[Gorefest]

My understanding is that Trump routinely loaned out his Twitter account to his senile uncle.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

'Raccoon Cafe Doubles As Safe Haven For Ukrainians

[...]

"Just a few weeks ago, the only residents at a café in Kharkiv, Ukraine, were two raccoons, but ever since the city was targeted by Russian forces, people have started to seek refuge in the intimate space. The raccoon café has become a safe space for Kharkiv residents because it's located in a basement with thick walls. The café manager says the raccoons can sense something is wrong."'

Raccoon Cafe Doubles As Safe Haven For Ukrainians (Video) - I Can Has Cheezburger?



'Russian Orthodox Patriarch Kirill appears to be just as bloodthirsty as [...] Putin himself.

[...] Beneath [...] gold onion domes [...] a few miles south of the Kremlin[...]

"If we see [Ukraine] as a threat, we have the right to use force to ensure the threat is eradicated," [...] Kirill recently preached to his church's 90 million faithful followers. "We have entered into a conflict which has not only physical but also metaphysical significance. We are talking about human salvation, something much more important than politics."

The wartime coalition between Putin and his patriarch is called symphonia, an ironclad alliance between church and state that assures reciprocal reverence[...]

Byzantine and Orthodox church historian [...] reckons NATO and all those who stand against Putin's klepto-theocratic regime are in for a long wait. "The information war, the military war against Putin looks to be effective," [...] "But for all the West's digital gunpowder, we're up against nearly 700 years of a deeply entrenched otherworldly belief system."

As the patriarch sees it, Ukrainians are sinners. [...]

In Western capitals, [...] Kirill's muscular significance has been either disregarded or lost in translation. "Putin would execute any Russian churchman who disagrees with Kirill," [...] "Putin and Kirill are attached at the hip, and they've shaped religion to offer the Russian people spiritual nourishment instead of physical sustenance."'

Putin's Holy Man Pushed for the 'Eradication' of Ukraine (thedailybeast.com)


'[...] Russia's advances seem to correspond almost exactly to the range of their trucks.

"Logistics Rule--look at the map. You might be wondering why the Russian invasion of Ukraine looks like a group of almost equidistant road-linked thrusts stretching from Russia and Belarus into Ukraine. / Twitter

[...] claim that [Russian] trucks have not been maintained for a long time and there is little or no effort going towards maintaining them now[...] trucks are their drivers being pushed hard and overloaded, and all of this is leading to a lot of attrition.

[...] claim that we are only a few weeks away from the entire fleet of trucks breaking down[...] huge if true[...]

If it is indeed true, then this means that the correct action by Ukraine is mostly what we are seeing. If Russian logistics are not only bad but going to get that much worse over the next few weeks, then counterattacks and otherwise being flashy are unnecessary except to the extent they relieve pressure on civilians. Much better to wait, let Russia continue to exhaust its logistical capacity and overextend.

It also would mean that there's little chance of peace during that window. There's no way that Putin is going to believe the extent of the logistical problems, for several reasons one of which is that I presume there is no one who would dare tell him (or who would be wise to do so).'

Ukraine Post #5: Bits of Information - LessWrong

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 22 March 2022 - 11:58 PM

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

'The UK defense ministry[...] was dismissive of Russian claims about the [hypersonic missile] Kinzhal's combat debut, saying its use was "highly likely intended to detract from a lack of progress in Russia's ground campaign. Deployment of Kinzhal is highly unlikely to materially affect the outcome of Russia's campaign in Ukraine."'

Ukraine has denied Russia a victory for four weeks. A grim new phase could be coming. - CNN

Not clear what their reasoning is. That Russia doesn't need to use hypersonic weapons to get past Ukrainian missile defenses? Or that they don't have enough hypersonic missiles to make a difference (and they can't be loaded with FOAB, which is designed to be comparable to a tactical nuke but without the radiation)? Possibly even that they want to goad Russia into launching more hypersonic weapons to try to prove them wrong, depleting their supply?


