[Cause]

What is the Ukrainian position of Zelenskyy. I was under the impression he was seen positively?

[Werthead]

Cause, on 20 February 2025 - 08:30 PM, said:

What is the Ukrainian position of Zelenskyy. I was under the impression he was seen positively?

His approval ratings have traditionally been high, but they have slackened off over the past year or so. The general feeling seems to be that he hasn't gotten as good a grip on corruption as he could have, and some of his appointments and decisions have been a bit questionable. But there's also a lot of respect for how he's handled the war in general relations with other countries, PR, positive messaging and so on. There's also a lot of feeling that he's President in an incredibly difficult, trying position, facing down incredible odds, and anybody in that position can make mistakes. There's probably few other jobs in the world right now that are more stressful, more difficult and more challenging.

That's my perspective as an outsider, Mentalist can probably give us a better look from the Ukrainian POV.

His approval ratings (his real, actual ones) seem to be around 57% at the moment (far higher than Trump's) and is actually up from the 52% he ended 2024 on. But way down on ratings of about 77% at the end of 2023.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 21 February 2025 - 12:04 AM

[Mentalist]

Cause, on 20 February 2025 - 08:30 PM, said:

What is the Ukrainian position of Zelenskyy. I was under the impression he was seen positively?

There's a fair amount of (deserved) criticism. The military institutions are not being reformed as quickly as possible. Most of the major battlefield losses were due to incompetent, inflexible commanders being appointed because they are "part of the hierarchy", and Zelensky's appointees have not been able to address this adequately- in part because they are not given free reign by the Office of the President, which maintains its own client networks and informal obligations. There is a certain degree of ongoing corruption and profiteering by government officials. At the same time, Zelensky corralled all major media into a single "news marathon" and continues to try to monopolize public opinion, excluding his (anti-Russian) political rivals and their media. Certain odious people responsible for maintaining informal control of courts and law enforcement go back to Yanukovych's times, but Zelensky continues to use their services, despite them having a reputation of working with openly pro-Russian regimes in the past. He's been trying to obstruct independent journalists.
The Office of the President is continuously attempting to subjugate the supposedly independent anti-corruption agencies that were created in compliance with obligations to move towards EU standards.

All in all, Zelensky is not without certain autocratic tendencies. There is a reason why his rating in the winter of 2021-2022 was below 20%. Those issues and grievances have not gone anywhere. At the same time, Ukraine has a strong, vibrant (and now largely well-armed) civic society, so the prospect of actual tyranny is as unlikely as ever. There is also a strong consensus, even among his political rivals (all of them who aren't outspoken Muscovite apologists, and we don't take them seriously, because see above: a lot of armed civilians that really don't like Muscovy) that elections prior to conclusion of the war would only serve to sever national unity and would be counter-productive.

And the main thing is, at the moment, the only viable political alternative to Zelensky would be someone with direct ties to the military, b/c the Ukrainian Armed Forces are BY FAR the most trusted institution in the country. Which is why the polls are saying if Zaluzhny (the former Commander in Chief) will run against Zelensky, he will win in Round 1, 60 to 30. Considerng Zaluzhny was calling for a total mobilization, reclamation of all occupied territory and establishing a "demilitarized zone" within Muscovy 100-200 km deep from the border, I don't think Trump and Putler will be particularly happy with that election outcome.

[Tiste Simeon]

 Mentalist, on 21 February 2025 - 12:08 AM, said:

... I don't think Trump and Putler will be particularly happy with that election outcome.

YOU MUST HAVE ELECTIONS!

Wait, no not like that...

[Werthead]

The 71st Jaegar Brigade has repelled a massive attack on the Pokrovsk front, taking out multiple Russian tanks and armoured vehicles (no battle donkeys were harmed in the production of this futile maneuver, we think). Russian forces were also destroyed near Vyshneve by a "massive" drone attack as they tried to reach the front.

