[Werthead]

Interesting analysis from both Kofman and Lee that recent Ukrainian gains around Bakhmut have been low-hanging fruit generated by Russian incompetence, and as a result Russia has rushed artillery and reserves to the Bakhmut area to stop a possible total collapse (Russian Telegram messages from both regular and Wagner troops suggesting this is not impossible). However, there are no signs of Ukraine's heavy assault brigades and new formations in the Bakhmut area. Possibly Ukraine turned Bakhmut into an area of high contention to both deny Russia an easy (if meaningless) win and also tie down forces whilst it hits elsewhere along the line with its heavy equipment. This may have been opportunistic - Ukraine is genuinely bewildered they are still holding onto Bakhmut and flabbergasted by Russia's tactics which have obliterated a titanic amount of offensive firepower for almost zero gains - and may have dramatically reinforced their chances of victory elsewhere on the line (before Bakhmut really turned into the grinder, Ukrainian sources seemed sour on the counter-offensive being that effective, now they are much more cautiously optimistic).

Some indications Russia has pulled troops out of those 70km trenches far to the west to reinforce Bakhmut, which would be 1) breathtakingly moronic and 2) utterly on-brand.

This ties in with reports within Russia that the government really does not want to carry out a new round of mobilisation, and have even limited their shadow mobilisation of students to the minimum they think they can get away with without causing trouble, and this has severely limited their manpower reserves to both hold the line, take Bakhmut and also generate forces for a new Russian summer or early autumn offensive later this year.

The collapse around Bakhmut seems to have been caused by well-equipped Wagner units being pulled off the flanks to fight in the city. VDV units replaced them and these are the ones that have been destroyed or pushed back.

Some indications that Ukraine is also fielding Turkish-built cluster munitions.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 19 May 2023 - 03:54 PM

[Werthead]

Vastly more positive talk about F-16s, and a US assessment that Ukraine could be ready to fly F-16s in just 4 months once the go-order is given.

Ukraine itself has noted some problems with the idea though, including the fact that they need longer runways to accommodate them, so to make it unclear from satellite which airbases will be used, they'll need to simultaneously extend the runways of almost every airbase and airport in the country, which is not a trivial logistical undertaking.

[Werthead]

Some odd stuff going in Belgorod. A "Russian partisan group" has proclaimed it is planning to return home to liberate Russia from Putin, and simultaneously there's reports of gunfire in Belgorod and video of a Russian helicopter having to launch flares and evade fire over the city.

ETA: Two Russian partisan groups joined forces to launch an attack across the border towards Belgorod. They have claimed to have liberated three villages and advanced to Greyvoronsky, where they blew up a bridge and shot down a Russian helicopter. It appears that some individuals may have gone further and reached Belgorod itself, or (more likely), the video from the city was actually taken in these border villages.

Russia was caught totally on the surprise and is scrambling to send in troops.

ETA2: The "free Russian" brigade has secured two villages and is still contesting Greyvoronsky, using captured IFVs and APCs. Russian Telegram in meltdown, with most agreeing this is a spoiling attack designed to draw forces away from elsewhere on the line. One or two are trying to describe this as a massive trap which will spring shut and crush the enemy etc but nobody seriously is buying that. If the "free Russians" take the town, it'll be tricky to dislodge them as they are wedged between two rivers with their back to the Ukrainian border. Russia would have to bring up seriously heavy forces, which of course are badly needed elsewhere.

As a bonus, Ukraine took out its fourth Su-35 of the war, but the second in the last week, and had a field day with taking out Iranian drones and Russian stealth cruise missiles, which don't seem to be living up to their specs.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 22 May 2023 - 10:34 PM

[Mentalist]

I go away for a weekend, and there's a civil war in Russia.

Isn't that nice.
They're scrambling 74th Guards Motorized Rifles Brigade to dislodge them. The rebels are trying to secure positions alongside the Vorskla and Hrayvoronka rivers.

The 74th is the unit that bravely tried to take Bilohorivka by fording the Donets' river last year. I'm sure they'll be thrilled to try something similar again.

[Werthead]

The drone attack on Moscow today feels like a significant moment. Not in terms of damage done (negligible) but in terms that ordinary Russians in the capital realised that the way was very definitely not going the way they'd been told.

The question is now between the raid across the border and this drone strike on Moscow, what shape the actual counter-offensive on the ground will take, as the war won't be won through lobbing drones at Moscow but retaking areas the Russians have taken in the south.

[Mentalist]

Werthead, on 30 May 2023 - 10:03 PM, said:

The drone attack on Moscow today feels like a significant moment. Not in terms of damage done (negligible) but in terms that ordinary Russians in the capital realised that the way was very definitely not going the way they'd been told.