'Putin is [...] wrapping his bloody deeds in spiritual language almost mystical in its vision of Russia's past and future.

[...] at a stadium concert [...] he invoked a Russian Orthodox warrior-saint who spoke of his own battles as "thunderstorms" that would "glorify Russia."

"This is how it was in his time; this is how it is today and will always be," Putin said of Fedor [...] an 18th-century admiral reputed never to have lost a battle and canonized as a saint in 2001, shortly after Putin became president.

[...] Experts say Putin isn't irrational in the usual clinical sense. But he has entered a realm where his decisions are driven by a grandiose sense of his place in Russian history. In his own mind, his mission is transcendent.

Putin described the bloody assault as salvation for Ukraine — and spoke of a religious duty "to relieve these people of suffering." [...] he quoted the Bible to justify his blitzkrieg: "I recall the words from the Holy Scripture: Greater love hath no man than this, that a man lay down his life for his friends."

[...] Putin's mother[...] was a "deeply religious" woman[...] who survived the siege of Leningrad in World War II after moaning for help amid a pile of corpses.'

[...] In Putin's view, the "Euro-Atlantic countries" have lost their spiritual anchor[...] "They are denying moral principles and all traditional identities: national, cultural, religious, and even sexual" and are on "a direct path to degradation and primitivism,"'

Putin's religiosity and sense of Russian history propels his fight in Ukraine - The Washington Post


'Russian Troops Are Now Turning on Each Other
MADHOUSE

[...] Russian soldiers have been caught venting about Putin's "bullshit" war [...] in an intercepted phone call [...]

"Basically, it's a shitshow [...]"[...]

After telling his friend that Ukrainian forces "tore apart" a column of Russian forces sent along with his own unit, he described complete disarray among the Russian military, with 50 percent of the unit suffering from frostbite on their feet.

"But they don't plan to treat them in the [field] hospital,"' [...]

[...] "They couldn't even send off the 200s here," he said, using a Russian military term for dead bodies. "They rode with us for five days."

[...] "blamed the commander of the group, Col. Yury Medvedev, for the deaths of his friends," [...] "Having waited for the right moment, during battle, he ran over the commander with a tank as he stood next to him, injuring both his legs. Now Col. Medvedev is in a hospital in Belarus, waiting for monetary compensation for combat wounds received during the 'special military operation to protect the Donbass.' Colonel Medvedev was awarded the Order of Courage," [...]

[Chechen dictator] Kadyrov claimed Medvedev's rescue was proof of how successful Putin's "de-Nazification" of Ukraine was[...] adding that "such moments on the battlefield bring us together."'

Russian Troops Are Now Turning on Each Other. 'It's a Sh*tshow,' One Soldier Is Recorded Telling Another

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 23 March 2022 - 10:59 PM

[Mentalist]

There are very early telltale signs that the grouping to the NW of Kyiv (about 3k strong) is getting its supply lines to the Chernobyl staging area snipped.

The Western Intelligence is drawing pretty maps to that extent, while Ukraine's HQ is largely keeping quiet.

Some action in the South as well, with the enemy no longer in vicinity of Mykolayiv, and getting split (not isolated yet , but....) in 3 operations theatres. With the only supply line being the bridge by Kherson.

Only problemetic area is Mariupol, but its defenders keep killing high-ranked officers on a near-daily basis. About 60k of the civilian population was apparently deported into Russia, which is disturbing. At the same time, with only 100k civilians remaining, it eases the burden somewhat.

Not really seeing any gains from Russia elsewhere, and they seem to be throwing in reserves as they get next to the borders, without really trying to mass numbers. So there's that.

[Mentalist]

Berdyansk, Zaporizhya Oblast. A port on the Azov Sea, occupied by the Ruscists. Used as a logistics base to ferry troops and materiel from Crimea to supply the siege of Mariupol.


And then something happened...

