[Werthead]

Some Ukrainian sources pointing out that the river north of the dam will start contracting sharply, potentially allowing Ukraine to attack along a much wider front into areas the Russians did not fortify heavily because the river was defending them. Oops.

Meanwhile, Prigozhin has now called for the execution of Gerasimov and Shoigu, claiming they are grossly incompetent and have led Russia to defeat. He says that it's too late to mobilise new troops, there's nobody to train them, it would take many months for them to be even vaguely ready for the battlefield and apart from the distraction of the dam, the Ukrainians are advancing on many fronts. He seems to be basically be saying that the conflict is lost. He also says that tactical nukes wouldn't change the equation, just piss off the rest of the world, including Russia's dwindling supply of friends.

He definitely seems to be setting himself up for something here.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 07 June 2023 - 07:43 PM

[Abyss]

Werthead, on 07 June 2023 - 07:42 PM, said:

....

He definitely seems to be setting himself up for something here.

Defenestration most likely.

[Macros]

A trip out a hotel window

[Abyss]

It seems to be a popular retirement plan there.

[Tiste Simeon]

A nice bowl of novichok in the morning. It's Russia's favourite cereal!

[Werthead]

Macros, on 08 June 2023 - 06:14 AM, said:

A trip out a hotel window

Prigozhin has very cleverly kept himself on the front line, a long way from the Kremlin and its many windows, and surrounded by ultra-loyal troops.

If Prigozhin turned around and took his ~30,000 remaining troops to Moscow, it'd be interesting to see the Kremlin's reaction.

[Abyss]

Werthead, on 08 June 2023 - 07:21 PM, said:

Macros, on 08 June 2023 - 06:14 AM, said:

A trip out a hotel window

Prigozhin has very cleverly kept himself on the front line, a long way from the Kremlin and its many windows, and surrounded by ultra-loyal troops.

If Prigozhin turned around and took his ~30,000 remaining troops to Moscow, it'd be interesting to see the Kremlin's reaction.

How many windows does the Moscow Sheraton have?

[Macros]

About 30,000

[Werthead]

Wagner have been ordered to subordinate themselves to the authority of the Russian MoD, Prigozhin has told them to F off.

Interesting to see how that develops.

[Mentalist]

Werthead, on 07 June 2023 - 07:42 PM, said:

Some Ukrainian sources pointing out that the river north of the dam will start contracting sharply, potentially allowing Ukraine to attack along a much wider front into areas the Russians did not fortify heavily because the river was defending them. Oops.

Meanwhile, Prigozhin has now called for the execution of Gerasimov and Shoigu, claiming they are grossly incompetent and have led Russia to defeat. He says that it's too late to mobilise new troops, there's nobody to train them, it would take many months for them to be even vaguely ready for the battlefield and apart from the distraction of the dam, the Ukrainians are advancing on many fronts. He seems to be basically be saying that the conflict is lost. He also says that tactical nukes wouldn't change the equation, just piss off the rest of the world, including Russia's dwindling supply of friends.

He definitely seems to be setting himself up for something here.

That silt will be really terrible to try to navigate, though.

Things are happening today along the border of Donets'k and Zaporizhya Oblasts. There's a cluster of villages there long a winding river, and UAF have been making good progress long it.

The orcs had to blow another dam further upstream to try to slow down the advance. UAF should approach the 1st big trenchline soon. At which point the coastal supply road might be within HIMARS range.

2 railway bridges exploded in Crimea. One one the line from the bridge to mainland Crimea, and another on the way to Melitopol'

This post has been edited by Mentalist: 11 June 2023 - 11:08 PM

[Werthead]

Ukraine making progress around the NW approaches to Bakhmut as well. The Russians appear to be giving ground, and a Russian counterattack at Berkhivka was defeated by Ukrainian forces.

The Velyka Novosilka front is where Russian forces have been divided, split apart and driven back, with a whole cluster of small villages liberated. Not a war-winning success, but a huge morale boost and Russia's progress around Bakhmut has been so appalling that Ukraine could shortly have liberated more territory than it lost during Russia's last Donbas offensive.

Some interesting signs that Ukraine may have achieved some victories near Vasylivka. That's important because it hinges the far western end of the southern front on the Dnipro. Ukraine pushing forwards there could shortly put them in position of the nuclear plant Russia controls in the area.

It looks like Japan is close to agreeing to export military equipment and supplies to Ukraine, whilst South Korea is again strongly considering it under American pressure (South Korea's artillery production capacity is one of the largest in the world, and SK artillery guns and shells could be transferred to Ukraine in vast quantities).

[Macros]

Like what is Putins end game here?

[Werthead]

Macros, on 12 June 2023 - 08:33 PM, said:

Like what is Putins end game here?

At the moment, it's to hold on to the gains Russia has made. If Ukraine's current offensive yields only limited gains, he can start to agitate and push for a peace settlement where Russia gets to hold the territories it has taken and Crimea is recognised as Russian in perpetuity (some Russian commentators have suggested he even annexed four oblasts with the express objective of using two of them as bargaining chips later on, but that would make Putin look like he was backing down, which is not really his style), and Ukraine agrees not to join NATO.

The problem is that he is not presenting any reason for Ukraine to accept that. Russia has exhausted a vast amount of its ready military hardware (almost two-thirds of its battle-ready tank complement has been obliterated), and is overwhelmingly reliant on Iranian support (support that will vanish if Israel and the US decide to bomb Iran's nuclear programme, and they will probably spare a few cruise missiles for its weapons factories as well). It effectively has inexhaustible manpower (as in it could mobilise another 3 million troops if it really needed to), but then so does Ukraine, and Russia's "tide of bodies" tactics really don't work against modern weaponry. Economically, if this was just Russia v Ukraine, Russia could outlast Ukraine and win, but Russia v all of NATO and quite a few countries outside it is just comically lopsided, even with Russia trying to expand its economic ties to China and India (who are happy to reap the benefits of that by driving such a hard bargain that Russia is still worse off).

