[Mentalist]

If the crutch assaults were "taken out of context", there wouldn't be new videos popping up every few days. Orc commanders neeed to report to higher ups that they are "active" and demonstrate progress. The stream of people that sign up for high payouts is gradually drying up, and they don't want to send wounded soldires back to get treatment, because they know they'll do their best not to come back. And unlike burned equipment, which requires a metric ton of explanatory paperwork, personnel losses are basically meaningless, b/c everyone is still under the impression that their manpower pool is endless, and they can win via zerg rush in the end.


https://bsky.app/pro...t/3li4zprssrs2l

It feels like they've devalued human lives beyond even what the Soviets did.

[Werthead]

Trying to unravel Vance's word salad approach of the last few days is difficult, as he seemed to be grandstanding for a US audience (possibly to remind them he exists, with Trump and Musk hogging all the headlines).

Still, he urged European nations to spend more money, far more quickly, on their own defence. This is a good thing. The softly-softly approach of countries like the UK is not cutting it, and we will need to ramp up defence spending to at least 2.5% and then 3% in the next few years, not the next decade, and both the Tories' and now Labour's squirming on that is going to have to come to an end. 5% is impractical for most countries (though Poland might aim for it) but if every nation spent 2.5% that would be a formidable European military machine, more than capable of deterring Russia. Obviously there will be political trade-offs for that.

Vance didn't actually say much about the Ukraine war in his own speech, but in previous remarks he said that the United States was prepared to use both economic levers and even unspecified "military action" to get Putin to the negotiating table, which is good. He said that Ukraine was unlikely to return to 2014 borders or recover occupied territories, which is bad but nothing new (and possibly just an acknowledgement of the short-term practicalities).

Meanwhile, Trump has been pushing for US-Russian-Ukrainian talks in Munich, but the Russians have not sent a delegation, were not invited, probably couldn't get visas (at least on short notice), and didn't want to go anyway, leaving a rare moment of Russian-Ukrainian harmony as they both said they didn't know WTF Trump was going on about.

Very interesting move today: Zelensky indicated he is talking to the European Union about resource extraction in Ukraine as well as the United States, and the EU might more desperately need them if it finds itself in a more antagonistic relationship with the United States and China at the same time. This is mirroring some ideas being floated elsewhere about a peace deal allowing Ukraine to join the EU but not NATO, and a reinforced EU mutual defence treaty, possibly widened to include the UK, being confirmed.

[Werthead]

The Russians decided it would be a splendid idea to bomb the outer protective shield around the Chornobyl Nuclear Power Plant. A Shahed-136 exploded on impact, penetrating the shield. Fortunately the sarcophagus inside is still intact in that area, preventing a radiation release. Ukrainian engineers are moving to patch the impact. Exactly why the Russians targeted it is unclear.

The Ukrainian 25th Sicheslav Airborne Brigade used a drone equipped with a loudspeaker to arrange the surrender of 9 Russian soldiers. One of the Russians had only been at the front for two weeks, but had decided to surrender after seeing so many dead bodies of fellow Russians, which nobody had bothered to clear up.

Ukraine has hit the Slavyansk-on Kuban refinery with drones, causing a substantial fire. The full scale of the damage remains unclear.

A Russian Geran-2 drone overflew targets in Ukraine and landed in Moldova, where it was shown to the Russian envoy, who would not confirm it was a Russian drone.

China is already embarking on a charm offensive against Europe. This process started a few months back with Macron and Xi having constructive discussions (which some feared included Macron confirming France would not interfere if China was to blockade Taiwan) and seems to be continuing now. China seems to be positioning itself as a sane(er) and (more) reasonable partner versus a Trump-led United States, which shows every sign of being a random mess for the next four years.

Trump and Modi seem to be building an impressive US-India strategic alliance, including sales of American weapons systems, oil, gas, semiconductors, processors for AI development and exchanges of strategic minerals. The goal is to provide India with an enhanced capacity to grow its economy to act as a counterbalance to China (whose population it has already overtaken), and to provide it with enough weapons to act as a deterrent to warfare. However, as fellow members of BRICS it is questionable if the US will be able to draw India into an actual military alliance, with India engaging Chinese forces if they were to move against US assets or allies in the Indo-Pacific theatre.

