[Macros]

Wait, what??

[Werthead]

Macros, on 29 July 2024 - 07:44 PM, said:

Wait, what??

The Russia-Ukrainian War is now being fought on three continents, with the main conflict in Europe (obviously), Ukrainian Spec Forces engaging Russian Wagner forces in Africa and armed guards on Ukrainian cargo ships shooting down (Russian-aligned) Houthi drones off the coast of Yemen.

Now all we need is Russian mercs in the employ of Venezuela to invade Guyana only to be driven back by Ukrainian forces who've somehow teleported in and we'll be getting towards the full set.

More seriously, this is where the risk of escalation starts getting more real, if perhaps also more deniable: I'd be shocked if France wasn't involved in helping the Ukrainian and rebel forces (whom the French were fighting up until three years ago but hey ho) as well, they are really keen to kick Wagner's arse off the continent (note that the behaviour of French forces in Africa has also been contentious as well, I suspect most locals would be keen for them all to F off). If we end up with French and Wagner forces shooting at each other, that could be a hairy moment. Though having said that, some Wagner mercenaries engaged US forces in Syria a few years back and were completely annihilated and Russia did nothing about it.

[Cause]

What was Russia going to do the USA? What would Russia do against France? Short of nukes Russia has to hope that everyone else stays only to weapons deliveries.

The Ukrainian war should be a sub section on the sunk cost fallacy on Wikipedia. Thousands of men, billions of dollars wasted and really nothing has changed or will changed.

Any word yet if Russia may have been behind the sabatage of the Olympics?

[Tsundoku]

Werthead, on 29 July 2024 - 10:47 PM, said:

Macros, on 29 July 2024 - 07:44 PM, said:

Wait, what??

The Russia-Ukrainian War is now being fought on three continents, with the main conflict in Europe (obviously), Ukrainian Spec Forces engaging Russian Wagner forces in Africa and armed guards on Ukrainian cargo ships shooting down (Russian-aligned) Houthi drones off the coast of Yemen.

Now all we need is Russian mercs in the employ of Venezuela to invade Guyana only to be driven back by Ukrainian forces who've somehow teleported in and we'll be getting towards the full set.

More seriously, this is where the risk of escalation starts getting more real, if perhaps also more deniable: I'd be shocked if France wasn't involved in helping the Ukrainian and rebel forces (whom the French were fighting up until three years ago but hey ho) as well, they are really keen to kick Wagner's arse off the continent (note that the behaviour of French forces in Africa has also been contentious as well, I suspect most locals would be keen for them all to F off). If we end up with French and Wagner forces shooting at each other, that could be a hairy moment. Though having said that, some Wagner mercenaries engaged US forces in Syria a few years back and were completely annihilated and Russia did nothing about it.

Hey Ment, isn't there supposed to be metric shit-tons of Ukrainians in Canada? Like ... calgary, or somewhere like that? I swear I saw a doco on it years ago.

And back in the day, there were loads of Russians in Bondi ...

[Macros]

Ment is currently making for the Bering straight

[Werthead]

Macros, on 30 July 2024 - 10:58 AM, said:

Ment is currently making for the Bering straight

Sarah Palin already there with her binoculars.

[HoosierDaddy]

Werthead, on 30 July 2024 - 05:40 PM, said:

Macros, on 30 July 2024 - 10:58 AM, said:

Ment is currently making for the Bering straight

Sarah Palin already there with her binoculars.

She has to make sure it's all clear. Can't have anyone threatening the Russian advance.

[Werthead]

Russia has been recruiting airfield guards to serve as assault infantry, calling them "motorized rifle regeiments of the Aerospace Forces." For some reason, they seem to be unhappy about this.

Multiple Telegram and milblog sources saying Russia's manpower is stretching to maintain its offensive momentum in Donetsk. To achieve victory they need to achieve a 50km-deep penetration of Ukrainian lines in short order, and do not see this as likely. Slovyansk-Kramatorsk is seen as the next target, and they are unsure if Ukraine will withdraw without contesting them due to unfavourable terrain and the very high population compared to other contested settlements (260,000) or fight hard for them. There's no doubt that Ukraine would fight hard for Zaporizhzhia city (750,000) and the resulting battle would be a bloodbath for Russians.

