[Tennes]

Ampelas, on 15 November 2012 - 09:26 AM, said:

Those odds aren't perfect, maybe even wrong. He has picked 4 names out of the 16 playing. I have picked one. That is what I am saying. Say there are 3 people per faction then that is at best 3/16 players that could be in your faction. Or is it 2/15 excluding you? Either way picking 4 low posters as a pool of suspects would have a greater chance of picking up someone in your faction than going with something else.

No, it wouldn't. You are assuming that the pool of low players has one of your teammates in it, when that isn't an assumption we can make. Whoever you pick, unless you know your faction, if we are working off the assumption (and apparently we are, no matter how wrong it has to be unless I'm missing something) that there is you + 2 in your faction, your chance of hitting someone in your faction is currently 2/16, or 1/8. Of course this technically changes for people in the alliance and 6 factions times 3 in each faction is already 18 players. Someone asked for Skeletons in the request thread, so I would assume Qadi is in game, which brings us up to 7 factions. Of course, without any kind of CF on the two modkills, most odds-based math can be tossed out the window.

[Tennes]

That isn't right as I look at it. It would be 2/15 after removing the person doing the picking, which makes it you currently have a 2/15 or 1/7.5 chance of picking someone in your faction, if we assume all factions in game started with 3 people in them, and your faction didn't lose someone to the modkills.

[Galain]

Tennes, on 15 November 2012 - 09:32 AM, said:

That isn't right as I look at it. It would be 2/15 after removing the person doing the picking, which makes it you currently have a 2/15 or 1/7.5 chance of picking someone in your faction, if we assume all factions in game started with 3 people in them, and your faction didn't lose someone to the modkills.

And if your lost one member of your faction to the modkill the odds of picking the other remaining person is 1/15. And if you lost two members to the modkill then you don't have anyone else in your faction anymore.
And all of this is not really helping us in the whether or not to lynch and whom debate.

[Ampelas]

Tennes, on 15 November 2012 - 09:32 AM, said:

That isn't right as I look at it. It would be 2/15 after removing the person doing the picking, which makes it you currently have a 2/15 or 1/7.5 chance of picking someone in your faction, if we assume all factions in game started with 3 people in them, and your faction didn't lose someone to the modkills.

Like I pointed out up thread. So the final choice would be 2/15 but you'd be pooling 4 players together as lynch candidate, the odds of one of those being in your faction increase do they not? So then your odds of picking someone in your faction would be 1 in 4 out of those 4. Maybe I'm just bending over here and fucking myself in the head with maths..

[Ampelas]

Galain, on 15 November 2012 - 09:39 AM, said:

Tennes, on 15 November 2012 - 09:32 AM, said:

That isn't right as I look at it. It would be 2/15 after removing the person doing the picking, which makes it you currently have a 2/15 or 1/7.5 chance of picking someone in your faction, if we assume all factions in game started with 3 people in them, and your faction didn't lose someone to the modkills.

And if your lost one member of your faction to the modkill the odds of picking the other remaining person is 1/15. And if you lost two members to the modkill then you don't have anyone else in your faction anymore.
And all of this is not really helping us in the whether or not to lynch and whom debate.

So you're thinking Anomandaris, so is Tennes. What do you make of Karosis?

[Tennes]

Ampelas, on 15 November 2012 - 09:41 AM, said:

Tennes, on 15 November 2012 - 09:32 AM, said:

That isn't right as I look at it. It would be 2/15 after removing the person doing the picking, which makes it you currently have a 2/15 or 1/7.5 chance of picking someone in your faction, if we assume all factions in game started with 3 people in them, and your faction didn't lose someone to the modkills.

Like I pointed out up thread. So the final choice would be 2/15 but you'd be pooling 4 players together as lynch candidate, the odds of one of those being in your faction increase do they not? So then your odds of picking someone in your faction would be 1 in 4 out of those 4. Maybe I'm just bending over here and fucking myself in the head with maths..

No. The odds of picking someone in your faction do not increase. It remains 2/15. You are assuming, again, that someone in those 4 is in your faction, which isn't an assumption you can reasonably make.

[Galain]

Ampelas, on 15 November 2012 - 09:42 AM, said:

Galain, on 15 November 2012 - 09:39 AM, said:

Tennes, on 15 November 2012 - 09:32 AM, said:

That isn't right as I look at it. It would be 2/15 after removing the person doing the picking, which makes it you currently have a 2/15 or 1/7.5 chance of picking someone in your faction, if we assume all factions in game started with 3 people in them, and your faction didn't lose someone to the modkills.

And if your lost one member of your faction to the modkill the odds of picking the other remaining person is 1/15. And if you lost two members to the modkill then you don't have anyone else in your faction anymore.
And all of this is not really helping us in the whether or not to lynch and whom debate.

So you're thinking Anomandaris, so is Tennes. What do you make of Karosis?

Karosis is someone who keeps slipping my mind. Let me do a quick read-up on him.

[Spite]

Quote

Spite, on 15 November 2012 - 07:23 AM, said:

Ok reading up on the last few pages it seems to be a lot of talk about lynching spammers/ low posters.
I guess atm there isnt really a lot to go on because of the cult mechanics and no nk. Id be willing to vote to get a lynch so that we have some information, but im kind of unsure on the reasoning behind Tennes. If i had to choose right now id probably go for Telann because i think the case on him at least had some merit even if it was thin.

How is the reason "I have a bad gut feeling about Tellan", better than "Hey, Tennes has very few post and almost all of them are spam"?

