[D'iversify]

Coco with marshmallows, on 12 September 2014 - 09:36 PM, said:

seen that already.

Still, 97% of the electorate has registered to vote in the referendum.

Extraordinary. Wonder what percentage turnout there's going to be.

They were discussing this on the news the other day, apparently about 80% is expected.

[Coco with marshmallows]

TBH i'd be surprised if its not higher.

For once I don't know anybody NOT voting. Both the Yes and the No camps have been doing their damndest to drum up support. Hell, the figures on postal votes is around 800,000.

800,000 out of 4.2 million is near enough 20%.

This might actually be the first election type situation where i'll have to queue to make my choice.

Regardless of the result I'd be happy if that level of interest is maintained through subsequent elections, be they for MPs bound for Westminster or Edinburgh - this much interest can surely only lead to a more democratic society.

[Whisperzzzzzzz]

Coco with marshmallows, on 13 September 2014 - 06:40 PM, said:

...if that level of interest is maintained through subsequent elections...

I think that's far too optimistic.

[Gnaw]

Whisperzzzzzzz, on 13 September 2014 - 10:23 PM, said:

Coco with marshmallows, on 13 September 2014 - 06:40 PM, said:

...if that level of interest is maintained through subsequent elections...

I think that's far too optimistic.

[Mezla PigDog]

I can't find a link now but I read an article this morning on the Guardian website about the do that Dan Snow organised in Trafalgar Square yesterday. Bob Geldof, Eddie Izzard and various other "celebs" said stuff and the idea basically seemed to be "It is up to you, we won't tell you how to vote but we would really like you to stay". Quite a nice sentiment really and in stark contrast to all of the Better Together campaign headlines of "You will lose this that and the other if you vote Yes". I was listening to Jeremy Vine on Radio 2 (I hate that show but I couldn't get anything else to tune in properly while I was driving) and there were a bunch of people whining about why the English weren't getting a say and those of the opinion "If they want to go then good riddance". People are such tits, it's depressing.

I caught another interesting article about the impact on the Trident program and implications for the US (Implications for US). I hadn't realised that the SNP said a Yes vote would mean moving the Trident submarines out of Scotland (makes sense when you think about it). If you can't be bothered reading the article the key issue was:

Quote

Acton, whose background is in nuclear physics, said that DC's "nuclear community" was worried about what might happen to Trident, which Alex Salmond, the current First Minister of Scotland and the chief campaigner for independence, has pledged to kick out of their current base on the west coast of Scotland. There is some worry in US nuclear policy circles that Scottish independence could lead to the UK abandoning its nuclear program altogether. America very much doesn't want that, said Acton. "The US is quietly very keen for the UK to remain a nuclear weapon state. They do not want to be the sole nuclear power in Nato." (While France is a nuclear weapon state and an otherwise full member of the Nato command structure, it does not contribute use of its nuclear weapons to the alliance and does not attend meetings of the Nuclear Planning Group.)

The missiles that form the UK's nuclear deterrent are leased from the American Atlantic Squadron pool, which is based at the US naval base at King's Bay, on the Georgia coast, where America houses its own Trident submarines.

Acton thinks there is a possibility that the warheads, and possibly even the submarines, might have to be stored back at King's Bay – at least temporarily – if an independent Scotland goes through with the Scottish National Party's stated policy of ejecting them. "I think it would be an interim solution," he said, "but might end up becoming permanent."

Lots of maybe's and mights in there but you wonder what the English process of finding a new (and welcoming) home for the Trident submarines would be....


It is interesting how it is hotting up and how devolution offers are being thrown at the Scots all of a sudden, are they really going to stick to such promises if No wins? Seems unlikely to me but everything I read is saying devolution to regional control is the way forward throughout the country. A No vote may result in a long hard look at how the country is run but I'm going to be a cynic and say that it will be a case of "As you were". They will go back to focussing on the politics that maintain the status quo and money into already bulging pockets.

