[Nicodimas]

Werthead, on 22 March 2024 - 08:06 PM, said:

Major incident underway at the Crocus City Hall concert venue on the outskirts of Moscow. At least five armed gunmen opened fire in the auditorium, where over a thousand people were attending a concert by the Russian band Picnic. Reportedly 40 dead and part of the building is on fire. Status of the attackers is unknown.

The US issued a warning two weeks ago that "extremists" were planning terrorist attacks inside Russia, including targeting concert halls. It went under the radar at the time but has come up again now.

Ukraine has issued a denial that it was involved, and the US concurs there is no intelligence chatter supporting Ukrainian involvement. Even Russian news and government sources have hesitate to point the finger at Ukraine. This seems to have genuinely come out of nowhere to Russia (but possibly not US intelligence).

Tons of videos of this attack . Russia is pointing fingers toward ukraine and US.

Multiple assailaints with full auto like 8-12 . One guy i think had a flamethrower.

I probably cant link as it may offend people.

Russia did arrest one. 40 seems light from this one video.

They were using unit tactics. The astra video at 20 secs in ..thats a flamethrower

This post has been edited by Nicodimas: 22 March 2024 - 09:06 PM

[Nicodimas]

 hallattack.jpg (53.46K)
Number of downloads: 0

I have my thoughts on this, but the response..yikes

This post has been edited by Nicodimas: 22 March 2024 - 09:13 PM

[Mentalist]

Werthead, on 22 March 2024 - 08:06 PM, said:

Major incident underway at the Crocus City Hall concert venue on the outskirts of Moscow. At least five armed gunmen opened fire in the auditorium, where over a thousand people were attending a concert by the Russian band Picnic. Reportedly 40 dead and part of the building is on fire. Status of the attackers is unknown.

The US issued a warning two weeks ago that "extremists" were planning terrorist attacks inside Russia, including targeting concert halls. It went under the radar at the time but has come up again now.

Ukraine has issued a denial that it was involved, and the US concurs there is no intelligence chatter supporting Ukrainian involvement. Even Russian news and government sources have hesitate to point the finger at Ukraine. This seems to have genuinely come out of nowhere to Russia (but possibly not US intelligence).

They've summoned a SecCouncil meeting, meaning they want to accuse someone abroad.

Earlier today, Peskov outright stated they are now in a state of war with UA (IE, it's not the SMO anymore).

Regardless of the real causes, they will likely try to spin this in a way that puts the situation into the "Fatherland is in danger" mode. So we're gonna hear some fun things in the near future.

[Werthead]

OSINT sources saying the Russian police have put out an arrest warrant for five men from Ingushetia, although this does not appear confirmed yet.

Interesting if this is the "North Caucasus" group rearing its head again. This was a jihadist organisation that fought alongside the Chechens during the Second Chechen War, then went solo in Ingushetia and Dagestan. They halted operations in Russia to redeploy their assets to Syria to fight Russian forces there. They've been a generally low-key group of limited importance, but there has been concern over the fact they contain Russian citizens and can speak Russian, so could operate in Russia itself relatively freely.

Russian Telegram seems to be locking onto a description of "six bearded men of Caucasian appearance" (in Russia "Caucasian" means "from the Caucasus," which ironically does not mean what the rest of the world thinks of as Caucasian, but of Chechen appearance or that region). Seems to be some contempt in Telegram that this was a Ukrainian attack (the "they wouldn't have the balls" narrative is quite strong at the moment).

If the Russian government is angling to blame Ukraine on this, either opportunistically or because it's a false flag (I have doubts about that, this situation is way too easy to lose control of, which is just what you don't want with a false flag), they need to step that up.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 22 March 2024 - 09:18 PM

[Mentalist]

I thought Imarat Kavkaz threw in their lot with ISIL?

So far intel communities are saying "no links with UA or ISIL"

EDIT: ISIL claims responsibility.
Welp.

EDITAGAIN: could be fake channel, and The Guardian bought it.

This post has been edited by Mentalist: 22 March 2024 - 09:31 PM

[Nicodimas]

Mentalist, on 22 March 2024 - 09:26 PM, said:

I thought Imarat Kavkaz threw in their lot with ISIL?

So far intel communities are saying "no links with UA or ISIL"

EDIT: ISIL claims responsibility.
Welp.

EDITAGAIN: could be fake channel, and The Guardian bought it.

Yea it's always CS to target civilians

Isis is what I'm hearing now too.

[Werthead]

The US has now confirmed it informed the Russian government directly about intelligence of a renewed ISIS threat to not just Russian interests, but those of all anti-jihadist forces that have been operating in Syria.

The BBC, CNN and ABC are all saying that the claim of responsibility has come from recognised ISIS channels that have been in use for some years.

[Mentalist]

So now we wait until Kremlin figures out how to spin this.

They still haven't officially said anything.

