[Werthead]

Looks like the US aid deal for Ukraine is going to go through after a ton of internal wrangling and possibly the current speaker quitting.

[Mentalist]

Werthead, on 15 March 2024 - 04:54 PM, said:

Looks like the US aid deal for Ukraine is going to go through after a ton of internal wrangling and possibly the current speaker quitting.

Discharge petition to bypass Johnson and put the senate-approved package to vote is stuck at 177 signatures. Since it's bundling aid to UA, Taiwan and Israel, I expect some Democrat congress people to be reluctant to endorse it.

Reps are now angling at restructuring aid to UA as a loan. Which is ridiculous, considering the bulk of the money is going to the US-based defense contractors- i.e, the majority of this "aid money" is being directly re-invested in the US economy . but you know, the soundbite of "keep taxpayer money for domestic issues" just sounds too good.

[Werthead]

Ukraine might take that deal, surely? They shouldn't have to, for the reasons you say, but if it breaks future impasses, it might be worthwhile. Sure, they'd be paying back the US for the next half-century, but Britain can commiserate with them about that (we finished paying off our WWII loans to the USA in around 2005, IIRC). The USSR, annoyingly, never had to and had its loans written off, which is rather annoying.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 15 March 2024 - 06:57 PM

[Werthead]

Increasing alarm on Russian Telegram and even some media channels about the success of Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian oil infrastructure. A number of facilities in and around the Samara region have been hit hard overnight, and Russian sources are saying they are hitting the distillation units. Everything else can be replaced pretty quickly, but if destroyed, these units can take months to replace (and are too expensive to have tons of spares sitting around). The success of the Ukrainian drone attacks is starting to seriously dent the production and output that the Russian economy relies on.

Apparently there is also a current blame-shifting game going on with the oil oligarchs saying it is the responsibility of state defence to defend them, but the military is saying they have been refused permission to operate on the private property the oil facilities are built on, so there's f-all they can do (the further out from the refinery, the greater the circle you have to defend, the less successful that defence will be).

The head of the Russian Volunteer Corps has appeared with a number of prisoners taken in recent attacks. He has proposed a ceasefire so they can discuss the repatriation of POWs to Belgorod.

"Dye-bombing" the Russian polling booths is now a widespread phenomenon. A green dye attack in Yekaterinburg and a red dye attack in Zelenogradsk, adding to the black dye attacks seen recently in several other locations. On more than one occasion a police officer patiently waited until the dye attack was completed before arresting the culprit in a very mild way.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 16 March 2024 - 12:40 PM

[Mentalist]

Werthead, on 16 March 2024 - 12:35 PM, said:

Increasing alarm on Russian Telegram and even some media channels about the success of Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian oil infrastructure. A number of facilities in and around the Samara region have been hit hard overnight, and Russian sources are saying they are hitting the distillation units. Everything else can be replaced pretty quickly, but if destroyed, these units can take months to replace (and are too expensive to have tons of spares sitting around). The success of the Ukrainian drone attacks is starting to seriously dent the production and output that the Russian economy relies on.

Apparently there is also a current blame-shifting game going on with the oil oligarchs saying it is the responsibility of state defence to defend them, but the military is saying they have been refused permission to operate on the private property the oil facilities are built on, so there's f-all they can do (the further out from the refinery, the greater the circle you have to defend, the less successful that defence will be).

The head of the Russian Volunteer Corps has appeared with a number of prisoners taken in recent attacks. He has proposed a ceasefire so they can discuss the repatriation of POWs to Belgorod.

"Dye-bombing" the Russian polling booths is now a widespread phenomenon. A green dye attack in Yekaterinburg and a red dye attack in Zelenogradsk, adding to the black dye attacks seen recently in several other locations. On more than one occasion a police officer patiently waited until the dye attack was completed before arresting the culprit in a very mild way.

Distillation units are often custom-made, and have been a sanctioned good since 2014. So destroying each one is a very big deal.

