[Mentalist]

Werthead, on 08 February 2025 - 10:54 PM, said:

Ukraine has recaptured Kotlyne and is attacking Pischane to the SW of Pokrovsk. There were on the western-most hook of the Russian attempt to encircle Pokrovsk.

Ukraine has reportedly fully captured Cherkasskaya Konopelka and Fanaseevka in Kursk Oblast and is fighting south of Makhnovka to confirm control of the Psel River. I agree, this is a tactical, opportunistic attack, but one that has delivered significant success to the Ukrainian military and inflicted heavy casualties on the Russian forces.

Zelensky has now confirmed that Ukraine carried out an attack on a Russian-North Korean command post in Kursk and apparently hit it with HIMARS during a high-ranking staff meeting. More than 20 of the highest-ranked Russian and North Korean officers in Kursk were present and all killed, with dozens more injured. This plunged the command structure into chaos. They were also exploiting confusion caused by the NK withdrawal from that front and Russian units had not fully worked out where they were supposed to be to replace them.

West of Nikolski, Kursk, Russian and North Korean troops launched a single massed attack on the SW edge of Ukrainian-held territory. The attack was very substantial, lasting 16 hours of continuous fire. However, the Russian and NK forces lacked armour, drone support or jammers. Ukrainian forces, drones and aviation engaged the Russian and NK forces and destroyed them with "extremely heavy" enemy casualties. The scale of the defeat is unclear, but both Russian and NK forces were using ordinary, unarmoured civilian vehicles to try to breach the Ukrainian lines. Most of these vehicles were destroyed hundreds of metres before they reached Ukrainian positions. This also confirms the return to action of NK troops on the front.

Russian media reporting that they have almost "run out of" NK troops but a "fresh batch" should arrive next month.

Ukraine has continued a moderate counter-offensive against Toretsk, launching a deep-penetration raid through the town (Russia captured most of the town some weeks ago) that threw Russian forces into confusion. Russia had misjudged the Ukrainian positions, so two Su-25s sent to support troops came under MANPAD fire; one of the Su-25s was shot down and the other forced to retreat. The Mi-8 helicopter sent to retrieve the pilot came under sustained fire and EW attack and was damaged before retreating, possibly leaving several crewmembers on the ground. The fate of the Su-25 pilot remains unclear.

A Russian armoured push on Vysnheve, on the Pokrovsk front, has been defeated by the 3rd Assault Brigade.

A Russian tank in Selydove was apparently "spooked" by a mistaken drone sighting, with the driver turning the tank around, driving over and crushing a civilian vehicle being driven by Russian troops with unconfirmed casualties, and haphazardly drove off (I've seen confused reporting that 200 Russians were killed, but though the transport situation remains critical, even the Russians can't fit 200 soldiers in a four-door car; "200" is a common Russian code-number for KIA). This was just after a large drone attack on the HQ of the Russian 35th Brigade, located nearby.

Lithuania, Estonia and Latvia have disconnected from the Russian power grid in favour of interconnects with the European grid via Poland and undersea power cables. The move leaves Kaliningrad able to be cut off from the Russian power grid with ease. In the even of war, the exclave could simply have its entire power supply shut off almost immediately.

Ukraine plans to increase its testing of laser AA systems on the front, believing that Shahed drones are particularly susceptible due to inferior armour.

Additional economic analysis: in recent months India and Turkey have decreased their purchase of Russian cole by almost 40%. China has decreased its import by 7% in raw amounts but 25% in terms of money. Currency reserves in Russian banks are at a 16-year low. $52 billion has been taken out of the Russian economy by those Russians fleeing abroad. Business has removed a further $44 billion. Production of fertilizer machinery in Russia has decreased by 61% in a year. Goldman Sachs has completed its full withdrawal from the Russian market, whilst ING (the largest Dutch bank) is close to completing the process. Turkish banks have completed the process of blocking third-party Turkish payment cards, which Russians had been stockpiling to get around sanctions. Russia has also been pushing the idea of a "BRICS currency" but has failed to convince the other countries of the value of doing so. Massive lay-offs are also underway in the coal industry in Kemerovo. Russia has also moved some 30% of its printing and publishing business to China, as the industry can no longer refresh old equipment due to sanctions.

do you have a source other than that Noel post re: Kotlyne?
b/c he's quoting a Z-head who says "UAF is trying to push us out of Kotlyne", but Noel translated that as "pushed out".

