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The Russia Politics and War in Ukraine Thread

#761 User is offline   Cause 

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Posted 12 March 2022 - 04:04 PM

Maddison cawthorne is headed for jail I think. Apparently he got caughtspeeding for a second time while driving with a suspended licence. Call me crazy but the fact that he is a congressman makes the teangesnion worse. If he isn’t punished for that than they might as wel throw out the law
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#762 User is offline   Azath Vitr (D'ivers 

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Posted 12 March 2022 - 04:27 PM

View PostCause, on 12 March 2022 - 04:04 PM, said:

Maddison cawthorne is headed for jail I think. Apparently he got caughtspeeding for a second time while driving with a suspended licence. Call me crazy but the fact that he is a congressman makes the teangesnion worse. If he isn't punished for that than they might as wel throw out the law


Also of course the fact that he was partially paralyzed from the waist down in a car crash (hence the wheelchair) and yet he keeps speeding....

Seems to have the same attitude towards politics. Still the only US congressperson who's called Ukraine 'evil' and supported Putin during the invasion (that I know of at least...).

Although:

'Eventually Republicans Will Pivot to "Zelensky Is a Secret Sex Criminal Who Invented COVID"

[...] Putin has a "net favorability" rating of negative 79 even among Republicans.

How could this happen, given that only two years ago the mainstream Republican position was that the Ukrainian government was corruptly involved in supporting the Biden family (or something) and framing Russia for the theft of Hillary Clinton's emails? And that until just two weeks ago the right-wing media were praising Putin for defending heterosexuality and free speech?

[...]

The right-wing "echo chamber" is such that many of its figures had actually convinced themselves that the purported Russian threat to Ukraine was being concocted for some arcane, corrupt reason by the Biden administration and the liberal media, leaving them flat-footed and temporarily embarrassed when an invasion actually took place.

[...] Mega-MAGA Republican North Carolina Rep. Madison Cawthorn told donors over the weekend that "the Ukrainian government is [...] incredibly evil and has been pushing woke ideologies." (I have no idea what he means by the "ideologies" part, nor have I been able to find out—my best guess is that Ukraine is presumed to be "woke" because Putin has criticized gender fluidity and "cancel culture" and the GOP's newer members assume that everyone else is as motivated by cultural rage as they are, rather than by economic and security interests.)

[...] Past results do not always predict future performance, but they often do, and in this case they predict that some sizable number of Republican voters, media figures, and elected officials will decide that they support the bombing of Ukraine because liberals don't want them to. Once that decision is made, the consensus that Zelensky is the hero and Putin is the monster will sink into the same slurry of conspiracy theories that swallows everything else.'

https://slate.com/ne...ns-ukraine.html

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 12 March 2022 - 04:31 PM

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#763 User is offline   Azath Vitr (D'ivers 

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Posted 12 March 2022 - 05:15 PM

View PostCause, on 12 March 2022 - 04:48 AM, said:

That story is hard to believe.

However the Russian army appears to be surprisingly inept or Ukraine is doing a great job. Russia has lost 3 generals and I believe 2 were confirmed by Russia itself. That strikes me as incredible.

America didn't lose one general to my knowledge in the whole Afghanistan/ Iraq war


Could be false. Although:


'Ukrainians have been "very creative in how they're defending themselves," senior US defense official says'

https://www.cnn.com/...fficial%20said.

'The Russian army has always been bad at setting up and sustaining supply lines. [...] It's why so many tanks and other vehicles have been spotted stuck on the side of a road.

This weakness might not matter so much if an army makes rapid progress at the start of its offensive. Its troops could plunder the places they conquer for fuel, food, and other supplies. But the Russian army isn't cut out for lightning strikes. Troops are trained in rote set pieces, with no time devoted to improvising if things don't go as planned. One reason for this is that junior officers are not allowed to take initiative. This is deliberate; it's part of the top-down command system dating back to Soviet times, if not earlier. In politics and in warfare, the small elite on top doesn't want subordinates to get too creative—if they did, they might take over.

