[Mentalist]

 Werthead, on 20 September 2022 - 09:30 PM, said:

Looks like the Russian position in Lyman is collapsing. The Ukrainians appear to have entered the town from the north-west and south-west and other forces have pushed across to cut it off from the east. Russian Telegram messages reaching Kharkiv levels of panic.

So Putler declares "partial" mobilization.


He may get some sort of results with that in about 3 months. By then they might be back to Square 1 in Donbas, and UAF will have a lot more shiny toys to kill them with.

This post has been edited by Mentalist: 23 September 2022 - 01:48 AM

[Werthead]

Shoigu: "We have only lost 6,000 troops and we have destroyed half of Ukraine's army. Victory is near! On a completely unrelated note, we need to mobilise 300,000 more meatbags, sorry, people."

[Chance]

Seems to be a brilliant way to loose any male between 18-35 that can get a job outside russia and has the resources or guts to move. While feeding another 300 000 (not that they likely get those numbers into the field) unprepared, underequipped and atrociously lead people into a meat grinder. Hopefully the mobilization can be levraged for more support from the EU and US.

By the way love the updates to this threat usually better than official news in sweden at least.

This post has been edited by Chance: 21 September 2022 - 11:41 AM

[Werthead]

Armenia, Kazakhstan and Vietnam have all joined the sanctions on Russian credit cards and payment systems. Two CSTO members effectively joining sanctions against Russia is huge.

Also some rumours that Armenia might formally withdraw from the CSTO, saying that if Russia is not going to fulfil its treaty obligations, the organisation is worthless. You have to think Kyrgyzstan might be thinking along the same lines as well.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

'raises the question of whether Putin is fully aware that his army is already unable to train and equip the much smaller numbers of reinforcements it has received to date. Coming as Russia’s parliament passes laws for severe prison sentences for those evading military service, the new measures seem likely to set up a comical game of musical chairs: thrown into prison for not going to war, Russian prisoners can then be recruited to go and fight with the promise of their sentence being annulled.

[...] reaction in Russia itself has been fearful, and rightly so. A tumble in the stock market has been accompanied by a spike in air fares and searches for how to leave Russia, as the implications of increased mobilisation hit home.'

Putin is admitting his previous threats were hollow by saying ‘this is not a bluff’

'While the Axis of Evil never actually existed, North Korea has been driven ever closer to fellow nuclear powers Russia and China, and is poised to become a leading member of [...] a possible future “Eurasian Union of autocracies.” Russia[...] may even be modeling itself after the hermit kingdom.

[...] Unable to recruit enough soldiers from the Russian Federation, Vladimir Putin [may] take[...] Kim Jong-un up on his recent offer to send 100,000 North Koreans to join the Russian president’s ill-fated attempt to seize Ukraine. Kim has also promised to send North Korean workers to help rebuild that country’s Donbas region, parts of which Russian forces have destroyed in order to “save” it.'

What happens if the maniacs win?

[Abyss]

This has been a fascinating thread to catch up on.

Piles of rumors were flying around yesterday that Putin had retired out a window when he didn't show on time for his speech. Unfortunately optimistic, but hey, lots of open windows in Moscow these days it seems.

[QuickTidal]

 Abyss, on 21 September 2022 - 01:52 PM, said:

This has been a fascinating thread to catch up on.

Piles of rumors were flying around yesterday that Putin had retired out a window when he didn't show on time for his speech. Unfortunately optimistic, but hey, lots of open windows in Moscow these days it seems.

I heard something about him only avoiding a recent assassination attempt because he saw the red dot on the wall?

I mean, the guy HAS to know his days are numbered right? Like he will be looking over his shoulder for the rest of his natural born life.

And yeah the sheer amount of people who has "fallen out of windows" in Russia is....high.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

'[...] Russian airlines [...] ordered to stop selling tickets to men aged between 18 and 65 unless they’re able to show evidence that they’ve been allowed by the ministry of defense to leave the country'

Flights Out of Russia Sell Out After Putin Orders Military Call-Up

[Mentalist]

They are no longer able to leave the country, so now Russians are googling "how to break an arm"

All plane tickets out of Russia are sold out. The only 3 European countries with open borders for Russians RN are Georgia, Azerbaijan and Finland. Maybe Norway, but I don't think many will travel that far north to try to cross the border.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Why hasn't Putin taken Kim up on his offer of 100,000 troops yet? Racism? Language/culture/training differences? Preference for clamping down on Russia?... More mouths for the Russian economy to feed?