I'm also not sold on this being a major move to sever the salient SSW of Pokrovsk, because there were reports of counter-strikes towards Kotlyne (the tip of the salient) and Pischane (the right flank, pushing from Pokrovs'k outward), but nothing from the left flank, which is where it would be the most stretched. I mean, I saw plenty of clickbait thumbnails showing arrows from all 3 sides, but from what I've seen, I'm not sure we're seeing anything other than a local tactical counter.

[Werthead]

There were a few other OSINT channels but I think they were reposting what NOEL said. So I think that has to be pushed back into the unreliable column. NOEL is usually pretty good but occasional errors creep in. Urgh.

[Mentalist]

 Werthead, on 09 February 2025 - 09:32 PM, said:

There were a few other OSINT channels but I think they were reposting what NOEL said. So I think that has to be pushed back into the unreliable column. NOEL is usually pretty good but occasional errors creep in. Urgh.

The map he posted showed UAF regaining some territory around Kotlyne, but the road and railway remains cut by red zone. So I think the hype's premature.

[Werthead]

Pischane has been retaken now, from the look of it, but Kotlyne remains in Russian hands, though looking vulnerable.

Joe Wilson has proposed a Lend-Lease Act that would allow for rapid deployment of American resources to partner countries, including Ukraine.

Ukraine is now deploying heavier-payloaded American glide bombs and AASM missiles with heavier ground penetration capabilities. These are already seeing good results with some Russian command posts and storage depots previously deemed too heavily armoured to be hit now being destroyed along the front.

A 1.5km stretch of road between Pustynka to Hryhorivka near Selydove has been hit by Ukrainian drones, resulting in 36 destroyed vehicles (over which timeframe was not specified).

A Russian AA team has been reprimanded after painting one of their own drones in Ukrainian colours and then shooting it down to try to claim a reward.

Several Russian Telegram channels saying that the North Koreans offered little to no value on the Kursk front. They killed several Russian soldiers in friendly fire incidents, took up time from other Russian units in training, and territorial gains were minimal. Their gaining of experience was offset by high casualty rates.

The Afipsky refinery in Krasnodar has been hit by Ukrainian drones. This was an interesting attack because the refinery had recently been reinforced with Buk-M3 AA systems. They failed to prevent the strike and there are some reports they didn't engage.

Trump claims to have spoken to Putin, but Russian sources have not confirmed this. They have said that informal dialogue with the American side has not yet yielded any worthwhile proposals. Trump has indicated that China could play a role in negotiations, though China is unlikely to jump at the opportunity, as it will only want to get involved if a deal is doable and if it can walk off with the credit.

Transnistria has turned down €60 million in EU financial aid to get it through its energy crisis. The deal was that Transnistria would receive gas supplies from a Hungarian company via connectors across Moldovan territory. However, Russia has instructed Tiraspol to turn down the deal, fearing it would bring Transnistria closer to Moldova and thus the EU.

Russia has floated the idea of a "Eurasian Trading Bloc" which would link Russia, Kazakhstan, Belarus, Armenia and Kyrgyzstan to start with, and possibly later expand to include Azerbaijan, Georgia, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan. As far as can be told, nobody is interested: Kazakhstan is annoyed with Russian Duma reps constantly threatening it, Armenia is annoyed over Russia refusing to aid it as promised in its conflict with Azerbaijan, Azerbaijan is annoyed about its plane being shot down, Kyrgyzstan is annoyed about Russia refusing to aid it as promised in its conflict with Tajikistan, and Tajikistan and Uzbekistan seem to be leaning more towards deals with China.

[Mentalist]

Saratov Refinery hit. The hydrocracking unit that was targetted was installed in the 70s, so it might take a while to replace.