The question is now between the raid across the border and this drone strike on Moscow, what shape the actual counter-offensive on the ground will take, as the war won't be won through lobbing drones at Moscow but retaking areas the Russians have taken in the south.

I foresee a larger incursion by the RVC/LFR to try to take and hold some territory. Possibly seizing a borderzone military base and trying to get a bunch of mobiks to "defect".

Once the orcs have to commit their reserves up north, then strike in the S.

Since there's another round of flash flooding in the S, we probably have at least a month to go before things start escalating.

[Werthead]

Ukraine has bought up a sizeable chunk of the world's supply of FPV racing drones, which they have weaponised into kamikaze weapons. Potentially 50,000 of them, but some estimates doubling that.

These are not likely to be deployed to Moscow, being somewhat shorter in range, but they could easily be used to overwhelm Russian defences along sectors of the front. Also amusingly, Ukraine bought up so many drone components that Russia can't actually buy any of their own.

[Cause]

Werthead, on 30 May 2023 - 10:03 PM, said:

The drone attack on Moscow today feels like a significant moment. Not in terms of damage done (negligible) but in terms that ordinary Russians in the capital realised that the way was very definitely not going the way they'd been told.

The question is now between the raid across the border and this drone strike on Moscow, what shape the actual counter-offensive on the ground will take, as the war won't be won through lobbing drones at Moscow but retaking areas the Russians have taken in the south.

What do we know about this attack? Ukraine denied it right. Which in war doesnt mean much but one drone seems a strange attack. Could it have been a symapthetic russian group? Anything point to ukraine in particualr, what was the goal.

Russia claiming its a terrorist attack hours after and hours before they send missiles into Ukraines cities is strange propaganda though. They just seem whiny and weak.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Cause, on 31 May 2023 - 07:09 PM, said:

Werthead, on 30 May 2023 - 10:03 PM, said:

The drone attack on Moscow today feels like a significant moment. Not in terms of damage done (negligible) but in terms that ordinary Russians in the capital realised that the way was very definitely not going the way they'd been told.

The question is now between the raid across the border and this drone strike on Moscow, what shape the actual counter-offensive on the ground will take, as the war won't be won through lobbing drones at Moscow but retaking areas the Russians have taken in the south.

What do we know about this attack? Ukraine denied it right. Which in war doesnt mean much but one drone seems a strange attack. Could it have been a symapthetic russian group? Anything point to ukraine in particualr, what was the goal.

Russia claiming its a terrorist attack hours after and hours before they send missiles into Ukraines cities is strange propaganda though. They just seem whiny and weak.

Where are you getting just one drone from?

Quote

[Russian] defence ministry said eight drones [...] though Baza, a Telegram channel with links to the security services, said there were more than 25.

[...] Ukrainian presidential aide, denied Kyiv was directly involved but said "we are pleased to watch events" and forecast more such strikes.

Ukraine war comes to Moscow as drones strike both capitals | Reuters (updated 2 hours ago)

[Mentalist]

Cause, on 31 May 2023 - 07:09 PM, said:

Werthead, on 30 May 2023 - 10:03 PM, said:

The drone attack on Moscow today feels like a significant moment. Not in terms of damage done (negligible) but in terms that ordinary Russians in the capital realised that the way was very definitely not going the way they'd been told.

The question is now between the raid across the border and this drone strike on Moscow, what shape the actual counter-offensive on the ground will take, as the war won't be won through lobbing drones at Moscow but retaking areas the Russians have taken in the south.

What do we know about this attack? Ukraine denied it right. Which in war doesnt mean much but one drone seems a strange attack. Could it have been a symapthetic russian group? Anything point to ukraine in particualr, what was the goal.

Russia claiming its a terrorist attack hours after and hours before they send missiles into Ukraines cities is strange propaganda though. They just seem whiny and weak.

Ukraine isn't commenting on it.

But most of those drones are domestically produced UJ brands. So there's that.

[Werthead]

Cause, on 31 May 2023 - 07:09 PM, said:

What do we know about this attack? Ukraine denied it right. Which in war doesnt mean much but one drone seems a strange attack. Could it have been a symapthetic russian group? Anything point to ukraine in particualr, what was the goal.

Russia claiming its a terrorist attack hours after and hours before they send missiles into Ukraines cities is strange propaganda though. They just seem whiny and weak.

It appears there were at least 8 drones, with 3 of them hitting targets and exploding (whether they were designated or useful targets is another question). At one point Russia was claiming there were around 30 drones in the air, but various analyses of footage and photos indicates a lot of them were the same drone seen from different angles (also at least one plane and a Russian drone were confused and mixed up with the attacking ones).

The purpose of the attack was not to impart significant damage, but to cause doubt, uncertainty and fear in Moscow among the political elite. At this point in the conflict, Russia's capabilities are degraded but Ukraine's are growing: it could not have carried out this attack a year ago. The idea is to make them start thinking they might, personally, be in danger and to encourage them to turn on Putin or push for peace on reasonable terms. Maybe a long shot.

