[Werthead]

Zelensky has provided an updated figure for Ukrainian KIAs in the war: 31,000. That seems surprisingly low, with previous estimates of 70,000 before last summer's offensive rising to around 100,000 now.

If the 31,000 figure is correct, that suggests Ukraine has had much greater success in extracting wounded soldiers than previously thought. Zelensky notably refused to give the figure of injured and non-combat-capable troops, suggesting that figure is vastly higher. This figure is more in line with online and offline reporting of Ukrainian deaths in newspapers, on social media, funeral and memorial services held etc; these figures had been updated to around 42,000 just last month.

Whilst this sounds "positive", at least in the sense that Ukrainian losses may be half or even less what was previously reported, the failure to address injured and permanently unable to fight suggests that figure might be uncomfortably high; for future military operations, soldiers permanently removed from the fighting pool are still a net loss even if they have not been killed outright.

Russians KIA are running at 120,000 at the lower end of estimates and around 200,000 at the higher end, with total Russian casualties (including no-longer-combat-capable) running from 330,000 to 410,000.

On the KIA ratio Russia seems to be running at a minimum of a 3:1 loss ratio to Ukraine, rising to a possible 5:1.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 25 February 2024 - 07:45 PM

[Cause]

Mentalist, on 23 February 2024 - 07:11 PM, said:

oh hey, apparently another A50 and Il-22 surveillance plane pair down.

Orc channels are claiming friendly fire again, as this time they both fell in Krasnodar Krai, so they didn't even make it far over the Sea of Azov.

Either way, that's a major blow to their coordination and surveillance efforts in the S. Should only have 1 or 2 A50s operational now.

Is it less embaressing to shoot down your own planes than say the enemy did it? I dont think so.

[Mentalist]

Cause, on 26 February 2024 - 02:46 PM, said:

Mentalist, on 23 February 2024 - 07:11 PM, said:

oh hey, apparently another A50 and Il-22 surveillance plane pair down.

Orc channels are claiming friendly fire again, as this time they both fell in Krasnodar Krai, so they didn't even make it far over the Sea of Azov.

Either way, that's a major blow to their coordination and surveillance efforts in the S. Should only have 1 or 2 A50s operational now.

Is it less embaressing to shoot down your own planes than say the enemy did it? I dont think so.

I mean if you want to continue to convince your population that you have the best, most invincible weapons in the world, you're willing to say that your own troops had an oversight and destroyed a priceless surveillance and radar detection plane. Twice.

Because your air defense is just too good, you know?

/s

[Werthead]

One story doing the rounds internally in Russia is that Navalny was set to be released as part of a prisoner transfer but Putin had some sort of major rage-out the night before and ordered him to be iced instead.

Hungary has ratified Sweden's accession to NATO, removing the last obstacle to enlargement.

Russia launched a raid on Ukrainian positions outside Robotyne using several IFVs, but were swarmed by drones. Two of the drivers hell-rode into the middle of the town, surrounded on all sides by Ukrainian forces and the continuing-to-attack drones. It did not end well for them.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Cause, on 26 February 2024 - 02:46 PM, said:

Mentalist, on 23 February 2024 - 07:11 PM, said:

oh hey, apparently another A50 and Il-22 surveillance plane pair down.

Orc channels are claiming friendly fire again, as this time they both fell in Krasnodar Krai, so they didn't even make it far over the Sea of Azov.

Either way, that's a major blow to their coordination and surveillance efforts in the S. Should only have 1 or 2 A50s operational now.

Is it less embaressing to shoot down your own planes than say the enemy did it? I dont think so.

They're willing to sacrifice Russian lives if it means murdering Ukrainians faster. Friendly fire just makes more martyrs! (or fewer criminals or mouths to feed, so either way...)

Quote

Russian forces have an unorthodox view of acceptable levels of military losses, with a willingness to expend troops and equipment to make even small gains on the battlefield.