And so, as the Russian invaders met resistance, they didn't quite know what to do. Military operations designed to take place sequentially—Step 1, then 2, then 3, etc.—fell apart, catastrophically. If Step 2 hit a big obstacle, the by-the-book soldiers moved on to Step 3 anyway. Therefore, large troop-transport planes tried to land, even though the airport hadn't been completely secured and Ukrainian air defense systems hadn't been destroyed. [...]

Similarly, tanks aren't supposed to roll through hostile territory all alone. [...] Yet, in this invasion, Russian tanks are rolling all on their own [...] but getting no protection for themselves. So, as might be expected, lots of Russian tanks are getting ambushed.'

https://slate.com/ne...y-is-inept.html

Though I don't think every hierarchical or autocratic structure 'necessarily' prevents squad commanders etc. from improvising or being creative (improvising or being creative within particular bounds, that is)---China (among others) is probably taking notes on how to adapt (and AI surveillance could help them)....

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 12 March 2022 - 05:16 PM

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#764 User is offline   Azath Vitr (D'ivers 

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Posted 12 March 2022 - 10:00 PM

'Shaky footage in Ukraine shows this is a tale of two ways of waging war: stealth versus brute force

Ukrainian troops with anti-tank weapons set ambushes, while their enemy slowly encircles cities to besiege them'

... and to set up artillery (including thermobaric rocket launchers for the bomb shelters) to bombard them.

'On the Ukrainian side – in tactics reminiscent of the Finnish resistance during the Winter War of 1939, when the Soviet forces were fought to a standstill by largely outnumbered Finnish troops – Kyiv's successes have relied on highly mobile hit-and-run attacks on the slow-moving and congested Russian military columns.

[...] Russia's tactics have switched to a slow and brutal kind of siege warfare in response, designed to encircle and break Ukraine's cities and to force Ukraine's military into a more static defensive positions where they can more easily be overwhelmed.

[...]

Whether that succeeds – and how Ukrainian forces adapt – may well be defining.

[...] Russian siege of the southern port city of Mariupol where at least 1,500 people have died in a constant bombardment that has trapped defenders and civilians in basements[...]

Facing the challenges of the new Russian reliance on siege warfare, some analysts believe Ukraine's defenders will have to adapt again to confront the new threat that poses, amid grim warnings that an already terrible conflict could yet turn darker.

"It's ugly already, but it's going to get worse,"'

https://www.theguard...sus-brute-force

Hopefully other countries will be able to provide them with missile defense systems in time....

'On Wednesday, [...] said that the UK would supply air defense systems to Ukraine

[...] said the [US] Pentagon believed that the best way to support Ukraine was to provide them [...] air-defense systems, such as surface-to-air missiles and ground-based air defense systems'

https://lite.cnn.com...59c3eb449bbe0f3


'two missile defense systems [...] US delivered to Poland this week[...]

[...] designed to counter and destroy incoming short-range ballistic missiles, advanced aircraft and cruise missiles.

The US, seeking to avoid direct involvement in Ukraine [...]has repeatedly stressed that the deployment is only for defensive purposes.'

https://www.cnn.com/...iner/index.html

But those missile defense systems are just intended for Polish use... so why not send more of them through Poland to Ukraine?

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 12 March 2022 - 10:49 PM

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#765 User is offline   Azath Vitr (D'ivers 

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Posted 13 March 2022 - 05:01 PM

UK 'air defense systems' being sent to Ukraine apparently do not include missile defense or C-RAM systems.

'Counter rocket, artillery, and mortar, abbreviated C-RAM or counter-RAM, is a set of systems used to detect and/or destroy incoming rockets, artillery, and mortar rounds in the air before they hit their ground targets [...] U.S. Army: Land-Based Phalanx Weapon System [...] United Kingdom: British Army
16 Regiment Royal Artillery'

Counter rocket, artillery, and mortar - Wikipedia

'The UK is considering sending Starstreak anti-aircraft weapons and “a small consignment” of Javelin anti-tank missiles'


https://eurasiantime...craft-missiles/


'StarStreak is a man-portable air-defense system (MANPAD) used by the British military since 1997. It has the ability to knock out helicopters, low-flying fighter jets, and drones.'

https://www.19fortyf...-and-air-force/

Not going to stop ground-based bombardment (including the ground-based thermobaric launchers Russia has in Ukraine) or missile attacks. Not even adequate to stop Russian aircraft at mid-to-high altitude:

'What Ukraine really needs more than anything else are ground-based air defense systems — surface-to-air missiles, or SAMs — especially the kind with medium or greater altitude engagement capabilities that are optimized for high mobility.

