[Cause]

I suspect he got a good deal and didn’t care too much about the deal the troops got.

How much more embarrassment can Russia stand, what is the point of this war.

[Aptorian]

Man, what a let down. This was the least spectacular result I could have imagined.

I still doubt that the cook is alive a year from now.

[Tsundoku]

 Cause, on 25 June 2023 - 04:03 AM, said:

I suspect he got a good deal and didn’t care too much about the deal the troops got. How much more embarrassment can Russia stand, what is the point of this war?

The answers are:
a lot, and
zero.

 Aptorian, on 25 June 2023 - 05:22 AM, said:

Man, what a let down. This was the least spectacular result I could have imagined. I still doubt that the cook is alive a year from now.

He'd best stay away from multistorey buildings and windows.

[Macros]

And cups of tea and anything pointy.

The real and only question that needs answered from this, has the mask been torn enough to shake average Joseph into saying fuck you Putin, we see you aren't the strong man?

Alas I say not

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

 Macros, on 25 June 2023 - 09:52 AM, said:

And cups of tea and anything pointy.

The real and only question that needs answered from this, has the mask been torn enough to shake average Joseph into saying fuck you Putin, we see you aren't the strong man?

Alas I say not

Quote

The Russian dictator has been visibly wounded, and he will now bear the permanent scar of political vulnerability. Instead of looking like a decisive autocrat (or even just a mob boss in command of his crew), Putin left Moscow after issuing a short video in which he was visibly angry and off his usual self-assured game. Putin reportedly worries a great deal about being assassinated, and so perhaps he wanted to hunker down until he had more clarity about who might be in league with Prigozhin. But whatever the reason, he vowed to deal with Prigozhin decisively and then blew town, probably to his retreat at Valdai, in a move that looked weak and disorganized.

[...] Putin, however, is now politically weaker than ever. The once unchallengeable czar is no longer invincible. The master of the Kremlin had to make a deal with a convict—again, in Putin's culture, among the lowest of the low[...]

Prigozhin drew blood and then walked away from a man who never, ever lets such a personal offense go unavenged. Putin, however, may have had no choice, which is yet another sign of his precarious situation. All of the options were terrifying: Ordering the Russian military to attack armed Russian men would have been a huge risk, especially because those men (and their hatred of the bureaucrats at the Defense Ministry) have at least some support among Russia's officers and political elites. [...]

[...] Putin [...] has survived by making deals both with Prigozhin and with his own colleagues in the Kremlin that are, by any definition, a humiliation.

The Coup Is Over, but Putin Is in Trouble - The Atlantic

Quote

[Former] CIA senior official: Putin looks 'weak' after rebellion

"Prigozhin has deeply humiliated Putin. [...] Putin is really looking weak in front of the Russian people. He is not gonna forget this."

CIA senior official: Putin looks 'weak' after rebellion - Alternet.org

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 25 June 2023 - 11:37 AM

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Not quite 'fuck you Putin' but close:

Quote

in another blow to Putin, crowds of supportive Rostov residents were filmed cheering on the Wagner fighters and shaking their hands.

[...] Prigozhin [...] even happily posing for photos while he departed from Rostov.

[...] the ease with which he and his Wagner mercenaries appeared to take control in Rostov shattered Putin's carefully cultivated image as a strongman leader [...]

[...] Several Russian officers interviewed anonymously [...] said most troops were simply not willing to go head to head against Wagner fighters to defend cities from a takeover. "The mood is that no one is going to die for Moscow. [...] it makes no sense to die for this," [...]

Others said they actually supported Prigozhin: "That's why almost all roads are open for the [Wagner] convoys, for the same reason they managed to take Rostov-on-Don without a single shot in a few hours."

Why Did Putin Let Prigozhin Walk Away?

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 25 June 2023 - 01:42 PM

[Aptorian]

I don't like all these articles with their hot takes on what this means for Putin and the Russian regime.

...] the ease with which he and his Wagner mercenaries appeared to take control in Rostov shattered Putin's carefully cultivated image as a strongman leader [...]

No it fucking didn't. The media is under control and the people who get emboldened don't have a mercenary army in their pockets. The beatings will commence and continue until people remember who's in charge.

Good luck to the next guy who starts getting uppity.

This post has been edited by Aptorian: 25 June 2023 - 02:18 PM

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

 Aptorian, on 25 June 2023 - 02:16 PM, said:

I don't like all these articles with their hot takes on what this means for Putin and the Russian regime.

...] the ease with which he and his Wagner mercenaries appeared to take control in Rostov shattered Putin's carefully cultivated image as a strongman leader [...]

