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Werthead, on 08 February 2025 - 10:54 PM, said:
Ukraine has recaptured Kotlyne and is attacking Pischane to the SW of Pokrovsk. There were on the western-most hook of the Russian attempt to encircle Pokrovsk.
Ukraine has reportedly fully captured Cherkasskaya Konopelka and Fanaseevka in Kursk Oblast and is fighting south of Makhnovka to confirm control of the Psel River. I agree, this is a tactical, opportunistic attack, but one that has delivered significant success to the Ukrainian military and inflicted heavy casualties on the Russian forces.
Zelensky has now confirmed that Ukraine carried out an attack on a Russian-North Korean command post in Kursk and apparently hit it with HIMARS during a high-ranking staff meeting. More than 20 of the highest-ranked Russian and North Korean officers in Kursk were present and all killed, with dozens more injured. This plunged the command structure into chaos. They were also exploiting confusion caused by the NK withdrawal from that front and Russian units had not fully worked out where they were supposed to be to replace them.
West of Nikolski, Kursk, Russian and North Korean troops launched a single massed attack on the SW edge of Ukrainian-held territory. The attack was very substantial, lasting 16 hours of continuous fire. However, the Russian and NK forces lacked armour, drone support or jammers. Ukrainian forces, drones and aviation engaged the Russian and NK forces and destroyed them with "extremely heavy" enemy casualties. The scale of the defeat is unclear, but both Russian and NK forces were using ordinary, unarmoured civilian vehicles to try to breach the Ukrainian lines. Most of these vehicles were destroyed hundreds of metres before they reached Ukrainian positions. This also confirms the return to action of NK troops on the front.
Russian media reporting that they have almost "run out of" NK troops but a "fresh batch" should arrive next month.
Ukraine has continued a moderate counter-offensive against Toretsk, launching a deep-penetration raid through the town (Russia captured most of the town some weeks ago) that threw Russian forces into confusion. Russia had misjudged the Ukrainian positions, so two Su-25s sent to support troops came under MANPAD fire; one of the Su-25s was shot down and the other forced to retreat. The Mi-8 helicopter sent to retrieve the pilot came under sustained fire and EW attack and was damaged before retreating, possibly leaving several crewmembers on the ground. The fate of the Su-25 pilot remains unclear.
A Russian armoured push on Vysnheve, on the Pokrovsk front, has been defeated by the 3rd Assault Brigade.
A Russian tank in Selydove was apparently "spooked" by a mistaken drone sighting, with the driver turning the tank around, driving over and crushing a civilian vehicle being driven by Russian troops with unconfirmed casualties, and haphazardly drove off (I've seen confused reporting that 200 Russians were killed, but though the transport situation remains critical, even the Russians can't fit 200 soldiers in a four-door car; "200" is a common Russian code-number for KIA). This was just after a large drone attack on the HQ of the Russian 35th Brigade, located nearby.
Lithuania, Estonia and Latvia have disconnected from the Russian power grid in favour of interconnects with the European grid via Poland and undersea power cables. The move leaves Kaliningrad able to be cut off from the Russian power grid with ease. In the even of war, the exclave could simply have its entire power supply shut off almost immediately.
Ukraine plans to increase its testing of laser AA systems on the front, believing that Shahed drones are particularly susceptible due to inferior armour.
Additional economic analysis: in recent months India and Turkey have decreased their purchase of Russian cole by almost 40%. China has decreased its import by 7% in raw amounts but 25% in terms of money. Currency reserves in Russian banks are at a 16-year low. $52 billion has been taken out of the Russian economy by those Russians fleeing abroad. Business has removed a further $44 billion. Production of fertilizer machinery in Russia has decreased by 61% in a year. Goldman Sachs has completed its full withdrawal from the Russian market, whilst ING (the largest Dutch bank) is close to completing the process. Turkish banks have completed the process of blocking third-party Turkish payment cards, which Russians had been stockpiling to get around sanctions. Russia has also been pushing the idea of a "BRICS currency" but has failed to convince the other countries of the value of doing so. Massive lay-offs are also underway in the coal industry in Kemerovo. Russia has also moved some 30% of its printing and publishing business to China, as the industry can no longer refresh old equipment due to sanctions.
Ukraine has reportedly fully captured Cherkasskaya Konopelka and Fanaseevka in Kursk Oblast and is fighting south of Makhnovka to confirm control of the Psel River. I agree, this is a tactical, opportunistic attack, but one that has delivered significant success to the Ukrainian military and inflicted heavy casualties on the Russian forces.