The presence of medium to higher-tier SAM threats keeps Russia's combat aircraft from operating at medium altitudes or above, in effect pressing them right into the shoulder-fired surface-to-air missile (man-portable air defense systems or MANPADS) engagement envelope, which is roughly defined as anything under 15,000 feet. Thousands of MANPADS of different types have flooded into Ukraine and have been dispersed among troops across the country — and more are on the way. They have been brutally effective so far, but without the threat presented by more capable air defense systems, the opportunities to engage the enemy at lower altitudes will decline. In other words, the presence of one enables the other.'

https://www.thedrive...he-best-options

So what is the UK giving them? More MANPADS that only work against low altitude aircraft. Better than nothing, but not nearly enough.
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#766 User is offline   Gwynn ap Nudd 

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Posted 14 March 2022 - 01:56 AM

The problem is that most SAM systems require extensive training and support. The models in use in the UK and US would not be that helpful to Ukrainian forces not trained in their use. Which the article you quoted also states. Finland, Greece and some of the old Warsaw Pact countries still operate the ones Ukraine uses, and that's where any resupply would come from. Similar to why Poland was trying to send Migs rather than someone else sending F-16s or Harriers.

There has been talk about NATO searching for countries willing to send SAMs. I wouldn't be too surprised if the Patriot batteries being stationed in Poland are a precursor to Poland releasing SAM systems to Ukraine (also likely contingent on Poland's capability being backfilled). I also wouldn't be surprised if we don't hear about anyone sending SAM systems to Ukraine until well after they have arrived. MANPADs are much easier to conceal during shipment, and loss of a few by attacks on supply lines wouldn't make much difference given the number being sent. Not so much SAMs.
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#767 User is offline   Mentalist 

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Posted 14 March 2022 - 03:17 PM

Slovakia has SAMs

Realistically, we need them shipped to Odessa via Romania to cover the South.

Ground the planes in Crimea, and we can push back from Zaporizhya and cut the supplies for the troops besieging Mariupol from the West.

Today something like 150 cars got to evacuate from Mariupol. Supplies for the city are still stuck around Berdyansk and not being let through by the Russians.
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View PostJump Around, on 23 October 2011 - 11:04 AM, said:

And I want to state that Ment has out-weaseled me by far in this game.
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#768 User is offline   QuickTidal 

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Posted 14 March 2022 - 03:33 PM

Apparently so many Canadians went over to join the foreign Legion in Ukraine to fight that they were given their own Battalion? Some days I am quite proud of my country.
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#769 User is offline   Azath Vitr (D'ivers 

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Posted 14 March 2022 - 04:48 PM

View PostQuickTidal, on 14 March 2022 - 03:33 PM, said:

Apparently so many Canadians went over to join the foreign Legion in Ukraine to fight that they were given their own Battalion? Some days I am quite proud of my country.



And (Ukrainian-...-Canadian) Grimes's ex Elon Musk has challenged Putin to single combat to win her back.

#WorldIsSaved
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#770 User is offline   QuickTidal 

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Posted 14 March 2022 - 05:25 PM

View PostAzath Vitr (D, on 14 March 2022 - 04:48 PM, said:

View PostQuickTidal, on 14 March 2022 - 03:33 PM, said:

Apparently so many Canadians went over to join the foreign Legion in Ukraine to fight that they were given their own Battalion? Some days I am quite proud of my country.



And (Ukrainian-...-Canadian) Grimes's ex Elon Musk has challenged Putin to single combat to win her back.

