[Macros]

Sufficient proof for fuck nuts that Putin can not be trusted?

[Garak]

Nah. Those people have bought the Russian narrative that they were forced into this by NATO.

[Cause]

If Trump is a Manchurian candidate nothing we can do.

If instead he is just a Dunning-Kruger Narcissist I wonder if Putin may play the wrong card. If it gets through to Trump that he looks weak or a fool I could see a situation where he goes for Putin very hard to save face.

I also sometimes wonder if Trump is just insanely afraid of Nukes from the occasional comments he makes?

Do we all believe that Canada, Uk, Russia and probably most countries have a team of Psychologists examining trump for clues?

[Macros]

Be better getting a toddler to do an analysis

[HoosierDaddy]

 Cause, on 19 March 2025 - 04:13 PM, said:

If Trump is a Manchurian candidate nothing we can do.

If instead he is just a Dunning-Kruger Narcissist I wonder if Putin may play the wrong card. If it gets through to Trump that he looks weak or a fool I could see a situation where he goes for Putin very hard to save face.

I also sometimes wonder if Trump is just insanely afraid of Nukes from the occasional comments he makes?

Do we all believe that Canada, Uk, Russia and probably most countries have a team of Psychologists examining trump for clues?

What makes Trump look best at this very moment in time is what he likes/will do is the only psychology needed.

[Mentalist]

Trump spoke to Ze, and Ze supposedly agreed to stop hitting energy targets.

Meanwhile, Crimean bridge is locked down due to missile threat.


I wonder if the orcs will stop launching their drones nightly. Once they do, UA will probably halt its own drone strikes, unless its like airbases and arsenals.

Germany seems to have approved 3 billion of assistance for UA.

Prisoner swap happened, 22 out of the 23 declared heavily wounded were also transferred over.

State Department deleted the database concerning thousands of abducted Ukrainian children.

This post has been edited by Mentalist: 19 March 2025 - 05:48 PM

[Werthead]

Ukrainian F-16s spotted over Sumy. Apparently they engaged incoming cruise missiles and some indications they launched ground attack missions across the border, a further indication that Russia is keeping air defence well back from the border. 

The Ukrainian 425th Assault Regiment has dfeated a Russian attack on Pishchane, Donetsk. The Russians, low on vehicles, attempted to infiltrate infantry into the settlement but were repulsed. The 79th Air Assault Brigade also repulsed an attack in the Novopavlivka area of the Zaporizhzhia front.

Ukraine destroyed the Russian Vysokoe oil pumping station, cutting a key oil transfer route on the Druzhba pipeline to Ust-Luga. The Kavkazskaya oil pumping station in Kuban was also hit and is ablaze.

Multiple attacks on Crimea, destroying Pantsir and S-300 air defence systems, several radar stations and a Mi-8 helicopter. Drones and Neptune missiles were involved. The Russians closed the Kerch Strait Bridge.

The Yaysky Refinery in Kemerovo Oblast is ablaze. Unconfirmed report of a drone strike. What would be remarkable about this is that Yaysky is more than 3,000 km from the Ukrainian border, and is relatively close to Mongolia. Ukraine confirmed just a few days ago that it had built a drone capable of travelling over 3,000km.

Western "military collectors" are paying top dollar for Russian battlefield kit, encouraging some Russian soldiers and officers to sell their gear at a huge profit on the black market. Some indications that some western countries might be officially backing such moves, to denude Russians on the front line of supplies.

175 Ukrainians freed from captivity today, some taken as long as ago as the fall of Mariupol.

The Serbian government resigned in full today. New elections are being scheduled, possibly for June, if a new government cannot be formed.

[Werthead]

Ukraine hit Engles Air Force Base in Saratov, home to some of Russia's strategic bombers, with three waves of drones. At least one absolutely massive explosion, suggesting they hit one of the main ammo stores on the base. Ukrainian military sources claim the goal was to eliminate a stockpile of Kh-101 cruise missiles. Russia has responded with a drone strike on Odesa.