Zelensky has now confirmed that Ukraine carried out an attack on a Russian-North Korean command post in Kursk and apparently hit it with HIMARS during a high-ranking staff meeting. More than 20 of the highest-ranked Russian and North Korean officers in Kursk were present and all killed, with dozens more injured. This plunged the command structure into chaos. They were also exploiting confusion caused by the NK withdrawal from that front and Russian units had not fully worked out where they were supposed to be to replace them.
West of Nikolski, Kursk, Russian and North Korean troops launched a single massed attack on the SW edge of Ukrainian-held territory. The attack was very substantial, lasting 16 hours of continuous fire. However, the Russian and NK forces lacked armour, drone support or jammers. Ukrainian forces, drones and aviation engaged the Russian and NK forces and destroyed them with "extremely heavy" enemy casualties. The scale of the defeat is unclear, but both Russian and NK forces were using ordinary, unarmoured civilian vehicles to try to breach the Ukrainian lines. Most of these vehicles were destroyed hundreds of metres before they reached Ukrainian positions. This also confirms the return to action of NK troops on the front.
Russian media reporting that they have almost "run out of" NK troops but a "fresh batch" should arrive next month.
Ukraine has continued a moderate counter-offensive against Toretsk, launching a deep-penetration raid through the town (Russia captured most of the town some weeks ago) that threw Russian forces into confusion. Russia had misjudged the Ukrainian positions, so two Su-25s sent to support troops came under MANPAD fire; one of the Su-25s was shot down and the other forced to retreat. The Mi-8 helicopter sent to retrieve the pilot came under sustained fire and EW attack and was damaged before retreating, possibly leaving several crewmembers on the ground. The fate of the Su-25 pilot remains unclear.
A Russian armoured push on Vysnheve, on the Pokrovsk front, has been defeated by the 3rd Assault Brigade.
A Russian tank in Selydove was apparently "spooked" by a mistaken drone sighting, with the driver turning the tank around, driving over and crushing a civilian vehicle being driven by Russian troops with unconfirmed casualties, and haphazardly drove off (I've seen confused reporting that 200 Russians were killed, but though the transport situation remains critical, even the Russians can't fit 200 soldiers in a four-door car; "200" is a common Russian code-number for KIA). This was just after a large drone attack on the HQ of the Russian 35th Brigade, located nearby.
Lithuania, Estonia and Latvia have disconnected from the Russian power grid in favour of interconnects with the European grid via Poland and undersea power cables. The move leaves Kaliningrad able to be cut off from the Russian power grid with ease. In the even of war, the exclave could simply have its entire power supply shut off almost immediately.
Ukraine plans to increase its testing of laser AA systems on the front, believing that Shahed drones are particularly susceptible due to inferior armour.
Additional economic analysis: in recent months India and Turkey have decreased their purchase of Russian cole by almost 40%. China has decreased its import by 7% in raw amounts but 25% in terms of money. Currency reserves in Russian banks are at a 16-year low. $52 billion has been taken out of the Russian economy by those Russians fleeing abroad. Business has removed a further $44 billion. Production of fertilizer machinery in Russia has decreased by 61% in a year. Goldman Sachs has completed its full withdrawal from the Russian market, whilst ING (the largest Dutch bank) is close to completing the process. Turkish banks have completed the process of blocking third-party Turkish payment cards, which Russians had been stockpiling to get around sanctions. Russia has also been pushing the idea of a "BRICS currency" but has failed to convince the other countries of the value of doing so. Massive lay-offs are also underway in the coal industry in Kemerovo. Russia has also moved some 30% of its printing and publishing business to China, as the industry can no longer refresh old equipment due to sanctions.
do you have a source other than that Noel post re: Kotlyne?
b/c he's quoting a Z-head who says "UAF is trying to push us out of Kotlyne", but Noel translated that as "pushed out".
I'm also not sold on this being a major move to sever the salient SSW of Pokrovsk, because there were reports of counter-strikes towards Kotlyne (the tip of the salient) and Pischane (the right flank, pushing from Pokrovs'k outward), but nothing from the left flank, which is where it would be the most stretched. I mean, I saw plenty of clickbait thumbnails showing arrows from all 3 sides, but from what I've seen, I'm not sure we're seeing anything other than a local tactical counter.