#WorldIsSaved


This has to be peak nonsense for 2022 so far, right?...I don't like Musk on the best of days, but holy fuck the level of tone deaf this MFer engages in while Ukrainians fight a war to simply survive...this self-involved wealth-hoarding dragon can fuck off with his performative bullshit.
"When the last tree has fallen, and the rivers are poisoned, you cannot eat money, oh no." ~Aurora

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#771 User is offline   Azath Vitr (D'ivers 

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Posted 14 March 2022 - 06:14 PM

Posted Image
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#772 User is offline   Cause 

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Posted 14 March 2022 - 06:58 PM

View PostQuickTidal, on 14 March 2022 - 05:25 PM, said:

View PostAzath Vitr (D, on 14 March 2022 - 04:48 PM, said:

View PostQuickTidal, on 14 March 2022 - 03:33 PM, said:

Apparently so many Canadians went over to join the foreign Legion in Ukraine to fight that they were given their own Battalion? Some days I am quite proud of my country.





And (Ukrainian-...-Canadian) Grimes's ex Elon Musk has challenged Putin to single combat to win her back.

#WorldIsSaved


This has to be peak nonsense for 2022 so far, right?...I don't like Musk on the best of days, but holy fuck the level of tone deaf this MFer engages in while Ukrainians fight a war to simply survive...this self-involved wealth-hoarding dragon can fuck off with his performative bullshit.


I thought this was a joke. But he really said it! He is mentally ill, another man with too much money and fame who has lost his grip on reality. This isn’t game of thrones and absurdity aside why can he wager what he doesn’t own.
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#773 User is offline   Macros 

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Posted 14 March 2022 - 08:31 PM

he can't, its just egotistical bullshit from him.

on another note, the Igor thing is awesome
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#774 User is offline   Tiste Simeon 

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Posted 14 March 2022 - 08:53 PM

View PostAzath Vitr (D, on 14 March 2022 - 06:14 PM, said:

Posted Image

Brilliant.
A Haunting Poem
I Scream
You Scream
We all Scream
For I Scream.
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#775 User is offline   Malankazooie 

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Posted 15 March 2022 - 12:03 AM

About Madison Cawthorn, wasn't he called out for stolen valor by claiming his paraplegic situation was due to service in Iraq/Afghanistan? If that is true, that makes him a scumbag of the highest order.
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#776 User is offline   Azath Vitr (D'ivers 

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Posted 15 March 2022 - 04:08 AM

'the barrage of ballistic missiles Russia has fired into Ukraine contain a surprise: decoys that trick air-defense radars and fool heat-seeking missiles [...] They are released by the Iskander-M short-range ballistic missiles that Russia is firing from mobile launchers across the border[...] when the missile senses that it has been targeted by air defense systems.

Each is packed with electronics and produces radio signals to jam or spoof enemy radars attempting to locate the Iskander-M, and contains a heat source to attract incoming missiles. [...]

[...] help explain why Ukrainian air-defense weapons have had difficulty intercepting Russia's Iskander missiles.

[...] the Iskander can reach targets more than 200 miles away[...]

"That Russia is using that size of weapon [...] that's why we're seeing this now," [...]

[...] similar to Cold War decoys called "penetration aids," [...] that have accompanied nuclear warheads since the 1970s[...]

"The minute people came up with missiles, people started trying to shoot them down, and the minute people started trying to shoot them down, people started thinking about penetration aids," [...] "But we never see them because they're highly secret — if you know how they work, you can counteract them."

[...] may point to some level of carelessness or urgency by Russian military leadership[...] given that Russia knows they will inevitably be collected and studied by Western intelligence services so that NATO air defenses can be programmed to defeat the Iskander's countermeasures.

[...] "They're digging deep, and maybe they no longer care, but I would care if I were them."'

Russia Deploys a Mystery Munition in Ukraine - The New York Times (nytimes.com)

They might have other (differently designed) decoys they've yet to use... or they might think their hypersonic missiles don't require decoys to get past missile defense systems.


'Fielding advanced interceptors and non-kinetic systems such as high-powered lasers could be helpful[...] However, "that's going to take some more time" to develop and integrate the required technologies [...]

Experts emphasize the importance of having a layered defense, especially against hypersonics.