The EU believes it can deliver another 2 million or so artillery shells from an undisclosed source (although if it turned out to be a mysterious nation in east Asia, I think that would not surprise anyone) in short order, and is looking to raise $5 billion quickly to achieve that. Italy and France are apparently arguing over how to finance that, but they'll probably resolve that quickly.

Norway is tripling its aid to Ukraine to over $8 billion, a remarkable amount for a relatively small (though inordinately wealthy) country.

$200 billion of Russian assets will remain in EU hands but the interest will go straight to Ukraine. The EU instead plans to use the assets as a peace incentive.

Ukraine has confirmed that all Ukrainian nuclear power plants will remain under Ukrainian ownership, but they are open to discussions with the US on modernisation, and maybe American oversight for the Zaporizhzhia power plant until it can be returned to full Ukrainian control.

Ukraine has destroyed the command centre for Russia's 20th Army with drones and missiles. This was located in Demidovka, Belgorod, and was allegedly the planning centre for Russia's offensives in the Sumy region. Ukrainian ground forces now confirmed across the border in Belgorod region, and Demidovka is under direct ground attack.

Poland has confirmed it will start mining its borders with Belarus and Russia's Kaliningrad Oblast.

Russian soldiers from the 503rrd Motorized Rifle Regiment are annoyed about being sent into combat without support, and have suggested "shooting the command and going home."

Congressman Brian Fitzpatrick, a Republican, has introduced a bill in the US Congress that would seek to block any formal recognition of occupied Ukrainian territory as Russian, including Crimea.

Putin has signed an order that all Ukrainians resident in "Russian territory" without having taken up the offer of a Russian passport, must leave Russian territory by 10 September 2025. Effectively this is a deportation order aimed at all Ukrainian civilians living in occupied territory who have turned down Russian citizenship (the overwhelming majority, by the sound of it).

Ukraine is experimenting with autonomous AA systems capable of shooting down Russian drones without human direction, and has already taken down ten Shaheds.

Apparently the EU has agreed to suspend Hungary's veto. The block will move forwards with decisions regardless of what Hungary says or does.

Ukrainian drones have apparently been upgraded to evade AA fire: recent Ukrainian drone attacks on Crimea have seen them successfully avoid Pantsir ground fire.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 22 March 2025 - 12:16 PM

[Mentalist]

About 75% of the Engels Airbase storage has been either destroyed or damaged. Rumours swirling about a Tu-95 getting hit as part of the impact (several crew members' obituaries have surfaced), as well as damage to an IL-76 transport plane that delivered the missiles there.

The Kavkazkaya fuel base had a third reservoir explode. The firefighters basically gave up trying to fight the blaze, they're in pure containment mode, letting it all burn out.

Apparently UAF continuing to probe in Belgorod Oblast' to force the orcs to shift forces from the Kursk axis further S to deflect this.


Videos from a big blaze in Voronezh. Could be another airbase, or could be a "grass fire". We'll have to wait and see.

[Garak]

So two American news papers (Trump aligned ones) are calling for the President to shut down the Kogalniceanu base and repeat JD Vance's talking points about how we didn't allow Calin Georgescu to run for President (because we suspect he's either a Russian puppet or a useful idiot). Elections are in May and so far it looks depressing for us. The strongest candidates so far look to be far right, sovereign rhetoric spouting nimrods or our usual corrupt numbskulls that are useless. While the Romanian president doesn't have executive powers, he is the one who handles foreign relations and can tank our alliances.

[Tiste Simeon]

Garak, on 23 March 2025 - 10:38 AM, said:

So two American news papers (Trump aligned ones) are calling for the President to shut down the Kogalniceanu base and repeat JD Vance's talking points about how we didn't allow Calin Georgescu to run for President (because we suspect he's either a Russian puppet or a useful idiot). Elections are in May and so far it looks depressing for us. The strongest candidates so far look to be far right, sovereign rhetoric spouting nimrods or our usual corrupt numbskulls that are useless. While the Romanian president doesn't have executive powers, he is the one who handles foreign relations and can tank our alliances.

