw Rubio was making noise that if nothing is agreed upon soon then the US will "pass" on the peace talks. Bunch of clowns.

[Tapper]

Garak, on 19 April 2025 - 06:52 AM, said:

That last bit will only last until someone else says something in hearing range of Trump. I saw Rubio was making noise that if nothing is agreed upon soon then the US will "pass" on the peace talks. Bunch of clowns.

And that after pressing for that mineral deal without security guarantees. Mind you, it might be a blessing in disguise for Ukraine judging by what The Guardian reports (settlement according to current frontlines, plus no NATO membership for Ukraine).

[Tiste Simeon]

Ok so why are they so adamant that Ukraine not join NATO? I've never quite been clear on who believes what and why in relation to this. Ukraine gave up nukes to be able to join right?

[Mentalist]

Tiste Simeon, on 19 April 2025 - 05:30 PM, said:

Ok so why are they so adamant that Ukraine not join NATO? I've never quite been clear on who believes what and why in relation to this. Ukraine gave up nukes to be able to join right?

UA, Belarus and Kazakhstan relinquished their nukes in exchange for "assurances" (not to be confused with "guarantees" apparently) of their sovereignty and territorial integrity from Muscovy, the US and the UK (later joined by France and China). In Ukraine's case (as holder of the 3rd largest nuclear arsenal in the world in 1992), it was a fundamental goodwill gesture towards global non-proliferation.

There is a common misconception that there's a requirement that a state aspiring to join NATO must have no active territorial disputes, b/c extending Article 5 protection on such a state would automatically bring NATO into conflict with whomever the dispute is with (and yet West Germany joined NATO in the 60s). It's not a written requirement per se, but rather an "unwritten rule". Which is basically the same thing, since any state that joins NATO has to be approved by a unanimous vote. And there's loads of NATO members that don't want to *checks notes* "provoke Putler".

[Tiste Simeon]

I mean that just sounds like mafie protection racketeering but what do I know? ʅ(ツ)ʃ

[Werthead]

Ukraine joining NATO prevents Russia from annexing it piecemeal, because Russia cannot win a conventional war against NATO (it's barely "winning" one against Ukraine, and that's "winning" by "losing half the territory it captured in the first three months of the conflict and obliterating its economy in the process whilst losing 1 million casualties, probably a third of them killed or maimed for life") and can't really afford to risk it.

From the US point of view, adding Ukraine to NATO gives them more territory to have to watch over, more directly exposed to Russian positions. They traditionally think Ukraine (and Belarus) is better-used as a buffer to Russia. The current US administration seems a bit dense, thinking of Ukraine as a minor power, and they've not taking on board that adding Ukraine to NATO would add a huge, well-trained military with capabilities nobody else in NATO - not even the US - has in terms of drone warfare. It also massively dissuades future Russian adventurism: Russia won't be able to attack the Baltic States without considering the risk of Ukraine launching an attack to reclaim its lost territories. It forces Russia to either commit to a future war on a broad front across the Baltics, Finland, Poland and Ukraine simultaneously, which is likely beyond its capabilities, or a future second assault on Ukraine (which may go no better than this one and possibly far worse) before taking on the rest of NATO. Ukraine inside NATO is better for NATO and permanently dissuading Russian aggression. Ukraine outside of it without comparable security guarantees likely encourages future adventurism.

[Werthead]

Russia launched a massive push on the Zaporizhzhia front with over 300 troops and 40 vehicles. Ukraine's 128th Mountain Assault Brigade engaged the Russians when they were still 8km from the front, with drones and artillery. By the time the Russian forces reached the front, Ukrainian infantry, mortars and tanks were ready to attack. 29 Russian vehicles were destroyed and around 140 Russian troops were neutralised. No Ukrainian positions were lost. This seems like a particularly stupid attack, but not surprising.

A Russian armed attack has also taking place near the Dnipropetrovsk border. Russia spent three days assembling a formation of IFVs, amour and infantry which were spotted by recon drones. The advance was eliminated by a mixed formation of Ukrainian drones, artillery and snipers. The Russians lacked heavy vehicles so tried to use bikes to make up for the deficiency. Failing, obviously.

In one of the weirder engagements of the war so far, Russian forces welded armour plates to a train and accelerated it down the track to, presumably, try to smash through the Ukrainian front (in a place where the front crosses a rail line. The Ukrainians simply hit the train engine with a single drone, that disabled it and left it rolling to a stop miles from the front.

