[Werthead]

It remains a difficult situation but it looks a little more certain that Ukraine counter-attacks around Pokrovsk have been effective in at least halting the immediate offensive (for how long remains unclear). At least 300 Russian soldiers are still in the city and are under heavy attack (though some sources say it may be more like 1,000). The crucial stage will be Russia succeeding in linking up contiguous ground supply routes to them, which does not appear to have happened yet. Counter-attacks on the flanks are continuing. The Lyman front has stabilised, the Kupyansk front is active with little detail of what's going on. The Dobropillia front is very active, with both Russia and Ukraine trying to draw enemy reinforcements away from Pokrovsk. The Myrnohrad front remains contested, but some signs of the Russian effort slackening.

Russia might be trying to do too much here with not enough men. If it had gone all-in on Pokrovsk, Dobropillia, Kupyansk, Vovchansk or Sumy it might have succeeded with one or two of those offensives, but it spread itself thin again, with far less active reserves available.

The UK has delivered new Storm Shadow missiles to Ukraine.

The Saratov refinery has taken a heavy hit overnight.

The reporting now is that Ukraine has received two Patriot batteries from Germany.

Serbia has agreed to sell ammunition supplies to Europe, who can then do whatever they want with it.

Russia has had to start importing sulfur after internal production collapsed.

The Russian railway system has slipped into deficit for the first time since the pandemic, due to a collapse in freight movement.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 03 November 2025 - 08:44 PM

[Mentalist]

Zelensky saying there's only like 60 orcs spread out through the northern quarter of Kup'yans'k is... concerning.

Unless we see some drastic map reversals in the next few days, that'll be a very blatant false statement.

I'd like nothing more than to be wrong on this, but don't have a good feeling on it.

[Werthead]

The more reliable OSINT sources are being cautious, some of the more excitable ones are saying that Ukraine has regained control of the hospital district in Kupyansk and pushed Russian forces further north. Some isolated Russian units are stuck behind the lines. But even they note the situation remains precarious with Russia trying to push in from the north.

[Werthead]

​
Ukraine hit the Lukoil facility in Kstovo, Nizhny Novgorod (Russia's fifth-largest) with over 50 drones, causing some huge explosions and damaging the rectification column (again). The Sterlitamak Petrochemical Plant in Bashkortostan was also hit.

Ukraine has deployed STING, an interceptor drone. During field trials it already took down over 1,000 Shaheds.

Russia is to switch to year-around conscriptions. From January 1st, conscripts can be called up at any time, for any reason.

Ukraine has retaken the island of Velyki Kuchuhury in the Dnipro, near Styepnohirsk.

Russia's elite Rubikon drone unit had a regional headquarters in Avdiivka destroyed, killing officers and several drone operators.

Extremely heavy fighting in Pokrovsk continues. Ukraine's 79th Air Assault Brigade destroyed a building using a mine to collapse it on top off Russian occupiers. Several were eliminated, several more captured. 

Another Russian S-400 disabled in Crimea.

A Duma defence official has said that Russia should supply Kalibrs and even Oreshniks to Venezuela, so the USA will have some "surprises." Another Duma member has suggested destroying the orbital Starlink satellite network.

Quote

This story reads like a blockbuster movie script. But this is not a movie, this is real life and real people.

Ukrainian soldiers from the 1st Medical Battalion, using a ground robot, evacuated a wounded Defender from a Russian-controlled settlement.

The battalion noted that this was achieved on the seventh attempt, as the previous six robotic vehicles were destroyed. The mission lasted six hours, during which the robot covered 64 km, of which 37 km were on a damaged wheel after the vehicle hit an anti-personnel mine on its way to a wounded soldier.

While en route to the transfer point, the Russian drone dropped a munition on a vehicle, but the wounded soldier was not injured thanks to the armored capsule.

As a result of the operation, dubbed HVER, the soldier, who had remained in enemy-controlled territory for 33 days after being injured, was evacuated and provided with the necessary medical care.

​

Ukraine has blown up a large drone launch facility at Donetsk Airport. Over 1,000 Geran drones were there. Fuel storage facilities, ammunition stores and the communication centre were destroyed in a combined missile and drone strike.