The situation with the Afipsky Refinery is even more hilarious, b/c it's right next door to a home base of anti-air brigade. Those Buks are stationed there permanently, and they didn't even detect the drones.

Orcs are warning that "Ukrainian saboteurs are going to carry out a provocation in the Baltic Sea to cause NATO to close the Baltic". Erm, how?

82nd Airborne seems to have made some gains on the northern edge of the Kursk frontline, keeping the enemy vigilant. Also reports that border checkpoints in both Bryansk and Belgorod Oblasts got droned.

Munich Security Conference is coming up, and apparently one of the subjects of the talks is "formalizing how to dispatch western peacekeepers into UA". Call me a skeptic on that one.
Mixed signals coming from Washington, as Trump's got both pro-UA and pro-Moscow voices offering strategy. The uncertainty continues.

[Werthead]

Ukraine has carried out an informal census to find out the exact demographic situation. They confirm that Ukraine's population was 42 million in 2015 and was between 42 and 44 million on the eve of the Russian invasion. The invasion caused massive internal displacement and a diaspora overseas, but since the Russian high point of the conflict in summer 2022, the exodus halted and has slowly reversed, with more and more Ukrainians returning home. The current population resident in Ukraine appears to be around 32 million, which may be as many as 8 million more than recently estimated. This includes all Ukrainian citizens (including those in Russian-occupied territory) but not Russian transplants or troops. As many as 10 million Ukrainians are now abroad. They also state that the total Ukrainian nation entitled to citizenship numbers 60 million worldwide, including the wider diaspora and their descendants since the fall of the Soviet Union.

US Treasury Secretary Bessent will visit Kyiv this week, apparently to discuss American access to Ukraine's uranium, titanium and lithium. A deal worth $500 billion could be in the offing.

Russian milbloggers confirming that Pischane has been retaken and Kotlyne at the tip of the flank has been attacked (some alleged video showing Ukrainian forces inside Kotlyne destroying Russian mechanised reinforcements). Russian forces managed to hold, but with Pischane on their flank now taken, their position may become untenable. Ukraine has moved in significant reinforcements.

Russian forces mounted an impressive naval RBU-6000 Smerch-2 rocket launcher on a Ural truck as a makeshift artillery piece near Lyman, but it was destroyed by the Ukrainian 63rd Brigade.

Trump's special emissary Steve Witkoff has reportedly landed in Moscow, and is reported to have joined the American Ambassador to Moscow in a visit to the Russian Foreign Ministry. The result is the release of US prisoner Marc Fogel, who has been detained in Russia since 2021.

The White House has said it is amenable to the proposal for European nations to buy weapons for Ukraine from the United States, with potentially less restrictions on certain systems.

Syrian forces have again closed Tartus Naval Base. Russia was accumulating more equipment there for collection, but the Syrian government chose to seal it off. Some reports they are requesting Bashar al-Assad's extradition first.

Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant could be in trouble again. A Russian shell reportedly blew up one of the two powerful lines connecting the station to the wider grid, threatening the electricity supply into the station needed to keep vital systems functioning.

The Russian oil tanker Koala has sank in the Russian port of Ust-Luga. It's unclear how, but some Russian sources are suggesting it was destroyed by a mine attached to the hull by unknown persons.

Germany claims it is now producing more artillery shells per year than the United States.

In Almaty, Kazakhstan, the organisers refused to play the Russian national anthem for fighter Mukhamed Kalmykov. Instead, the announcer announced the anthem and then dead silence followed. When the Kazakhstani fighter entered the ring, the Kazakhstani anthem was played loudly. On the same day, several Azerbaijani businesses with names mentioning Russia or Moscow removed those references from their logos and signage, prompting outrage in the Russain Duma.

For the first time, footage has emerged showing a Ukrainian F-16 operating near the front equipped with multiple glide bombs and long-range AMRAAMs. So far the F-16s have primarily been used for air defence, but this would mark an interesting swing to targeting ground forces.

[Cause]

10 million people left Ukraine, and it was suspected it might have been closer to 18 million? How does a country/economy survive that. A quarter of the population left?

Crazy.