[Werthead]

More information now linking these attackers to ISIS-K, the mega-extremist wing of lunatic jihadis who left mainstream ISIS, Al-Qaeda and the Taliban because they were not hardcore enough for their liking. ISIS-K have been fighting the Taliban in Afghanistan since even before the US withdrawal, taking the Taliban by surprise and causing a serious uptick in violence in Afghanistan for a while (a quasi-credible rumour is that this conflict calmed down because the US gave intelligence to the Taliban - !!! - about ISIS-K's operation, on the grounds that dealing with the Taliban is preferable to these guys).

They've also been linked to legacy ISIS operations in Syria, sometimes targeting Russian, Syrian and US coalition forces. A fair number of them seem to be from the north Caucasus originally, and seem keen to expand operations onto the sovereign soil of the countries they are fighting (European countries and the US should also be taking note).

[Nicodimas]

Us officials claim they knew the attack was coming from isis.


https://www.nytimes....ck-concert-hall

[Mentalist]

Huh, so they decided to tie Ukraine to it after all.

Well then

[Cause]

The simplicity and effectiveness of attacks like these worry me.

I was actually talking to a colleague maybe 7 days ago that society is more fragile than we realize and that at the end of the day its a good thing that the average person is not a psychopath. I specifically said that co-ordianted mass shootings would be deadly and probably easy to organize. I was referring to the USA when speaking but this is that fear manifest.

9/11 required a ton of money and planning, flight school and fake documents. Getting 5 squads of 5 men a bunch of money and guns and having them co-ordinate 5 mass shootings in americas 5 biggest shopping centeres would kill hundreds of people, hurt the economy and could probbaly be repeated a month later.

I see no reason to assume they had help from the USA or Ukraine. Probably just a terrorist group doing terrorist things. Russia has been operating in Syria for years and this wont change anything. If anything Kremlin can spin this to be more militaristic not less.

[Werthead]

Russia hitting Ukraine with missiles, mostly intercepted. But Ukraine has been hitting back, destroying the Black Sea Fleet communications hub in Sevastopol. Three Storm Shadows hit the building within the space of about five seconds, not leaving much of it standing. They also hit a major fuel depot in Hvardiis'ke, Crimea, which burned for hours. Russian air defences seemed slow in responding, with return fire only beginning after the first couple of impacts.

The Kuibyshev refinery near Samara was also hit yesterday.

[Mentalist]

Rumours that 2 more big landing ships in Sevastopol were "damaged". Satellite footafe shows one having a scorch mark, while the other's being dragged to a dry dock.

If we suppose one wase knocked out of commission, that leaves only 7 left. Out of the 13 total, including the extra ships they brought in from the Baltic and Northern fleets before the war started.

Also claims that 3 planes were hit in the Belbek airbase, one destroyed 2 damaged. The orcs are also claiming to have hit 2 Su-24 planes in Mykolayiv after they landed having launched the missiles.

Ongoing attacks on the UA power grid. With Congress going on recess for 2 weeks, we are going to be in for a rough time as there's gonna be progressively less anti-air missiles.

[Werthead]

Final confirmation that Patriot can take down Zircon hypersonic missiles: two were shot down before they could hit Kyiv this morning. That's a major blow to Russian prestige, as the Zircon is supposed to be a "proper" hypersonic weapon unlike the Kinzhal, which is a bit of an interim bodge job.

Ukrainian drones hit the Novocherkassk power plant in Rostov, disabling two power units. That's quite heavy damage.

[Cause]

Not that I have much sympathy for isis terrorist but just how bad is it in Russia? Footage of security forces electroshocking the terrorists groins and force feeding one of them his ear. I am not shocked they were mistreated. I suspect it could happen in any country in terms of a beating.

However, and maybe I am wrong, I imagine an ordinary police officer doesn’t just cut off peoples ears or perform electroshock right off the bat. Suggests to me that these things are already happening to some extent in Russia?

[Mentalist]

Cause, on 26 March 2024 - 12:14 AM, said:

Not that I have much sympathy for isis terrorist but just how bad is it in Russia? Footage of security forces electroshocking the terrorists groins and force feeding one of them his ear. I am not shocked they were mistreated. I suspect it could happen in any country in terms of a beating.

However, and maybe I am wrong, I imagine an ordinary police officer doesn’t just cut off peoples ears or perform electroshock right off the bat. Suggests to me that these things are already happening to some extent in Russia?

Anti-war protesters reported getting raped by riot cops early on in 2022 (when there were still mass protest attempts).

It's just more public terror tactics in order to shock the population into silent stupor and submission.

[Werthead]

Ukraine has hit a swathe of targets across Kherson Oblast (the occupied bit, obviously) and Crimea, hitting EW stations and even individual houses being used as barracks by Russian soldiers.

Interestingly, very little AA or anti-drone efforts to stop them. You sometimes see these efforts only being partially successful or even wholly unsuccessful, with missiles shot down by Russian air defence or portable anti-drone systems leading to shoot-downs. This latest swathe of attacks seemed to be meet very little resistance, the same with the last few hits on Russian refineries and power plants. In fact, one drone flew behind enemy lines and bombed an EW station that seemed to be trying to shut it down and having no impact.