Do people think the English politicians have been caught napping? I mean how to you miss the gravity of a vote on independence? I can accept that they have been caught napping on what people outside of London or those engaged in politics might really think. I'm still on the fence, I'm glad I don't have a vote as it is quite a stark choice with no middle ground and it is interesting reading about the voting strategy of people who were really hoping for devo-max. I would love to see a Yes vote result in a socialist utopia (then I would try to move to Scotland) but that won't happen either way. I now have a vested interest in a No vote - I could do with the exchange rate bouncing back in time for my holiday in the US on Saturday! Lame I know.

This post has been edited by Mezla PigDog: 16 September 2014 - 02:17 PM

[DeadHedge]

Coco, dare i ask where in Scotland you are from?

Im from Fife myself and I have already voted via a postal vote (which I don't regret what I have voted) and I based it off of what is 'known' as opposed to the many unknowns that have been presented by the SNP and the better together campaign.

I have 2 worries for this refferendum -

The first is that from what i have seen personally and through social media, is that Scotland is now a very much divided nation and in the event of a No or a Yes vote will we be able to function ok or now? Certianly a family member of my wife's is in the Yes camp and they are already stating if its a No vote then they are petitioning for either a re-count or another refferendum.

My second worry is that the ourtcome is hinged on a majority vote of 50% plus 1 vote, this is a very scary prospect as to me if the vote is that close you are not representing your country as a whole.

Certainly on a personal note, my wife who is English has seen more of a divide in this than me and has already stated she wants to move back south in teh event of a Yes as she is worried about the amount of bigotry and hate that she has witnessed, she has even had people who were considered as friends stop speaker to her as she is English and is allowed to vote on this.

And I don't know if this is just me or not, but I have noticed that the Yes campaigners are much more vocal than the No, I have had Yes campaigners at my door asking me how I'm voting or if I'm voting, I have yet to have a No campaigner. I have also seen more 'vandalism' of No voters property or signs and very little the other way round.

I have voted No, as i believe that there are more unknown's to independance than known, not only that but we are in a Union that we are benefiting from (yes i concede we don't see the full value of the oil in Scotland but oil is finite) and i see no benefits to leaving this.

A little background for you too - I am a civil servant working in the Scottish Government (and have been for over 5 years), I was born and raised in Scotland by a Scottish mother and step-dad, my Birth father (I have a strong relationship with him) was English and my Grand-dad on my mums side is also English, I have an English wife and a son who was born in Scotland and to date raised here also. I have very strong feelings for my home country but I consider myself as British first and Scottish second, I don't feel any less patriotic for this and i hope taht teh country makes the right decision in the end.

How are others perceptions of the Referendum from the rest of the UK and the World as a whole?

[DeadHedge]

Mezla PigDog, on 16 September 2014 - 02:16 PM, said:

It is interesting how it is hotting up and how devolution offers are being thrown at the Scots all of a sudden, are they really going to stick to such promises if No wins? Seems unlikely to me but everything I read is saying devolution to regional control is the way forward throughout the country. A No vote may result in a long hard look at how the country is run but I'm going to be a cynic and say that it will be a case of "As you were". They will go back to focussing on the politics that maintain the status quo and money into already bulging pockets.

Mezla, What you are seeing now is Westminster reminding everyone that there will be more devolved powers for Scotland if we stay (and these were talked about prior to the debate). When the referendum was originally proposed it was meant to have 3 questions, Yes - Full independance , No - Status-Quo or Devo Max (Near full devolution with some shared services e.g. military).

I don't believe an independant Scotland could survive on its own, however I agree with being able to manage our own tax rates and dealing with other services as we currently do (NHS for one). I'm also worried if Tridet gets removed, not so much because we lose the Nukes, but because we will lose much more than that, there will be major job losses in the area, furtehr cuts in MOD spending, which would result in yet more job losses no doubt. this would be of no benefit to Scotland at all.


Sorry for double post and terribad spelling

This post has been edited by DeadHedge: 16 September 2014 - 02:48 PM

[Inane Babble]

Northern Irelander here and I REALLY don't want scotland to vote Yes, the UK desperately needs their votes to try and mitigate the utter insanity of David Cameron, the boy he bullied, and all their friends from ruining things more than they already are.

It may mean Scotland is better off, but it makes it significantly harder for the rest of the mainland to keep the nutjobs in check.

