[Tattersail_]

cerveza_fiesta, on 04 June 2013 - 03:02 PM, said:

Well, given that my 3 ships have a good chance of blowing anything entering that hex with me to smithereens BEFORE I bother blowing the ancients to smithereens, you all might want to think twice about how badly you want the hex.

EDIT

*now read that in a blustery pirate voice

Stupid question I know but even though I have seen the simulation and participated in battle I still don't fully understand how things are worked out. Just as an example I was looking at my dread versus CF's cruiser and interceptor, now with my computers I am more guaranteed a hit than he is, his interceptor gets hit and dies.Then his cruiser would take two hits and then die. Where as he'd need 3 hits to do me in. So it is first to 3 hits essentially. For him to get a hit he'd need to roll a 5 or a 6 right? Whereas for me to get a hit anything above a 3.

He goes first because of his better initiative. Can anyone work out the odds?

Slightly in his favour I think but only just.

[Tattersail_]

cerveza_fiesta, on 04 June 2013 - 03:14 PM, said:

Joking. I love everybody. We can all just have our little corners of the galaxy and get together once in awhile on the GCDS to play board games. Right me buckos? Who's with me??

You could attack Gnaw from one side and me from the other? Just a thought. Don't think I am planning this Gnaw, just want to know what CF has to say.

[Tapper]

Ganoes Paran, on 04 June 2013 - 03:20 PM, said:

cerveza_fiesta, on 04 June 2013 - 03:02 PM, said:

Well, given that my 3 ships have a good chance of blowing anything entering that hex with me to smithereens BEFORE I bother blowing the ancients to smithereens, you all might want to think twice about how badly you want the hex.

EDIT

*now read that in a blustery pirate voice

Stupid question I know but even though I have seen the simulation and participated in battle I still don't fully understand how things are worked out. Just as an example I was looking at my dread versus CF's cruiser and interceptor, now with my computers I am more guaranteed a hit than he is, his interceptor gets hit and dies.Then his cruiser would take two hits and then die. Where as he'd need 3 hits to do me in. So it is first to 3 hits essentially. For him to get a hit he'd need to roll a 5 or a 6 right? Whereas for me to get a hit anything above a 3.

He goes first because of his better initiative. Can anyone work out the odds?

Slightly in his favour I think but only just.

Run the simulator like 1000 times and, with about 2% deviation, you'll know the odds quite quickly (you can tell the sim to run itself 1000 times easy, by filling it in in the right corner).
What you forget is that CF hits for 2 damage - so he'll only need 2 hits. He also shoots before you do. So even if you destroy one of his ships, that ship already had a chance to punish you.

[twelve]

My upkeep is complete.

[Tattersail_]

Tapper, on 04 June 2013 - 03:35 PM, said:

Ganoes Paran, on 04 June 2013 - 03:20 PM, said:

cerveza_fiesta, on 04 June 2013 - 03:02 PM, said:

Well, given that my 3 ships have a good chance of blowing anything entering that hex with me to smithereens BEFORE I bother blowing the ancients to smithereens, you all might want to think twice about how badly you want the hex.

EDIT

*now read that in a blustery pirate voice

Stupid question I know but even though I have seen the simulation and participated in battle I still don't fully understand how things are worked out. Just as an example I was looking at my dread versus CF's cruiser and interceptor, now with my computers I am more guaranteed a hit than he is, his interceptor gets hit and dies.Then his cruiser would take two hits and then die. Where as he'd need 3 hits to do me in. So it is first to 3 hits essentially. For him to get a hit he'd need to roll a 5 or a 6 right? Whereas for me to get a hit anything above a 3.

He goes first because of his better initiative. Can anyone work out the odds?

Slightly in his favour I think but only just.

Run the simulator like 1000 times and, with about 2% deviation, you'll know the odds quite quickly (you can tell the sim to run itself 1000 times easy, by filling it in in the right corner).
What you forget is that CF hits for 2 damage - so he'll only need 2 hits. He also shoots before you do. So even if you destroy one of his ships, that ship already had a chance to punish you.