It looks like Russia renewed the offensive on Toretsk and ran into the same wall of artillery and drones as before, so fell back.

Russia launched 89 cruise missiles and Shahed drones at Ukraine, targeting the country's energy infrastructure. Fortunately, Ukraine knew it was coming because Russian strategic bombers had been practising drills last week and three missile submarines had moved into the Sea of Azov. Ukraine's air defences shot down 100% of the incoming ordinance, which is extremely impressive.

One of the drones briefly overflew Ukrainian airspace, entered Belarusian airspace and remained over Belarusian soil before sharply turning to try to hit a target just on the Ukrainian side of the border. Ukraine was wise to the move and seems to have hit it also the second it crossed the border, so no debris fell on Belarus.

1300 Russian soldiers confirmed killed or wounded yesterday. We're heading back up to the record.

Ukraine used a new air-interceptor drone to take down a transport helicopter near Donetsk city. The drone was operating in a high Russian EW environment at significant range from home base.

Ukraine is stepping up its use of French and US-supplied glide bombs (it is reportedly working on its own varient of glide bomb with a superior range). It destroyed a Russian-occupied building in Zaporizhzhia Oblast using a glide bomb launched from some 30km away.

A Ukrainian spec ops team operating with one of the Syrian opposition units used drones to attack and destroy a Russian equipment depot at the Kuweires Airbase, detonating a stockpile of Russian ammunition and equipment, and possibly destroying a short-range anti-air weapon. This is east of Aleppo and is a forward operating base for Russian forces and mercenaries operating in Syria. Ukraine had previously warned Russia it would consider Russian and allied contractors operating anywhere in the world fair game, and had previously eliminated 80 Wagner mercenaries in an ambush in Mali.

After some limited success with motorbike-assisted attacks, Ukraine has been targeting motorcycle storage areas along the front. Some Russians have switched to using electric scooters, which are less effective.

Just breaking: F-16s are now on Ukrainian soil, may even have started operations.

[Mentalist]

The orcs have advanced roughly 25 km NE of Avdiyivka since forcing their way in. It took them several months to do this, so this isn't something that can be easily described as "a breakthrough".

They haven't actually made any gains towards the big NW Donets'k agglomaration (Slov'yansk-Kramators'k-Druzhkivka-Konstyantynivka). Until there's any actual advances towards the remaining sizeable towns in western Donetsk Oblast, I don't think we will see any progress in that direction.

I'm not ecstatic about all the talk about F-16s now. I do hope the airbases they are being held at have sufficient anti-missile defenses, b/c it's gonna be open season for them now.

[Werthead]

A wild Ukrainian F-16 spotted flying over Lviv.

Security for these planes will be an issue. I think the original plan was to convert a dozen or more Ukrainian airfields into being capable of handling F-16s, both to give them more options but also to make it unclear to the Russians where they actually would be based, with obviously dummy aircraft and decoys deployed. Whether that plan was actually completed or not is unclear; some OSINT sources suggesting from their satellite observations it looks like maybe half a dozen airfields look like they can handle F-16s instead, which is less for Russia to shoot at. But intercepts of Russian missiles are improving, and Ukraine may have actually been waiting for a big strike on the power system to roll out the F-16s afterwards.

F-16 effectiveness should be solid but this is not a war-winning move. The F-16 is a significant improvement over the MiG-29 and the Sukhois Ukraine has now, but it's not a complete capacity change like, say F-22 or F-35 would be (F-35s would allow Ukraine to destroy every Russian S-300 and S-400 launcher in existence with virtually no risk of detection).

Perun's analysis is that the arrival of F-16s will primarily be useful in allowing Ukraine to replace its airframe losses (to enemy action or wear and tear) over the conflict and enhance the number of operations it can carry out.

[Mentalist]

Werthead, on 31 July 2024 - 08:53 PM, said:

A wild Ukrainian F-16 spotted flying over Lviv.