[QuickTidal]

 Mentalist, on 21 September 2022 - 04:12 PM, said:

They are no longer able to leave the country, so now Russians are googling "how to break an arm"

All plane tickets out of Russia are sold out. The only 3 European countries with open borders for Russians RN are Georgia, Azerbaijan and Finland. Maybe Norway, but I don't think many will travel that far north to try to cross the border.

Locking your soldier-age-eligible population in your country like this seems like a really fast way to make them all turn on you, isn't it?

[Mentalist]

 QuickTidal, on 21 September 2022 - 04:28 PM, said:

 Mentalist, on 21 September 2022 - 04:12 PM, said:

They are no longer able to leave the country, so now Russians are googling "how to break an arm"

All plane tickets out of Russia are sold out. The only 3 European countries with open borders for Russians RN are Georgia, Azerbaijan and Finland. Maybe Norway, but I don't think many will travel that far north to try to cross the border.

Locking your soldier-age-eligible population in your country like this seems like a really fast way to make them all turn on you, isn't it?

You'd think so, but this is Russia we're talking about... Won't believe it until I see it. And by "it" I mean protests where law enforcement doesn't just pack away conscientious objectors like sheep.

This post has been edited by Mentalist: 21 September 2022 - 04:32 PM

[QuickTidal]

If they were smart they'd secretly organize so that when they are all inevitably conscripted and given weapons to fight in Ukraine...they turn united on Putin and his allies en masse.

But I don't know enough about the situation, or the people.

[Werthead]

The situation in Russia is one of total apathy. Maybe 10-15% of the population are hardcore Putin supporters and ultra-nationalists, and even they are held at arm's length by the Kremlin (people who can enthusiastically be cheering you today can be calling for your head as a traitor tomorrow). Maybe the same number are hardcore anti-Putin and want to see massive reforms and maybe democracy come in etc, but they are paranoid about confiding in others about that because of the risk of arrest. Maybe a similar number are mildly unhappy with Putin and the situation and would welcome reforms, but won't do anything about it.

The overwhelming majority of the population has an unwritten "deal" with the government in that they get on with their day-to-day lives and in return let Putin and the government do what the hell they want. The problem and risk with mobilisation is that this "deal" starts to be infringed on. If the middle-aged and elderly part of the population start seeing their children and grandchildren coming home in body bags and they turn on the government, the situation could go from apparently status quo to total collapse very quickly. It was the masses in Moscow and St. Petersburg seeing their children coming home dead from Afghanistan that played a key role in forcing the Soviet government into reforms and then collapse.

This latest move has certainly rattled the cages of that deal, but it looks like by saying that college students won't be targeted and the recruitment will start in the provinces and sweep into the cities only as a last resort, they are trying to heavily mitigate the dangers from that angle.

The main problem is that although Russians are fully capable of saying screw this and ejecting the government with violent force, they have to build up to the "snapping moment" over a fairly protracted period of time (which is what makes it unpredictable). In the meantime there's a risk that if Putin is overthrown, it might be by hardliners who feel he's been far too softly softly on the war and would go far more hardcore on it.

ETA: The Russian Telegram sphere has gone into meltdown over the Azov Battalion prisoner swap today. They are very angry about it, despite the fact they got 250 Russian PoWs back for only 55 Ukrainians (none of the Russians are hugely noteworthy, and they really dislike Medvechuk, the only significant returnee). A lot of people pointing out it's an odd carrot to be waving today of all days.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 21 September 2022 - 10:37 PM

[Mentalist]

Oh, God, the leaders of defenders of Azovstal/Mariupol Garrison, as well as some of the most publicized troopers- 215 in total (including the foreigners sentenced to death by DNR) were exchanged for 55 Russian PoWs... and Medvedchuk.

Z-heads are in apoplectic shock.

[Werthead]

North Korea has said it will not be supplying weapons or ammunition to Russia.

That's interesting. North Korea does not normally GAF about anybody else's opinions, so I wonder if China has had a word and is now starting to see the benefits of starving Russia of possible supplies to end the war ASAP rather than through a stupid escalation.

Apparently the provisions of the new partial mobilisation allow for 300,000 people to be raised but could enact a second wave to mobilise an additional 700,000. That's doing the rounds of Russian social media now and has not gone down well.