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

'On the 30th Day of Putin's Failing War He Invokes J.K. Rowling

[...] "They canceled Joanne Rowling recently—the children's author, her books are published all over the world—just because she didn't satisfy the demands of gender rights," [Putin] said in a televised address. "They are now trying to cancel our country. I'm talking about the progressive discrimination of everything to do with Russia." He then likened his definition of "cancel culture" to the Nazis burning books during WWII. "We remember the footage when they were burning books," he said. "It is impossible to imagine such a thing in our country and we are insured against this thanks to our culture."'

On the 30th Day of Putin's Failing War He Invokes J.K. Rowling (thedailybeast.com)


'Ukraine Claims Russian Military Police Are Destroying Their History Books

[...] Russian military police in the occupied territories of Luhansk, Donetsk, Chernihiv and Sumy regions are destroying Ukrainian literature and history textbooks from libraries.

[...] removed "historical and artistic literature that does not match the Kremlin propaganda posts." [...]

[...] books deemed as "extremist" by the Russian "are either removed, destroyed on the spot or taken out in an unknown direction."

[...] "School textbooks of Ukrainian history, scientific and popular historical literature are [being labeled] 'extremist' literature" [and] being seized'

Ukraine Claims Russian Military Police Are Destroying Their History Books (newsweek.com)


'[Russian military claims]: Hunter Biden had funded the Pentagon's "military-biological program" in Ukraine.

[...] backed up [...] with a color-coded spider diagram featuring pictures of Biden alongside a smiling George Soros and links to the Democrat Party and multiple U.S. government departments. What he didn't back it up with was any actual evidence.

[...] they know that simply mentioning Hunter Biden's name in the same sentence as "biolabs" would get them exactly what they wanted.

And just hours later, Fox News' top-rated host Tucker Carlson gave it to them[...]

[...] indications that measures the Kremlin had put in place years ago were beginning to reap rewards. For example, this viral map produced by a German media outlet secretly backed by the Kremlin was shared widely among progressives and served to distract those viewing it from the horrors unfolding in Ukraine by flagging other conflicts happening around the globe.

[...] What the Kremlin was waiting for was a narrative that would take hold not inside its own country, but globally, and in the biolabs conspiracy, it found the perfect one.

The conspiracy broadly claims that the U.S. is helping fund biolabs inside Ukraine (which is true) and that those laboratories are developing biological or chemical weapons that will be used against Russia (which is not true). Variations of the theory claim Ukraine was behind COVID-19, and that perennial right-wing bogey figures like Hillary Clinton and Anthony Fauci are involved.

[...]

Today, the biolabs story is everywhere. Along with Carlson's unending willingness to give airtime to conspiracy theories and Kremlin propaganda, [...] it is being boosted by hugely popular right-wing U.S. podcasts host including Steve Bannon, Dan Bongino, and Charlie Kirk.

[...] on Facebook, up to 80% of the posts sharing the bioweapons conspiracy have not been labeled to inform readers that the posts are missing context or contain partly or entirely false information.

The bioweapons conspiracy has become canon among many right-wing communities, who are using it as a way to justify their defense of Putin[...]

As well as pushing out this narrative via its army of cyber trolls, the government's highest-profile figures continue to push the conspiracy at every opportunity to help convince their own citizens that the war is justified.

"The Pentagon has placed biolabs all along the Russian border,"'

[...]

Experts also worry that the Kremlin could be boosting this narrative as a pretext to use chemical weapons inside Ukraine.'

Russia Was Losing The Information War. Then Fox News Stepped In. (vice.com)

[Macros]

Seriously, fuck fox news and all their ilk

[Briar King]

This old fuckers gaffes are going to get us to the war he is trying to keep us out of!

[Mentalist]

 Macros, on 25 March 2022 - 04:43 PM, said:

Seriously, fuck fox news and all their ilk

Anonymous hacked Russian Central Bank and posted 28 GB worth of data in open access.

If Carlson is on Kremlin's payroll, we will know it soon.

[Macros]

Oh wouldn't that be delicious

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

 Everything is fucked, on 26 March 2022 - 01:05 AM, said:

This old fuckers gaffes are going to get us to the war he is trying to keep us out of!