The 37th Marine Brigade also repulsed a mechanized attack on Ulakly in the Kurakhove sector, destroying 10 vehicles. Russian infantry have managed to enter the settlement. This seems to dispute earlier claims of Ulakly completely falling to the Russians yesterday. Ukrainian forces are engaging Russian forces along that front, including near Kostiantynopil.

A Ukrainian counter-attack in Chasiv Yar saw Russian forces cut off from escape and trapped in a basement with the stairs destroyed by artillery fire. The trapped Russians have been trying to dig a tunnel for days, but they lack the tools needed to do so. They still have communications and have asked for help, which has not been forthcoming.

A Russian attack near Sudzha, Kursk, was defeated by Ukrainian fibre-optic drones, which destroyed the Russian forces despite their EW systems. Russian forces in Kursk continue to heap abuse on Chechen/Kadyrovite units, whom they say run at the first sign of trouble and often refuse to fight unless cornered.

The Novovelychkovskaya pumping station in Kuban has been destroyed, disrupting oil transport in the region. Ukraine has been running out of undamaged refineries to hit, so have switched to pumping stations. They are usually totally undefended, and destroying one will stop Russia from moving oil supplies around, so is as effective as disabling refineries themselves.

The EU is preparing a €20 billion interim aid package for Ukraine, despite Hungarian opposition.

Italy has transferred a large proportion of its B1 Centauro tank destroyers to Ukraine.

The Kiel Institute has said that a US withdrawal from the European theatre would require Europe to commit 300,000 new troops to the defence of the continent, along with 1,400 new tanks, 2,000 new infantry fighting vehicles and 700 artillery pieces. This is more combat power than currently exists in the British, French, German and Italian militaries combined. Their analysis is that a lot of this could be avoided by ensuring a positive Ukrainian outcome in the war and its formidable military remaining on the flanks of Russia, forcing any future Russia military adventurism to have to choose between attacking Ukraine, Europe or both simultaneously.

The mineral deal is back on the agenda, with the US and Ukraine discussing a possibly amended version today.

The US may table a UN Security Council resolution on ending the war next week. Britain and France may be put in the difficult position of vetoing it if the resolution is bad for Ukraine.

Russian Il-20M and IL-78 aircraft were intercepted by French Rafales over the coast of Latvia.

USAF F-35s have intercepted two Russian Tu-95 Bear bombers, escorted by Su-35 Flankers, inside Alaska's air defence zone.

The Russians constructed fairly elaborate nets over the roads they are using to supply the Pokrovsk front. The netting was ineffective, and several Russian vehicles were destroyed by Ukrainian drones. Russia is now using elaborate smokescreens instead, which seems to be causing problems for the Russian supply trucks trying to drive through them.

Girkin has said he does not believe there is any reason for Ukraine to yield to American demands at present: he believes Ukraine is now a match, if not superior, for Russian forces in terms of equipment and skill in using it, despite Russian manpower advantages. He also claims some Storm Units have been disbanded after the ex-prisoners committed crimes to be sent back to jail rather than the front. Stories of the front have circulated widely in Russian jails, almost halting recruitment of prisoners to these units.

Ukraine has said it has figured out how to launch "drone swarm" attacks on a large scale, and plans to test the system in the coming weeks. Ukraine has also demonstrated the Trembita cruise missile, with a range of 500km and capable of speeds up to 400km/h. The Bulava strike drone, a fast-moving drone with a 60km range, was also demonstrated.

This post has been edited by Werthead: Yesterday, 02:52 PM

[Lady Bliss]

Whatever Ukraine does, a mineral deal should be off the table.

[Mentalist]

It can exist. As long as it outlines what the US is obligated to do to defend this invested interest.


There's a lot of positives in a potential investment deal, as long as it's done properly. And apparently that's what Kyiv is bargaining for right now.

At the same time, UAF is exploring options as to what to do if StarLink goes down. Worth noting that the Kursk op doesn't have StarLink coverage, so we are currently using alternatives to ensure comms.