No it fucking didn't. The media is under control and the people who get emboldened don't have a mercenary army in their pockets. The beatings will commence and continue until people remember who's in charge.

Good luck to the next guy who starts getting uppity.

You think all those people who posted selfies of themselves smiling with the Wagner troops will be imprisoned and tortured (and/or executed)?...

There are other powerful factions within Russia; the way Russian forces refused to engage Wagner, even after they declared that Russia would 'have a new president', really does seem to indicate that Putin's power is slipping. Though not to the point of a mass uprising by ordinary citizens---which probably wouldn't work anyway....

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 25 June 2023 - 02:22 PM

[Primateus]

 Azath Vitr (D, on 25 June 2023 - 02:22 PM, said:

 Aptorian, on 25 June 2023 - 02:16 PM, said:

I don't like all these articles with their hot takes on what this means for Putin and the Russian regime.

...] the ease with which he and his Wagner mercenaries appeared to take control in Rostov shattered Putin's carefully cultivated image as a strongman leader [...]

No it fucking didn't. The media is under control and the people who get emboldened don't have a mercenary army in their pockets. The beatings will commence and continue until people remember who's in charge.

Good luck to the next guy who starts getting uppity.

You think all those people who posted selfies of themselves smiling with the Wagner troops will be imprisoned and tortured (and/or executed)?...

There are other powerful factions within Russia; the way Russian forces refused to engage Wagner, even after they declared that Russia would 'have a new president', really does seem to indicate that Putin's power is slipping. Though not to the point of a mass uprising by ordinary citizens---which probably wouldn't work anyway....

His power is slipping, but that doesn't mean that Apt is not correct. His power is slipping and it could make him more and more desperate, seeking more and more extreme means of securing his power.

Not that I know for sure that will happen, of course.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Quote

Prigozhin left [...] Rostov[...] late Saturday to a rapturous reception that resembled the departure of a rockstar, with crowds of men gathering around his car.

[...] residents in the city cheering as Prigozhin’s car stopped when one person approached. The smiling warlord[...] proceeded to shake the man’s hand.

“Take care of yourselves,” shouted another woman.

Some retreating Wagner group troops also tooted their horns and fired into the air, followed by loud applause from the public.

[...]

In stark contrast, hours after Wagner troops left the city, some locals appeared to be angrily greeting the police force that took their place, shouting “traitors” and “shame!” at them.

[...]

It was remarkable that some residents in Rostov-on-Don were openly showing their sympathies for Prigozhin in a political climate where even the slightest forms of dissent can lead to long prison sentences

Prigozhin’s rockstar exit from Rostov shows public support for ‘traitor’ | Russia | The Guardian

[Aptorian]

 Azath Vitr (D, on 25 June 2023 - 02:22 PM, said:

 Aptorian, on 25 June 2023 - 02:16 PM, said:

I don't like all these articles with their hot takes on what this means for Putin and the Russian regime.

...] the ease with which he and his Wagner mercenaries appeared to take control in Rostov shattered Putin's carefully cultivated image as a strongman leader [...]

No it fucking didn't. The media is under control and the people who get emboldened don't have a mercenary army in their pockets. The beatings will commence and continue until people remember who's in charge.

Good luck to the next guy who starts getting uppity.

You think all those people who posted selfies of themselves smiling with the Wagner troops will be imprisoned and tortured (and/or executed)?...

I think a select few will have unfortunate accidents, which will feature prominently in the news. Like it's always been the case.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Russia's probably too short on soldiers and security personnel for Putin to decide to execute everyone who failed to respond against Wagner... they could conscript more, but they'd take substantial time to train, and conscription is not going to get Putin loyal troops. Though fear of being executed may be a suitable motivator (unless they think they're more likely to die in the war---or they're going to Heaven)....

[Mentalist]

 Azath Vitr (D, on 25 June 2023 - 02:22 PM, said:

 Aptorian, on 25 June 2023 - 02:16 PM, said:

I don't like all these articles with their hot takes on what this means for Putin and the Russian regime.

...] the ease with which he and his Wagner mercenaries appeared to take control in Rostov shattered Putin's carefully cultivated image as a strongman leader [...]

No it fucking didn't. The media is under control and the people who get emboldened don't have a mercenary army in their pockets. The beatings will commence and continue until people remember who's in charge.

Good luck to the next guy who starts getting uppity.

You think all those people who posted selfies of themselves smiling with the Wagner troops will be imprisoned and tortured (and/or executed)?...