Dang and you know Trump and co would love another pro-Putin bell end in power in Eastern Europe.

[Werthead]

Ukrainian forces continuing to attack in Belgorod Oblast, no major breakthroughs but they are putting Russian forces under pressure along the border. Glotovo, the command centre for Russian operations in the region, has been hit hard by air power and is under ground pressure, whilst Grafovka and Demidovka to the north are under Ukrainian control.

Ukraine has also launched a moderate offensive out of Kharkiv Oblast, taking the village of Nadiya in Luhansk Oblast with the 3rd Separate Assault Brigade and apparently advancing into the countryside nearby.

A scandal in Russia as two female workers attached to the 60th Brigade married two front-line soldiers, who were then killed under the cover of battle by a warrant officer. The warrant officer and the two workers then split the funeral money and compensation payments.

Russian AA cover over Toretsk appears to have vanished, allowing a marked increase in Ukrainian air strikes against Russian positions.

The US timeline for reaching a full deal on the end of the war is 20 April, which seems ambitious.

[Cause]

Werthead, on 23 March 2025 - 12:55 PM, said:

.

The US timeline for reaching a full deal on the end of the war is 20 April, which seems ambitious.

I guess technically every period of time is within a 24 hour window of time

[Werthead]

Interesting leaks to The Moscow Times from inside Russia (I suspect due to the recurringly amusing problem of people in Russia thinking TMT is a pro-Putin proper outlet just from the name). Apparently there is agreement in the Russian political and military circles that Russia's military capacity for this conflict is not infinite and militarily they do not believe they can advance much further than the Kramatorsk-Slovyansk area in north-western Donetsk Oblast (and taking those two areas will be brutal). However, Putin remains adamant that the four occupied oblasts must be taken in full, even if that means forcing the Dnipro in multiple locations to capture Kherson.

This has led to various strategies being proposed, including one to increase territory captured in Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts and swamp them for the remaining territories in Kherson, Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk Oblasts. However, they acknowledge they'd have to capture most of the oblasts for that to work, and they'd better just expend military force in those three oblasts in the first place (it sounds like Ukraine's attack into Luhansk Oblast had not happened when these discussions took place, which of course will complicate things further). It sounds like Putin has ruled out redesignating the borders of the oblasts, as he believes this will be seen as a defeat. Freezing the conflict along the front may become a compromise or default position, but Putin would be unhappy with that (far unhappier than he was with other frozen conflict lines) and it would require Russia to maintain large standing forces along the border, which would further strain the Russian economy. It sounds like there is some acceptance that a militarily strong, pro-Western, EU-membership Ukraine might emerge from the war, but they may accept that as long as there is no formal joining of NATO and Russia retains control of Crimea and the Donbas, that could be borne.

Russia is also banking a lot on restoring the Grain Deal as being a good bargaining chip, despite the fact that Ukrainian military control of the western Black Sea means that the Grain Corridor is no longer necessary.

Ukraine has secured the village of Popovka in Belgorod Oblast, further expanding the area of control on Russian territory. This is still pretty small stuff compared to the Kursk incursion last year, but still a headache for Russian forces.

Ukraine has recaptured Zabalka, Shcherbynivka and Leonidivka on the southern flank of the Toretsk salient, further isolating Russian forces in the area. They are now contesting Nelipivka, which would allow them to start outflanking Russian forces in eastern Toretsk from the north and south. I wonder if they're going to start looking at retaking Niu-York (not that one).

Ukraine apparently completely demolished the Russian gas transfer station in Sudzha in Kursk Oblast, leaving it needing to be rebuilt from scratch.

Russian body bag supplies have run so low that they are being reused once the bodies are disposed of.

