[Werthead]

The loss of the Kerch Strait Rail Bridge, even temporarily, means that 70,000+ Russians are effectively reduced to surviving on trucks driving along one road into Kherson. This does not seem particularly viable.

The Russians are very heavily pushing that this was an accident, presumably because 1) they don't need to retaliate, or 2) it really was an accident and after all these months of speculation about how Ukraine could or should take out the bridge, Russia has just done it themselves, which is incredibly on-brand.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 08 October 2022 - 09:38 AM

[Tsundoku]

Do you think the rat fucker could wriggle out of it? Or is he too far gone?

https://www.news.com...38f9905168567f8

The "Kherson Counteroffensive" snippet video is a bit overly-optimistic, and I doubt Poland are going to go into Belarus or Kaliningrad.

This post has been edited by Tsundoku: 08 October 2022 - 01:51 PM

[Werthead]

Tsundoku, on 08 October 2022 - 01:50 PM, said:

Do you think the rat fucker could wriggle out of it? Or is he too far gone?

https://www.news.com...38f9905168567f8

The "Kherson Counteroffensive" snippet video is a bit overly-optimistic, and I doubt Poland are going to go into Belarus or Kaliningrad.

I think it's difficult to see him doing that kind of climbdown now. Before the annexation, sure, consolidate the borders of Luhansk and Donetsk and admit mission accomplished. I suspect Italy and Hungary would immediately turn on the rest of the EU/NATO alliance and start campaigning hard for lifting energy sanctions etc (maybe Turkey, though Turkey's glee at the idea of Russia losing Crimea and thus a possible future gun to Turkey's head is a bit too enticing for Erdogan). It would create division and the conditions for a climbdown, and would leave Ukraine unable to join NATO (because of the frozen conflict clause) and, without further military support, unlikely to retake the Donbas or Crimea.

After the annexations I don't see how that's possible. Even the most Putin-leaning advocates in other countries have acknowledged that stripping Ukraine of almost a quarter of its territory (and Russian doesn't even occupy all of that territory) is overreaching and simply untenable to support. So I don't really see a way around that block. Even giving territory back to Ukraine would require a constitutional amendment that would be a huge amount of palaver, although it's possible in the extreme that this could be factored in to peace talks (i.e. "very tough talks" where Russia gains Luhansk and Donetsk but Putin magnanimously gives back Kherson and Zaporizhzhia in return for, I don't know, the Azov Battalion being disbanded or some symbolic BS).

I suspect Putin's plan is to hold the territory Russia has now, using his 300,000/700,000/1 million reservists to exhaust Ukraine's offensive momentum and basically agree to a peace by holding the four oblasts, with the negotiations maybe being about resetting the borders of the oblasts to match the front lines, with an end to the sanctions as part of the final deal. The problem is that absolutely nobody, not even his own generals and supporters, seems to think this is in any way a realistic outcome.

The various articles positing a power struggle beneath Putin between his underlings for whose policies will get more attention seems quite likely and is happening now. Some are arguing for ramping things up and some are arguing for trying to hold this line, but the ones arguing for some kind of climbdown either aren't saying that publicly or have been firmly overruled. The rumour is that Shoigu and Gerasimov are both unhappy with being forced to fight the war under-resourced and would look to find a way out of it by switching to smaller and more achievable aims, but both also have a lot of personal loyalty to Putin and he trusts them quite a bit (handy for them as they have, by far, the most resources for a coup), so I don't see them making a play counter to Putin's orders just yet.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 08 October 2022 - 03:42 PM

[worry]

Lotta cities being missiled right now with the apparent aim being maximizing civilian deaths/casualties.
Edit: Possibly also "symbolic" sites -- but certainly not military strategic targets.

This post has been edited by Renewed For 2 More Seasons: 10 October 2022 - 07:11 AM

[Mentalist]

Renewed For 2 More Seasons, on 10 October 2022 - 06:37 AM, said:

Lotta cities being missiled right now with the apparent aim being maximizing civilian deaths/casualties.
Edit: Possibly also "symbolic" sites -- but certainly not military strategic targets.

They've started hitting infrastructure- Kyiv, L'viv, Poltava and Khmelnytskyj reporting power outages.

Apparently, third wave will be actual military targets. There's a swarm of kamikaze drones on the way from Belarus now.

[Tsundoku]

Yep, there's not even a pretence that this is anything but deliberately targetting civilians during rush hour on busy streets.

https://www.news.com...26165c8351daae6

No trial needed for Putin and his ilk, just a couple of lead aspirins. Or maybe an open window above the 10th storey.

[Macros]

Leaning heavily into his Putler name now with a full on blitz on civilian targets

[Mentalist]

75 cruise missiles fired, Ukraine claims 41 were shot down.

That's still a lot of damage. multiple power stations were hit, some cities expereincing power and water outages.


