[Mentalist]

Garak, on 05 May 2025 - 07:02 AM, said:

Round 1 of our Presidential Election is grim. The right wing isolationist anti-EU and pro-Russian candidate took the lion's share of the votes. It's gonna hard to defeat him in round two.

Will Antonescu's supporters vote for the mayor in round 2?

[Werthead]

Ukraine has launched another incursion across the border into Kursk Oblast. They used new clearance vehicles to punch a significant hole in the border defences, penetrating the dragon's teeth obstacles in minutes and finding the defensive trenches beyond unmanned (Russian forces either having run off or not there in the first place). Scale of the incursion is unclear. Even the Ukrainian command staff seemed surprised by how easy it was. Tetkino and Novy Put in western Kursk seem to be under attack, Tetkino more successfully (some destroyed Ukrainian vehicles spotted near Novy Put) and they've blown the bridge over the Seym at Zvannoe (again).

Greece has declined to send Patriot launchers to Ukraine, saying they are needed at home (despite these specific launchers having just come back from Saudi Arabia, where they were being used against incoming Houthi ordinance).

The Russian line breach near Pokrovsk is being heavily contested by drones and artillery. The Phoenix drone regiment has launched a serious assault near Kupyansk, destroying significant Russian hardware that may have been massing for an attack, including multiple TOR air defence systems, two SPGs, three tanks and 17 troop-carrier trucks.

The 31st Brigade reports a massive wave of Russian assaults on their sector. Their defensive operations killed 90 Russian soldiers, wounded 50 and destroyed 60 vehicles in just two days, which is some of the fiercest fighting we've seen since Bakhmut. Some Russian troops were cut off and surrendered.

Ukrainian drones buzzed Nadym Airport, Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous District, over 2,500km from the Ukrainian border. This may be the deepest penetration of Russian airspace by Ukrainian drones to date.

Trump has said in an NBC interview that Russia may have to "give up all of Ukraine." He has also said that he has spoken to Erdogan about Turkey taking a leading role in future negotiations.

Sevastopol has cancelled plans for a victory parade, citing security concerns.

European rearmament plans call for using Ukraine as a manufacturer and supplier of high-end hardware, especially drones, cruise missiles and air defence. Some EU defence analysts saying that Ukraine is building significantly superior, battlefield-tested equipment to the United States at half or less the cost.

North Korea has sent 15,000 workers to help address manpower shortfalls in Russian industry. Russian state media has reported plans to form a "North Korean army" to attack (checks notes) Sweden and Finland.

In an interview, Putin has said he wanted to launch a full-scale attack on Ukraine in 2014 but feared doing so would trigger a confrontation with the west. Only when seeing their tepid response to the Crimea annexation did he start planning the invasion.

Ukraine reporting the second Su-30 loss was not on the tarmac in Crimea but in the air over the Black Sea as well. Sidewinders were also used, not Soviet AA missiles.

[Tiste Simeon]

Quote

Trump has said in an NBC interview that Russia may have to "give up all of Ukraine." He has also said that he has spoken to Erdogan about Turkey taking a leading role in future negotiations.

I know he's unhinged and likely dementia riddled but surely this constant u-turning is terrible optics even for his most rabid cult follower? Surely there's someone left with more than two brain cells to rub together who can try and get a handle on him?

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Tiste Simeon, on 05 May 2025 - 05:15 PM, said:

Quote

Trump has said in an NBC interview that Russia may have to "give up all of Ukraine." He has also said that he has spoken to Erdogan about Turkey taking a leading role in future negotiations.

I know he's unhinged and likely dementia riddled but surely this constant u-turning is terrible optics even for his most rabid cult follower? Surely there's someone left with more than two brain cells to rub together who can try and get a handle on him?

"Trump works in mysterious ways,
His wonders to perform.
He plants his lips upon the streams
And flows withouten gorm"

[Abyss]

Tiste Simeon, on 05 May 2025 - 05:15 PM, said:

... Surely there's someone left with more than two brain cells to rub together who can try and get a handle on him?

Evidence suggests nope.

[Mentalist]

Trump's actual quote was "they'll have to give up on taking all of Ukraine"

Which basically means "please putler-senpai, give me a status quo ceasefire, so that I can haz Nobel peace Prize"

In the 90s there used to be a joke. A Ukrainian catches a goldfish, and she says she will grant him 3 wishes (due to all the Pushkin in our curriculum, it's a goldfish instead of a genie).

So the 1st wish: make it so that Finland attacks Mongolia.

Second wish: hmm, let's do it again!

Third wish... and again!