There's also those faux-negotiations from the start of the conflict where a Russian diplomat told the Ukrainians, "We can hurt you but you can't do anything to hurt us." This is Ukraine saying that statement is now no longer the case.

[Mentalist]

RVC/LFR launched a new offensive into Bilhorod People's Republic yesterday, to the NE of Kharkiv this time.

rumours of a second axis of attack at Urazovo, along the Oskil river- this is much closer to the "active" front line towards Svatove.


Meanwhile Storm Shadows continue exploding stuff along the Azov Sea coast. Berdyans'k, Mariupol' and now Heniches'k (the impromptu capital of pro-Russian collaborators in the occupied portion of Kherson Oblast'). Need to cripple those supply lines along the coast before trying to punch through to the sea.



More armour is coming. Unfortunately, the Swiss are blocking the sale of 90-odd Leopard 1s to Germany and Netherlands. But the US is brokering a purchase of a bunch of Gepard anti-air tanks from Jordan, which are gonna be instrumental in covering from the Lancet FPVs as our artillery makes a push.

This post has been edited by Mentalist: 02 June 2023 - 03:48 PM

[Werthead]

Prigozhin indicates that Wagner's next move after Bakhmut is to invade New Zealand.

Definitely points for the unexpected shift in target.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian FPV loitering munitions exploding all over the shop along the E40 north of Bakhmut. Looks like the goal is to destroy resupply routes leading to Dubovo-Vasylivka and Berkhivka.

The Russians seem really annoyed that their anti-drone systems seem to have just stopped working. Possibly the Ukrainians have found a way of securing their communications and control systems from interception, which would be huge if that's effective on their entire drone fleet.

Wagner and the Chechens also seem to be heading for a major argument.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 02 June 2023 - 04:15 PM

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Werthead, on 02 June 2023 - 04:07 PM, said:

Prigozhin indicates that Wagner's next move after Bakhmut is to invade New Zealand.

Definitely points for the unexpected shift in target.

Quote

In response to questions about what the group’s interest in the Chathams [in New Zealand] were, Prigozhin gave a short, cryptic response.

"We will not share this information, everything has its own time."

Stuff then asked if the pin was a mistake intended for another place, or if it was being used to hold the map on the wall.

lol...

Though I'd suppose they could try to invade the bunkers the ultrawealthy have been constructing in New Zealand? For apocalypses fast and slow(-ish---though I don't think climate change would have much of a negative impact on most of Russia)....

[Werthead]

A hell of a lot going on at the moment.

Russian partisans have raided Belgorod again. Reportedly Russian artillery tried to hit them, missed and blew up a bunch of Russian private homes. Russian military forces sent in to repel the attackers were reluctant to engage, and some looted some nearby Russian houses. Some reports that Wagner might be sent to the area to restore order.

However, Prigozhin decided it would be a splendid idea to unilaterally arrest the commander of the "72nd Brigade," a Russian regular army unit which reportedly fired on Wagner forces in Bakhmut. Prigozhin had him tortured and forced to confess live on camera. The Russian MoD is apparently blowing up big time as this act of treason.

Ukraine has reportedly opened a large-scale series of raids along the line of contact in Donetsk Oblast. It's unclear which is the main thrust, which is opportunism taking advantage of disorder in the Russian lines and which is a tactical feint. So far (apologies for any use of incorrect spelling, some copy-pasting going on here), the Velykonovosilkivskyi direction is under attack, with the first recorded sightings of western-donated tanks. A reported tank battle near Novodarivka, although that seems to have been a Russian advance by three T-72s that were cut off and destroyed by two defending Ukrainian T-64s supported by AT teams.

Ukrainian counter-attacks against Soledar were also reportedly launched, and a series of strikes from Vuhledar, plus reinforement of the continuing counter-offensive at Bakhmut. Volnovakha may be under threat. Some indications Novodonetske is being contested. The Russians do claim to have successfully defeated a single Ukrainian infantry attack somewhere in Donetsk, which some have taken to mean the defeat of the entire counter-offensive, which would be premature (in the extreme).

[Primateus]

So, a large dam in the Kherson region has been blown up. I suppose it could be, as the Russians claim, the Ukrainians that did it, but I just doubt it. It stinks of further Russian action. Not mention, apparently the water depots the dam was holding was essential for the coolant systems of a nearby nuclear powerplant.

[Abyss]

Werthead, on 02 June 2023 - 04:07 PM, said:

...The Russians seem really annoyed that their anti-drone systems seem to have just stopped working. Possibly the Ukrainians have found a way of securing their communications and control systems from interception, which would be huge if that's effective on their entire drone fleet.
...

That whats you get for not stocking up on birdseed.