General Aleksandr Lapin, commander-in-chief of the North Group of the Russian Ground Forces, may be missing in Belgorod Oblast. Apparently he was in an area attacked by Ukrainian drones and air power. If he is dead, he would be the highest-ranking Russian military official killed in the conflict so far. Lapin is believed to have been the one to have ordered the strike on the Kharkiv hypermarket in May 2024 that killed 19 civilians, and is high on Ukraine's Most Wanted list.

[Garak]

Oooh Russia is accusing us with working with terrorists and wanting to dismantle Russia. What fucking timeline is this?

I don't know if the page translates in English. https://hotnews.ro/r...rorista-1932688

[Werthead]

Kharkiv and Dnipro have both been hit by Shahed drones. It appears more got through than normal, and both cities have taken hits to civilian areas.

Ukraine confirms it has not hit any energy targets in Russia for over 48 hours, but Russia has continued targeting Ukrainian civilian areas.

The EU has stated it will not lift sanctions on Russia until Russia withdraws from all internationally-recognised Ukrainian territory.

Russia has launched a renewed infantry attack in the Pokrovsk area to relieve its troops in danger of encirclement. They used e-scooters to get to the front. These vehicles did not prove resilient against drones on the battlefield.

The UN has indicated it may be prepared to spearhead a peacekeeping mission in Ukraine, with troops from Asia and South America.

Ryanair has proposed reopening civilian flight routes to Lviv and Boryspil, near Kyiv. Ukraine has refused on the not-unreasonable grounds that missiles are flying through that airspace and Russia has form for shooting down airliners. Bloody stupid idea.

France has prepared a new €2 billion military aid package including missiles, air defences and APCs.

As expected the negotiations appear to be shambolic, mainly from the Russian side. Having agreed to a maritime ceasefire, Russia attached preconditions that had not been mentioned in the negotiations, or only in conjunction with a full peace agreement rather than the ceasefire.

According to Ukrainian sources, there have been more incidents of drone wreckage landing on Romanian territory than  previously reported, but Romania has been playing down these events to avoid having to shoot Russian drones down.

[Mentalist]

putler was visiting a Norther Fleet Sub. There he stated that he's expecting to beat the UAF, and would like to discuss with the global community outside governance of UA (under UN mandate) until we can have a "proper" election to get a "reasonable" government he can deal with.

These delusions seem to be making trumpy suspect something, as he mentioned in a White House press briefing that he has been informed the orcs are using Iranian drones. And apparently, he is "concerned" about that.

The intensity of assaults and orc reported casualties has been spiking; we are almost back to 2k/day. Most likely due to the fact that spring mud is starting to dry up.

Current buzz amongst trumpy's faithful is "if putler fails to acquiesce to an Easter truce, then he will feel the full brunt of sanctions!". Considering the US is scheduled to implode next week with its Liberation from money Tariff day, I have some doubts trumpy will still care about Europe in 2 weeks.

[Werthead]

The Czech Republic has said its artillery shell programme export programme to Ukraine is expected to at least match the 1.5 million shells they delivered in 2024, if not exceed it.

Continued heavy fighting around Pokrovsk, with Ukraine cementing control of Kotlyne and pushing south. It enjoys a lot of superiority in this area. The fighting around Shevchenko on Pokrovsk's southern front is also very intense, Russia may have stepped up attacks in this area. A T-80 tank was destroyed in this area.

Ukraine is counter-attacking the tiny Russian toe-hold in Sumy Oblast, and took 8 Russian soldiers prisoner.

Russia attempted a frontal assault on prepared positions of the 77th Airmobile Brigade. Apparently Russia spent 3 weeks preparing the the attack, but only had a few armored vehicles (less than two dozen) and 200 soldiers max to launch the attack. Ukrainian recon drones spotted the preparations and hit the forces as they moved out. None reached the front line, at least 60 KIA and 28 wounded, and 13 vehicles destroyed.