Ukraine seems to have launched a concerted assault using drones and artillery in Kherson Oblast, targeting enemy drone positions. Russian drones are causing havoc for civilians in Kherson city (resulting recently in some Kherson police and civilians being issued weapons specifically to engage drones), so Ukraine seems to be trying to push back Russian drone operator positions from the south bank of the Dnipro, which would limit their range. At least one Russian-controlled building in the targeted area was levelled by a pair of French Hammer bombs back in February. Over a dozen Russian UAV operators were also killed when their operating headquarters in Kursk Oblast near Tyotkino was destroyed.

Some more footage of Russian Buk-M2 SAMs being destroyed, by artillery and possibly by air-launched missile. Russia seems to have pulled its heavy-hitter AA systems back from the front, allowing Ukrainian air power to deploy more closely to the front. These medium and closer-range AA systems are vulnerable to being attacked from outside of their own engagement range.

Ukraine's drone upgrade programme has allowed its lighter FPVs to engage Russian Forpost-R high-altitude recon drones at an altitude of 13,000 feet. Previously drones operating at this height were impossible to target with other drones and had to be taken out with much more expensive AA missiles.

Russia and Iran have ratified their strategic partnership. The final text is underwhelming, with both countries only agreeing "not to aid the aggressor" in any attack on either country.

[Werthead]

Some reports that Putin has privately agreed to freeze the front lines and redesignate the boundaries of the four annexed oblasts to the current front. He apparently made the suggestion as Trump mooted withdrawing from the peace protest. The USA floated the idea to Ukraine of recognising the annexation of the fifth oblast, Crimea, but Ukraine apparently vetoed the idea. It said the most it would accept was a ceasefire and temporary recognition of the occupied territories as de facto Russian-administered pending future diplomacy. But it would not accept any territorial changes to its borders. European powers have confirmed they would also not recognise Crimea as Russian, unless Ukraine does so.

Other matters for discussion included a full Russian withdrawal from Kharkiv Oblast and its attempts to secure a foothold in Sumy, and Russia would pull back from some areas in Zaporizhzhia and Kherson Oblasts, whilst Ukraine would complete its evacuation from Kursk Oblast and pull out of Belgorod, where Ukrainian forces made some gains in recent days. Some of these elements, anyway, seemed to be "better" received.

The USA is apparently regrouping and coming at the issue from the angle of a ceasefire along current lines rather than any kind of permanent peace process. Russia is apparently mixed on whether it will accept peacekeepers near the front or not.

A Shahed production facility in Tatarstan has taken a heavy hit from Ukrainian drones. The 51th GRAU Arsenal in Kirzhach, Vladimir Oblast also took a massive hit from drones, with colossal explosions and some debris reported falling 10km from the site. This was a huge storage area for Russian ammunition and armaments, and seems to have been half-levelled.

Poland has urged China to bring its diplomatic weight to bear in convincing Russia to end the war, possibly with the carrot of better European-China relations in the face of American retreat. China is privately enthusiastic at the idea of getting Europe on-side, even at the expense of Russian relations, but in public is more measured. The Polish Foreign Minister also warned Russia to worry less about conquering Warsaw, Kyiv, Vilnius, Riga, Tallinn and Chisinau again, and instead worry about holding onto Haishenwai (the Chinese name for Vladivostok).

[Tsundoku]

Cross post.

https://forum.malaza...ost__p__1473748

[Werthead]

Ukraine has destroyed an Su-30SM aircraft at a military base near Rostov-on-Don. Seems to have been an intelligence-led operation.

The 51st GRAU Arsenal seems to have suffered secondary explosions levelling about two-thirds of the entire facility. Absolutely massive damage to one of Russia's largest surviving ammunition storage depots.

A Russian convoy apparently formed up to attack the Ukrainian lines near Nadiivka, and spent ages clearing out mines from the approaches. However, the 59th Brigade used drones to re-lay mines both in front of and behind the Russian convoy overnight without them noticing, so the convoy advanced into the mines lost several vehicles, tried to reverse out, lost more, then several drivers panicked and started driving whatever way they could, hitting more mines. The entire convoy was neutralised with no need for drones or artillery to engage.

Ukraine's 6th SOF Regiment launched a raid in Kursk Oblast, infiltrating Russian lines and destroying a Russian forward position held by North Korean soldiers. They reported at least 25 North Koreans KIA. The situation in Kursk seems to be rather chaotic, as Russia has failed to retake the last Ukrainian toeholds and heavy drone saturation is repeatedly hitting any Russian fixed position, including those around Sudzha. Russian forces have even called for reinforcements, saying they are losing a lot of troops.