In not-unrelated news, Russian oil companies are facing production cuts as they are unable to sell millions of barrels of oil. They are sitting on 17 million barrels in storage or on ships that they can't offload: either other countries can undercut them, or Russia's supposed friends are demanding such further price cuts that it would make them unprofitable. Oil exports from Primorsk, Ust-Luga and Novorossisk were down 17% year on year, whislt the cost to transport cargo from Kozmino on the Pacific to China down the coast has increased fivefold. At current production rates, Russia will have 50 million barrels in storage by July. Storage depots have also been destroyed in such numbers that Russia now has limited storage capacity for this oil beyond ships and terminals, which are already almost full.

Germany may declare a state of emergency regarding the war in Ukraine. This is actually something of a technical step that would allow funding for Ukraine to be sourced and allocated differently, and could lead to a big uptick in financial aid without it impacting other German programmes.

According to Scott Bessent, the US and Ukraine are developing an economic plan to tie their economies based on Ukraine's strategic minerals, energy and state enterprises, including defence. It's unclear how this squares with everything else (Bessent, Vance, Musk, Trump and Hegseth all seem to be singing from somewhat different hymn sheets). Zelensky has said this plan may include the provision of further air defences to Ukraine. He has also suggested that if Ukraine cannot join NATO and does not have a binding mutual defence treaty elsewhere, Ukraine may simply have to maintain a massive standing army of around 1.5 million for the foreseeable future. Selling its rare earth minerals to the USA for trillions of dollars would pay for this, its arming, plus reconstruction costs. Rubio and Bessent seem to be somewhat on board with this.

[Mentalist]

Most people back home are okay with allowing Western investors to take over a lot of the mineral rights, b/c the expectation is, they will then force the government in Kyiv to develop and maintain a consistent and predictable legal framework, that will in turn allow Ukrianian businesses to operate without worrying about needing to please every local police chief, tax inspector, SBU colonel, etc The whole reason for European aspirations in Ukraine is this naïve and endearing belief that at least then someone will be able to hold these politicians accountable. I have very conflicting thoughts about this.

As it stands RN, apparently the Americans wanted Zelensky to just sign over a 50% stake in all of UA's mineral wealth, and he "politely refused" to do so, until there are some specific and defined guarantees on the table. We'll have to see how all of this continues to play out.

Trump and Putler are going to be meeting in Saudi Arabia. Putler really wants to get Trump to commit to showing up in Moscow for Victory Day on May 9th; It'll be interesting to see if he buys it.

[Werthead]

The Russians have apparently been trying to rebuild the Antonivskyi Bridge, or at least float pontoons across the gaps in it. "Trying" is the operative word as they have been continuously zeroed by Ukrainian drones. The entire Russian operation in Kherson is beyond any sane understanding, they're simply being mown down by the dozen whilst trying to cross one of the biggest rivers in Europe near its mouth with the enemy having total fire control over the area.

Russia has restarted attacks along the Kurakhove front. They have taken part of the village of Zelenivka, with Ukrainian forces either dislodged entirely or pushed to the edge of the village.

Russian sources reporting a call between Lavrov and Rubio took place today, but US sources have not confirmed it. It is believed to be discussing the potential for talks in Saudi Arabia next week. Ukraine says they have not heard anything about it.

European leaders are meeting for an unusual summit in Paris on Monday, to formulate a common position on US policy. Multiple leaders seem keen on taking a much firmer line against American unilateralism, though others are trying to meet Trump in the middle; Starmer may travel to Washington DC this week.

Ukrainian and Chinese officials have met to discuss economic cooperation and the possibility of wider European-Chinese discussions, with the suggestion of a separate diplomatic track handled by China, with Ukraine's full involvement. China is sensing the possibility of establishing a reproachment with European countries unhappy with the Trump administration, and don't seem too bothered about dropping (the much poorer and less useful) Russia as an ally if that could become a realistic prospect. China has even signalled it will stop importing Russian energy sources if European countries can replace it in the quantities they need at a reasonable price (which unfortunately is unlikely, but still, interesting). Lithuanian observers have suggested that Ukraine could offer China access to Ukrainian coal, ports and rare Earth minerals in return for China leveraging Russia to a deal more favourable to Ukraine than one the United States could negotiate. This would be a "reverse Nixon" with China driving a wedge between the United States and Europe rather than vice versa.

The Ukraine-US rare metals deal is on hold. The US wanted control of 50% of Ukraine's rare metal exports for an unspecified period of time for a bargain price, Ukraine considered this too generous. Possible subtext that they want to make sure they are fully included in any Moscow-Washington discussions before signing any deal.