 Resolution.jpg (14.9K)
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Very tight. I'd win 541 out of 1000 odds wise.

[Tattersail_]

On another note, where are we up to?

[twelve]

Ganoes Paran, on 04 June 2013 - 04:02 PM, said:

On another note, where are we up to?

We are waiting on everyone to do their upkeep as far as I can tell. Once that is done then CF will draw the new tech for round 3 and Morgoth can start us off.

[Tattersail_]

twelve, on 04 June 2013 - 04:05 PM, said:

Ganoes Paran, on 04 June 2013 - 04:02 PM, said:

On another note, where are we up to?

We are waiting on everyone to do their upkeep as far as I can tell. Once that is done then CF will draw the new tech for round 3 and Morgoth can start us off.

I like your quick responses Twelve.

[twelve]

I see that Me, D'rek and Tapper all have readable upkeeps. Tatts yours is nothing but a bunch of jibberish and everyone else still need to post their upkeep unless I overlooked someone.

[twelve]

Ganoes Paran, on 04 June 2013 - 04:06 PM, said:

twelve, on 04 June 2013 - 04:05 PM, said:

Ganoes Paran, on 04 June 2013 - 04:02 PM, said:

On another note, where are we up to?

We are waiting on everyone to do their upkeep as far as I can tell. Once that is done then CF will draw the new tech for round 3 and Morgoth can start us off.

I like your quick responses Twelve.

I'm an addict what can I say.

[Tattersail_]

twelve, on 04 June 2013 - 04:09 PM, said:

I see that Me, D'rek and Tapper all have readable upkeeps. Tatts yours is nothing but a bunch of jibberish and everyone else still need to post their upkeep unless I overlooked someone.

What's up with mine.

Okay, fixed formatting. What say you now Twelve?

This post has been edited by Ganoes Paran: 04 June 2013 - 04:18 PM

[twelve]

Ganoes Paran, on 04 June 2013 - 04:11 PM, said:

twelve, on 04 June 2013 - 04:09 PM, said:

I see that Me, D'rek and Tapper all have readable upkeeps. Tatts yours is nothing but a bunch of jibberish and everyone else still need to post their upkeep unless I overlooked someone.

What's up with mine.

Okay, fixed formatting. What say you now Twelve?

Better. All the jibberish is gone.

[cerveza_fiesta]

GP,

Actually it would be more like this (I have 3 ships). For the purposes of this simulation, I have more initiative so attacking/defending doesn't matter.

EDIT

Fucks sake...stupid forum not handling fonts properly.

I just did the sims with 10k runs each. Me against your stock dread gives about 77% chance of me winning if I use all 3 ships.

If you were to swap your electron computer for a positron computer, and pick up tachyon drive, then all of a sudden you have the initiative over my cruiser and the tables turn. You have 65% chance of winning at that point.

But I'll likely do damage, and that damage is carried into the ancient battle as far as I know.

This post has been edited by cerveza_fiesta: 04 June 2013 - 04:58 PM

[Tapper]

cerveza_fiesta, on 04 June 2013 - 04:54 PM, said:

GP,

Actually it would be more like this (I have 3 ships). For the purposes of this simulation, I have more initiative so attacking/defending doesn't matter.

EDIT

Fucks sake...stupid forum not handling fonts properly.

I just did the sims with 10k runs each. Me against your stock dread gives about 77% chance of me winning if I use all 3 ships.

If you were to swap your electron computer for a positron computer, and pick up tachyon drive, then all of a sudden you have the initiative over my cruiser and the tables turn. You have 65% chance of winning at that point.

But I'll likely do damage, and that damage is carried into the ancient battle as far as I know.

I actually thought all surviving ships have their damage reset between combats, but I am nowhere near certain of that.