Russia used a North Korean KN023 ballistic missile to hit a residential building in Kyiv, which seems insane. Fortunately, Ukraine's air defences took out the bulk of incoming ordinance and evacuation notices were given in time, explaining the relatively low casualty rate despite the sheer volume of the heavy bombardment. But at least a dozen people have been killed.

Even Fox News anchors have been asking Trump what concessions he has forced from Russia versus his angry, nonsensical diatribes about Ukraine.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 24 April 2025 - 07:53 PM

[Werthead]

Russia and North Korea are discussing deploying additional North Korean troops, including to occupied Ukranian territory in what would be a significant escalation of the conflict. However, the US has apparently re-initiated talks with North Korea behind the scenes, and separating NK from Russia may be one policy objective.

Ukrainian power engineers, well-used to reactivating power systems in difficult conditions, have offered to fly to Spain and Portugal to lend assistance to the power situation there.

The US has apparently, unofficially, agreed to drop demands for a Ukrainian election after pressure from European allies. The US-Ukraine mineral deal has also gotten back on the table after the US withdrew several of its more punishing demands.

Greece is apparently due to recall its Patriot launchers from Saudi Arabia, where it had lent them during the conflict with the Houthis. Greece is apparently toying with sending them to Ukraine, but some are urging they keep them in case of conflict with Turkey.

Putin has proposed a 3-day ceasefire during the WWII 80th anniversary celebrations next week. Ukraine has suggested they extend this to the 30-day ceasefire proposed by Trump, but Russia does not seem keen.

The Russian counterattack in Kursk continues to fail to dislodge the last area of Ukrainian control. A mechanised convoy has been destroyed in the Oleshnya area. A Russian drone storage depot in Kursk has also been destroyed, and a Russian microelectronics factory in Bryansk that builds components for Pantsirs and Iskanders.

Russian forces attempted to expand their tiny foothold in Sumy Oblast, but promptly ran into a Ukrainian minefield (that may have been laid overnight, after Russian engineers disabled part of the existing defences) and turned back with significant losses and no gains of territory.

Ukrainian aircraft have been hitting the Russian front lines in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, using glide bombs directly on the trenches. Effectiveness as yet unclear. 

A rare Ukrainian aircraft loss, with an Su-27 shot down near the front. The pilot bailed out and survived. Russia has possibly moved forwards AA assets it had previously withdrawn after losing too many of them.

Russia is expanding its military base at Petrozavodsk, near the Finnish border, and has started expanding railway capacity along the borders of Finland, Estonia and even the small border with Norway.

Three Ukrainian POWs were freed in the field after their comrades used drones to precisely target their Russian captors.

Ukrainian intelligence and battlefield monitoring now estimates that over 500,000 Russians are either KIA or so badly wounded they they physically cannot return to the fight. Total numbers of Russian KIA are believed to be approaching or have exceeded 300,000, with the total number of Russian casualties (KIA, wounded, captured, deserted) at over 900,000, though some of that latter number have returned to action.

Ukraine has received almost half a million shells under the Czech initiative this year, and will continued to receive around 125,000 artillery shells a month for the remainder of this year.

A large Russian oil facility in Novorossiysk has been hit and is ablaze.

A Norwegian assessment is that its NASAMS AA missile launchers in Ukraine have downed over 900 Russian aerial targets, with a hit rate of 94%.

Ukraine has carried out exercises in the western Black Sea with amphibious assault craft simulating an opposed beach landing.

[Lady Bliss]

What are the consequences if Ukraine signs Trump’s mineral deal. I can’t help but feel that Zelensky is being taken advantage of and will be screwed by it just like everyone else that Trump does business with?

[Mentalist]

Current deal is merely a memorandum of understanding. The substantive parts need to be negotiated further, and would have to be presented to the Ukrainian parliament for approval before anything can be signed.

Also, Ukraine negotiated the provision that the sum total of aid provided since the outbreak of the war WILL NOT be deemed to be Ukrainian "debt" owed to the US. So things aren't exactly terrible.

This post has been edited by Mentalist: 30 April 2025 - 07:17 PM

[Werthead]

Yup, this deal is far superior (for Ukraine) to the one being touted a few weeks back.

[Mentalist]

Worth noting, the deal focuses on graphite, Aluminum, oil and gas.