[...] Attacking well-entrenched positions means the assaulting force is at far greater risk: Those troops are exposed, and retrieving battlefield wounded and dead is exponentially more difficult than for those troops in a trench. Ukrainian troops have often been astounded by the amount of dead and wounded Russian soldiers they see strewed across the battlefield.

Still, the Russian troops keep coming.

In Ukraine, Russia Is Inching Forward Death by Death - The New York Times (nytimes.com)

... because the devout Russians think they're all going to heaven? For in Russian Orthodox Christianity it's enough to magically 'repent' one's past sins, and murder in the name of holy Putin is martyrdom, not 'sin'.... Or perhaps the religion isn't really widely believed in by the military, but mostly just acts as cover / 'rationalization' for elites who dgaf about Russian lives other than their own?

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 27 February 2024 - 04:03 PM

[Mentalist]

Azath Vitr (D, on 27 February 2024 - 04:02 PM, said:

Cause, on 26 February 2024 - 02:46 PM, said:

Mentalist, on 23 February 2024 - 07:11 PM, said:

oh hey, apparently another A50 and Il-22 surveillance plane pair down.

Orc channels are claiming friendly fire again, as this time they both fell in Krasnodar Krai, so they didn't even make it far over the Sea of Azov.

Either way, that's a major blow to their coordination and surveillance efforts in the S. Should only have 1 or 2 A50s operational now.

Is it less embaressing to shoot down your own planes than say the enemy did it? I dont think so.

They're willing to sacrifice Russian lives if it means murdering Ukrainians faster. Friendly fire just makes more martyrs! (or fewer criminals or mouths to feed, so either way...)

Quote

Russian forces have an unorthodox view of acceptable levels of military losses, with a willingness to expend troops and equipment to make even small gains on the battlefield.

[...] Attacking well-entrenched positions means the assaulting force is at far greater risk: Those troops are exposed, and retrieving battlefield wounded and dead is exponentially more difficult than for those troops in a trench. Ukrainian troops have often been astounded by the amount of dead and wounded Russian soldiers they see strewed across the battlefield.

Still, the Russian troops keep coming.

In Ukraine, Russia Is Inching Forward Death by Death - The New York Times (nytimes.com)

... because the devout Russians think they're all going to heaven? For in Russian Orthodox Christianity it's enough to magically 'repent' one's past sins, and murder in the name of holy Putin is martyrdom, not 'sin'.... Or perhaps the religion isn't really widely believed in by the military, but mostly just acts as cover / 'rationalization' for elites who dgaf about Russian lives other than their own?

The idealists are doing this for the "glory of the Russian world"

Majority of mobiks are doing it because if they don't they get beaten, possibly raped and killed.

This post has been edited by Mentalist: 27 February 2024 - 07:01 PM

[Werthead]

Azath Vitr (D, on 27 February 2024 - 04:02 PM, said:

... because the devout Russians think they're all going to heaven? For in Russian Orthodox Christianity it's enough to magically 'repent' one's past sins, and murder in the name of holy Putin is martyrdom, not 'sin'.... Or perhaps the religion isn't really widely believed in by the military, but mostly just acts as cover / 'rationalization' for elites who dgaf about Russian lives other than their own?[/size]

Life in Russia is harder than I think a lot of people in the west appreciate, especially outside the comfortable big cities (sometimes even in them, given the freezing issues many cities had this winter, far worse than in Ukraine) and especially in poor rural areas out in the sticks, and it's worth remembering that "out in the sticks" in Russia is really out in the sticks (Russia being just over two contiguous United States wide). Men have been encouraged by their families to join the war because the pay is excellent (especially compared to the very little they are likely earning in their day-to-day job, if they have one) and if they die, their families get a bit pay-out. Russia also has a machismo-based culture, where bravery and military service are supposedly appreciated, although there have been some videos showing veterans getting beaten up if they start trying to play that card too much.