Russian partisans have widened their attacks on Russian railways to include entire locomotives, with some reports that over a dozen have been destroyed in the last few months.

Lavrov has apparently been rebuked for being too harsh in shutting down negotiations with the United States.

NATO has assessed that that alliance and allied nations are now out-producing Russia in terms of artillery ammunition, even before some production lines come on-stream.

Ukrainian interceptor rocket drones are making a strong impression on attacking Shaheds, hitting them at very high speed.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 06 November 2025 - 04:32 PM

[Mentalist]

there's a single report that the current counter-strikes in Pokrovs'k are there to cover the pull out of the battered garrisons of the Myrnohrad-Pokrovs'k pocket.

And multiple statements saying UAF's committed to try to hold it. Guessing things will become clearer soon.


Meanwhile UralVagonZavod (the major tank and railway car producer in Muscovy) intends to cut 10% of its staff by february.

LukOil's Volgograd refinery halted operations after yesterday's kinetic sanctions.

3rd largest geothermal power plant in muscovy, Kostroma GRES, was hit last night. Not knocked off the grid, though. Several substations were hit as well.


Dobropillya salient's getting rolled up, Deep State showing only a small pocket of orc control remaining b/w Shakhove and Nove Shakhove. But this won't amount to much, unless UAF can push S along the Kazenny Torets, which would provide clearer supply line to Myrnohrad, the approaches to which are still clear, unlike Pokrovs'k.

This post has been edited by Mentalist: 07 November 2025 - 07:09 PM

[Werthead]

Ukraine has claimed over 25,000 Russian soldiers KIA in October, the largest one-month tally for the entire war to date. This appears credible given the hugely intense level of combat we've seen along multiple fronts. Zelensky has praised Mavic-type small drones for inflicting the largest number of casualties.

There appear to be multiple miles' worth of fibre-optic cables strung back and forth across the Pokrovsk sector. Clean-up of fibre-optic cable after the war is going to be a significant logistical effort.

Ground-based anti-drone units have now been deployed to Romania and Poland's borders with Russia and Belarus.

Kirill Grekov, Deputy Prosecutor General of the Luhansk People's Republic, has been found hanged. He was wanted by Ukraine.

Polish analysis (from Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski) that Putin may prefer a "bad war" in Ukraine to a "bad peace" in Russia afterwards, that exposes the stupidity of the decision to invade.

Some Russian commentators suggesting that former prisoners-turned-soldiers have caused big problems on returning to Russia, so those still fighting on the front should be sent to Africa after the war ends or, "face the sledgehammer."

Ukraine will be integrated into the EU's Defence Fund. This will allow European states to buy equipment from Ukraine at a reasonable cost, and will allow Ukraine to join EU research and development programmes.

Sweden is saying its first Gripens could be delivered to Ukraine in 2026, ahead of previous estimates.

[Werthead]

The Lukoil operations in western Iraq have been terminated due to the Iraqi government moving to avoid secondary sanctions.

Ukrainian forces are dummying human heat signatures using heated irons and fake uniforms. When Russian forces fire on them, Ukrainian snipers identify the attackers and eliminate them.

A Russian war blogger has said that Russia has lost at least 80-100,000 dead just to take Bakhmut and Pokrovsk (noting that fully taking Pokrovsk may take another fortnight and thousands more dead). He also says that most Russians are unaware of the true cost of the war, and he is no longer going to cover it up. He points out that Germany lost fewer dead to occupy Poland, France, Belgium, the Netherlands and Norway during WWII.

Tuapse has taken another major hit overnight.

Ukrainian analysis of the Pokrovsk front is that the intensity of Russian attacks has decreased slightly in the last 24 hours. Ukraine has reinforced its supply corridors to Pokrovsk and stabilised the Myrnohrad front. Russian attacks are continuing, with around 50,000 troops concentrated in a relatively small area (possibly the highest troop-to-area ratio in the war to date), but Ukrainian elite reinforcements have arrived and drone strikes are eliminating Russian positions.

Some analysts saying that Russia's effort could be culminating and leave Ukraine holding most of the town, but others believing that Russia will make another very large push over the weekend that will likely start dislodging Ukrainian positions in the centre of town.

Ukraine is offering to buy 27 Patriot missile batteries from the United States.