Once if they can't turn crude into petro products (diesel, petrol, kerosene, etc), there=e's an excess of crude. There's no place to store it all. If you can't set up emergency exports (and considering the Trans-Siberian railway is running at full capacity already, that's not happening), then you have to cut down production. This means capping wells. And when you cap an oil well dug out in permafrost, there's a very good chance you won't be able to un-cap afterwards. And drilling new wells is not cost-effective considering how tapped out the explored oil fileds in Western Siberia are.

So there's a very real domino effect that threatens long-term production with each of these distillation columns hit. And if they shift their CEW and anti-air to protect the refineries, that will weaken defense of airbases and military factories. And they can't afford to weaken defense at airbases, b'c the guided airbombs are their main advantage atm.

[Mentalist]

Werthead, on 15 March 2024 - 06:55 PM, said:

Ukraine might take that deal, surely? They shouldn't have to, for the reasons you say, but if it breaks future impasses, it might be worthwhile. Sure, they'd be paying back the US for the next half-century, but Britain can commiserate with them about that (we finished paying off our WWII loans to the USA in around 2005, IIRC). The USSR, annoyingly, never had to and had its loans written off, which is rather annoying.

Ukraine doesn't exactly get a say in the matter. If the reps make a bill like this happen in Congress (questionable, since the rep MAGA Heads could just say "daddy Trump wants nothing going to UA (as per Orban), then it will be up to the Dem Senate majority to make it happen.

[Werthead]

Slavyansk-on-Kuban refinery left burning after a heavy drone attack. Apparently after heated arguments between the oil oligarchs and the Ministry of Defence, there was no active defence in the area and the drones hit the refinery uncontested.

[Mentalist]

Insurgents claimed control of 2 villages in Belgorod Oblast yest. Today they published their claims as to the casualties they inflicted over 6 days. 613 killed and 829 wounded. They also claim to have destroyed or damaged about 10 tanks, 25 APC/IFVs, 15 arty pieces and like 80 various other vehicles. Huge claims with very scant evidence, so I guess we need to keep waiting for nay additional proofs (and whether we see any significant obituaries for the people allegedly killed in these raids)

[Macros]

So is this Russian casualties or Ukrainian?

[Werthead]

Confirmation that the Russians were indeed repulsed from Berdychi last week, as they mounted a major armoured push again yesterday. They ran into heavy counter-fire from cluster munitions and drones, and Ukrainian armoured forces mopped up what was left.

Belgorod hit again today by the partisan forces. The Russians are really missing the boat on counter-attacking them properly and driving them out of range of the city.

Russia has blamed both Moldova and Ukraine for a drone attack on Transnistria which destroyed a helicopter. Analysis suggests the drone was added in post-production. Additional camera angles show no drone at all, and the helicopter appears to have been left at the airstrip in 2003 and has not moved since. Some shots show it looking quite delipidated before it spontaneously combusted. OSINT sources divided on this being an accident or a deliberate fake-out.

Quote

So is this Russian casualties or Ukrainian?

Russian. Belgorod is a Russian city and oblast (region). Russian partisan forces have crossed the border from Ukraine, where they were formerly fighting alongside Ukrainian forces, and apparently have inflicted significant damage on Russian forces in the border region, whilst using long-range weapons to hit targets in and around Belgorod city. Their goal is the elimination of Putin and the replacement of the current Duma with a more representative body, although they're not necessarily nice guys who want full democracy (one of the factions supporting them actually wants Russia to become a white nationalist ethnostate, voluntarily give up all the regions with "other" ethnicities and become isolationist).

They did this last year and lasted about two days before being forced to retreat. This time they seem to be having much more significant success.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 18 March 2024 - 06:07 PM

[the broken]

Quote

Portugal has signed onto the shell procurement effort, meaning that the effort should now be able to deliver its higher target of 1 million shells to Ukraine.

So they hit that target after all?

[Werthead]

the broken, on 19 March 2024 - 01:34 PM, said:

So they hit that target after all?

Yes. A Czech government advisor said they were now on course to deliver over 1 million shells a few days ago. The Czechs are also sourcing a lot more stocks from third countries as well. Apparently France and Germany had put up some obstacles as they wanted all the support to come from the US or Europe alone and the Czechs finally said screw that and have gone on a shopping spree globally.