That said, there are limits to recruiting from that cohort, hence why they've instead been recruiting prisoners and bringing in foreign mercenaries.

This "human wave" strategy is also a bit baffling for Russia to pursue given it only worked for them in World War II because they (well, the Soviet Union, including, it should be remembered, Ukraine) had, at maximum mobilisation, something like 30 million troops to call upon, so grinding forwards with big losses made sense. If Putin tried to mobilise 30 million, he'd probably be lynched on the spot, so he really needs to look at preserving his troops' lives more, especially if he plans further adventurism elsewhere later on.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 27 February 2024 - 09:57 PM

[Mentalist]

They still have a pool of about 4-6 million of debtors and divorced deadbeats, who are the primary target audience for the ongoing recruitment efforts.

It's possible they'll go for another big mobilization wave after the "election", but there are several challenges. One is, they don't really have the capacity to process large numbers of mobiks simultaneously. The other, each mass grab accelerates the labour market shortages. Private businesses need to keep raising wages to compete with government arms factories that are flush with budget funds and hiring for triple shifts. But private sector can only raise wages up to a certain point before costs start to outweigh the revenue. Add to this the reluctance of Central Asian work migrants to go work in cities where they can be grabbed off the street and sent to the army. While a significant number (not everyone, but a decent chunk) of the young and brightest are trying their hardest to GTFO out of the country, and the demographic situation isn't looking too bright. Not that Ukraine is much better.

UAF continues to report crazy airplane shoot-down numbers, attributing them all to the mythical "roaming Patriot" all along the E frontline. Meanwhile on the ground, after being pushed out of Avdiyivka, they've been gradually falling back, with the apparently plan being to anchor the defensive line along the reservoirs on the Durna river. It remains to be seen how viable this will be.

Aside from this advance, the orcs seem to be running out of steam on the Kup'yans'k and Bakhmut axes.

Navalny's funeral is in Moscow tomorrow. The Russian libs are hoping for a big turnout to demonstrate the numbers of people who aren't 100% in love with the regime; I remain somewhat skeptical if they'll manage to outnumber the Rosgvardiya folks that'll be keeping an eye on them.

[Mentalist]

Tom Cooper has some interesting thoughts

https://xxtomcooperx...h-2024-112-or-8

Essentially, he is raising the possibility that UAF came up with a way to integrate their own radars with individual Patriot launchers. This would then allow them to break down the single Patriot battery (command centre, radar and 8 launchers) into multiple "mini-batteries", providing far more mobility and opportunities to pepper the orc aircraft from multiple points along the frontline, while also making it a lot easier to stay on the move (because 2-3 trucks are a lot easier to move around than 10). Which would account for ongoing flood of claims of shot down Su 34s (with an occasional Su-35 tossed in for good measure) since the beginning of Feb.

Also, he provides some particulars that suggest UAF counterattacks have stabilized the Avdiyivka-Mar'yinka axis somewhat... for now. A portion of the "800 k shells" that the Czechs were trying to raise funds to buy from non-NATO stocks should start arriving "in the next weeks", so once they do we might be able to say the Avdiyivka crisis has been addressed, somewhat.

The Rada is plugging away at the new mobilization decree, the expectation is to have it passed and ratified by the end of March.

Meanwhile, some lovely explosions in the vicinity of St. Petersburg port; payback for the residential building in Odessa destroyed by a Shahed drone. 18 apartments demolished (it hit the corner of the high-rise), and so far 8 people confirmed dead- including a 3-year old, and a mother with her 3-4 month old son.

Meanwhile, Sholtz continues to refuse to support UA with Taurus missiles (or give some to the UK, so they can hand over more StormShadows), while German commanders get wiretapped discussing strikes against the Kerch Bridge.

[Mentalist]

Patrol boats are supposed to be destroying sea drones. And they had some success with this.