Security for these planes will be an issue. I think the original plan was to convert a dozen or more Ukrainian airfields into being capable of handling F-16s, both to give them more options but also to make it unclear to the Russians where they actually would be based, with obviously dummy aircraft and decoys deployed. Whether that plan was actually completed or not is unclear; some OSINT sources suggesting from their satellite observations it looks like maybe half a dozen airfields look like they can handle F-16s instead, which is less for Russia to shoot at. But intercepts of Russian missiles are improving, and Ukraine may have actually been waiting for a big strike on the power system to roll out the F-16s afterwards.

F-16 effectiveness should be solid but this is not a war-winning move. The F-16 is a significant improvement over the MiG-29 and the Sukhois Ukraine has now, but it's not a complete capacity change like, say F-22 or F-35 would be (F-35s would allow Ukraine to destroy every Russian S-300 and S-400 launcher in existence with virtually no risk of detection).

Perun's analysis is that the arrival of F-16s will primarily be useful in allowing Ukraine to replace its airframe losses (to enemy action or wear and tear) over the conflict and enhance the number of operations it can carry out.

The validity of that photo is being disputed, FYI


Tom Cooper worries about Mig 31s out-ranging the F-16s, which makes their use very limjited, as flying anywhere close to the frontline would endanger them to an unreasonable degree.

Anyhow, it remains to be seen over the next month or so if the momentum the orcs picked up is going to fizzle out or not.

[Werthead]

Mentalist, on 31 July 2024 - 09:38 PM, said:

The validity of that photo is being disputed, FYI

Tom Cooper worries about Mig 31s out-ranging the F-16s, which makes their use very limjited, as flying anywhere close to the frontline would endanger them to an unreasonable degree.

Anyhow, it remains to be seen over the next month or so if the momentum the orcs picked up is going to fizzle out or not.

I know there was a question mark over an earlier photo of an F-16 overflying a field said to be in Ukraine but was actually over Gdansk, Poland (possibly the F-16 was on its way to Ukraine though). This one I think was geolocated to Lviv.

Ukrainian sources saying that F-16s have carried out their first combat missions already, though not what what involved.

The MiG-31 has, on paper, a first-strike capability with the R-37M long-range missile, but the R-37M's effectiveness at maximum range is limited (i.e. if you're firing from maximum range, you have to hit the Ukrainian jet at the extremity of the range or the missile will run out of fuel before it can track the target). If you fire the R-37M once the F-16 is well within range, the MiG is now within counter-missile range from the F-16, and the F-16's AIM-120 is a very nimble turn-on-a-dime missile which almost certainly will splash the MiG unless it's very lucky (the range difference between the two missiles is 12 miles on paper, but in low-altitude combat, as is necessary over Ukraine and the Russian border, that's very questionable for the R-37M). The R-37M is pretty poor at maintaining lock versus counter-measures, and aircraft can simply dodge out of the way of them. The few times the R-37 and it successor, the R-77 (which is more capable but shorter-ranged), have been fired in dogfights, they've been generally disappointing (to the point that the Indian Air Force ditched them, citing them as not performing anywhere close to quoted specs).

It's worth noting that MiG-31s firing R-37s have so far failed to stop Ukrainian MiG-29s and even Sukhois from operating surprisingly close to the border, with the main issue being mission disruption: the MiGs fire and the Ukrainian jets have to spend several minutes faffing around with avoidance and counter-measures before resuming the mission, but in many cases the fuel burn pushes them to the red line and they have to abort. With an F-16 with a far more advanced avionics and weapons computer that can fire back almost immediately, the Russian pilots should be considerably warier, especially with their recent run of losses over the front.

That said, the F-16 is not a superplane that will win the war in three days. It is a very capable platform that gives Ukraine a bunch more options than it has now and a significant fightback capability in the air it didn't have before. It's not going to be enabling Ukraine to wipe out the Russian Air Force overnight.

[Mentalist]

Werthead, on 31 July 2024 - 11:11 PM, said:

Mentalist, on 31 July 2024 - 09:38 PM, said:

The validity of that photo is being disputed, FYI

Tom Cooper worries about Mig 31s out-ranging the F-16s, which makes their use very limjited, as flying anywhere close to the frontline would endanger them to an unreasonable degree.