The Pokrovsk front is becoming more difficult for Russia. Reinforcements seem to have dried up, and Russia may have transferred its attention elsewhere for a renewed effort (possibly this reinforced Kurakhove offensive). Russian troops on Telegram complaining of total Ukrainian air and drone superiority, and localised artillery superiority. Their rear lines keep being cut by drone-dropped mines requiring constant mine-sweeping (with attendant personnel and equipment losses), and Ukrainian forces have made recent, though limited, gains along the front. Despite this, their commanders are still forcing them to attack, with over 250 combat missions launched against Ukrainian positions in the last two days, most of them repelled or unsuccessful.

Germany's new chancellor candidate has indicated that he will provide Taurus missiles to Ukraine.

The Volgograd refinery has been attacked again by drones. Only a couple of drones made it through, with Russia's AA and EW responding better than last time. Still, part of the refinery is burning.

[Werthead]

The Russians sent an armoured column into action near Nikolskoye, Kursk. The column advanced along a mined road under attack from Ukrainian drones. What was more insane is that the tanks were ordered to fly red flags, possibly for filming purposes, over the objections of the Russian troops and even some of their officers.

The column was subsequently devastated by Ukrainian fire and mines, and forced to retreat.

Putin is apparently hoping to get both Xi and Trump to attend the 80th anniversary Victory Parade in Moscow in May.

[Mentalist]

Coincidentally with the videos of the 155th Marines column being demolished with their red flags, the orcs are whining that the North Koreans had to withdraw from the partially occupied hamlet of Nikol'ske "due to not receiving reinforcements from the 155th".

UAF HQ officially announced liberation of Pischane S of Pokrovs'k. Most likely this means the counter-strikes on the southern pincer are ongoing. I'm still not seeing reports about any hits on the pincer from the South, so I'm not going to hype that it's likely to be cut just yet. The orcs also stepped up the intensity of their assaults on Pokrovs'k yesterday, seemingly to spite all the analysts trying to say that the orc attack tempo has been steadily decreasing, suggesting they are winding down; they are trying HARD to push the UAF out from what's left of the Kurakhove bulge (to the line Andriyivka-Zelenivka), as that would free up more troops to toss at Pokrovs'k.

The bridgehead W of the Oskil to the n of Kup'yans'k continues to expand gradually. The Territorial Defence troops here are under-equipped to push the enemy back across the river, and we'll have to see whether the UAF HQ will bring in more experienced troops to address the situation.

My personal takeaway from Munich is that Zelensky and co should be drafting a mineral concession agreement for a joint Euro-Chinese consortium. That would be a much stronger security guarantee that anythign coming from Trump's USA.

At the same time, domestically, Zelensky and co seem to be gearing up for the inevitability of elections, as they are putting additional pressure on Poroshenko and other businessmen who still control non-state-aligned media (primarily large YT TV channels, such as Espresso). This is.. concerning to say the least, since for all its faults, the oligarchic neo-feudalism that characterizes Ukraine since Kuchma's times did wonders for fostering appreciation for political pluralism, and allowing Zelensky to keep around only the channels that support him is pretty antithetical to... basically everything.

UA won't be talking to Moscow in KSA. Zelensky wants to have a clear outline of a peace plan that the US in on board with before speaking to Putler directly. Meanwhile, Trump wants a ceasefire by Easter.
The big thing in the near future is going to be just how much Europeans commit to stepping in to fill the America-shaped gap.

[Werthead]

The Kropotkinskaya refinery has been attacked by Ukrainian drones. Ukraine also launched possibly its second or third-biggest drone strike of the war, hitting multiple targets across Krasnodar Krai Oblast, including the refineries there.

There seems to be confusion over whether Greece is sending 32 decommissioned F-16s to Ukraine.

The Lyman front has gotten active again, with multiple Russian armoured thrusts defeated by Ukrainian defences. A 2S1 howitzer has claimed a direct hit on a moving Russian BMP from 10km away through a blizzard (drone footage appears to verify).

Sweden, the UK and France seem to be leading the way with pledges of troops for a Ukrainian peacekeeping mission.

Having secured the Chornobyl shelter, Ukrainian engineers discovered three "smoulder points" which could develop into fires. These would destroy the insulation of the reactor cover and pose a significant risk of degrading the shelter overall. They are working to stop the problem before it escalates.