The position along the eastern Zaporizhzhia front is starting to look questionable, with some Russian units advancing to more favourable positions north-east of Hulyaipole. This town presents a significant blockage to Russian advances from the south and south-east, but if they can push to attack from the north and north-east they could have an easier time of it. Taking the town would mean opening up additional lines of attack towards Zaporizhzhia city. Getting within artillery range of the city is a major Russian goal, as having to evacuate a city of over 700,000 would present formidable logistical challenges. However, it's still quite some distance away, and the situation may yet stabilise.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 10 November 2025 - 10:31 PM

[Werthead]

Russia has transferred a significant number of troops from Kherson and the SW Zaporizhzhia front to the Pokrovsk front. This is after 30,000 troops were already transferred from Kherson during the summer, halving the number of troops Russia has available in Kherson (some new recruits were transferred to Kherson, possibly from Crimea and Russia proper, but the numbers are unknown).

Apparently hundreds of troops are arriving every couple of days, often being sent into combat with no proper reassignment. Some of the Russian troops are apparently arriving from areas that have been somewhat inactive and were a bit surprised at being thrown straight into Pokrovsk's urban combat zones.

Ukrainian counter-attacks in northern Pokrovsk continue, with the 425th Separate Assault Regiment reoporting success in retaking several Russian-held streets. The combat situation in Pokrovsk remains very intense.

Reports that Ukraine and its European allies have committed to a further three years of fighting have apparently alarmed Moscow, which is suddenly keen to re-open dialogue with Washington and Kyiv to end the war much sooner, and has already started laying the groundwork for a possible peace deal in 2026 (with Putin saying the defence budget must drop next year). Russia's economic situation makes maintaining the war at this level of intensity through 2026 alone questionable, and until 2028 implausible, whilst Ukraine's partners can continue to back it.

Interesting observation: If we overlay the German invasion of the Soviet Union in 1941 over the timeline of the Ukrainian conflict, then right now would be February 1945. The Red Army is closing in fast on Berlin and Germany is in full-scale collapse.

In this conflict, Russia is still at Pokrovsk, 41 kilometres from where they started on this front almost four years ago.

Some reports that the Ukrainian 155th Separate Mechanized Brigade has fought its way into southern Pokrovsk and is holding the line against heavy Russian assaults. Whether this means the line has been pushed back to the southern suburbs of the city or if the fighting is porous through the city is unclear.

Unconfirmed report that Ukraine has tested a "swarm drone" attack on the Donetsk Metallurgical Plant.

Ukrainian Flamingo missiles successfully hit energy targets in Oryol, Russia. This appears to confirm that Flamingo's previous targeting accuracy issues have been resolved. The thermal power plant in Oryol appears to be offline. Energy facilities in Saratov and Nizhnekamsk were also hit.

Russia has lost an Su-30SM fighter to enemy action, whilst an Su-27 crashed near Petroskoi, Karelia, NE of St. Petersburg.

The Russian radar stations in Ordzhonidkidze, Crimea have been hit by drones.

The Morskoy Neftyanoi oil terminal in Feodosia has been hit for the second time in three days, sustaining heavy damage.

For the first time, Russian forces on the front have reported shortages of fuel, leading to some mechanised attacks being abandoned or going ahead without armoured support. So far the shortages appear confined to secondary areas of the front; forces at Pokrovsk seem reasonably well-supplied.

Ukrainian analysis that Russia is using Ukraine's own tactics against it, targeting Ukrainian short-range logistics hubs to try to starve Ukrainian units at the front of ammo, fuel, food and water, and create "no go" areas behind the front. These tactics have been successful in eastern Zaporizhzhia, but less so around Pokrovsk.

Ukraine has received €6 billion in financial support from the EU today.

Rubio has admitted that further US sanctions and tariffs against Russia are weakened by the fact that there's nothing left for the US to sanction, due to limitations on the amount of Russian-US trade. He has urged EU powers to wean themselves off Russian oil ASAP.

A Ukrainian dog, Lavr, has had both his forelegs replaced by prosthetics after they were lost in a bombing. Lavr now works with Ukrainian combat veterans rehabilitating after battle, sometimes with their own replaced limbs.