Some local regions in Russia are sending recruits for training, but others are apparently going to send them to the field piecemeal, which is a good way for that 300,000 to get whittled down a small part at a time.

[Tsundoku]

Don't know if you guys have seen this already, but in case you haven't:

Interactive Invasion Map https://storymaps.ar...6de641cf64bd375

Created by these guys - Institute for the study of war. From what I can gather they were created after the start of the Iraq and Afghan wars.
Non profit but supported by Military-Industrial companies so they seem a bit hawkish.

https://www.understandingwar.org/
https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar
https://en.wikipedia...he_Study_of_War

This post has been edited by Tsundoku: 23 September 2022 - 02:36 AM

[Abyss]

 Azath Vitr (D, on 21 September 2022 - 04:15 PM, said:

Why hasn't Putin taken Kim up on his offer of 100,000 troops yet? Racism? Language/culture/training differences? Preference for clamping down on Russia?... More mouths for the Russian economy to feed?

Empty rhetoric, was never going to happen. Before one even touches the brutal logistics and world scope repercussions of that ridiculousness, consider the optics of Putin's Russia having to go to North Korea for troops to support what they tried to sell as a reclamation of its own territory.
Also, Kim lies.

[QuickTidal]

 Abyss, on 22 September 2022 - 03:24 PM, said:

 Azath Vitr (D, on 21 September 2022 - 04:15 PM, said:

Why hasn't Putin taken Kim up on his offer of 100,000 troops yet? Racism? Language/culture/training differences? Preference for clamping down on Russia?... More mouths for the Russian economy to feed?

Empty rhetoric, was never going to happen. Before one even touches the brutal logistics and world scope repercussions of that ridiculousness, consider the optics of Putin's Russia having to go to North Korea for troops to support what they tried to sell as a reclamation of its own territory.
Also, Kim lies.

One of Putin's BIGGEST problems is that he's stuck in what he's doing and more than anything it's about saving face....he can't back out of the war as it not only makes him look weak, he's expended countless Russian lives on a fools errand, he can't really go forward much as he no longer has the capabilities or manpower to do so (this is the reason for the "mobilization" shit...he's trying to conscript the civilians into the war) but this is what he will do anyways, and he can't do things like go to other countries for help because as Abyss notes, that ALSO makes him look weak...

This guy is just spinning dinner plates now as he stands still, because there is nothing left to do and no way out that saves him and his inner circle. They are going to be toast one way or the other at some point, and all his shit is just prolonging that inevitability...and I'd argue he KNOWS it. He's not dumb, but he overestimated his chances in this war and he's in a corner now from which there really isn't an escape that isn't "weakness" or "loss".

[Abyss]

 QuickTidal, on 22 September 2022 - 03:34 PM, said:

 Abyss, on 22 September 2022 - 03:24 PM, said:

 Azath Vitr (D, on 21 September 2022 - 04:15 PM, said:

Why hasn't Putin taken Kim up on his offer of 100,000 troops yet? Racism? Language/culture/training differences? Preference for clamping down on Russia?... More mouths for the Russian economy to feed?

Empty rhetoric, was never going to happen. Before one even touches the brutal logistics and world scope repercussions of that ridiculousness, consider the optics of Putin's Russia having to go to North Korea for troops to support what they tried to sell as a reclamation of its own territory.
Also, Kim lies.

One of Putin's BIGGEST problems is that he's stuck in what he's doing and more than anything it's about saving face....he can't back out of the war as it not only makes him look weak, he's expended countless Russian lives on a fools errand, he can't really go forward much as he no longer has the capabilities or manpower to do so (this is the reason for the "mobilization" shit...he's trying to conscript the civilians into the war) but this is what he will do anyways, and he can't do things like go to other countries for help because as Abyss notes, that ALSO makes him look weak...

This guy is just spinning dinner plates now as he stands still, because there is nothing left to do and no way out that saves him and his inner circle. They are going to be toast one way or the other at some point, and all his shit is just prolonging that inevitability...and I'd argue he KNOWS it. He's not dumb, but he overestimated his chances in this war and he's in a corner now from which there really isn't an escape that isn't "weakness" or "loss".

His remaining chance may be to (re)take a chunk of Ukraine, settle in, and declare 'victory as planned!'. Hence the 300k conscripts... these are not going to be well trained well equipped soldiers sent into tactically planned battle... this is human waves being sent out to take ground with sheer disposable numbers. It's fucking Stalingrad as an offensive.