Anyhow, it remains to be seen over the next month or so if the momentum the orcs picked up is going to fizzle out or not.

I know there was a question mark over an earlier photo of an F-16 overflying a field said to be in Ukraine but was actually over Gdansk, Poland (possibly the F-16 was on its way to Ukraine though). This one I think was geolocated to Lviv.

Ukrainian sources saying that F-16s have carried out their first combat missions already, though not what what involved.

The MiG-31 has, on paper, a first-strike capability with the R-37M long-range missile, but the R-37M's effectiveness at maximum range is limited (i.e. if you're firing from maximum range, you have to hit the Ukrainian jet at the extremity of the range or the missile will run out of fuel before it can track the target). If you fire the R-37M once the F-16 is well within range, the MiG is now within counter-missile range from the F-16, and the F-16's AIM-120 is a very nimble turn-on-a-dime missile which almost certainly will splash the MiG unless it's very lucky (the range difference between the two missiles is 12 miles on paper, but in low-altitude combat, as is necessary over Ukraine and the Russian border, that's very questionable for the R-37M). The R-37M is pretty poor at maintaining lock versus counter-measures, and aircraft can simply dodge out of the way of them. The few times the R-37 and it successor, the R-77 (which is more capable but shorter-ranged), have been fired in dogfights, they've been generally disappointing (to the point that the Indian Air Force ditched them, citing them as not performing anywhere close to quoted specs).

It's worth noting that MiG-31s firing R-37s have so far failed to stop Ukrainian MiG-29s and even Sukhois from operating surprisingly close to the border, with the main issue being mission disruption: the MiGs fire and the Ukrainian jets have to spend several minutes faffing around with avoidance and counter-measures before resuming the mission, but in many cases the fuel burn pushes them to the red line and they have to abort. With an F-16 with a far more advanced avionics and weapons computer that can fire back almost immediately, the Russian pilots should be considerably warier, especially with their recent run of losses over the front.

That said, the F-16 is not a superplane that will win the war in three days. It is a very capable platform that gives Ukraine a bunch more options than it has now and a significant fightback capability in the air it didn't have before. It's not going to be enabling Ukraine to wipe out the Russian Air Force overnight.

The way they've been hyped up and talked about for the last 2 years, if the glide bomb strikes from the SU bombers don't halt within a few weeks of them showing up, most commenters will end up saying "they're useless". Just like how people expected a platoon of M1 Abrams tanks to ensure UAF reached the Azov Sea coast last summer

[Mentalist]

Turkey facilitated a big prisoner swap,. Including several Russian oposition politicians, anti-war protesters and American "spies". They are being swapped for agents arrested in the US, Slovenia, Norway (IIRC), as well as Vadim Krasikov, the FSB officer sentenced to life in prison in Germany for killing one of Chechen leaders in exile.

Good for people who got out of the Russian prisons, but overall this means that GRU and FSB is likely to step up their activity in the West, with more assurances that even if they get caught, there's always the option to get swapped for some political prisoner.

Meanwhile, one of the defenders of Mariupol' died in prison in Rostov.

EDIT: Omsk refinery is on fire.

That's the biggest one in the country. Also, over 2400 klicks from the nearest UA-held territory.

This post has been edited by Mentalist: 01 August 2024 - 07:26 PM

[Werthead]

Apparently the drones delivered to the Russian front by the Sudoplatov company are pre-programmed to all operate on the exact same frequency, which Ukraine figured out and jammed months ago. Russian drone efficiency increased again a few months ago because drone operators had figured out how to change the frequencies. Sudoplatov was incensed when it found out and made the drones harder to customise in that way. Russia has now placed all drone construction and deployment efforts under Sudoplatov. They continue to arrive at the front with the exact same frequencies Ukraine has already jammed. Apparently some operators who tried to change the frequencies were disciplined.

Ukraine succeeded in a further counter-attack on the Kharkiv front. They captured some Russian radios from some captured soldiers and convinced the Russian unit they were friendlies returning to their own lines. They then opened fire at close range, capturing a treeline and trench fortification. Unclear exactly where this was, but not in an urban area so probably not Vovchansk, at least the main front.