Huh, I almost missed that---didn't seem to get much coverage in the mainstream or progressive media (and apparently not even mentioned by many right-leaning news orgs like the Wall Street Journal or (libertarian) Reason):

'Biden suggested US troops WOULD be sent into Ukraine and had already been there in speech slip up to paratroopers in Poland [...] "You're going to see when you're there... you're going to see women, young people, standing in the middle, in front of a damn tank, saying, 'I'm not leaving,'" [...] he referred to the war [...] as "Tiananmen Square squared"'

'He also told paratroopers "don't jump" and suggested some might think lines in the Declaration of Independence are "corny"'

'[...] White House clarified [....] American troops would not go to Ukraine'

White House corrects Biden after he suggested US troops WOULD be sent to Ukraine | Daily Mail Online


'Biden declares Putin "cannot remain in power" in fiery Warsaw remarks

"We will have a different future, a brighter future, rooted in [...] light [...] For God's sake, this man cannot remain in power."

Biden spoke directly to the Russian people[...] You the Russian people [...] I refuse to believe that you[...] accept hospitals, schools, maternity wards, and for God's sake, being pummeled with Russian missiles and bombs,"'

Biden declares Putin 'cannot remain in power' in fiery Warsaw remarks | TheHill

I'm afraid Biden actually believes in (his) Go*... and that may incline him towards excessive optimism, and to devalue death (Go* will kiss it and make it all better by sucking their souls up to Heaven). Including death in the 'light' of nuclear annihilation.


'The Utopian Russian Novel That Predicted Putin's War Plan

[...] 2006 utopian novel, The Third Empire: Russia as It Ought to Be, anticipates—with astonishing precision—Russia's strategy of hybrid war and its recent military campaigns[...]

Yuriev's book, like Putin's war with Ukraine, is an expression of post-Soviet neo-medievalism, a far-right, anti-Western, and antidemocratic ideology that assigns "Russian Orthodox civilization" a dominant role over Europe and America. Yuriev[...] envisions an essentially feudal social order overseen by a political class that rules through fear. Putin and Yuriev knew each other. The Third Empire is rumored to be popular and highly influential in [Putin's] circle; one Russian publication described it as "the Kremlin's favorite book."

[...] Russia wins World War III because the West fears nuclear war. "American leaders hesitated to order an assault," Yuriev writes, "while the Russians clearly showed their willingness to go to the end."

[...] Statements by Vladimir II in The Third Empire are nearly indiscernible from contemporary speeches by Putin. "You don't like us?" the emperor mocks a French-television interviewer. "All right then, [...] refuse to buy our energy products, oil and gas, so that we starve to death." The narrator notes that the loss of Russian oil would have raised prices and "brought down the European economy."

[...] Yuriev revels in Russia's ability to take advantage of Western diplomacy. He writes:

Although Russia's annexation of Eastern Ukraine was not officially recognized … the demarcation line [...] was fixed. It was stipulated that Russia renounced any encroachment on the territory to the west of that demarcation. This was pure PR on the part of the United States because they knew perfectly well that Russia had no such thing in mind.

Yuriev's road map for Putin's foreign policy makes clear the futility of Western attempts at a diplomatic solution without regime change in Russia. Under Putin, Russia will attack again.

[...] Ultimately, the Americans and Europeans surrender. The world comes under Russian domination. The high point of the novel is a parade on Red Square. Among the forced participants are representatives of the American elite:

President [George] Bush III and former presidents Bill Clinton, Bush Junior, and Hillary Clinton; current and former members of the cabinet, the House, and the Senate; bankers and industrialists; newspaper commentators and television anchors; famous attorneys and top models; pop singers and Hollywood actresses. All of them passed through Red Square in shackles and with nameplates around their necks. … The Russian government was letting its own citizens and the whole world know that Russia had fought with and vanquished not only the American army but the American civilization.