[Werthead]

Trump and Putin have now confirmed a 90-minute telephone call focused on ending the war. Details were not discussed, but the two leaders have indicated personal visits could be in the offing. Trump immediately called Zelensky and had a conversation with him lasting over an hour. Zelensky indicated the discussion was positive. He also stressed the potential value of a Ukrainian rare earth minerals deal with the US.

Trump's readout of his call with Putin was somewhat unhinged, referencing the "millions" who have died in the war in Ukraine (deaths are in the hundreds of thousands for both sides, and overall casualties have topped a million, but a million deaths seems to still be a way off). Simultaneous discussions from the US Defence Secretary suggested that Ukraine regaining its pre-2014 borders was "unrealistic," but a positive outcome for Ukraine was desirable. He also suggested that the US would veto Ukrainian membership of NATO and any peacekeeping mission involving European troops would not be protected under Article 5.

The UK has constructed a "pop-up" system using a vehicle that resembles a standard container lorry. The container pops open and a weapons system can deploy. At the moment they've tested it with an anti-air missile system but theoretically could expand it to small to medium calibre artillery guns and drone launching systems.

NATO combat exercises over the Baltic and Sweden. 2 USAF B-52s joined 3 Swedish Gripens, 2 French Rafales, 2 Finnish F/A-18s and a French tanker simulated an air combat mission over Swedish territory.

Azerbaijan-Russian relations are continuing to deteriorate with startling speed. A Russian MP has been sanctioned by Azerbaijan after calling the country "a gang of lowlifes."

 Cause, on 12 February 2025 - 02:21 AM, said:

10 million people left Ukraine, and it was suspected it might have been closer to 18 million? How does a country/economy survive that. A quarter of the population left?

Crazy.

A war economy can do crazy things and keep a country afloat with incredible resilience. The fact that Ukraine has more people than previously thought explains quite a few things.

The return of many of the departed could also boom the economy again by adding millions more to the workforce when needed for reconstruction. That depends on how many will want to return, especially if many areas in the east remain indefinitely under Russian control.

[Mentalist]

The country will be on the upswing, as long as the war ends with solid security guarantees that the orcs won't try again.

In the absence of such guarantees, 2 things will happen

1) there will be no foreign investment, due to elevated risks
2) loads of people will look for way to emigrate as soon as the borders are open, b/c there will be a general understanding that Part II is inevitable and most won't want to get caught in it.

[Chance]

Werthead, on 12 February 2025 - 07:50 PM, said:

Cause, on 12 February 2025 - 02:21 AM, said:

10 million people left Ukraine, and it was suspected it might have been closer to 18 million? How does a country/economy survive that. A quarter of the population left?

Crazy.

A war economy can do crazy things and keep a country afloat with incredible resilience. The fact that Ukraine has more people than previously thought explains quite a few things.

The return of many of the departed could also boom the economy again by adding millions more to the workforce when needed for reconstruction. That depends on how many will want to return, especially if many areas in the east remain indefinitely under Russian control.

Isn't the EU also practically paying for most of the state budget that isn't war related so basically Ukraine economy works by rather efficient aid from the west. Which I'm all for its basically marginal on the EU budget and probably among the most sensible stuff the EU uses its budget for.

But the situation is probably even worse in Russia, crazy inflation, lack of workforce, tax base being eroded due to being based on petrochemical sales (not least due to the remarkably successful drone strikes from Ukraine). The recent pictures of donkeys as transport vehicles and camels riding soldiers are quite interesting, we thought ww2 vehicles where bad but they are going pre-industrial over there.

This post has been edited by Chance: 13 February 2025 - 12:59 PM

[Garak]

Most people around here see Russia as ... Well as the Russian propaganda depicts it. Strong and unstoppable.

[Chance]

Garak, on 13 February 2025 - 12:49 PM, said:

Most people around here see Russia as ... Well as the Russian propaganda depicts it. Strong and unstoppable.

Show them pictures of russian soldiers saying hi to their new transport vehicle the mighty private donkey or doing assaults in lada trucks

Not saying they might not win due to callous disregard for life and being ready to go further than Ukraine but they are certainly not strong and unstoppable, ukraine basically showed that in the first three months of the war.