But last night, "Sergey Kotov", one of the 4 patrol ships of the Vasiliy Bykov class, was sunk by the Kerch bridge. It's one of the newest Black Sea Fleet ships, as it entered service in summer of 2022, after the war started.


Fun fact: the Kotov was accompanying the Moskva when it attacked Snake island, issued its ultimatum to its defenders, and heard the historic reply.

[Werthead]

Good article on how Ukraine halted Russia's advance from Avdiivka.

[Mentalist]

As I expected, the "election" week in Russia started with another RDC/LFR incursion.

Also, another successful drone strike on the Nizhny Novgorod Lukoil refinery. should further diminish this capacity to process oil into petrol and kerosene.

Let's see how the attempts to entrench beyond the border go this time. Deep State is showing a whole bunch of little grey zones along the border now, and they're supposed to be mostly guarded with conscripts.

[Werthead]

Russia successfully expanding the war by invading Russia (again).

An IL-76 crashed after one of its engines literally fell off the airplane. These aviation issues are becoming too widespread to be ignored. Also, another Su-27 apparently retired.

A second Russia oil target at Oryol also apparently destroyed. Drones attacked another target near Moscow but were shot down, allegedly.

Another TOS-1A thermobaric missile system destroyed. I think we're coming up on 60% of Russia's entire pre-war reserves of that platform having been eliminated (although "several" new ones have been commissioned since 2022).

This post has been edited by Werthead: 12 March 2024 - 05:57 PM

[Mentalist]

Russia's 3rd largest refinery, in Ryazan, hit by 3 drones. Allegedly lost up to 70% of its processing capacity.
Also, Rostov governor confirms 3 drones fell on Novoshakhtinskiy refinery; "technological processes will be halted" for 2 days to assess damage.

https://xxtomcooperx...rch-2024-me-and

meanwhile, Tom Cooper be like: Y SBU hitting refineries and not airbases?

(last night the orc MoD reported shooting down 30 drones in vicinity of 2 airbases in Voronezh Oblast. Also a couple next to Novy Oskol airbase N of Belgorod).

Unclear what's up with RVC & co. They made a big proclamation urging Belgorod and Kursk citizens to evacuate, as "they will be forced to strike miliraty installations in cities" with the declared goal to halt bombardments of Kharkiv and Sumy oblasts. But still not sure what the situation is like on the ground, as very little footage from both sides. We'll see how this all pans out.

[Mentalist]

It is still a mystery what is actually happening on the N border. We have a drone video of a bunch of enemy troopers waving a white flag in the ruins of a border hamlet that's been completely demolished (likely not this week, as there's been back and forth shelling here since forever)

The governor of Belgorod Oblast did issue an order to temporarily close all shopping centres, though.

S- Stability.
Putler's 3-day re-election starts tomorrow.

This post has been edited by Mentalist: 14 March 2024 - 03:16 PM

[Werthead]

Macron is reportedly (unconfirmed as yet) deploying a significant French military force to Romania. He has said there is "no need" for this force to enter Ukraine but he will not rule out doing so in response to "Russian escalation."

The current scuttlebutt is that if deployed onto Ukrainian soil, this force would effectively take over military operations around Odesa, freeing up several large Ukrainian formations to reinforce the front line.

An alternative reading is that this force will only take action if Russian forces initiate military action in Moldova, as that will be a sign of the conflict spreading to another country, in which case France (and possibly Romania) will respond by reinforcing Moldova. France is not spelling out exactly what its plans are as part of its doctrine of strategic ambiguity.

Macron has also said that Russia is an opponent of France, but the conflict can end and good relations can be restored at any time of Russia's choosing.

Fecking hell.

ETA: Some reports now that the partisans in Belgorod and Kursk are using helicopters for rapid deployment, which seems pretty ridiculous inside Russian territory. That might support reports that Russia redeployed air defences from "secure" border areas to replace the S-300 and 400 complexes destroyed in Crimea.