The Omsk oil refinery, the largest in Russia, is on fire. It appears limited to one area so far.

[LinearPhilosopher]

Tsundoku, on 30 July 2024 - 07:54 AM, said:

Werthead, on 29 July 2024 - 10:47 PM, said:

Macros, on 29 July 2024 - 07:44 PM, said:

Wait, what??

The Russia-Ukrainian War is now being fought on three continents, with the main conflict in Europe (obviously), Ukrainian Spec Forces engaging Russian Wagner forces in Africa and armed guards on Ukrainian cargo ships shooting down (Russian-aligned) Houthi drones off the coast of Yemen.

Now all we need is Russian mercs in the employ of Venezuela to invade Guyana only to be driven back by Ukrainian forces who've somehow teleported in and we'll be getting towards the full set.

More seriously, this is where the risk of escalation starts getting more real, if perhaps also more deniable: I'd be shocked if France wasn't involved in helping the Ukrainian and rebel forces (whom the French were fighting up until three years ago but hey ho) as well, they are really keen to kick Wagner's arse off the continent (note that the behaviour of French forces in Africa has also been contentious as well, I suspect most locals would be keen for them all to F off). If we end up with French and Wagner forces shooting at each other, that could be a hairy moment. Though having said that, some Wagner mercenaries engaged US forces in Syria a few years back and were completely annihilated and Russia did nothing about it.

Hey Ment, isn't there supposed to be metric shit-tons of Ukrainians in Canada? Like ... calgary, or somewhere like that? I swear I saw a doco on it years ago.

And back in the day, there were loads of Russians in Bondi ...

Canada does indeed have a sizeable ukrainian population (estimated at 1.2m or 3.5% of total which is a pretty large slice given our country's demographics.

[Cause]

https://www.cnn.com/...intl/index.html

Holy shit. I watched this TV show. Didn’t really think it happened in real life.

You have to messed up psychologically to do this to your own kids.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Cause, on 02 August 2024 - 04:02 PM, said:

https://www.cnn.com/...intl/index.html

Holy shit. I watched this TV show. Didn't really think it happened in real life.

You have to messed up psychologically to do this to your own kids.

From the article:

Quote

"When the children came down the plane's steps – they don't speak Russian – and Putin greeted them in Spanish, he said 'Buenas noches,'" Peskov said. "They asked their parents yesterday who it was [...] they didn't even know who Putin was."

After coming down the plane's stairs, Dultseva, holding her tears, hugged Putin, who was standing on the red carpet rolled on the tarmac holding bouquets of flowers. Putin kissed Dultseva on the cheek and shoulder, and gave her and her daughter bouquets.

... but he gave them flowers... and kisses! That should make it all better, right?...

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 02 August 2024 - 06:31 PM

[Mentalist]

now watch a bunch of useful idiots pop up saying "lookit, Putler's clearly a guy we can talk with. He let 16 people (out of over 1.5 k) that were imprisoned on trumped up charges go, so he clearly knows how to hold up his end of the bargain.

Meanwhile, back in Feb Putler was "agreeable" to swap Krasikov for Navalny, but then "a tragic accident happened". And the deal got... altered.

Don't get me wrong, it's great that X amount of people don't have to risk dying in Putler's jails now. but trying to extrapolate this to a potential UA-RU "peace negotiations" (which is the inevitable next logical leap) is simply ludicrous, when every elemet of their neo-fascist dogma basically screams that Ukraine is a "historical misunderstanding" that absolutely should not exist.

[Werthead]

Morozovsk Airbase took an absolute pounding overnight. As many as a dozen hits, including on the main fuel and ammunition stores, igniting large parts of the airbase and leaving them on fire for hours. A fuel storage depot in Rostov was also partially destroyed.

An S-300/400 missile defense complex in Crimea has been destroyed.

Ukraine is saying it hit the Kilo-class missile attack submarine Rostov-on-Don in port in Sevastopol, sinking it altogether. The submarine was hit in a previous attack in September 2023 and was undergoing repairs.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 04 August 2024 - 06:55 PM