[Mentalist]

Volgograd refinery had its processing unit hit, taking it out of operation.

That is the fifth consecutive successful strike on an orc refinery since UA restarted its kinetic oil sanctions program.

[Werthead]

Ukraine has launched a long-range drone attack on the port of Olya near Astrakhan on the Caspian Sea. The Olya 4 cargo ship was sunk in port, apparently still laden with drone components and supplies from Iran.

Bulgaria has transferred three Mi-4 attack helicopters to Ukraine.

An ammunition plant in Ryazan has been damaged in a drone strike. The Syzran oil plant is also ablaze after several attacks. Despite months of respite from Ukrainian attacks for the Russian fire service to replenish its supplies to deal with chemical fires, it appears they haven't bothered and in some of these places fires are being allowed to burn themselves out, causing vastly more damage in the process.

Russia has modified Iskander and KN-23 missiles to undertake mid-course evasive maneuvers, which has reduced the effectiveness of interceptors. Patriot can compensate but I don't think Ukraine has the upgraded versions and in the current situation, it's unclear if they can get them.

Massive protests in Anchorage with the Ukrainian flag being proudly flown.

Lavrov has arrived in Alaska in a T-shirt that says "USSR." Russian media, propagandists and bloggers accompanying the delegation have not been given hotel rooms and instead will have to stay in overspill rooms in a business centre.

During the latest prisoner swap, one Ukrainian POW who has been in Russian captivity for nine years since the original Russian incursion in the Donbas has returned home.

[Mentalist]

Worth noting, KN-23 are North Korean ballistic missiles. So DPRK is currently getting modified missile tech through this war, that can only be dealt with by modified Patriots. That has implications for South Korea (you'd think)

Videos from Syzran' refinery suggest the primary processing unit was hit. Which is good, b/c it should shut it down.

[Werthead]

This was the dumbest thing I've ever seen an American President do, and I remember a lot of the Reagan years and was studying American politics during the Lewinsky scandal.

Fly for many hours to Alaska, get Putin to show up, Putin just clearly lectured him for hours, made no commitments and then headed off with a ton of photos of the American President kowtowing to him. The press, including a lot sympathetic but not totally enslaved to Trump, are rinsing the absolute hell out of him. Zelensky is flying over on Monday and there's going to be bugger all to really discuss.

The irony in here is that Putin is showing some signs of moving away from his most maximalist demands, but only very slightly, and he believes time is on his side, as long as the economy can hold up.

[Mentalist]

And now we got multiple reports that trump is conveying putler's position "UA needs to abandon the remainder of Donets'k Oblast', and we'll stop attacking on the other frontlines and give a written promise not to do it again"


And this is what trump will be selling Ze in the Oval Office on Monday.

[the broken]

I think the best we could hope for from this was nothing, so that's on track.

[Tsundoku]

I personally thought that Piers Morgan was - accidentally - very, very prescient:

https://www.thedaily...e-putin-summit/

[Werthead]

The current idea circulating - Ukraine withdraws from Donetsk in return for a freezing of the line elsewhere - is a clear non-starter.

Due to confusion from Witkoff (remember this is why random golfing buddies do not make ideal diplomats), Kyiv thought the offer was for Ukraine to withdraw from Donetsk and recognising Crimea as Russian in return for Russia withdrawing from Kherson and Zaporizhzhia in full. That deal they were at least willing to think about, even if it sounded implausible and they'd need to really sell it. But getting all of the other two oblasts back in return for giving Russia something they already have (Crimea and Luhansk) and 30% of Donetsk is not the worst idea that Russia could have put forwards in the world (and obviously there would be no formal recognition of this). It would be a very bitter pill to swallow but you can see there is something there that people might go for.

Withdrawing from Donetsk and merely freezing the current front line in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia is insane. That gives Russia far too much in return for nothing, not to mention it surrenders a lot of the rare earth minerals that the USA negotiated access to earlier this year. The fortress belt in Donetsk is extremely heavily-fortified and, depending on who you believe, it would take Russia several years to take that territory in battle, at a horrendous cost of lives and material. Giving it to Russia for free in return for nothing substantive is the very definition of absurd. It also allows Russia to then springboard into much easier territory when it wants to have another go, and on this deal, they 100% would want to have another go. Putin's written guarantee is worthless, a security guarantee is needed.

This post has been edited by Werthead: Yesterday, 12:47 AM

[Werthead]

It feels like there's been a big shift in the last few hours.

The headline news is that United States has agreed to join European nations in providing Ukraine with an Article 5-style military guarantee to Ukraine: if Russia attacks Ukraine, European powers and the United States will directly militarily intervene on Ukraine's side. Putin allegedly agreed to this. Essentially it's "NATO without NATO."

Zelensky is flying to Washington tomorrow for talks with Trump, but he won't be going alone. In an unprecedented move, the leaders of Britain, France, Germany, Italy, Finland, NATO and the EU will fly with him. France, Britain and possibly Germany are once again talking about a "reassurance force", possibly of around 10,000 troops to start with, maybe rising to 30,000 later on, to be deployed to Ukraine when hostilities cease. This force will engage in training and take over rear echelon duties, freeing up Ukrainian forces to reinforce the front line. Apparently Putin is now more open to this then a few months ago, when he flatly said any such forces could be targets for Russian attacks. We can also assume that there'd be fighter aircraft from European countries in the skies over Ukraine as well.

Ukrainian politicians are still not buying the idea of giving up the Donbas, and opposition politicians warn this could be seen as a major betrayal of the Ukrainian people. However, they are very carefully analysing opinion polls: whilst Ukrainian people are willing to fight on, a lot of people are tired after three and a half years of war. They are also looking at the potential economic benefits of the war ending, Ukraine shifting to being a weapons supplier for European nations (particularly of drones) which would allow them to effectively remain on a war footing (and pay for it), and the economic rebound of several million Ukrainian refugees returning home.