Putin could start to threaten WMDs again, but there is no constructive or viable way to use them on the battlefield without either rendering territory un-conquerable because you've irradiated it, or enraging most of the world, including your own allies.

At the moment Putin's strategy is "hold on tight and see what turns up," which is not really a long-term viable plan, although it might serve in the medium term. If China invades Taiwan and ends up in a massive shooting war with the US in the Pacific, that seismic geopolitical shift might play into Russia's favour in Ukraine. But that is relying a lot on an ally to do something they're not massively keen on, certainly not on a timetable to benefit you.

[Werthead]

Makarivka has been retaken by Ukraine as part of its Zaporizhzhia offensive. The Russians staged a major counterattack there and were beaten back with heavy losses from the sound of it. That might be a sign of what was talked about earlier on, these attacks are trying to get Russia to commit their reserves to zero them and they might have done so there. Over 100 square kilometres has now been retaken in about 36 hours. Not staggering spectacular, but slow and steady progress.

One issue the Russians are concerned about on Telegram is that Ukraine has not reached the main defensive line yet, but Russian commanders are ordering troops to leave the line and move forwards to the contact line to try to hold there, which is moronically stupid. Some units seem to be refusing to do that and actually staying in their pre-prepared defensive position. Russia seems to be partially ignoring its own military doctrine, which is weird (but on-brand in this conflict). There's also signs of Russian units leaving the main defensive trenches to take up position in buildings to avoid being zeroed by Ukrainian spotter drones for artillery.

A Russian oil facility at Krasnodar has been blown up and is burning like a MFer. That's east of the Kerch Straits Bridge. Not a clear indication on what caused it; if it was HIMARS (possibly firing GLSDB) that's a clear warning to every Russian on the Crimean Peninsula that their evacuation route is now in range and can be destroyed at Ukraine's pleasure. More likely some kind of sabotage though.

An industrial facility in St. Petersburg is also on fire. The cause is unknown.

Shoigu has accused Wagner troops of stealing fuel and other supplies meant for the regular Russian soldiers, to which Wagner has responded poorly.

[Abyss]

Werthead, on 13 June 2023 - 06:22 PM, said:

.. Russian commanders are ordering troops to leave the line and move forwards to the contact line to try to hold there, which is moronically stupid. Some units seem to be refusing to do that and actually staying in their pre-prepared defensive position....

text cannot adequately convey the 'are they really that... something?' expression on my face.

[Werthead]

A Russian Telegram channel affiliated with the Russian 205th Separate Motorised Rifle Brigade has apparently claimed they undermined the Kakhovka dam but miscalculated the amount of damage they would do. Some suggestion this admission was a fake, others that the claim seems viable and they planned to only flood the Dnipro islands, not the whole river.

Meanwhile, senior Chechen military commander Delimkhanov has been killed in action or is MIA. A Russian officer (the same one tortured by Wagner a few weeks back) has claimed that Wagner leaked his coordinates to the Ukrainians. Unknown if true, or a transparent ploy to try to turn the Chechens and Wagner (former close allies) against one another.

A Russian commander ordered a gathering of troops at Kreminna for a large speech, but he left them waiting for too long and they area was hit hard by Ukrainian artillery fire. Hundreds killed in a single attack.

Russia also decided to deploy a MSTA-S SPG battery way too close to the front line, resulting in the entire battery being blown to pieces by a single Ukrainian artillery strike. Very expensive and very silly.

[Cause]

Werthead, on 14 June 2023 - 07:32 PM, said:

A Russian commander ordered a gathering of troops at Kreminna for a large speech, but he left them waiting for too long and they area was hit hard by Ukrainian ar

Do you have a link for this I tried finding it. I don’t doubt that this can happen in war but this would be …

Can you be court martialed for stupidity? Assuming the troops don’t find him first.

[Tsundoku]

Russian soldier surrendered to a drone.

Haunting moment Russian soldier surrenders to Ukrainian drone
This is the moment a Russian soldier surrendered to a Ukrainian drone, desperate to survive after his entire unit was taken out.

https://www.news.com...e6b09f37539a6c6

--------------------------

Vladimir Putin admits Russian military has depleted as Ukraine war drags on
After months of bloody stalemate, Vladimir Putin has been forced to show Russia’s hand in a rare display of weakness.

https://www.news.com...1c0ba758daa3905

[Abyss]

Tsundoku, on 15 June 2023 - 08:17 AM, said:

Russian soldier surrendered to a drone.

Haunting moment Russian soldier surrenders to Ukrainian drone
This is the moment a Russian soldier surrendered to a Ukrainian drone, desperate to survive after his entire unit was taken out.

https://www.news.com...e6b09f37539a6c6

...

The drone story is pretty wild and will send at least 50 sf writers scrambling to write something like this.

[Werthead]

Cause, on 14 June 2023 - 08:28 PM, said:

Do you have a link for this I tried finding it. I don’t doubt that this can happen in war but this would be …

Can you be court martialed for stupidity? Assuming the troops don’t find him first.

Verily.

The followup thread is worth reading, the Russian soldiers angrily blame their CO, a notable idiot who apparently got a promotion by lying about his achievements.

ETA: Sounds like ATACMS may have just been approved for use in Ukraine, or they're on the bill to do so.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 16 June 2023 - 04:55 PM