[Mentalist]

Most realistic scenario I can envision would be a UA counteroffer to swap the Donetsk fortress belt for the bulk of the Surovikin Line in the S (including Enerhodar and the ZNPP), so that UAF (and any Western troops that might get stationed there) have an easy road to Crimea, to account for the vulnerability in the E.
That sort of a stalemate is the only way I can envision a viable Cold War2 scenario emerging out of all this.

This post has been edited by Mentalist: 18 August 2025 - 10:55 PM

[Werthead]

Several Russian regions reporting fuel shortages. In Primosky Krai there are kilometres-long car queues for refuelling, whilst in Zabaikalsky fuel can only be bought with special coupons. There's a fuel run in Crimea, with petrol stations running low, but also some fear from people about going to the pumps in case there's a drone strike.

Lavrov has suggested that a Ukrainian security assistance force with NATO involvement could be palatable if other countries also joined in, such as China.

A Russian S-300 AA battery has been eliminated near Zaporizhzhia after it was brought dangerously close to the front.

An expensive Russia Kasta-2E2 radar system was destroyed in Crimea.

Budapest has been floated as a Zelensky-Putin meeting place by the Trump team, but Donald Tusk has suggested that a "second Budapest memorandum" might be not a good idea. "Maybe I'm superstitious."

Russian forces have advanced into the centre of Zarichne on the Lyman front but met heavy Ukrainian resistance from the 63rd Mechanized Brigade, which drove the Russians back in disarray. The town has not been fully liberated, and Russian forces remain embedded in the outskirts.

The Azov Brigade and the 92nd Mechanized Brigade are continuing to clear Russian forces on the north-east Pokrovsk front, rolling them back past their start positions.

The Ukrainian military has donated EW systems to Ukrainian farmers in Kherson. They use the EW systems to down the drones, rewire their control systems and then send them "home." Apparently several Russian positions were eliminated after being confused at seeing their own drones flying back towards them. The distances involved on this front and having to fly over the wide Dnipro mouth make using fibre-optic drones less viable.

Russian Z-bloggers discussing the economic situation in Russia, believing that creative measures taken by the central bank will run out of road in the autumn, or early 2026 at the latest. They believe several major enterprises are in "a pre-bankruptcy state."

Ukrainian news sources are suggesting that Trump's relatively warm welcome to Zelensky may have been helped by a special gift: a golf putter made by Kostiantyn Kartavtsev, a Ukrainian soldier who lose a leg whilst rescuing a comrade from the battlefield early in the invasion. He took up golf afterwards to help with his rehabilitation. The putter is engraved with the words "Let's putt peace together!" Trump then looked up some videos of Kostiantyn and congratulated him on having a good swing.

[Mentalist]

Z-heads are panicking that UAF started launching its new Flamingo cruise missiles.
we'll have to see if anything actually comes from this.