Russia settling for the Donbas and the current front line in Zaporizhzhia and Kherson is seen as a bit too good to be true though, and it's unclear if Putin can sell that to the hardliners as anything other than a retreat on his previous minimum requirements for ending the conflict.

[Mentalist]

Losing the fortress belt would be an invitation for a new war. Ukrainians have 0 trust for Moscow, and there's serious questions as to how willing the West would be to get involved in a real war.

I don't think Zelensky can sell that. But I could be wrong, I'm not living there.

This post has been edited by Mentalist: Yesterday, 07:47 PM

[Macros]

Ugh, any deal that comes from this will be heralded by Trump as entirely his doing.

[Macros]

Ugh, any deal that comes from this will be heralded by Trump as entirely his doing.

[Werthead]

I think there's zero trust for Trump to keep his word either if stuff did start to fly. We also have to consider what happens if extremist governments gain power in other parts of Europe, that could isolate Ukraine very quickly.

On the flipside, Ukraine has been unable to gain the initiative on the battlefield to regain large amounts of territory, especially in the Donbas where the Russian defenses are extremely thick and multi-layered (and, in some cases, have been there for a decade or more). Without a plausible way for Ukraine to regain territory militarily, the best-case scenario becomes a major economic collapse in Russia, with troops leaving Ukraine to fight in Moscow or Tatarstan or Dagestan or whatever, or even just because they haven't been paid, and Ukraine can regain its full borders. The alternative is Ukraine continuing to force Russia to burn through men and equipment until the war cannot be sustained, but at the current rates that could easily take many years (especially as Russia is relying less on the equipment it's run out of, like Soviet-era tanks, and more on cheap drones, and could draft in more North Korean troops). These outcomes are not impossible, but they could happen tomorrow or in another three years' time. It's not something Ukraine can rely on.

A strong counter-proposal is to simply have a ceasefire on the current lines, and Ukraine retains control of a third of Donetsk. It leaves Kursk and Belgorod in return for Russia leaving Kharkiv and Sumy, that's a straight deal. No legal Ukrainian recognition of the new borders. If Russia wants the rest of Donetsk it would have to give up something much more significant, Witkoff's suggestion of all Zaporizhzhia and Kherson is probably the minimum that Ukraine would consider. But I don't think that's sellable, Putin would be lynched by his own hardliners.

Let's see what tomorrow brings.

[Briar King]

Werthead, on 16 August 2025 - 02:59 PM, said:

This was the dumbest thing I've ever seen an American President do, and I remember a lot of the Reagan years and was studying American politics during the Lewinsky scandal.

Fly for many hours to Alaska, get Putin to show up, Putin just clearly lectured him for hours, made no commitments and then headed off with a ton of photos of the American President kowtowing to him. The press, including a lot sympathetic but not totally enslaved to Trump, are rinsing the absolute hell out of him. Zelensky is flying over on Monday and there's going to be bugger all to really discuss.

The irony in here is that Putin is showing some signs of moving away from his most maximalist demands, but only very slightly, and he believes time is on his side, as long as the economy can hold up.

That was the dumbest thing you’ve ever seen a president do huh? Okey dokey I guess. That’s not an attack just with in your overall description of the Regan yrs to the most public blowjob in human history is very open. When I think of dumb of 41’s Read me lips or looking at his watch in a debate or an entire two weeks in August of 2021, looking at a watch during a ceremony for dead soldiers or Don’t Don’t Don’t, minor incursion blah blah.

I don’t get all this crowing going on about this meeting. We shouldn’t even be having this meeting but we are and like it or not we have to let the asshole have some face saving for his home people no matter how teeth grinding it is for us to endure. I would have let him go 1st also so I could speak last and I also would not have let the press bombard with the questions and risk angering that dickhead. Just my two cents though.

I got a kick out of his attempt to get Lavrov be the next to go flying out a window.

This post has been edited by Briar King: Today, 01:29 AM

[Macros]

I mean calling dead soldiers losers was pretty dumb too...

But this thread is not about American politics

[Briar King]

What time is Zelenskyy and other leaders supposed to be at the White House? I need to set my alarm so I can get up early again like I did for Alaska summit. I can’t find a time on any search as of yet.

Ah finally found it thankfully! Won’t get much sleep but that’s ok. Way to important a situation to miss.

This post has been edited by Briar King: Today, 07:09 AM

[Werthead]

The Trump and Zelensky meeting went fairly unremarkably (which might be considered a win versus their last meeting), but not a lot of detail. Trump's bullishness about a deal at any (Ukrainian) cost seems to have been thrown off by the entire European leadership showing up in one go to point out that this is also about the wider security of Europe, and ensuring that Russia does not simply reconstitute and either have a go again in Ukraine, or invade the Baltic States or Poland. Trump doesn't seem to have considered any of that.

Russia's reaction is that the leaders may have thrown a spanner in their works and are warning European leaders not to interfere, and any reaction force or peacekeepers "from NATO countries" (so not just NATO itself) on Ukrainian soil would not be acceptable, contrary to some reports from the weekend.

At the same time Ukraine released test-footage of its domestically-produced Flamingo cruise missile, which can travel over 3,000 km at Mach 0.7, has an EW-resistant guidance system and is already in mass production.

Meanwhile, Russian forces assaulted a Ukrainian position using an APC flying the Russian and American flags. The APC didn't get very far.

This post has been edited by Werthead: Today, 06:34 PM