Russian officials are proposing they recruit 25,000 Cubans for the front lines, and set up 4 military bases in Venezuela to deter American adventurism. The enthusiasm in Cuba for this enterprise remains unclear.

China has substantially reduced oil orders from Russia, turning to Saudi Arabia to replace them instead.

[Mentalist]

Huge explosions in Novorossiysk, as both the oil export terminal, and the anti-air unit defending the city seems to have been hit by missiles.

With Tuapse being shut down last week after a massive sea drone strike damaged piers and several tankers, if the UAF shut down Novorossiysk, then the Black Sea oil export route is dead. Which would also effectively take Kazakh oil off the global market, b/c they rely on Transneft' to transport their oil to the Black Sea where they sell it.

The orcs can't effectively ship their Western Siberian oil to the Pacific (they don't have the pipes, or the railway capacity to expand goods traffic rapidly), which means they can only export through the Baltic ports at Ust-Luga. And there's some very vulnerable pumping stations along those supply pipes...

[Werthead]

Quote

During the November 14 drone strike on Kyiv, 73-year-old Nataliya Khodemchuk was killed. She was the widow of Valery Khodemchuk, the first victim of the Chernobyl disaster. A Russian Shahed drone hit her building, leaving her with severe burns. She died the next morning in hospital.

[Werthead]

Ukraine is hammering the front line in Zaporizhzhia with their air force. The Russian advance has outrun the air coverage of their few remaining long-range AA systems, opening up the advancing forces to being bombed directly. They are not having a good time of it. Ukraine is also going after the few remaining AA systems on Ukrainian soil with a vengeance, with even Buk systems now being regularly tracked down and destroyed.

France expected to confirm Rafales for Ukraine tomorrow, though delivery might take 3-4 years.

A Russian offensive towards Kostyantynivka was thwarted with heavy losses. If Pokrovsk goes (or even if it doesn't), Kostyantynivka becomes the next city on the main fortress belt to be targeted.

The Dobropillia–Kostiantynivka highway has been fully cleared of Russian forces, through its proximity to the front line means it won't be in regular use for a while.

Ukraine cut power links to Donetsk, Makiivka, Horlivka, and Yasynuvata, leaving all four settlements in occupied Donetsk Oblast without power. The Oryol thermal plant has also been damaged.

An explosive device destroyed part of the track on the Warsaw-Lublin train line in Poland.

Russian oil prices have dropped to $36 a barrel, half the current market value. This appears to be a result of the US sanctions package.

Another S-400 missile system has been neutralised, and a Tor SAM.

As anticipated, Ukraine has signed a deal to buy 100 Rafale fighters.

Russian drones damaged the Turkish LPG tanker Orinda in the port of Izmail, directly next to the Romanian border.

[Werthead]

Ukrainian Neptune (land variant) ballistic missiles have hit targets in Voronezh, possibly marking the furthest deployment of ballistic missiles inside Russian territory so far. 

Greece has agreed to build Ukrainian sea drones in its military ports.

Russia has lost another Su-35, this time over Crimea. 

Russia has lost a lot of AA cover around Pokrovsk, allowing Ukrainian aircraft to start hitting targets in the town. One Ukrainian combat group tracked a Russian patrol inside a building and then flagged the building for destruction by air power.

Russia is believed to have mobilised around 46,000 soldiers from the occupied territories to fight for Russia. These troops tend to surrender more readily than most.

Ukraine is warning of a large-scale Russian attack on Ukrainian energy infrastructure is imminent. They have also warned that Ukraine is prepared to use its escalating missile capability to respond in kind.

NATO is working with local rail infrastructure in Germany, Poland and the Baltics to implement a mass deployment plan, allowing tens of thousands of NATO troops to be redeployed from Germany and France to the eastern border within 72 hours of a conflict starting. At the moment it would take around a month.

Those responsible for sabotaging the Polish rail line have been apprehended. They are two Ukrainian citizens with known Russian leanings, one previously lived in occupied Donetsk. Both entered Poland via Belarus.

Z-bloggers Roman Alyokhin and Tatyana Montyan have been arrested in Russia for discrediting the regime. They were notable for giving more accurate information on troop and equipment losses. Others in the Z-community have vowed to continue "telling the truth" about the conflict.

Trump has given his backing to Lindsey Graham's long-gestating Russian sanctions bill.