[...] Perhaps Putin doesn't really expect to haul the Clintons in chains through Red Square. But when Volodymyr Zelensky warns that if Ukraine falls, war will move farther into Europe, he should be believed.

Even if Russia's recent setbacks result in a military defeat in Ukraine, Putin may attack one of the Baltic countries to undermine NATO. Western nations may decide not to risk World War III for the sake of, say, Estonia. If NATO does not respond militarily to Russia's aggression on one of its members, the de facto disintegration of the alliance might counterbalance the military disaster in Ukraine, thereby saving Putin's regime.

Yuriev's novel is fiction, of course, but should still help the West calculate the risks of appeasing Putin's aggression. Understanding Russia's expansionist vision should play an important role in Western decisions regarding the war in Ukraine: Ukraine is not Putin's only target.'

The Utopian Russian Novel That Predicted Putin's War Plan - The Atlantic

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

'A White House official later walked back the comments [...] saying Biden [... was] not [calling for] regime change.'

Hmm, another 'gaffe'? Biden's emotions getting the better of him? Freudian slips? Mind games to mess with paranoid Putin (it's not like he has nukes ready is i... oops)?

Of course 'for God's sake' is usually just a dead metaphor. But:

'[Biden's] speech [was] bookended with historic quotes from Pope John Paul II, the first Polish pope[...] "We have a sacred obligation under Article Five to defend each and every inch of NATO territory with the full force of our collective power."

Biden Says Putin 'Cannot Remain in Power' in Speech on Ukraine (thedailybeast.com)

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 26 March 2022 - 08:35 PM

[Briar King]

Atleast it seems he took his Prevagen today. I could get behind his tone atleast though I think what he said could be even more dangerous than Graham’s Brutus remark.

[Briar King]

“What’s getting walked back?”
“None of the three occurred. None of the three. You interpret the language that way.”

Holy shit I’ve been mystified by these remarks since watching this live and sorry but they did occur.

Very dangerous stuff the past few days.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

 Everything is fucked, on 29 March 2022 - 12:32 AM, said:

"What's getting walked back?"
"None of the three occurred. None of the three. You interpret the language that way."

Holy shit I've been mystified by these remarks since watching this live and sorry but they did occur.

Very dangerous stuff the past few days.

'[...] another reporter asked him about saying Putin "can not remain in power."

[Biden:] "This is ridiculous! Nobody believes we're talking about taking down Putin."'

https://www.realclea...023_budget.html

He's right about the first part at least (depending on which 'this' this 'this' is)....




Meanwhile:

'Oligarch and Ukrainian Negotiators Allegedly Poisoned During Peace Talks

[...] Western experts said it wasn't clear if the alleged attack was chemical, biological, or electro-magnetic radiation[ spreadable? potentially contagious?...]

"The experts said the dosage and type of toxin used was likely insufficient to cause life-threatening damage,[...] and most likely was intended to scare the victims [...]"'

Russian Oligarch and Ukrainian Negotiators Allegedly Poisoned During Peace Talks | Vanity Fair

'"Mariupol is gone. It's just gone. Volnovakha is just gone. The cities around Kyiv and Kyiv region [...] Scorched earth. Just scorched earth. Completely." Zelensky gives his first interview to Russian journalists since the war began.

[...] You've probably seen the photographs, but you haven't seen everything. We can't even show all this. It's impossible to show, because it's impossible even to show our population what it looks like. There are no buildings. In Volnovakha, there's nothing at all — no streets, no buildings. Nothing at all.

Mariupol, a bigger city, had half a million people. Imagine, a city with half a million people, 90 percent of the buildings were struck. They're gone. They burned up, they're gone. But there are at least some apartment buildings left. And you can imagine the state they were in. But in cities like Volnovakha, there's nothing left at all. Absolutely nothing. That's what they do. They just come in and burn everything, just burn it.'

'It's not just a war. It's much worse.' Volodymyr Zelensky's first interview with Russian journalists since the war began — Meduza

[Briar King]

It’s a city sized field now.