Russian losses have upticked to 1,860 in the last 36 hours or so, as Russian forces have gone on the offensive across the entire front. However, many Russian units have not received promised reinforcements and are going onto the attack extremely under-prepared. In some areas, they appear to be attacking prepared Ukrainian positions where the Ukrainians enjoy numerical superiority, with predictable results.

Russian forces have focused attention on Zaporizhzhia Oblast with a serious push that captured the settlement of Shcherbaky, but Ukrainian forces seemed to check them at Mali Shcherbaky immediately to the west and are counter-attacking.

Russia has blown up a Ukrainian ship...a wooden sailing ship, part of a vacation resort in Dnipro. Possibly they were confused or intimidated by this sign of Ukrainian naval superiority.

Interesting footage from a Ukrainian drone destroying a Russian Kasta 2E2 radar system (worth $60 million). Multiple Pantsir SAM systems surrounding the radar fired air defence missiles, but several missiles immediately upended and flew straight into the ground (in one case possibly damaging its own launcher). Unclear if this was a Russian malfunction or the drone itself was broadcasting EW that confused the missiles' guidance systems.

Current analysis is that between 96 and 100 air-launched cruise missiles were destroyed at Russia's Engels Airforce Base, probably mostly Kh-101s. If so, that's over half a billion dollars' worth of missiles up in smoke and possibly 2-3 months' worth of production. A very powerful hit.

Several analyses put Russian losses in 2025 alone at 100,000 killed, wounded, captured, missing or gone AWOL. Total casualties for the entire war are believed to be approaching 1 million for Russia alone.

Russia is crash-importing significant quantities of butter from Argentina, Uruguay and Iran. Russian butter prices have now exceeded the levels reached in the 2008 financial crisis.

Kadyrov has apparently been moving his assets out of Chechnya and Russia to new bolt-holes in the Middle-East. He has been negotiating with the UAE, Saudi Arabia and possibly Bahrain about creating safeholds for his money and riches. Several of Kadyrov's family members have apparently disappeared, resurfacing in places like Dubai. The Kremlin is reportedly unimpressed with these moves, as they signify a lack of confidence in Russia.

South Korea has released an analysis that of the original 11,000 North Korean troops sent to Ukraine, 4,000 have been killed or injured, though only two have been captured (one of whom is apparently willing to go to South Korea rather than home). Around 3,000 North Korean reinforcements have been sent, or are preparing to go.

Analysis of Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy infrastructure indicates almost $700 million in direct damage to machinery, installations and stroage tanks in under six months. Including the cost of repairs and the lost sales volume, the damage may approach $900 million.

Mentalist, on 28 March 2025 - 08:13 PM, said:

These delusions seem to be making trumpy suspect something, as he mentioned in a White House press briefing that he has been informed the orcs are using Iranian drones. And apparently, he is "concerned" about that.

Wait, Russia is using Iranian drones? <Friends_new_information.gif>

[Abyss]

Mentalist, on 28 March 2025 - 08:13 PM, said:

....Considering the US is scheduled to implode next week with its Liberation from money Tariff day, I have some doubts trumpy will still care about Europe in 2 weeks.

He'll care when he tries to tariff Europe and those countries fire back as Canada and China (scuze me i just threw up in my mouth a little) did.
...or he won't, i'm not actually sure he knows what happens when he does these things...

Werthead, on 28 March 2025 - 10:39 PM, said:

...

Mentalist, on 28 March 2025 - 08:13 PM, said:

These delusions seem to be making trumpy suspect something, as he mentioned in a White House press briefing that he has been informed the orcs are using Iranian drones. And apparently, he is "concerned" about that.

Wait, Russia is using Iranian drones? <Friends_new_information.gif>

"They're just toys that the North Koreans brought with them!"

[Lady Bliss]

I’m waiting to see the US crash and the militias turn on their leader because they can’t afford food or trucks anymore. On the other hand I see them all eating potatoes and squirrel for the cause.