This post has been edited by Chance: 13 February 2025 - 12:57 PM

[Mentalist]

Chance, on 13 February 2025 - 12:51 PM, said:

Garak, on 13 February 2025 - 12:49 PM, said:

Most people around here see Russia as ... Well as the Russian propaganda depicts it. Strong and unstoppable.

Show them pictures of russian soldiers saying hi to their new transport vehicle the mighty private donkey or doing assaults in lada trucks

Not saying they might not win due to callous disregard for life and being ready to go further than Ukraine but they are certainly not strong and unstoppable, ukraine basically showed that in the first three months of the war.

Don't forget the regiments sending people to assault on literal crutches.

The problem is, that actually plays against the public perception in "old Europe", b/c that makes them seem as a very distant and insignificant threat that "can't possibly ever be a threat to US". Nevermind what might happen to the smaller states bordering Muscovy, since "they aren't the REAL EUROPE ™ anyway". Add to this both ultra right (because "Putler is a strongman that defends traditional values") and the ultra-left (because "Muscovy has been mistreated by American imperialists and it is the only one willing to stand up to the capitalist scum" )actively spreading the "both sides" narrative, trying to make everyone believe it was Ukraine that was "unreasonable" and it's Zelensky's fault that Putler "had no choice but to invade".

[Abyss]

Chance, on 13 February 2025 - 12:42 PM, said:

... camels riding soldiers are quite interesting,...

wrong forum dude WRONG FORUM SO SO WRONG

[Garak]

Our far right and one of the presidential candidates have taken up the Russian talking point of dividing Ukraine. Our particular asshats want Bucovina back. Honestly I hate this entire "we should get that bit back because it belonged to us at some point in the past" thing. My response to this is usually to go "Ok then, in that case let's ask Mongolia to reign in their Russian vassals."

[Tiste Simeon]

Garak, on 13 February 2025 - 07:35 PM, said:

Our far right and one of the presidential candidates have taken up the Russian talking point of dividing Ukraine. Our particular asshats want Bucovina back. Honestly I hate this entire "we should get that bit back because it belonged to us at some point in the past" thing. My response to this is usually to go "Ok then, in that case let's ask Mongolia to reign in their Russian vassals."

Imagine if the British tried that!

[Garak]

[Mentalist]

Garak, on 13 February 2025 - 07:35 PM, said:

Our far right and one of the presidential candidates have taken up the Russian talking point of dividing Ukraine. Our particular asshats want Bucovina back. Honestly I hate this entire "we should get that bit back because it belonged to us at some point in the past" thing. My response to this is usually to go "Ok then, in that case let's ask Mongolia to reign in their Russian vassals."

Good luck trying to convince the 82nd Airborne Assault Brigade, and 2/3s of the 10th Mountain Brigade of the UAF that Chernivtsi is Romania.

I would love to see him try.

The ultra-right Putler cronies in our Western neighbours seem unable to grasp the point that the more of the nominally "russian" South and East Putler grabs, the more overall radically nationalist the rump state will become. And you will NOT want to mess them. Orban can posture all he likes in his Greater Hungary shirt showing off Transcarpathia as part of his wet dream state, but the reality is, if he was to try anything his own army would get steamrolled.

[Macros]

Regards the donkeys thing
Late stage WW2 Germany was delivering fuel to the front on horse drawn wagons in places to save fuel

[Chance]

Macros, on 14 February 2025 - 04:53 AM, said:

Regards the donkeys thing
Late stage WW2 Germany was delivering fuel to the front on horse drawn wagons in places to save fuel

For most of the war horses where more important for the german infantry than the trucks which they never had enough of and never enough fuel for.

But I hazard the russians aren't prepared for draft animals, trained for it and have the logistics for it. It is a sign of not having fuel, transport vehicles and not the anti air/drone capacity to make fuel and vehicles survive up to the front.

And yeah the crutch brigades are bad enough that I hope they are videos taken out of context, but its not like we need more proof of the russian leaderships complete inhumanity.

This post has been edited by Chance: 14 February 2025 - 12:28 PM