[Werthead]

Germany seems to have been dragged kicking and screaming to the position of increasing defence spending from 1.5% to 2% of GDP, but this position had previously been suggested. Scholz seemed to get very annoyed in a meeting with Starmer and Macron (among others), pointing out that Germany's contributions to Ukraine had been greater than any other country's bar the United States, even though the military readiness and equipment of the Bundeswehr remains highly questionable. The UK has been criticised for allowing the army to atrophy to the point where it is unclear if it can support even a 10,000-strong peacekeeping force in Ukraine with three-month rotations (as opposed to putting over 30,000 troops on the ground at once in Iraq, which we simply could not do right now). The UK is continuing to focus on air and naval power, which is understandable, and looks likely to commit to a 2.5% GDP with a set timespan (as opposed to a nebulous "whenever" position, as is current). Military chiefs and experts want us to now commit to 3% by 2030 as a baseline, but the treasury seems to be screaming bloody murder about that idea.

An ambitious-sounding plan for the European Union and its allies to commit to the spending of $732 billion in military, economic and reconstruction aid to Ukraine is being floated. The timeframe for this is unknown but even if it was over 10 years, it would still be an enormous amount of money. If Europe was able to buy American munitions, as the US has said they would allow, then this pretty much eliminates any problems caused by American official support drying up instantly.

China has said it believes Ukraine and Europe should be involved with negotiations and it would consider any serious proposal to send Chinese troops to act as peacekeepers in Ukraine under a UN charter. It has suggested non-NATO countries could provide such troops to avoid Russian concerns over "Ukraine in NATO under a different name." However, China has voiced position recently that clash with Russian positions, suggesting that China would at least gently edge - if not throw - Russia under the bus if it meant securing better deals with Europe and minimising Chinese exposure to American economic moves. Türkiye is hosting Zelensky at the moment, Erdogan apparently keen to get in on the action after feeling sidelined in recent months.

The 4-hour US-Russia summit in Saudi Arabia has ended with both sides making positive noises. Ukraine and Europe are concerned over being excluded. The only firm proposal that seems to have leaked is that Russia will "allow" Ukraine to join the European Union but will not accept it in NATO, but since this is a proposal they suggested back in 2022, it's hardly new. What is new is a Russian request that NATO formally revoke its 2008 Bucharest Summit declaration on Ukraine and Georgia having a path to NATO membership.

The Kropotkinskaya oil pumping station has been heavily damaged. Replacing it and getting it working again will take over two months. However, Transneft believes it might be able to work at 70% capacity during the repairs (which seems optimistic). Andriapol oil pumping station and the Ilsky refinery have also been hit by Ukrainian forces.

A Russian armored push in the Kupyansk sector was defeated by the 429th Achilles Regiment using drones. One Russian APC was destroyed and three more damaged.

Ukraine aims to produce 4 million drones a year, improving on the 1.5 million drones produced in 2024.

The US backed down on a hardline ultimatum Ukraine: sign the mineral deal or no meeting with Vance. Zelensky refused to sign under pressure, the hardline stance vanished and talks with Vance proceeded.

The Russian oil tanker Seajewel carrying Russian oil has been crippled by an explosion, near the Italian city of Savona. The cause is unknown. 

This post has been edited by Werthead: 18 February 2025 - 02:11 PM

[champ]

Thanks as always for the continued updates.

[Mentalist]

Fox News started "leaking" the preliminary steps of the US-Muscovite "peace plan"

1. Ceasefire
2. Elections in Ukraine
3. "Permanent peace agreement"

They've already started backtracking on this, though. Initially they've said that Trump would be happy if Putler could get a pro-orc puppet elected; then they appear to have checked the latest polls where Ukrainians would overwhelmingly support Zaluzhny as the next president and realized they're rushing things a bit.

Elections remain suspended in Ukraine as long as War Measures are in effect. I don't expect that to be repealed until Putler starts sending his mobiks home and pulls the army back from the frontline. Until that happens, Kyiv won't be able to justify its own demobilization. So i'm really not sure what those people in Riyadh were smoking.

[Cause]

Trump is fascinating. It’s actually impossible to say if he is compromised by Russia, demented, incompetent or all of the above.

He seems to not be sure or sees benefits in pretending he’s sure who started the war. Suggesting Ukraine needs elections is so disgusting.

[Mentalist]

Oh, God. Now he's gonna boost Zelensky domestically, since there's nothing Ukrainians love more than to be contrarian and to spite anyone that presumes to tell them what they should be thinking.

