[Macros]

Trumps wants to be seen to be a broker of a peace and will threaten Zelenski into it so Trump can ride rough shod over any Epstein fallout or suggestions he buried evidence.

This is text book from him

[Mentalist]

 Tiste Simeon, on 21 November 2025 - 09:38 PM, said:

Yes perhaps "wants" was wrong but he's being pushed there. I wish he could ditch the US completely but they seem to be bullying him into a corner.

UA can't ditch US, unless EU, UK, Canada, Norway, Japan, Australia, etc are ready to step in to fill the gap.
It's a tall order

Still, agreeing to yield the remainder of Donbas would finish Zelensky. He's already reeling from a massive corruption scandal, with everyone demanding he sack his head of office, Yermak. Some of his own party are calling for a wider coalition and a new government one that would become independent of Zelensky (and thus more accountable). So things aren't exactly clear RN

OTOH, putler just reiterated that the orcs captured ALL of Kup'yans'k on the 4th. So he's not exactly operating with an adequate picture of reality, either.

Difficult to say how this'll shake out. The Europeans are gonna be desperate to impact on trump AGAIN that making concessions to putler before a ceasefire will make him look like a weak loser; but whether it'll work this time is anyone's guess.

[worry]

DJT is a scorpion on the world's back.

[Werthead]

Also this deal requires Russia to withdraw from Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts in full, including Kupyansk. I consider this "improbable" in the extreme when they're still fighting there.

I think the only way Zelensky seriously considers this deal is if the situation regarding manpower, reserves and Ukrainian assessments of what it can do to hold the line or retake territory is considerably worse than what we were previously hearing. Just a couple of weeks ago, the EU and Ukraine were discussing packages to allow Ukraine to continue fighting for three more years, something that seemed to seriously alarm Russia as they don't have three more years of fighting at this tempo in them. That suggests to me that Ukraine has more fight left in it.

The question is if Trump would really withdraw US support (not great), intelligence (pretty bad) and would also refuse to sell weapons to Ukraine via the new funding programme (extremely bad, just not as bad as if it had happened a year or ago or three years ago). It seems unlikely Trump would turn down billions of dollars of purchases from Europe.

Some suggesting that Rubio is pretty narked off about this plan, which circumvented his office, and he might be bending Trump's ear on it.

[the broken]

The only reason to take the deal would be if Ukraine was about to collapse anyway, which doesn't seem to be the case. They can fight on without the US if need be (easy for me to say, of course)

[Werthead]

Ukraine's position could be better but it also could be a lot worse. The question in play here are if the US will refuse to provide weapons and equipment in return for cold hard money. If the US continues to provide Patriot missiles, air-to-air missiles, ATACMS, HIMARS ammo etc in return for European cash, that situation can be borne, even if US intelligence is cut off. If not, the situation could be a lot more difficult. Ukraine could just run out of the Patriot missiles it needs to target Russian hypersonic and ballistic missiles, and some of the parts it needs to keep its F-16s flying.

French Intelligence's warning this week was stark: if Russia wins a bad peace deal in Ukraine, they estimate a general war between European states and Russia could begin in less than 3 years.

[Werthead]

The Ukrainian delegation talking to Rubio and Witkoff seemed a bit confused in reporting that talks with them had gone much better than expected (to the point they all went out and had a friendly dinner afterwards) and apparently the 28-point plan is more of a basis for discussions than a final ultimatum (despite Trump saying that). There's also more messaging that acceptance of the 28-point plan is also contingent on Russia accepting it by Thursday. Russian state television has said they will either not accept it, but may accept it but will not abide by it, so there's that. 

[Mentalist]

The initial plan has been reduced to a 19-point framework that requires more work. The Thanksgiving deadline's been scrapped.

A few days ago, UAF hit one of the oldest geothermap plants in muscovy- the Shaturo DRES. It was built in the 20s, to run on peat. it's part of Moscow Oblast's electric grid. They had to bring in 10 mobile generation stations to cover for it.

The strike is significant, b/c this is Moscow oblast, where anti-air is supposed to be the tightest; yet, there's ample footage of drones flying in, with only machine gun fire trying to intercept them.

The see-saw of "negotiations" boosted the ruble. Which is good, b/c less petro dollars when the ruble is strong, meaning, bigger budget deficit.

The orcs continue to try to envelop Hulyaipole in SE Zaporizhya Oblast'. There's also been an increase in activity in NE Kharkiv, where they were able to connect their earlier breach towards Velyky Burluk to their bridgehead W of the Oskil. Altogether, the orcs now control a strip about 28 km wide from the Oskil along the border. It's only 4-6 km deep, but still worrisome.

In Pokrovs'k, the 7th Airborne corps is trying to keep the orcs behind the railway out of the northern part of the city, but it's a difficult process.

[Werthead]

Russia has managed to blow up one of its own apartment buildings in Novorossiysk with a mis-fired anti-aircraft missile, which flew out of control.

Ukraine has also hit the Taganrog airfield, destroying an experimental Russian AWACS aircraft equipped with a laser.

A large number of balloons carrying contraband have crossed into Lithuanian airspace from Belarus.