On a non-selfish note, I think Scotland should be a bit more realisitic of it's expectations regarding what exactly will happen when they get independance, but in the end it may be in their best interests, as I do not at all trust the recent more devolution """""Vow""""" (yes that many quote marks was necessary) that was made.

[Vengeance]

DeadHedge, on 16 September 2014 - 02:47 PM, said:

Sorry for double post and terribad spelling

I just put your spelling up to you being Scottish.

[Mezla PigDog]

DeadHedge, on 16 September 2014 - 02:47 PM, said:

Mezla PigDog, on 16 September 2014 - 02:16 PM, said:

It is interesting how it is hotting up and how devolution offers are being thrown at the Scots all of a sudden, are they really going to stick to such promises if No wins? Seems unlikely to me but everything I read is saying devolution to regional control is the way forward throughout the country. A No vote may result in a long hard look at how the country is run but I'm going to be a cynic and say that it will be a case of "As you were". They will go back to focussing on the politics that maintain the status quo and money into already bulging pockets.

Mezla, What you are seeing now is Westminster reminding everyone that there will be more devolved powers for Scotland if we stay (and these were talked about prior to the debate). When the referendum was originally proposed it was meant to have 3 questions, Yes - Full independance , No - Status-Quo or Devo Max (Near full devolution with some shared services e.g. military).

I heard it on the radio this morning, apparently it is big in the Daily Record today (or yesterday) that the 3 main party leaders have signed a "vow" that more powers will be devolved to Scotland in the event of a No win. I can't find a decent link but this is the Daily Record headline: Linky. It is apparently linked to Gordon Brown's idea of "3 guarantee's for Scotland": Linky

In answer to your question about reactions in other places - I'm in England, in Hertfordshire and local people seem a bit nonplussed. I think the further south you get in England the less people understand why anyone would want to leave. I'm from the North West originally, I understand fully! I have heard that the Yes campaign is rather vitriolic up in Scotland and it will be a bit shit for the losing side whoever wins if the margin is only a few percent.

[DeadHedge]

I saw the same today Mezla with 'The Vow' (sounds like a shit Rom-com doesn't it?)

The polls have been fiarly consistant and No has held the majority by usually close to 10% margin, however there is still about 10% that are 'undecided'.

Im not going to lie I am worried for my future up here, i am still living in Scotland hundreds of miles away from my wifes family (mine live a mile away but we don't talk anymore) for 2 reasons, the first is that I have a full time and secure job with the government, the second is we have a higher standard and cheaper cost of living (council tax and water rates are a flat rate based on a banding as the water company is still public owned, rents are significantly cheaper and i am only a mile from work so i don't need to have any travel expenses). I would miss my life up here deeply, but i am under no illusions that I will most likely join the long ranks of people flowing south in the event of a Yes as for me, the majority of the people living and working in Scotland will be misrepresented.

Mezla - for reference these are the guaranteed powers under The Scotland Act 2012these would be expanded upon under 'The Vow'

This post has been edited by DeadHedge: 16 September 2014 - 03:29 PM

[D'iversify]

Inane Babble, on 16 September 2014 - 02:58 PM, said:

Northern Irelander here and I REALLY don't want scotland to vote Yes, the UK desperately needs their votes to try and mitigate the utter insanity of David Cameron, the boy he bullied, and all their friends from ruining things more than they already are.

It may mean Scotland is better off, but it makes it significantly harder for the rest of the mainland to keep the nutjobs in check.

Whilst Scotland leaving would certainly mean a higher proportion of conservative-minded voters in the rump union, Scottish independence would likely result in a significant identity crisis in the Tory party given how strongly committed they are to unionism (Labour, by contrast, has a historic commitment to devolutionism). Cameron, as 'the man who lost Scotland', would likely have to resign and even more of the party's Eurosceptics would probably defect to UKIP. Even with the Labour vote diminished, there would be no guarantee that a unified Conservative Party would get in in 2015 (a hung parliament is in any case what is predicted by most pollsters if Scotland leaves, but it would be even more 'hung' if the Tories fracture).

[MrXIII]

This thread has made for a great read. Thank you all who have posted, you have provided me with something far more interesting than the incessant dull coverage playing on the TV. At the moment I'm in a hotel, there are only a few channels in English so the news is more or less on constantly. Having polished off Blood and Bone and most of Assail the discussion was, I assure you, much appreciated. I need the rest of Assail for my return journey after all.