Azath Vitr (D, on 02 June 2023 - 04:30 PM, said:

Werthead, on 02 June 2023 - 04:07 PM, said:

Prigozhin indicates that Wagner's next move after Bakhmut is to invade New Zealand.

Definitely points for the unexpected shift in target.

Quote

In response to questions about what the group's interest in the Chathams [in New Zealand] were, Prigozhin gave a short, cryptic response.

"We will not share this information, everything has its own time."

Stuff then asked if the pin was a mistake intended for another place, or if it was being used to hold the map on the wall.

...

We are approaching 70s-80s Bond villain levels here.
or possibly Austin Powers.

Werthead, on 05 June 2023 - 12:29 PM, said:

A hell of a lot going on at the moment.

Russian partisans have raided Belgorod again. Reportedly Russian artillery tried to hit them, missed and blew up a bunch of Russian private homes. Russian military forces sent in to repel the attackers were reluctant to engage, and some looted some nearby Russian houses. Some reports that Wagner might be sent to the area to restore order.

However, Prigozhin decided it would be a splendid idea to unilaterally arrest the commander of the "72nd Brigade," a Russian regular army unit which reportedly fired on Wagner forces in Bakhmut. Prigozhin had him tortured and forced to confess live on camera. The Russian MoD is apparently blowing up big time as this act of treason.

Ukraine has reportedly opened a large-scale series of raids along the line of contact in Donetsk Oblast. It's unclear which is the main thrust, which is opportunism taking advantage of disorder in the Russian lines and which is a tactical feint. So far (apologies for any use of incorrect spelling, some copy-pasting going on here), the Velykonovosilkivskyi direction is under attack, with the first recorded sightings of western-donated tanks. A reported tank battle near Novodarivka, although that seems to have been a Russian advance by three T-72s that were cut off and destroyed by two defending Ukrainian T-64s supported by AT teams.

Ukrainian counter-attacks against Soledar were also reportedly launched, and a series of strikes from Vuhledar, plus reinforement of the continuing counter-offensive at Bakhmut. Volnovakha may be under threat. Some indications Novodonetske is being contested. The Russians do claim to have successfully defeated a single Ukrainian infantry attack somewhere in Donetsk, which some have taken to mean the defeat of the entire counter-offensive, which would be premature (in the extreme).

Primateus, on 06 June 2023 - 09:43 AM, said:

So, a large dam in the Kherson region has been blown up. I suppose it could be, as the Russians claim, the Ukrainians that did it, but I just doubt it. It stinks of further Russian action. Not mention, apparently the water depots the dam was holding was essential for the coolant systems of a nearby nuclear powerplant.

This is like some weird mashup of early 90s military fiction, 'Our Armies At War' comics, and a few Mel Brooks' movies.

[Werthead]

The destruction of the Nova Kakhovka damn is pretty damn silly. The southern bank of the Dnipro is much lower than the northern, so whilst the floodwaters could pose a threat to Kherson city, not immediately. On the other hand, Russian defensive positions all along the southern bank have been destroyed. Some indications that dozens to hundreds of Russian soldiers have been killed or cut off, forced to take shelter on high ground or even climb trees to rise about the floodwaters. Ukrainian forces may have also taken losses, and civilians on both sides of the river are likely to have taken casualties.

One possible theory that the dam, which had been hit by weapons fire from both sides during the conflict, may have given up the ghost on its own. Another is that the Russians tried to blow the upper road level to stop Ukrainian forces from using it as a bridge to cross the river and inadvertently collapsed the whole thing.

[Werthead]

The Russians claimed 2 Leopard kills. In fact, they destroyed two agricultural harvesters.

[Mentalist]

Werthead, on 06 June 2023 - 04:56 PM, said:

The destruction of the Nova Kakhovka damn is pretty damn silly. The southern bank of the Dnipro is much lower than the northern, so whilst the floodwaters could pose a threat to Kherson city, not immediately. On the other hand, Russian defensive positions all along the southern bank have been destroyed. Some indications that dozens to hundreds of Russian soldiers have been killed or cut off, forced to take shelter on high ground or even climb trees to rise about the floodwaters. Ukrainian forces may have also taken losses, and civilians on both sides of the river are likely to have taken casualties.

One possible theory that the dam, which had been hit by weapons fire from both sides during the conflict, may have given up the ghost on its own. Another is that the Russians tried to blow the upper road level to stop Ukrainian forces from using it as a bridge to cross the river and inadvertently collapsed the whole thing.

They started the night crowing about a "controlled flooding" that was aimed at fleshing out our SOF troops from the islands in the river delta.

Except obviously "controlled" and "Russian" don't really fit in the same sentence.

Although the occupied Left Bank will take the brunt of the damage, the long term ramifications are going to be enormous. In particular, northern Crimea just lost the main source of its irrigation water.