Portugal has signed onto the shell procurement effort, meaning that the effort should now be able to deliver its higher target of 1 million shells to Ukraine.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 14 March 2024 - 10:17 PM

[Tiste Simeon]

It will be interesting, if France does start deploying, to see if others will follow suit.

Britain won't of course, too many Tories in the pockets of Russian oligarchs.

[Mentalist]

Werthead, on 14 March 2024 - 09:04 PM, said:

Macron is reportedly (unconfirmed as yet) deploying a significant French military force to Romania. He has said there is "no need" for this force to enter Ukraine but he will not rule out doing so in response to "Russian escalation."

The current scuttlebutt is that if deployed onto Ukrainian soil, this force would effectively take over military operations around Odesa, freeing up several large Ukrainian formations to reinforce the front line.

An alternative reading is that this force will only take action if Russian forces initiate military action in Moldova, as that will be a sign of the conflict spreading to another country, in which case France (and possibly Romania) will respond by reinforcing Moldova. France is not spelling out exactly what its plans are as part of its doctrine of strategic ambiguity.

Macron has also said that Russia is an opponent of France, but the conflict can end and good relations can be restored at any time of Russia's choosing.

Fecking hell.

ETA: Some reports now that the partisans in Belgorod and Kursk are using helicopters for rapid deployment, which seems pretty ridiculous inside Russian territory. That might support reports that Russia redeployed air defences from "secure" border areas to replace the S-300 and 400 complexes destroyed in Crimea.

Portugal has signed onto the shell procurement effort, meaning that the effort should now be able to deliver its higher target of 1 million shells to Ukraine.

French troops deploying around Odessa will have the orcs frothing at the mouth that "it's the Entente intervention during the Civil War all over again!"

Somehow I don't believe they'll actually take over watchign the Transnistrian border (main reason you need reserves in Odessa Oblast)

The entire Belgorod & Kursk situation is a mystery to me. DeepState hasn't done any map updates in the area, so I remain completely bewildered. Use of helicopters feels completely pointless, but what do I know?

It would appear the orcs are actually evacuating the town of Hrayvoron (again, just like last May when the very first raid happened), so the governor of Belgorod is anticipating some heavy action to push the insurgent forces back.

[Tapper]

Tiste Simeon, on 14 March 2024 - 11:27 PM, said:

It will be interesting, if France does start deploying, to see if others will follow suit.

Britain won't of course, too many Tories in the pockets of Russian oligarchs.

It’s a European election year.
A sceptical reading (mine) could be that Macron is trying to kill many birds with one stone and most of them have less to do with actually, actively helping Ukraine and more with his position on the (inter)national stage.

There is the French internal political situation in which (the unpopular) Macron positions himself and his government as pro-Europe, actively pro-Ukraine versus the previously Kremlin-friendly LePen (as many far right figureheads are/were - a source of embarrassment that unfortunately does not diminish their popularity much).

Secondly, it ties in with earlier speeches Macron made, which basically amount to “the EU needs to stand on its own.” Which traditionally translates to: “Within the EU, France can be a leader who does things differently from Germany,” (which can generally count on the support of the Benelux, Austria).

Further, it draws a contrast between Germany (very cautious in proclamations and which systems they deliver, seemingly afraid of escalation) and France (playing mind games with Putin), and the audience may include the EU/NATO countries bordering Russia as well as the US.

And it reminds both Europe and Russia that France is the only EU nation with nukes, so Putin will likely not provoke them.

[Mentalist]

Aggressive shelling of Belgorod, apparently with MRLS weapons. Which isn't a particularly good look, as the only things we are seeing are civilian casualties. Not sure what the insurgents are angling for here.

At the same time, considering how many vids we had of S-300 launches sending ballistic missiles to demolish Kharkiv and its environs, with the people filming saying "way to go" it's difficult to feel that much empathy.

If they weren't wasting so many guided bombs demolishing Sumy Oblast and sent them all to the eastern frontline as well, we could probably be dealing with a lot more problems.