It is getting late, so I will keep this short. As a Scot living abroad, I don't get a vote. I am ok with that. There are a few practical matters that could impact me if the scaremongering regarding EU membership turns out to be true, but I very much doubt that. Until recently I would have been in the No camp, but favoring devo max. I was involved with a major party and I imagine I would have taken part in the campaign.

That was then, this is now.I am a fairly poor patriot, but to paraphrase Richard Morgan I believe there is a lot of merit in making the political personal, striking back when someone tries to execute a policy that will harm you or those you care about. When I see the Tory party (my old crew) back bench and UKIP scramble around furiously in response to the promise of new powers for Scotland, I take it personally. Surely it is better to risk ruin yourself, than wait for someone else to bring the hammer down for a few cheap votes. Accordingly I've started urging friends and family back home to vote Yes. I've raised this exact point with them and referred them to recent comments by Irish economist David McWilliams, that set out what I consider to be a more objective view of an independent Scotland's prospects (short version, a thriving economy which is potentially a bad thing for the Irish).

[Coco with marshmallows]

Originally a west coaster, now living in weegieville.

English parents who live in the west coast still (they're a No)
Two closest friends are a No (as are their wives)

Having said that, a number of other friends are a Yes.

I think Scotland can survive on its own, maybe even thrive (eventually) the real question is can it maintain its current levels of spending, etc.

The answer to that is almost certainly a No.

I think its probably going to be a close No win - the simple fact is there are a lot of older people who won't risk change, plus independence referendums' tend to veer to the status quo on polling day (largely through fear of change), regardless of the opinions people give beforehand (See Quebec for instance)

The Better Together guys have really ballsed their campaign up though. Focusing on the negatives of independence instead of the benefits of the Union (which drives the stubborn types to 'prove them wrong'), and constantly trying to focus on the (admittedly individually unpopular) Alex Salmond.

The oldest bit of political spin in the world is that if you can't play the policies, you play the man.

They've been playing the man from the outset.

The role of the UK media in this has been very interesting though - all the daily papers have been supporting a No vote. Most of the TV channels as well.

Yet Yes is still polling at 40+% of the vote - social media has been mental. Any time a report is punted by either side its being dissected and analysed to death, often by interested bloggers rather than journalists. And as for the role of the BBC..... well, its not been showing itself in its best light, to say the least. The following had a huge amount of traction over the last weekend.

What the BBC aired:



The original, unedited response:



Unsurprisingly, the Yessers went ape****.

On a personal note, I saw the full response first, as a friend linked it to me. Didn't see the edited version till a couple days later.

[DeadHedge]

Coco,

Thanks for linking that to me. I can fully understand why teh Yessers were going ape, as it took the whole question and statement out of context. I have tried to avoid all the media coverage i could for this reason alone and i have found it is biased either one way or the other.

I agree also about No not exactly progressing their campaign too well and using the 'Devo Max' as a last ditch attempt to influence the vote.

The issue that has irked me most of all is work wise in that the unions are now spouting a load of tosh. One item is if its a yes, all the UK government services currently based in Scotland (HMRC, DWP and Job Centres) 'ALL' staff within these posts are guaranteed to be kept on by the newly formed independant Scottish Government (SG). For me this is a promise that is near on impossible to keep. Another is that the SG will have more powers to 'influence pay rises and pension changes', again this isn't the case. The current SG can make a decision whether to go with the exact same cuts/restrictions that Westminster impose on the UK civil Service but they don't they chose to implement the same restrictions (although not as badly) I couldnt see this changing, if anything the cuts/restrictions will become more strict with the SG taking on more staff with a potentially smaller budget.

What is your opinion on that it only has to be a majority of 50% plus 1 vote to go either way, do you feel that this is a good enough representation of the people of Scotlands wishes?

[Coco with marshmallows]

DeadHedge, on 17 September 2014 - 11:09 AM, said:

What is your opinion on that it only has to be a majority of 50% plus 1 vote to go either way, do you feel that this is a good enough representation of the people of Scotlands wishes?