There are other powerful factions within Russia; the way Russian forces refused to engage Wagner, even after they declared that Russia would 'have a new president', really does seem to indicate that Putin's power is slipping. Though not to the point of a mass uprising by ordinary citizens---which probably wouldn't work anyway....

They will be identified, put on local FSB watchlists, and teh most vocal will get a nice talking to.

Prigozhin pulled a Kornilov 2.0
It's probably priming for whichever elite groups that are planning a much more graceful and less public palace coup. Which everyone will welcome, because "this old moron almost put us on the brink of a civil war because he was hanging on to his incompetent MoD". But this won't happen until there's another frontline major defeat.

If Shoigu keeps his post, internally Putler comes out of it only slightly tarnished, b/c he didn't really concede much.

I dunno. I thought Prigozhin was smarter than this. He burned his bridges with the radicals, and whatever guarantees he got mean fuck all, because he's an outlaw. And Russian tsars have a history of promising peasant rebellion leaders the moon, then slaughtering their troops when they get drunk and celebrate their "victory".


This is the least bad outcome for Russian state in the short-term; long-term repercussions will depend on how well the war goes.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Quote

MTG Suggests U.S. Behind Wagner Uprising in Russia

[...] Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene [...] “After our government has been funding a proxy war with Russia in Ukraine for over a year, I sure hope our government isn’t behind a coup attempt currently happening in Russia,”

MTG Suggests U.S. Behind Wagner Uprising in Russia

Quote

[Fox News Host] Maria Bartiromo Says Wagner Coup Coverage is Hunter Biden False Flag

[...] “The White House wanted to give the media something else to cover, and this is the MO,” Bartiromo said on “Fox & Friends Sunday.” “This is exactly the way they do things.”

Maria Bartiromo Says Wagner Coup Coverage is Hunter Biden False Flag

lol

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Quote

Day 486 of my 3 day war. The Russian invasion of Russia to free Russia from Russians is over, so now Russia is free to continue not invading Ukraine which is actually Russia cos the West is invading Russia from Ukraine which is Russia.

I remain a master strategist.

[...]

To show there are no hard feels, have asked Lukashenka to give Prigozhin an office with a view and a large window.

[...]

'The US authorities became aware of Prigozhin's preparations for a rebellion two weeks ago. However, they chose not to disclose this information to the public.'

And just like that, my tankies are suddenly outraged that the US did *not* interfere in Russia’s internal affairs….

Darth Putin (@DarthPutinKGB) / Twitter

[Tsundoku]

"The dildo of consequences rarely arrives lubed."

[Tsundoku]

What's the bet there was a lot more than 4 billion roubles in there when it was first found?

Wagner leader confirms Russian forces found billions of roubles stashed in boxes in minivan, buses
Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin has confirmed Russian security forces found boxes full of money stashed in a mini-van near his offices.

https://www.news.com...d6389b53149765e

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Quote

The only way to make sense of what happened in the past few days is to view events through the prism of a feud between criminal gangs in which each mafia boss holds so much leverage over the other that the balance of power can easily tip either way. The fact that Prigozhin is still alive indicates that whatever he holds over Putin is so damaging, and so well protected by unseen allies, that it is safer for Putin to allow him to live – for now.

[...] his escapade smoked out any traitors in Putin’s entourage. In this sense, Putin comes out stronger in the short term.

[...] If he really does end up in Belarus, Prigozhin may be the catalyst to finally drag Belarusian men into the war without Lukashenko having to send his regular army, something he has resisted [...] a Wagner group re-registered in Minsk, able to recruit Belarusian convicts or otherwise coerce Belarusian men into the war. [...] would force the Ukrainians to reinforce their northern border, thus taking away men from the frontlines in the east and south.

In the face of mutiny, humiliated Putin didn’t know what to do. We should worry about what he’ll do next | Samantha de Bendern | The Guardian

'Damaging' as in 'information'? Or something else? Could it just be the sympathies of the military and some of the oligarchs or governmental elites?...

One way for Putin to save face would be to claim that it was all a hoax to 'smoke out any traitors'. Or a ploy to allow Prigozhin to launch a sneak attack against Ukraine from Belarus---though Putin's people would have to wait until after the attack to make that argument. Perhaps arrange for Prigozhin to 'die valiantly' in the attack....

[Mentalist]

There has been no word about Prigozhin for over a day. And today we find out the criminal cases against him have not been closed.


So there's that.

[Lady Bliss]

 Mentalist, on 26 June 2023 - 01:08 PM, said:

There has been no word about Prigozhin for over a day. And today we find out the criminal cases against him have not been closed.


So there's that.

He’s either dead or in hiding. I’m betting on dead.