One possibility is that Ukraine's new "AI control system" is now operating, which helps complete missions. When EW shuts down direct control, the AI takes control and completes the mission. The other is that Ukraine's boasts about having new control systems that Russian EW is ineffective against are correct, despite some scepticism in some quarters.

The other is that Russia's own stock of EW and AA systems along parts of the front has run so dry that Ukraine can operate with increasing freedom.

[Mentalist]

Werthead, on 27 March 2024 - 05:10 PM, said:

Ukraine has hit a swathe of targets across Kherson Oblast (the occupied bit, obviously) and Crimea, hitting EW stations and even individual houses being used as barracks by Russian soldiers.

Interestingly, very little AA or anti-drone efforts to stop them. You sometimes see these efforts only being partially successful or even wholly unsuccessful, with missiles shot down by Russian air defence or portable anti-drone systems leading to shoot-downs. This latest swathe of attacks seemed to be meet very little resistance, the same with the last few hits on Russian refineries and power plants. In fact, one drone flew behind enemy lines and bombed an EW station that seemed to be trying to shut it down and having no impact.

One possibility is that Ukraine's new "AI control system" is now operating, which helps complete missions. When EW shuts down direct control, the AI takes control and completes the mission. The other is that Ukraine's boasts about having new control systems that Russian EW is ineffective against are correct, despite some scepticism in some quarters.

The other is that Russia's own stock of EW and AA systems along parts of the front has run so dry that Ukraine can operate with increasing freedom.

The left bank troops are basically teh leftover frontline. They do their token 3-5 assaults on the Krynky bridgehead, and they shell Kherson, Nikopol and other riverside settlements, but the main focus of all efforts shifted to the E. Because they also get to maximize their effect of using glide bombs to degrade our defenses and take ground.

[Werthead]

Strong analysis by the Institute for the Study of War which identifies inherent weaknesses in the Russian war effort that make long-term success doubtful. Previous analyses had suggested that Russia favoured a long war to bring its perceived superior ability to withstand attrition (via a larger population and industrial base) to bear. However, several of the bases for Russia's strategy are now in doubt: Ukraine has weathered its assaults so far, Russian precision targeting and bombing success of military targets has been extremely poor (hence the Ukrainian Air Force remaining in operation two years into the war), Russia has failed to gain air superiority and Ukraine, allied with anti-Putin Russian partisans, has been able to inflict considerable damage on Russian soil, particularly to Russia's oil industry, weakening its key area of economic superiority. Ukraine has also gained technological superiority on the battlefield in several key areas (drones, electronic warfare, anti-drone, anti-air and long-range precision fires) that Russia was not expecting.

In particular, NATO and non-NATO support for Ukraine has proven far more robust than expected and Ukraine has made excellent use of resources to stymie or even reverse Russian gains in key areas; Russia remains in control of significantly less of the territories than it initially seized in February-April 2022, although the areas it has held onto the longest are now formidably defended.

The ISW analysis notes a concerted redoubling of efforts by Russia to instead win the information and propaganda war, focusing especially on the United States, noting its success in delaying packages of aid to Ukraine. The ISW overall analysis is that the United States, by itself, could effectively win the war and defeat Russia without firing a single American shot in anger or mobilising a single American soldier, but simply redirecting 5% of its defence spending to aid Ukraine (currently-assigned resources in 2022 and 2023 totalled significantly less than 0.5%). Coupled with European and other allied spending, Russia essentially has no viable path to victory whilst support remains in place.

Russia's strategy for success now hinges on detaching US support for Ukraine, and perhaps splitting the US from NATO via a Trump victory in the election. However, Russians themselves note (via milbloggers and even some mainstream statements) that the situation is more complex, and Trump is far more unpredictable than Biden and might blunder into a massive escalatory act by accident. Some note that he almost did this in North Korea and a surprised Kim Jong Un backed down in the face of his rhetoric; Putin is less likely to do so (without endangering his own position to the hardliners). Ergo the best strategy for Russia might be encouraging Republican victories in the House and Senate whilst trying to keep Biden in the White House, to continue the gridlock (possibly also on the calculus that Biden dying in office in his second term is a reasonable likelihood, with a corresponding political crisis in the United States that might distract from Russian activities in Ukraine).

This ties in with other analyses that suggest the greatest moment of danger for Ukraine in the war might be in the next few months. If Ukraine can weather a renewed summer offensive from Russia this year and if there is a positive outcome in the US Presidential Election, then Ukraine's prospects for victory increase significantly in 2025 and dramatically in 2026 (as renewed US and European arms production outstrips that of Russia), probably forcing Russia to a negotiated settlement along the lines of the Zelensky plan (which has been tentatively approved even by Russia-friendly countries like India). If Ukraine collapses in the coming months due to a lack of support, then Ukraine being overrun and forced to surrender becomes likely, and Russia moving on to target the Baltic States and possibly Poland (thus starting World War III) a year or two later becomes more likely.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 30 March 2024 - 10:09 PM