3 areas where US support is most crucial are Starlink, intel data and anti-air munitions. Other things can be relatively painlessly mitigated, as long as we can retain European support.

Because of this, right now Kyiv can still bargain.

[Abyss]

The implications behind 'with Ukraine in place we don't need the US' are pretty wild.

[Chance]

Werthead, on 22 February 2025 - 02:50 PM, said:

The Kiel Institute has said that a US withdrawal from the European theatre would require Europe to commit 300,000 new troops to the defence of the continent, along with 1,400 new tanks, 2,000 new infantry fighting vehicles and 700 artillery pieces. This is more combat power than currently exists in the British, French, German and Italian militaries combined. Their analysis is that a lot of this could be avoided by ensuring a positive Ukrainian outcome in the war and its formidable military remaining on the flanks of Russia, forcing any future Russia military adventurism to have to choose between attacking Ukraine, Europe or both simultaneously.

Anyone know what these alarmist people are basing this on? The joint military size of Nato European nations is probably significantly larger than the russian army by the numbers I can see and if you add Ukraine the size is completely overwhelming on paper at least. If you start adding say very likely mobilization in finland, baltics and poland it just becomes silly. But I keep seeing EU is lost unless we double the size of our militaries which seems absurd.

Did some checking on the figures and it seems most of these alarmist use full employment numbers from wartime Russia but the lowest possible peacetime numbers for Nato armies which seems a bit dishonest or possibly they have stock in defense companies. The swedish army is 25ish thousands during peace which is the number of active contract soldiers when it in reality a few days after a war is declared it will be 65 000. Which seems even more extreme for some other cases like Finland which should go from 24 000 to 280 000 during war. Poland should go from 220 000 to above 800 000...yeah these alarmists are crazy or biased.

This post has been edited by Chance: Today, 12:34 PM

[Mentalist]

Chance, on 23 February 2025 - 11:03 AM, said:

Werthead, on 22 February 2025 - 02:50 PM, said:

The Kiel Institute has said that a US withdrawal from the European theatre would require Europe to commit 300,000 new troops to the defence of the continent, along with 1,400 new tanks, 2,000 new infantry fighting vehicles and 700 artillery pieces. This is more combat power than currently exists in the British, French, German and Italian militaries combined. Their analysis is that a lot of this could be avoided by ensuring a positive Ukrainian outcome in the war and its formidable military remaining on the flanks of Russia, forcing any future Russia military adventurism to have to choose between attacking Ukraine, Europe or both simultaneously.

Anyone know what these alarmist people are basing this on? The joint military size of Nato European nations is probably significantly larger than the russian army by the numbers I can see and if you add Ukraine the size is completely overwhelming on paper at least. If you start adding say very likely mobilization in finland, baltics and poland it just becomes silly. But I keep seeing EU is lost unless we double the size of our militaries which seems absurd.

Did some checking on the figures and it seems most of these alarmist use full employment numbers from wartime Russia but the lowest possible peacetime numbers for Nato armies which seems a bit dishonest or possibly they have stock in defense companies. The swedish army is 25ish thousands during peace which is the number of active contract soldiers when it in reality a few days after a war is declared it will be 65 000. Which seems even more extreme for some other cases like Finland which should go from 24 000 to 280 000 during war. Poland should go from 220 000 to above 800 000...yeah these alarmists are crazy or biased.

The alarmism is due in large part due to the fact that multiple surveys show that Europeans (especially West Europeans) are very.... ummm... reluctant to go and protect their national interests when the time comes. Especially when the question is "should we let Putler have some far-flung tiny piece of land (like the Baltic States) that "technically was always Russian anyways"?