[Werthead]

Witkoff has developed a 28-point "peace plan" which was apparently directly created in consultation with Russian negotiator Kirill Dmitriev. The plan is merely a regurgitation of Russian maximalist demands, with full ceding of the remainder of the Donbas and Crimea, no giving up of territory in Kherson or Zaporizhzhia, removal of long-range weapons, a 50% reduction in the size of the Ukrainian army, reinstatement of Russian as an official state language and reinstatement of the primacy of the Russian Orthodox Church.

Apparently the Ukrainians have rejected the plan and replaced it with one they had previously worked out with European support. Witkoff seemed to be taken by surprise by the idea that the Ukrainians might want a say in a peace plant that impacts them, and the Europeans might want a say in what's happening on their continent.

[Mentalist]

Werthead, on 19 November 2025 - 06:49 PM, said:

Witkoff has developed a 28-point "peace plan" which was apparently directly created in consultation with Russian negotiator Kirill Dmitriev. The plan is merely a regurgitation of Russian maximalist demands, with full ceding of the remainder of the Donbas and Crimea, no giving up of territory in Kherson or Zaporizhzhia, removal of long-range weapons, a 50% reduction in the size of the Ukrainian army, reinstatement of Russian as an official state language and reinstatement of the primacy of the Russian Orthodox Church.

Apparently the Ukrainians have rejected the plan and replaced it with one they had previously worked out with European support. Witkoff seemed to be taken by surprise by the idea that the Ukrainians might want a say in a peace plant that impacts them, and the Europeans might want a say in what's happening on their continent.

Dmitriev'sbeen leaking the plan to news outlets, as if it's something that's been accepted as a roadmap, trying to give everyone heart attacks.

Other voices, though, like Michael Weiss are sharing US insider's statements that this is Witkoff's personal fantasy that isn't American formal position.

looks like another media blitz to move the negotiation goalposts by making the orcs' demands as an accepted baseline.

[Werthead]

Apparently Russia's gold reserves have shrunk from 405 tonnes to 173 tonnes over the course of the war. Russia's Central Bank has been selling it on the sly to help patch Russia's massive budget holes.

A Russian soldier filming scenes of total carnage on the ground. He claims that three Russian battalions have been wiped out in the past week. He also claims that North Koreans are on the ground in Ukraine. Where is unclear; there have been unconfirmed reports they may have been operating in the Sumy salient.

The Polish ambassador has been attacked on the streets of Moscow. He was surrounded and people tried to beat him before he was bundled away.

Russia has conducted heavy bombings on Ternopil and Zaporizhzhia, in the former targeting a block of flats with multiple missiles which killed 25 civilians.

The Ryazan refinery has been attacked again, suffering heavy drone damage.

Türkiye has reaffirmed its support for Ukrainian territorial integrity. Erdogan also dropped in a line of support for the Crimean Tatars, which caused some Russian commentators to get very annoyed.

Lindsey Graham seems to think the new peace plan is a load of BS. He'd been talking about his much-delayed sanctions bill gaining traction just a few days ago, and this blindsided him.

[Tiste Simeon]

It seems like Zelensky wants to accept the US "peace plan" unless I'm missing something?

[Werthead]

Tiste Simeon, on 21 November 2025 - 04:15 PM, said:

It seems like Zelensky wants to accept the US "peace plan" unless I'm missing something?

He absolutely does not want to, but it sounds like the US is threatening to withdraw military support and intelligence if they do not by next Thursday. Zelensky supporting this deal could spell the end for him politically. Ukrainian civil society I think has a divide on what kind of deal to support and when. European partners are aghast.

It sounds like some European partners, some in Ukraine and even some in the US are trying to pivot to getting Russia to agree to a ceasefire whilst this deal is discussed, and if Russia refuses, to ramp up US sanctions and further support for Ukraine. Trump seemed to suggest he's not averse to that.

[Garak]

Ugh. I can already hear certain relatives and coworkers going "See, Russia can't be beaten." Some in fear, others in glee.

[the broken]

Urgh... on the other hand, Trump might randomly change his mind again.

[Tiste Simeon]

Yes perhaps "wants" was wrong but he's being pushed there. I wish he could ditch the US completely but they seem to be bullying him into a corner.