Everything is fucked.

[Mentalist]

This "denazification" crap is very much attempted genocide.

Which is why anyone walking any sanctions back until that regime collapses will be complicit in these killings, because they will just try to rebuild their strength and finish the job.

These peace proposals are very iffy. No mention of reparations, which is kind of important.
Unclear wtf is going on with Donbas, and Crimea is frozen for 15 years, which would give Russia a chance to genocide the Tatars a lot more.

They're pulling out of the north (mostly. Probably still going to try to level Chernihiv, but hopefully those artillery units can be located and slaughtered), b/c they need to make gains in the East. There were pictures out of Kherson today that they're mining the bridge, which would suggest they're planning to scramble out of the city. This would leave a sizeable portion of our troops victorious, but out of action, while they get to shift theirs and apply more pressure to try to surround the Donbas forces and eke out some more land concessions.

Ugh. It's gonna be a nerve-wracking week until some more things become clearer.

[Cause]

Trump asked Putin to release dirt on hunter biden! The man is his own worst enemy but somehow can’t take himself down. He sucks that badly at everything.

——

Just out of curiosity how have countries seized Russian oligarchs yachts? How was it their property a month ago but fair game to seize name? Just curious on how this actually works.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

'Suppose [...] Putin never intended to conquer all of Ukraine: that, from the beginning, his real targets were the energy riches of Ukraine's east, which contain Europe's second-largest known reserves of natural gas [...]

Combine that with Russia's previous territorial seizures in Crimea (which has huge offshore energy fields) and the eastern provinces of Luhansk and Donetsk (which contain part of an enormous shale-gas field), as well as Putin's bid to control most or all of Ukraine's coastline, and the shape of Putin's ambitions become clear. He's less interested in reuniting the Russian-speaking world than he is in securing Russia's energy dominance.

"Under the guise of an invasion, Putin is executing an enormous heist," [...]

Within Russia, the war has already served Putin's political purposes. Many in the professional middle class — the people most sympathetic to dissidents like Aleksei Navalny — have gone into self-imposed exile. The remnants of a free press have been shuttered, probably for good.'

What if Putin Didn't Miscalculate? - The New York Times (nytimes.com)

[Mentalist]

 Azath Vitr (D, on 30 March 2022 - 12:32 AM, said:

'Suppose [...] Putin never intended to conquer all of Ukraine: that, from the beginning, his real targets were the energy riches of Ukraine's east, which contain Europe's second-largest known reserves of natural gas [...]

Combine that with Russia's previous territorial seizures in Crimea (which has huge offshore energy fields) and the eastern provinces of Luhansk and Donetsk (which contain part of an enormous shale-gas field), as well as Putin's bid to control most or all of Ukraine's coastline, and the shape of Putin's ambitions become clear. He's less interested in reuniting the Russian-speaking world than he is in securing Russia's energy dominance.

"Under the guise of an invasion, Putin is executing an enormous heist," [...]

Within Russia, the war has already served Putin's political purposes. Many in the professional middle class — the people most sympathetic to dissidents like Aleksei Navalny — have gone into self-imposed exile. The remnants of a free press have been shuttered, probably for good.'

What if Putin Didn't Miscalculate? - The New York Times (nytimes.com)

He hasn't actually established control over NW Donetsk oblast, where the shale deposits are. Yet. That's actually going to be the main battle yet to come.

Most importantly, he's already gonna have a hell of a time selling to his people a "victory" merely taking all of Donbas (IF they pull that off, which is still TBD) after they promised them bringing basically all of Ukraine into the fold with minimal losses.

Ideally, we can get the switchblades over to to Izyum-Slov'yans'k theater, ASAP, and turn all that armor into scrap. At this point it's gonna be a tough fight to destroy their attacking capacity--ideally, permanently.

The South will be more complicated. Depends how the fighting around Kherson on the Right Bank will go. Taking back the steppe will be a grind unless they break.

Remains to be seen. Too many unknowns still.