[twelve]

Tapper, on 04 June 2013 - 05:37 PM, said:

cerveza_fiesta, on 04 June 2013 - 04:54 PM, said:

GP,

Actually it would be more like this (I have 3 ships). For the purposes of this simulation, I have more initiative so attacking/defending doesn't matter.

EDIT

Fucks sake...stupid forum not handling fonts properly.

I just did the sims with 10k runs each. Me against your stock dread gives about 77% chance of me winning if I use all 3 ships.

If you were to swap your electron computer for a positron computer, and pick up tachyon drive, then all of a sudden you have the initiative over my cruiser and the tables turn. You have 65% chance of winning at that point.

But I'll likely do damage, and that damage is carried into the ancient battle as far as I know.

I actually thought all surviving ships have their damage reset between combats, but I am nowhere near certain of that.

Nope, Damage carries forward. It resets after all the battles are complete. So if Tatts gets beat up by CF then the ancients have an easier chance of blowing him up.

[Imperial Historian]

Between rounds damage is reset. If three or more combats occur in the same hex in the same round damage is carried over.

EDIT: And by my estimations Tats stands a reasonable chance of beating CF or the ancients, but probably not both. And CF also stands a reasonable chance of beating Tats or ancients... but probably not both.

I think long term tats losing his dread vs Cf losing his ships probably harms CF more, but we'll see

[twelve]

cerveza_fiesta, on 04 June 2013 - 04:54 PM, said:

GP,

Actually it would be more like this (I have 3 ships). For the purposes of this simulation, I have more initiative so attacking/defending doesn't matter.

EDIT

Fucks sake...stupid forum not handling fonts properly.

I just did the sims with 10k runs each. Me against your stock dread gives about 77% chance of me winning if I use all 3 ships.

If you were to swap your electron computer for a positron computer, and pick up tachyon drive, then all of a sudden you have the initiative over my cruiser and the tables turn. You have 65% chance of winning at that point.

But I'll likely do damage, and that damage is carried into the ancient battle as far as I know.

So what you are saying is that Tatts needs to pick up the Tachyon drive and add 2 positron computers so he can shoot before your interceptors or he has to enter the hex before you do to get the inititive over your interceptors. And then he will win at an even higher percentage than 65%?

[Gnaw]

twelve, on 04 June 2013 - 04:05 PM, said:

Ganoes Paran, on 04 June 2013 - 04:02 PM, said:

On another note, where are we up to?

We are waiting on everyone to do their upkeep as far as I can tell. Once that is done then CF will draw the new tech for round 3 and Morgoth can start us off.

What about supernova and hive rolls? On the latter, is it a single die or two?

[D'rek]

Gnaw, on 04 June 2013 - 06:20 PM, said:

twelve, on 04 June 2013 - 04:05 PM, said:

Ganoes Paran, on 04 June 2013 - 04:02 PM, said:

On another note, where are we up to?

We are waiting on everyone to do their upkeep as far as I can tell. Once that is done then CF will draw the new tech for round 3 and Morgoth can start us off.

What about supernova and hive rolls? On the latter, is it a single die or two?

It is still the Upkeep Phase, those do not roll until Cleanup Phase. Only one di needs to be rolled for hives since the ancients in one of the hives are now dead.

[D'rek]

Going through the first page, looks like the discovery tiles that are left in the bag are:

3x Money +8
2x Science +5
2x Resource +6
1x Free Tech
1x Free Cruiser
1x 3 Mon / 2 Sci / 2 Mat
1x Orbital
1x Warp Portal
1x Ion Turret
1x Shard Hull
1x Flux Shield
1x Ion Disruptor
1x Jump Drive
1x Morph Shield

minus one of the above, whichever corresponds to Khell's ambiguous

Khellendros, on 30 April 2013 - 01:16 PM, said:

3. EXPLORE south of Beta Hydri.
3a. Influence Zeta A..thingamy, collect discovery tile. Use discovery tile for VPs.

Is that correct?