It's the best choice of a bad bunch.

Quick history lesson:

The '79 referendum had the caveat of "at least 40% of the registered electorate", meaning that although the pro devolution choice won, it was rejected as voter turnout was only 60 something percent, and therefore less than 40% of the registered electorate voted in favour.

As a result the SNP backed Thatcher when she moved for "no confidence" against then Prime Minister Callaghan, which lead to general election which lead to Conservative win.


Look at it this way, what's the alternative? - Requiring 60% in favour of independence? What do you think would happen in that case if the votes were (for instance) 55% pro independence 45% pro union? - that's a clear majority.

TBH, I think it's likely to be a narrow 'NO' win, which is one of the two worst outcomes (the other being a narrow 'YES')

If there was a clear majority one way or the other, then people are more inclined to accept it and move on. But a close vote? Blech.

[Tiste Simeon]

Yeah I'm actually a bit worried for you guys up there. I think however this turns out there is going to be a lot of ill feeling and anger in Scotland. I think a Yes vote will bankrupt the country and cause many businesses and people to leave, plus the whole can they join the pound thing. I think a No vote will make the bitter ones even bitterer and then I think that things will just go back to how they were and there will be a lot of resentment.

In my opinion, I really do hope Scotland votes no as a yes vote has far too many long lasting consequences and most of them (as far as I can tell) are not good for either Scotland or anyone else. I also dislike Salmond more than most politicians and I think an independent Scotland under his rule would not be a good place to live.

As someone already said though, people don't like change and I think most undecideds will vote No.

[Coco with marshmallows]

Feel I should point out, there's been remarkably little ill will overall. In that sense, it's been very reserved. Some shouting and shoving.

The usual scattering of nutjobs making death threats (to both sides I should add)

To put it into context, here's the release from the Scottish Police Federation:

Quote

To: News Editor
Date: 17 September 2014
Subject: Independence Referendum

In response to increased press reports and comment implying increased crime and disorder as a consequence of the Independence Referendum Brian Docherty, Chairman of the Scottish Police Federation said;

“The Police Service of Scotland and the men and women who work in it should not be used as a political football at any time and especially so in these last few hours of the referendum campaign.

As I have previously stated the referendum debate has been robust but overwhelmingly good natured.

It was inevitable that the closer we came to the 18th of September passions would increase but that does not justify the exaggerated rhetoric that is being deployed with increased frequency. Any neutral observer could be led to believe Scotland is on the verge of societal disintegration yet nothing could be further from the truth.

Scotland’s citizens are overwhelmingly law abiding and tolerant and it is preposterous to imply that by placing a cross in a box, our citizens will suddenly abandon the personal virtues and values held dear to them all.

At this time it is more important than ever that individuals be they politicians, journalists or whoever should carefully consider their words, maintain level heads and act with respect. Respect is not demonstrated by suggesting a minority of mindless idiots are representative of anything. One of the many joys of this campaign has been how it has awakened political awareness across almost every single section of society. The success enjoyed by the many should not be sullied by the actions of the few.

Police officers must be kept free from the distractions of rhetoric better suited to the playground that the political stump. If crime has been committed it will be investigated and dealt with appropriately but quite simply police officers have better things to do than officiate in spats on social media and respond to baseless speculation of the potential for disorder on and following polling day”

This isn't going to turn into another NI with years of troubles even with a close vote.

As for a Yes vote bankrupting the country - it's highly possible. Maybe even probable. On the other hand, the country's already bankrupt (the UK that is), so we'd be in good company at least.

[Tiste Simeon]

Yeah I didn't mean I thought the whole country would go Doomsday post-vote. I just think everything that goes wrong from this point on will have half the country up in a dither going "this is cos you voted yes/no!"

[Malaclypse]

Quebec had a 51% no, 49% yes and it didn't erupt into chaos - though it should have imo - let the Frenchies fight amongst themselves and then re-conquer the bastards!

Just joking - kinda, sorta, maybe

I spent a month or so living pretty rough with some former students of mine in Quebec City - good times! Crazy, but good on the whole - I imagine the Scottish are much the same.

This post has been edited by Malaclypse: 18 September 2014 - 09:12 AM