The Philippines has been stepping up, which is unexpected but excellent news, and South Korea (which is more expected) and even Taiwan, despite people assuming Taiwan would want to hang on to material for their own defence.

[Mentalist]

Werthead, on 19 March 2024 - 03:39 PM, said:

the broken, on 19 March 2024 - 01:34 PM, said:

So they hit that target after all?

Yes. A Czech government advisor said they were now on course to deliver over 1 million shells a few days ago. The Czechs are also sourcing a lot more stocks from third countries as well. Apparently France and Germany had put up some obstacles as they wanted all the support to come from the US or Europe alone and the Czechs finally said screw that and have gone on a shopping spree globally.

The Philippines has been stepping up, which is unexpected but excellent news, and South Korea (which is more expected) and even Taiwan, despite people assuming Taiwan would want to hang on to material for their own defence.

I'm sure we'll swap them shells for sea drones

[Werthead]

Some early indications that Ukraine may have retaken the Bilohorivka area, on the western approaches to Lysychansk. Ukrainian forces launched a serious assault on the trench complex near the town and took it after using some novel tactics (using heavy-duty, anti-vehicle landmines converted into "trench-clearers", or "trench-cleaners" depending on the translation, which appear to be extremely unpleasant to be on the receiving end of).

[Mentalist]

Werthead, on 19 March 2024 - 10:39 PM, said:

Some early indications that Ukraine may have retaken the Bilohorivka area, on the western approaches to Lysychansk. Ukrainian forces launched a serious assault on the trench complex near the town and took it after using some novel tactics (using heavy-duty, anti-vehicle landmines converted into "trench-clearers", or "trench-cleaners" depending on the translation, which appear to be extremely unpleasant to be on the receiving end of).

After all those months of trying to take the filtration station, were the orcs driven out again?
Don't tell me the 93rd Mech is back there.

[Werthead]

Engels Airbase in Russia, on the Volga, has come under drone attack. Unclear on the extent of the damage, but some of Russia's strategic bomber fleet is based there, including long-range bombers and aircraft used to launch cruise missiles and glide bombs at Ukrainian targets. Satellite photos showed quite a lot of planes on the tarmac just a few days ago.

The lack of lots of social media and video from civilians (Saratov, a pretty big city, is right next door) suggests maybe it wasn't a huge strike, but there is one video from a nearby car park indicating at least one very large explosion.

The scale of the repulsed attack on Berdychi is becoming clearer. The Russian 15th Separate Guards Brigade took an absolute pounding with several vehicles destroyed and at least dozens killed. The survivors reporting on the attack seemed to be genuinely shell-shocked. It looks like they expected an uncontested advance after Avdiivka.

More trouble in Buryatia, where a woman was jailed for quoting from Pushkin at a memorial to the writer. This was perceived as being anti-government in some fashion.

Belgorod has come under attack for the seventh day in a row. Kursk city has also seen some explosions in its vicinity, one of which hit a power substation and plunged the city into darkness for several hours.

[Mentalist]

Werthead, on 20 March 2024 - 07:41 PM, said:

Engels Airbase in Russia, on the Volga, has come under drone attack. Unclear on the extent of the damage, but some of Russia's strategic bomber fleet is based there, including long-range bombers and aircraft used to launch cruise missiles and glide bombs at Ukrainian targets. Satellite photos showed quite a lot of planes on the tarmac just a few days ago.

The lack of lots of social media and video from civilians (Saratov, a pretty big city, is right next door) suggests maybe it wasn't a huge strike, but there is one video from a nearby car park indicating at least one very large explosion.

The scale of the repulsed attack on Berdychi is becoming clearer. The Russian 15th Separate Guards Brigade took an absolute pounding with several vehicles destroyed and at least dozens killed. The survivors reporting on the attack seemed to be genuinely shell-shocked. It looks like they expected an uncontested advance after Avdiivka.

More trouble in Buryatia, where a woman was jailed for quoting from Pushkin at a memorial to the writer. This was perceived as being anti-government in some fashion.

Belgorod has come under attack for the seventh day in a row. Kursk city has also seen some explosions in its vicinity, one of which hit a power substation and plunged the city into darkness for several hours.