Anyone that Putler tries to put up as a "reasonable" alternative is going to get egged, potentially stoned. Maybe worse, because there'
It's a choice between Zelensky, and someone even MORE militarized and radical. Like the founder of "Azov". Or (more likely, since he's currently the leader in national polls) Zaluzhny.
Again, though. Without inflicting a significant defeat on the UAF it'll be very difficult to sway public opinion to capitulate.

[Werthead]

Possibly one of Perun's best videos, going deep on the data to give us much clearer views on Russian recruitment, retainment and losses.

This is worse (for the Russians) than expected. Russian outflow rates from the armed forces in 2022-25 are, from Russia's own figures, running from 550,000 to 913,000, with the median figure of around 730,000. As it is illegal to leave the Russian military at the moment for reasons other than very severe injuries, being taken prisoner, or death, this would put the total Russian casualties for the war in that bracket. Some Ukrainian sources had been touting these figures but western sources had been considerably more conservative. But the Russian figures themselves are saying that this number has effectively upped and gone missing from their military.

The dead figures for the Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics alone are utterly horrifying. As a percentage of the population, they're pretty insane.

The total number of Russian casualties, despite differing methodologies, ends up in a surprisingly similar place between western sources, Russian sources, recruitment inferences, battlefield footage and Ukrainian estimates: 790,000 to 856,000, with that one Russian source allowing for 913,000. KIA is harder to estimate but all the sources seem to agree that we passed the 200,000 milestone some considerable time ago (the BBC outlier of 96,000 is due to them only tracking confirmed obituaries, and noting that many Russian KIAs wouldn't have obituaries, especially DPR, LPR, NK, Wagner and prisoner numbers) and they may be approaching or have passed 300,000.

[Tiste Simeon]

Doesn't matter now they've got America on their side. America claiming that Ukraine shouldn't have started it.

[HoosierDaddy]

In America the doublespeak has truly started:

A special military operation in Ukraine actually means Retaliatory Justice for Unprovoked Invasion of Mother Russia.

[Mentalist]

It's remarkable how all of Ze's detractors and political rivals are lining up to tell Trump to go fuck himself with his wartime election suggestion. Poroshenko, Tymoshenko and Zaluzhny are all saying it's impractical and immoral to hold elections before the war is over. And most of ardent Ze-detractors are currently saying, "sure he's an incompetent SOB, but who does Trump think he is, rehabilitating Putler as a victim and telling us what to think?"

I guess the next big Uki crowdfunding project will be our own satellite constellation, for when Trump stops sharing intel.

The question is whether Europe will step up or not.
In theory, Zelensky and co should now be looking to China for a better deal, as they have actual leverage against the orcs.

This post has been edited by Mentalist: 19 February 2025 - 04:51 PM

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

 HoosierDaddy, on 19 February 2025 - 03:44 PM, said:

In America the doublespeak has truly started:

A special military operation in Ukraine actually means Retaliatory Justice for Unprovoked Invasion of Mother Russia.

IDK if you posted that before or after Trump posted this:

Quote

Think of it, a modestly successful comedian, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, talked the United States of America into spending $350 Billion Dollars, to go into a War that couldn’t be won, that never had to start, but a War that he, without the U.S. and “TRUMP,” will never be able to settle. The United States has spent $200 Billion Dollars more than Europe, and Europe’s money is guaranteed, while the United States will get nothing back. Why didn’t Sleepy Joe Biden demand Equalization, in that this War is far more important to Europe than it is to us — We have a big, beautiful Ocean as separation. On top of this, Zelenskyy admits that half of the money we sent him is “MISSING.” He refuses to have Elections, is very low in Ukrainian Polls, and the only thing he was good at was playing Biden “like a fiddle.” A Dictator without Elections, Zelenskyy better move fast or he is not going to have a Country left. In the meantime, we are successfully negotiating an end to the War with Russia, something all admit only “TRUMP,” and the Trump Administration, can do. Biden never tried, Europe has failed to bring Peace, and Zelenskyy probably wants to keep the “gravy train” going. I love Ukraine

https://truthsocial....031332924234939

He blathered on some more after that, but "I love Ukraine"... I feel like I should laugh but I'm too "horror-stricken" (or exhausted?). Deep breaths (as the antichrist's gestation swells)...

[Mentalist]

Ukraine is going to have an unequivocal position: when Putler orders the mobiks home, there will be elections.

I would be curious to see who will speak out against this, domestically.