So then the fish asks him, "Listen, what's your beef with the Mongols?"
-Oh, nothing, lovely people, God bless them. But just think of the Finnish army going back and forth across Muscovy like that!


And now I guess we're seeing a variation of that IRL.

[Garak]

Mentalist, on 05 May 2025 - 04:45 PM, said:

Garak, on 05 May 2025 - 07:02 AM, said:

Round 1 of our Presidential Election is grim. The right wing isolationist anti-EU and pro-Russian candidate took the lion's share of the votes. It's gonna hard to defeat him in round two.

Will Antonescu's supporters vote for the mayor in round 2?

Honestly unknown. PSD has said they are pulling out of the coalition goverment and will not support either candidate - because acting like children and throwing a tantrum is exactly the kind of behavior people are sick of and thus vote for the extremist.

[Tiste Simeon]

 Mentalist, on 05 May 2025 - 07:11 PM, said:

Trump's actual quote was "they'll have to give up on taking all of Ukraine"

Which basically means "please putler-senpai, give me a status quo ceasefire, so that I can haz Nobel peace Prize"

Yes that makes a lot more sense and the word "taking" adds a lot of context. Thank you.

[Garak]

And now our currency is taking a hit as everyone panics. Ugh. We knew the coming year would suck but if foreign investors pull out we are so fucked.

Oh right, the asshole candidate and his goons might also inflamed things with the hungarians here in Transilvania because nationalist ideas and whatnot.

This post has been edited by Garak: 06 May 2025 - 10:49 AM

[Mentalist]

Kadyrov seemingly asked Putler to accept his resignation.

new prisoner swap- 205 for 205

UA targets Moscow Oblast' again. I think the goal is just to keep the sirens going while these foreign dignitaries are around.

Meanwhile, Germans did confirm Mertz as Chancellor, though it took 2 takes. Taurus missiles when?

UAF appears to have grabbed a toehold on the outskirts of Tyotkino, as per z-head whining. Remains to be seen if they can make a push from the E to cut off supply to it and secure the settlement.

[Chance]

Mentalist, on 06 May 2025 - 03:30 PM, said:

UA targets Moscow Oblast' again. I think the goal is just to keep the sirens going while these foreign dignitaries are around.

One or two explosions against something militarily relevant in the near area would probably be for the best during the celebrations. Simply to counter Putins attempt at projecting "I am in control".

[Werthead]

Russia has launched a more serious assault in the area of Novopavlivka. This seems to be a concerted effort to break the main front line in Zaporizhzhia Oblast and push on the oblast capital, the sixth or seventh-largest city in Ukraine. So far defences are holding.

It appears that a Ukrainian HIMARS strike on 2 May hit a concentration of Russian troops near Myrne, Zaporizhzhia. 22 soldiers were killed, along with 3 officers.

Ukraine reports it has stabilised the front on the Pokrovsk front after a bit of a wobble last week.

Russia has renewed attempts to land troops on the islands in the Dnipro river mouth near Kherson. They had paused after running dangerously low on troops, but efforts have restarted, with the predictable results. Ukrainian artillery on the high ground to the north around Kherson City, not to mention drone superiority, resulted in a mass Russian casualties. However, Kherson remains under almost daily attacks by Russian drones targeting civilians. Ukrainian forces in the area have also undertaken drone strikes on Russian forces defending the Kinburn Spit; Ukraine has previously landed forces on the spit as an attempt to outflank the main Russian defensive line in Kherson Oblast, with limited success.

A 68-year-old Russian man has carried out a one-man protest in Moscow, holding a sign from a bridge saying "Putin Hitler" before diving in the river.

Both manned and unmanned Ukrainian ships in the Black Sea have engaged Shaheds overflying the sea, mostly with Vampire SAM systems.

The USA has agreed to hand over an additional Patriot battery to Ukraine, one that was previously in active service in Israel and has been retired and refurbished.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 07 May 2025 - 08:55 PM

[Werthead]

Ukraine is continuing to target Russian positions along the front with air-launched Hammer bombs. The bombs' range is allowing Ukraine to deploy significant amounts of aviation without much fear of Russian counterfire.

Ukrainian forces have advanced in Kharkiv Oblast, retaking a forested area north of Lyptsi. Russian forces have been trying to advance here since November, but have lost almost 1500 troops and around 200 vehicles. The Russian forces seem to have simply run out of men and abandoned the effort. Amusingly, on the battlefield they designated this area "Berlin."

Two Ukrainian soldiers from the 108th Battalion held off a Russian assault by five troops and a vehicle near Pokrovsk. The Ukrainians were backed up drones, with the Russian attack neutralised.

The head of the Russian military medical commission in Crimea reportedly had a panic attack during a drone strike on Sevastopol on 2 May and ran outside to start shooting into the air. He shot himself in the head, possibly accidentally.