There's no mention of Lithium, Uranium, Titanium, or any of the other major minerals that the Shield portion of UA's right bank is actually full of. No mentions of agriculture or infrastructure ownership; So there's a lot of upsides compared to the horror stories we've seen with the first drafts.

meanwhile, trump authorized weapon sales, Lockheed martin setting up missile production in Europe, and old F16 planes are getting sent to UA "for parts"

[Werthead]

Ukraine has scored one for the history records: a Magura V5 USV (a sea drone) shot down a Russian Su-30 over the Black Sea with R-73 missiles. This is the first-ever shoot-down of a fast jet from an unmanned sea drone. Apparently the Russians are bricking it, with many via Telegram pointing out they may not be able to overfly the Black Sea at all for fear of these things showing up and letting off AA missiles.

Ukraine has also launched a massive aerial assault with drones and additional attacks with sea drones, all over Crimea. The Kerch Bridge air defences had to go into overdrive. Some attacks overflew Crimea to hit targets in Rostov. A P-18 radar command post and its AA defence system has been destroyed. Unconfirmed reports that another Su-30 was destroyed on the ground in Crimea.

In earlier attacks, Ukrainian drones destroyed multiple ST-68, Obzor-3 and Imbir radar stations across Crimea and destroyed an S-300 AA system. We've seen Russia pulling back S-400s from near the Ukrainian border and now S-300s seem to be in relatively short supply as well.

Ukrainian drones have also reached Murmansk (!) and engaged Russian air defences around the Olenya strategic bomber base.

A significant Russian push has been forming around the Kupyansk front for the last week or so but every actual attack has been beaten back with heavy losses.

Apparently all remaining pauses on new decisions about US aid to Ukraine have been lifted after the mineral deal. The White House has authorised spare parts and training for F-16 pilots. The slowing of supply of Patriot and ATACMS missiles should also be lifted, which should allow Ukraine to improve its long-range defence of the front.

The UK has completed delivery of all 68 of its AS-90 self-propelled howitzers to Ukraine. France has also said it will produce 1,200 AASM Hammer precision bombs in 2025 and will send all of them to Ukraine.

Some analysis of new Ukrainian tactics: Ukraine is no longer digging extensive trench fortifications, which are easy to see from the air and hard to cover against drones. Instead they dig small strongpoints and take shelter in them, acting as relays and spotters for huge numbers of drones. Serious Russian losses in recent weeks seem to have come from Russian recon drones spotting "holes" in the line and Russian forces attacking to exploit the weakness only to be smashed by incoming ordinance and Ukrainian forces attacking from the flanks. This tactic is cheaper and easier for Ukraine to achieve, and allows small groups of soldiers to defend large areas, sometimes with the Russians not even knowing where to attack.

The tactic is impressive but it has led to some vulnerabilities: one Russian force attacking near Pokrovsk apparently stumbled across the small Ukrainian strongpoints in their assault and were able to eliminate them, resulting in a gain of territory back towards the old Pokrovsk front line, which is frustrating.

Russian forces have also advanced on the Kreminna front, engaging Ukrainian defences near Yampolivka. The fighting here is fierce with Russian forces trying to eliminate Ukrainian positions east of a reservoir. So far the Ukrainians are holding.

Ukraine has rejected plans for a 3-day ceasefire on 7 May and instead proposed a 30-day ceasefire. The US has backed the proposal, Russia seems lukewarm.

Unconfirmed reports that Fico and Vucic will not be attending the Moscow Parade, possibly sensing that the wind from the US might not be flowing in the direction they thought it was going to go. Modi had already decided not to go and now his defence minister Singh has also backed out. Vucic is apparently in hospital, so that might be something serious.

Meanwhile, a small detachment of Ukrainian troops will join the British VE Day procession in London.

Trump's spiritual advisor Mark Burns apparently held a meeting with the US President and impressed upon him the need to support Ukraine to the hilt.

Ukraine has captured multiple African troops fighting for Russia. These particular troops were from Togo and were not trained military but students fighting for scholarships in Russian universities. The Togolese government has now sent warnings to all students that such offers are likely false.

A recon drone picked up on some weird footage of a Russian soldier leaving a shelter to grab a piece of ammunition and running back in the building to detonate it (presumably to his own demise and that of anyone nearby). It's unclear what that was about.

[Garak]

Round 1 of our Presidential Election is grim. The right wing isolationist anti-EU and pro-Russian candidate took the lion's share of the votes. It's gonna hard to defeat him in round two.