[Werthead]

​
Ukrainian forces on the Donetsk front cut off a Russian combat formation in an industrial area, unexpectedly cutting back and trapping the Russian forces. The Russians refused to surrender, so a six-man forward operating team was eliminated by the Ukrainian 3rd Special Forces Regiment.

The deputy head of the occupied part of Zaporizhzhia Oblast was killed by a car bomb in Berdyansk.

A Russian unit going into battle with a donkey carrying their gear seemed unhappy that the donkey was being filmed. The donkey's views are unknown.

Borrowing from Israel's playbook, Ukraine intercepted Russian VR goggles being sent to Russian drone units. They rigged the goggles with explosives and detonated them in transit, though not during operation (which they decided was too chancy).

A Russian force tried to cross the border into Sumy Oblast and was defeated by the 78th Airborne Assault Regiment. Two Russian BMD-2s were destroyed. The Russian troops following them fled.

Russian forces continue trying to go on the offensive in Kherson Oblast. They attempted to cross the Dnipro and take positions on several islands. They were hit by Ukrainian drone and artillery fire. Two boats were destroyed and a dozen Russian infantry forces were killed. Russian attempts to continue attacking on this front remain futile and bewildering; some speculation that Putin has demanded one more major Ukrainian city to be captured soon and, with the Pokrovsk front looking shakier, Kherson is the nearest city to Russian lines. The fact it is heavily defended by Ukrainian forces and sitting behind one of the widest rivers in Europe seems to be lost on him.

Ukraine has apparently sent out a request for information from all local government officials on the practicalities of holding elections, including disabled access to polling stations, and suggestions on how elections should be held in areas where there are large numbers of refugees from occupied areas of the country.

The President of Brazil has confirmed that Germany had attempted to enter into an arms agreement with Brazil, but he rebuffed them, fearing weapons would then be sent on to Ukraine.

A Russian cargo ship, the Pavel Grabovsky, carrying 3,000 tons of corn has started sinking in the Sea of Azov.

Some American officials are looking at a new version of the minerals deal, including possibly allowing for Ukraine to automatically join NATO if Russia violates any future peace deal. But American officials seem to be constantly caught off-guard by Trump's non-sequitur statements, so this notion might not go anywhere.

Ukraine and Kazakhstan may hold discussions after a Ukrainian drone struck a pipeline carrying Kazakh crude oil. Ukraine was apologetic to Kazakhstan, a country not involved in the war (and increasingly antagonised by Russia), but noted it was a Russian pipe on Russian territory and thus a legitimate target.

Romania has passed a law allowing the interception of Russian drones and other weapons if they enter Romanian airspace. Hopes that Romania would expand their law to allow the interception of Russian drones and missiles if they entered AA weapons range of Romanian soil (a similar proposal has been floated in Poland), which would effectively provide NATO AA cover to the grain corridor, seem to have been rebuffed.

 A voluntary plan to recruit 18-24 year olds for the Ukrainian military has had over 10,000 sign up in its first week. The plan allows for education costs to be paid for them, NATO-level training given and these forces would be focused in non-front-line roles to start with (such as drone operations).

Starmer and Macron seem to have agreed on a potential plan for a post-war peacekeeping force, with Joint Expeditionary Force troops from the UK, France, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Norway and Sweden based in Poltava, Dnipro and Kryvyi Rih, able to reinforce Ukrainian front line forces, who would also be protected by allied and US air cover. The front would basically be as now, with possible land-swaps of Ukrainian territory for Russian territory in Kursk (some suggestion that Russian forces would withdraw in full from Kharkiv Oblast, which is not part of their claimed territory anyway, in return for Kursk). This plan seems to have widespread European backing, but Trump might balk at the requirement of US air cover. Russia has also said it won't accept NATO countries with troops in Ukraine, even if under a different name.

Economic indicators: Russian Minister of Economic Development Maxim Reshetnikov has said there is no more money to support Russian industry. They can be no more advanced growth, only "balanced decline." The food industry, chemical industry, woodworking and mechanical engineering sector are all showing signs of this decline. Reshetnikov has indicated that Russia can revitalise its economy or support the special military operation, but not both.

The Russian economy is inflating at an unprecedented rate, by 50 trillion rubles in three years, with no corresponding increase in useful economic output. This has created a bubble that could burst tomorrow or in another year or two, but when it does burst, it will be painful. The Russian National Welfare Fund is also collapsing, having less than 2% of GDP within it (before the war it was 7.4%).