"We need to be able to engage that threat throughout its phases of flight,"'

https://www.national...hinese-missiles


On Cawthorn: he lied repeatedly about having been accepted into the U.S. Naval Academy before he was paralyzed (he had actually already been rejected); he also let a Fox News interviewer say 'you've given service to our country' (the implication of that statement generally being military service) without correcting them.

https://firemadison....rn/bogus-valor/

'[...] video of [Cawthorn] calling into right-wing extremist [...] show on January 6, said he was "armed" and had carried "multiple weapons" into the Capitol building inside his wheelchair.

[...] "So, you know," [...] "obviously having the wheelchair I'm able to carry many multiple weapons at one time. So you know, everyone around me is armed and you know, I think an armed society is a polite society, so I feel very safe. We don't have any high nerves here. Everybody's very, very calm, very sober-minded," he added, despite multiple reports to the contrary.'

https://www.alternet...orn-2656955655/

... no missiles inside missiles in his wheelchair hopefully. (Or bombs... his near-fatal car accident may have 'taught' him he's Go*'s unkillable chosen one, but hopefully that won't extend to blowing up the Capitol with himself in it and expecting to survive. Though he probably thinks he's bound for Heaven....)

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 15 March 2022 - 04:30 AM

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#777 User is offline   Mentalist 

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Posted 15 March 2022 - 03:14 PM

View PostQuickTidal, on 14 March 2022 - 05:25 PM, said:

View PostAzath Vitr (D, on 14 March 2022 - 04:48 PM, said:

View PostQuickTidal, on 14 March 2022 - 03:33 PM, said:

Apparently so many Canadians went over to join the foreign Legion in Ukraine to fight that they were given their own Battalion? Some days I am quite proud of my country.



And (Ukrainian-...-Canadian) Grimes's ex Elon Musk has challenged Putin to single combat to win her back.

#WorldIsSaved


This has to be peak nonsense for 2022 so far, right?...I don't like Musk on the best of days, but holy fuck the level of tone deaf this MFer engages in while Ukrainians fight a war to simply survive...this self-involved wealth-hoarding dragon can fuck off with his performative bullshit.

He gave Ukraine StarLink, so I'll allow it.
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View PostJump Around, on 23 October 2011 - 11:04 AM, said:

And I want to state that Ment has out-weaseled me by far in this game.
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#778 User is offline   Cause 

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Posted 15 March 2022 - 04:28 PM

A good act does not wash out the bad, nor a bad act the good. Each should have its own reward.

That’s essentially Elons problem. He is a very successful smart billionaire, and people have stopped calling him out on the nonsense but praise him for the Good.

Lol- Russia is sanctioning US officials. Besides not being able to vacation at their Russian Dachas they don’t own, does this mean anything concrete at all? I doubt anyone will lose sleep over this.

This post has been edited by Cause: 15 March 2022 - 04:32 PM

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#779 User is offline   Mentalist 

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Posted 15 March 2022 - 08:41 PM

View PostCause, on 15 March 2022 - 04:28 PM, said:

A good act does not wash out the bad, nor a bad act the good. Each should have its own reward.

That’s essentially Elons problem. He is a very successful smart billionaire, and people have stopped calling him out on the nonsense but praise him for the Good.

Lol- Russia is sanctioning US officials. Besides not being able to vacation at their Russian Dachas they don’t own, does this mean anything concrete at all? I doubt anyone will lose sleep over this.

Canadians getting sanctioned, too. Too bad I'm not important enough, that would've looked great on a resume.


Something like 20 thousand people were allowed to leave Mariupol on personal vehicles today. Not all of them made it to Zaporizhya, some had to stop over in cities occupied by Russia.
Those are being assaulted by Russian reporters who want soundbites that it were "the horrible Azov Nazis" that were not letting them leave.

Round 4 of the negotiations will continue tomorrow. Lack of serious Russian progress, coupled with ongoing losses, seems to make them more amenable to compromise.
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View PostJump Around, on 23 October 2011 - 11:04 AM, said:

And I want to state that Ment has out-weaseled me by far in this game.
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#780 User is offline   Cause 

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Posted 15 March 2022 - 10:24 PM

Instagram search algorithm served me a nice dose of Russian propaganda just now. Never had a Russian channel show up in my feed before. Also I thought Russia was banning it?
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