Yeah, I have no doubts the Finns will get their 800k men within a week, as would Poland. Will the UK, France and Germany actually be able to call up the manpower they need? That's the big question. And Western Europe's main power in navy and airforce. And as we have seen, airforce is not going to the be-all, end all it was in the Middle East, or Serbia (which are the 2 wars most Westerners are basing their projections from). It's going to be about deadly, costly, infantry slogs. Drones are a gamechanger, but the West hasn't caught up with that yet. Both Ukrainian and orc units have drones as basically standard kit- both recon and FPVs to supplement artillery. That's not something the Western armies comprehend as of yet. See also: North Korean troops that are currently dying in droves, but the survivors will come home and teach thousands as to what actual modern warfare is like, which would give them a huge boost.

In that sense, Europe can't afford to lose Ukraine, simply because no one else has this kind of battlefield expereince. Not to mention that it currently has more tanks, armour and artillery than all of EU compbined.

This post has been edited by Mentalist: Today, 05:21 PM

[Garak]

Heck there are Eastern Europeans who don't want to give Ukraine aid because they see it as "someone else's war" and they don't want to go fight it. I keep pointing out to them that the it hasn't been a century yet from the last nutjob who said "I want this land because it was ours at one point and this one because we have people here and then I'll stop, promise." And we all know how that ended.

In the last few months we've had a Neo-Legionary (basically our Neo-Nazis) movement spring up out of the shadows and a presidential candidate talk about how the founder of said movement and the guy who sided our country with Hitler were patriots and martyrs. I mean what the ever living hell. And yes promoting said movement is illegal here. And yet.

This post has been edited by Garak: Today, 06:24 PM

[Lady Bliss]

Garak, on 23 February 2025 - 06:21 PM, said:

Heck there are Eastern Europeans who don't want to give Ukraine aid because they see it as "someone else's war" and they don't want to go fight it. I keep pointing out to them that the it hasn't been a century yet from the last nutjob who said "I want this land because it was ours at one point and this one because we have people here and then I'll stop, promise." And we all know how that ended.

In the last few months we've had a Neo-Legionary (basically our Neo-Nazis) movement spring up out of the shadows and a presidential candidate talk about how the founder of said movement and the guy who sided our country with Hitler were patriots and martyrs. I mean what the ever living hell. And yes promoting said movement is illegal here. And yet.

I’m in the US and I’m afraid to post political opinions anywhere but here because I’m afraid it will cost me jobs and could potentially affect my kids careers as well. Freedom of speech? I don’t th

[the broken]

Quote

The Kiel Institute has said that a US withdrawal from the European theatre would require Europe to commit 300,000 new troops to the defence of the continent, along with 1,400 new tanks, 2,000 new infantry fighting vehicles and 700 artillery pieces. This is more combat power than currently exists in the British, French, German and Italian militaries combined. Their analysis is that a lot of this could be avoided by ensuring a positive Ukrainian outcome in the war and its formidable military remaining on the flanks of Russia, forcing any future Russia military adventurism to have to choose between attacking Ukraine, Europe or both simultaneously.<br style="color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 13px; background-color: rgb(34, 34, 34);">

"Currently."

Of course a country in full war economy is more militarised than countries that have not gone full war economy. If they actually go to war, that changes.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

And if the possibility (remote as it now might seem) of not just North Korea's but China's and Trump's militaries joining the war on Russia's behalf no longer seems so impossible... by how much more would European NATO members have to expand their militaries? Presumably the best strategy for Trump and Putin would be to temporarily pretend they've become enemies and that Trump is sending the US military to "help defend" Europe (the Trojan Trump...). Wonder if Xi could get away with that too ("I'm from the government---of China---and I'm here to help you defend (your) democracies!").

Of course I don't think Trump would have an easy time instituting a draft to attack European democracies, and exactly how many competent military personnel he could rustle up and cultivate to help Putin conquer Europe is an open question. By the time Trump's finished purging the military much of it may have been replaced by robots (beyond the drones and drone-swarms and robot dogs and giant robo-wyrms) anyway.

Perhaps Canada would use that opportunity to invade the United States again?... As a NATO member they'd be obligated to do something. But this time please do try to make sure that the president is in the White House when you burn it down.