9 planes were parked on the runway the day before the strike.

The woman in Buryatia was reprimanded... for reading Pushkin while in jail She was jailed in late 2022 at an anti-mobilization rally. She took out a tome of Puskin from the prison library, and she read one of the poems that had some anti-authoritarian lines (in the context of the Decembrist Uprising), which was deemed by the prison officials to be inciting (despite the fact that the poem is part of the mandatory school curriculum, still)


The 7 settlements wedged between the Hrayvoronka and Vorskla rivers (in the SW corner of the Hrayvoron district) in Belgorod Oblast are now on martial law with checkpoints on entry and soldiers escorting people to and from their homes "when it's safe". 9 thousand kids to be evacuated from the southern districts of Belgotod Oblast'

Although UAF is holding in Berdychi, they seem to have pulled out from Orlivka and Tonen'ke to the other side of the reservoir cascade. The guided air bombs are inflicting insane damage on any attempts to fortify, unfortunately. That's gonna be a huge issue at least until we get some new planes, which might do something to alleviate this. But that depends what missiles they come with.

[Werthead]

Russia's Baltic Sea Fleet has managed to sink a Russian fishing trawler by accident during a live fire exercise. At least three people on the trawler Captain Lobanov were killed.

A heavy missile strike on Kyiv. The Ukrainians are claiming a high interception rate but falling debris caused significant damage. Some sources claiming multiple Kinzhal hypersonics were intercepted and destroyed, others just one.

Some indications that the Kovalchuk Brothers have fallen out with Igor Sechin, the Rosneft energy chief. These are some of Putin's closest advisors and members of the inner circle (or, if not, are at least knocking on the door of the inner circle). The three have apparently clashed over their nominations for the post-election reshuffle. Sechin's son Ivan died last month in weird circumstances (he spontaneously suffocated and fell unconscious, then his bodyguard gave the wrong address to the ambulance, which took two hours to reach him, by which time he was dead at 35).

At least some Russian formations have diverted from reinforcing the front in Ukraine to instead reinforce Belgorod, but have not yet amassed enough forces to counter-attack the partisans, who continue to attack targets in Belgorod and Kursk oblasts.

The partisans apparently engaged Russian forces in Kozinka and eliminated them, but discovered they'd just called for reinforcements, so they set a trap which successful engaged and destroyed the rescue team. Reportedly this was a GRU Spetsnaz Rescue Team (2nd Detached Special Forces Brigade), which if true would be quite a scalp. Even Ukraine is treating that claim with scepticism.

The CDU believes that Scholz will fold on supplying Taurus to Ukraine, but couldn't guess on the timescale.

The Institute for the Study of War is pretty conservative in its reporting, but it has expressed concerns over the plans to form new Russian army units in western and north-western Russia. It believes these units have zero reason to exist other than for offensive action against NATO member countries. It does not believe the threat is imminent but could become a major issue in three to four years, especially if Russia is successful in Ukraine. However, it notes significant demography problems in Russia that makes standing up new large militarised formations from scratch problematic.

[Mentalist]

Insurgents gave a 1.5 h conference today, but haven't had a chance to watch it yet. I'll edit this once I've done so.


Offidial claims re Kyiv were 2 intecepted ballistic missiles (either Iskander or Kinzhal) and 29 cruise missiles.

Re earlier strike of Engels airbase: there's rumours 2 bombers were damaged, but HUR is unable to confirm anything yet.

[Werthead]

Major incident underway at the Crocus City Hall concert venue on the outskirts of Moscow. At least five armed gunmen opened fire in the auditorium, where over a thousand people were attending a concert by the Russian band Picnic. Reportedly 40 dead and part of the building is on fire. Status of the attackers is unknown.

The US issued a warning two weeks ago that "extremists" were planning terrorist attacks inside Russia, including targeting concert halls. It went under the radar at the time but has come up again now.

Ukraine has issued a denial that it was involved, and the US concurs there is no intelligence chatter supporting Ukrainian involvement. Even Russian news and government sources have hesitate to point the finger at Ukraine. This seems to have genuinely come out of nowhere to Russia (but possibly not US intelligence).