Ideally, that piece of human excrement is burning through his missiles, while the West gets off their ass and starts shipping in those NASAMs, IRIS-Ts, and the US can start training UAF operators on how to use Patriots.

[Werthead]

Lukashenko threatening to involve Belarus directly.

I suspect this is Lukashenko again trying to appease Putin whilst appearing tough but not actually going into open conflict with Ukraine. That would be moronically stupid. Ukraine has had fairly strong forces along the Belarusian border for the entire war and kept them unengaged, so they are relatively fresh. Belarusian morale and appetite for war is completely nonexistent, senior Belarusian generals have indicated they would not support open conflict with Ukraine, and a third country getting involved would open the doorway for fourth and fifth countries etc. The chances of Lukashenko being toppled would exponentially increase if he ordered troops into Ukraine.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

'According to German news outlet BILD, the German embassy building in Kyiv was hit by Russian strikes'

BREAKING: German embassy in Kyiv hit by Russian strikes

Apparently (contrary to popular belief... or at least relatively popular misinformation) the German embassy is not actually considered German territory. So not technically an attack on a NATO member.

'The German defense minster promised to deliver the first of four modern IRIS-T air defense systems to Ukraine in "the coming days." The government had promised four systems, which are designed to protect larger civilian areas from rocket attacks, in June.'

Live Updates: Putin Says 'Mass Strike' on Ukraine Is Revenge for Bridge Attack - The New York Times

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 10 October 2022 - 12:38 PM

[Cause]

I was watching a news clip on YouTube about this barrage. Reading the comment section is painful, you can’t tell the Russian farm bots from the idiots.

Some people saying Putin is a military genius for bombing a civilian area are bots, some are paid, some are trolls looking to shock and some people just seem to really think it’s a good idea. It’s impossible to separate.

When you realise this is happening for everything on social media these days…

[Garak]

Yes the world is insane.

[Werthead]

Fortunately the world is not Twitter and YouTube comments, and the sheer size of Russian bot farms is beyond belief and is responsible for so much on this inane drivel in response.

Also:

PEOPLE WHO MAKE STINGERS: "And remember, you can't shoot down cruise missiles with a Stinger."

UKRAINIANS, NGAF: "Hold our beers."

This post has been edited by Werthead: 10 October 2022 - 06:19 PM

[Mentalist]

Were able to reach family back home. No power, but otherwise fine.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

'Killnet, a pro-Russia hacker group, posted a list of major U.S. airport websites on its Telegram account on Monday morning, telling its 91,000 subscribers that "The list below is for you!"

"We invite everyone to commit DDOS on the civilian network infrastructure of the United States of America!" the group added, listing airports, hospitals and health care systems, weather monitoring centers and metro systems as targets.'

'Russian-speaking hackers[...] disrupted the websites of multiple U.S. airports [...] No actual flight disruptions from the attacks were reported, but the downed websites were likely an inconvenience for people seeking flight information or booking services.

[...] Killnet took responsibility for knocking multiple state government websites offline around the U.S. last week'

Russian-speaking hackers disrupt multiple U.S. airport websites

Russian cyberattacks against the US (successful ones that make the news, at least) haven't been nearly as bad as some experts seemed to be predicting.

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 10 October 2022 - 06:42 PM

[Werthead]

Mentalist, on 10 October 2022 - 06:32 PM, said:

Were able to reach family back home. No power, but otherwise fine.

Excellent news!

[Tiste Simeon]

Mentalist, on 10 October 2022 - 06:32 PM, said:

Were able to reach family back home. No power, but otherwise fine.

A small ray of good news in an otherwise morbid day...

[Werthead]

Ukrainian intelligence has said the attack order was given on 2 October and they had received a partial list of the targets. As a result, they had civil engineering ready with replacement components and parts and had imported large reserve stocks to repair infrastructure.

Not for the first time in the conflict, the hint that Ukrainian intelligence may have some friends inside the Russian state providing them with intel.

[Werthead]

Belarus has pulled a whole bunch of decrepit T72s from storage and sent them to Donbas. More meat for the Javelin grinder.

[QuickTidal]

I wish this surprised me....but it does not. Musk is and always has been just another rich dragon hoarding his fucking billions....what really chaps my ass is that the CEO of a fucking CAR COMPANY is weighing in on global diplomacy (or lacketherof really)...let alone being in fucking bed with Former KGB-agent/Tyrant Putin...

https://www.vice.com...r-putin-ukraine

But yes, this should surprise utterly no one.

Also, this should very much put into perspective his whole "I'll give Ukraine Starlink internet!"....this motherfucker thinks he's goddamned Emperor Palpatine puppeting two sides of a war for how own benefit...You ain't that smart Musk. And bear in mind that recently there have been "outages" in Star Link over Ukraine...like give the guy a fucking moustache to twirl already....jeezus...