Turkish airlines have cancelled 40 flights to Moscow, leaving around 1500 Russians stranded in Turkey. Those who can't afford to pay for extra accommodation have been turfed out of their hotels. Ukrainian drone attacks have led to a large swathe of Russia shutting down its airports.

The recent strikes on the Shaikovka Airbase in Kaluga now appear to have disabled the airfield's ability to prep and fuel Kh-22 missiles. Fuel tanks and refuelling stations for aircraft were also destroyed.

No sign of a general ceasefire along the front, but it does appear that Russia has not launched any cruise missiles or long-range drones today. Short-range drone strikes, infantry, artillery and glide bomb attacks along the front continue as normal.

Russian forces set up an "ambush" on the southern front with tyre-puncturing strips and a cluster of anti-tank mines. The operation was undertaken in daylight in full view of Ukrainian drones, with predictable consequences.

Strelkov/Girkin has suggested that recent Russian advances in the Donbas region have moved outside the advantages provided by defensive fortifications and have been unable to build new defensive fortifications due to an increasing problem with paying for them, and that along several sectors the very fluid movement of the front has simply prevented them from being built. This has put numerous Russian troops outside of shelter, explaining the rapid increase in casualty figures recently. He warns of a lack of reinforcements in several key areas (other reports have reinforcements instead largely funnelled into Kursk and Zaporizhzhia) puts them at risk of sudden strategic reversals, possibly on a larger-than-expected scale. Girkin also claims that Ukrainian superiority in manpower along the front, previously believed to be slight (maybe 800,000 to 600,000, but that includes Ukrainian troops locking down the border with Belarus as well), may be greater in Ukraine's favour due to its recent successes in expanding recruitment. As usual, take with much salt.

The Russian victory parade will be less-attended than previously thought. Over a third of the invited world leaders have declined to attend, instead sending only minor dignitaries. Xi Jinping is there (he recently had tea with Putin in front of the media, possibly to his bemusement) and global statesman Fico, but Orban has cancelled. Azerbaijan, Iran, South Africa, Pakistan and India are all represented by ambassadors, defence ministers or lower-tier functionaries.

Multiple European countries denied Robert Fico permission to overfly their territory to reach Moscow, forcing him to take a very circuitous route. Vucic seems to have recovered enough to attend, though his plane has also experienced problems getting permission to access Russian airspace.

The US-Ukraine minerals deal is now fully ratified.

Attending luminaries at the memorial parade in Moscow were outshone by the sight of Steven Segal and Steven Segal's Artificial Hairline, a distinct entity with its own intelligence and style.

Hungary has vetoed Ukraine's EU accession bid. The EU will discuss the situation again and Hungary will apparently come on board, or the EU will take action to ensure Ukraine's accession without Hungary's approval.

The EU has pledged 2 million artillery shells to Ukraine this year, on top of the 1.25 million rounds pledged by individual member states.

Poland and France are signing a mutual defence pact today.

Estonia raised a banner on the wall of the museum in Narva, declaring "Putler" to be a war criminal. The banner is directly facing a Russian stage broadcasting the parade in Moscow across the border.

This post has been edited by Werthead: Yesterday, 04:33 PM

[Mentalist]

it would appear next week US and EU will give Putler an ultimatum to accept a ceasefire, or face a new round of serious sanctions- such as outright banning of all shadow fleet vessels, and sanctions against the remaining Muscovite banks.

We'll have to see if anything comes out of it.

EU pledging 1 billion derived from interest of frozen Muscovite assets to be put into UA MIC.

Orcs were panicking that UAF attempted to land on the L Bank of Dnipro again. Not seeing anything concrete on this though.

[Werthead]

Checking in on the Russian railways, which last year were in a bad state and, unsurprisingly, this year are in a worse state:

• The Russian rail service has cut all salaries by 50%. This makes the job uncompetitive with jobs in the military or military supply chain.
  
• Some parts of the rail service are down to around 40% of their intended staffing levels, including for safety.
  
• Despite this, the managers managed to award themselves 50 million rubles in bonuses. For some reason, morale is low.
  
• Despite this, there is a ban on all new hiring. Existing rail workers are still subject to recruitment for the front lines in Ukraine.
  
• The service has so far retired 100,000 freight cars due to a lack of spare parts or engineers to repair them, and cannibalised thousands more. They cannot construct new bogeys natively as theirs all come from Japan and Europe, which have cut off supplies. Attempts to set up a new production pipeline from China seem to have failed, for unclear reasons (possibly Chinese factories being easily outbid by European and American manufacturers).