Because low posting isnt a reason its a cop out basically. Having a bad feeling i can get behind more because its based on content rather than just how often someone is posting

[Galain]

Right, Karosis was the one who suggested to lynch those people who are likely to be modkilled. Apart from that he has not really contributed much and he seems to have vanished for today - he has only one post after the day started. So, I see where your suspicion comes from.
I still prefer to go for a low post right now though, that way people might become more inclined to up their posting.

[Ampelas]

Karosis, on 13 November 2012 - 01:57 PM, said:

Given that this game is going to be more fun with active players, and given that it will be played mostly behind the scenes and that it is necessary to play to do that, I am going to throw the suggestion out there that we should just lynch one of the people who are gonna get mod-killed. That way it's a little less likely to break the game if they get mod killed.

On that note,

vote Tennes

He is the first one I notices as not having checked in. Who are the others? I am thinking Fener, Korvalain, Tulas Shorn? Anyway, if people like this idea for a Day 1 lynch, I would be willing to move my vote amongst those players. If not, well I am open-minded, but I don't really see any great cases right now.

He has a few arguments with Ruse and Sorrit about numbers. Then this post. He votes Tennes who was NOT one of the ones that hadn't posted. I don't know what his game was here but it was only one click away to check. He then moves it to Tulas. Accuses Emur of being on Tulas' team. Says stuff about Fener's potential location. So that was ALL day one. Then if you look. Day 2 arrives and....

[Ampelas]

Karosis, on 14 November 2012 - 03:34 PM, said:

Ampelas, on 14 November 2012 - 03:18 PM, said:

Would you touch my wood instead? Wait what are we talking about here?

No one wants to touch your wood, I mean, look at your avatar!

I think this is his only post.

[Spite]

also
remove vote
vote Telann
since i dont know much time we have left or where the votes are atm and currently i feel i can get behind this lynch more than any other.

[Galain]

Spite, on 15 November 2012 - 09:56 AM, said:

Quote

Spite, on 15 November 2012 - 07:23 AM, said:

Ok reading up on the last few pages it seems to be a lot of talk about lynching spammers/ low posters.
I guess atm there isnt really a lot to go on because of the cult mechanics and no nk. Id be willing to vote to get a lynch so that we have some information, but im kind of unsure on the reasoning behind Tennes. If i had to choose right now id probably go for Telann because i think the case on him at least had some merit even if it was thin.

How is the reason "I have a bad gut feeling about Tellan", better than "Hey, Tennes has very few post and almost all of them are spam"?

Because low posting isnt a reason its a cop out basically. Having a bad feeling i can get behind more because its based on content rather than just how often someone is posting

I can understand that there is sometimes not enough time to post a lot, but then you shouldn't just post spam. And it is hard to get any kind of feeling for a low poster, so they will hardly be accused of causing a bad feeling.

[Ampelas]

Early doors in a big faction game people do low post though, if it continues then maybe we can become an angry mob. Maybe we post a warning that their time is coming if they do not get involved. Yet for now i'm all for going for those who made a big fuss day one and have gone silent since. That strikes as a change of strategy in my opinion

[Galain]

Ampelas, on 15 November 2012 - 10:04 AM, said:

Early doors in a big faction game people do low post though, if it continues then maybe we can become an angry mob. Maybe we post a warning that their time is coming if they do not get involved. Yet for now i'm all for going for those who made a big fuss day one and have gone silent since. That strikes as a change of strategy in my opinion

Maybe it is a change in strategy or maybe is a lack of time. If you look at my posts for example, you'll see, that before now I had only one post made during the day, simply because I'm usually extremely busy on wednesdays (everybody seems to think that is the ideal time to do things, because it is the day where there is the least to do) and I only found enough time to start posting more now.
That doesn't mean that we should ignore this change, but I'm willing to give Karosis a few more hours to show up again.

[Path-Shaper]

It is Day 2. 11 hours and 36 minutes remaining

16 Players still alive: Ampelas, Anomandaris, Atrahal, Emurlahn, Fener, Galain, Karosis, Olar Ethil, Ruse, Silanah, Sorrit, Spite, Telas, Tellan, Tennes, Tulas Shorn

9 votes to lynch, 8 votes to go to night.

1 Vote for Anomandaris ( Galain )
1 Vote for Karosis ( Ampelas )
3 Votes for Tellan ( Sorrit, Ruse, Spite )
1 Vote for Tennes ( Atrahal )

Players not voted: Anomandaris, Emurlahn, Fener, Karosis, Olar Ethil, Silanah, Telas, Tellan, Tennes, Tulas Shorn

[Ampelas]

Galain, on 15 November 2012 - 10:13 AM, said:

Ampelas, on 15 November 2012 - 10:04 AM, said:

Early doors in a big faction game people do low post though, if it continues then maybe we can become an angry mob. Maybe we post a warning that their time is coming if they do not get involved. Yet for now i'm all for going for those who made a big fuss day one and have gone silent since. That strikes as a change of strategy in my opinion

Maybe it is a change in strategy or maybe is a lack of time. If you look at my posts for example, you'll see, that before now I had only one post made during the day, simply because I'm usually extremely busy on wednesdays (everybody seems to think that is the ideal time to do things, because it is the day where there is the least to do) and I only found enough time to start posting more now.
That doesn't mean that we should ignore this change, but I'm willing to give Karosis a few more hours to show up again.

Fair enough. What other players do you see are hiding? Or not having time to post? What are your thoughts on Ruse being silenced?

[Galain]

Ampelas, on 15 November 2012 - 10:21 AM, said:

Galain, on 15 November 2012 - 10:13 AM, said:

Ampelas, on 15 November 2012 - 10:04 AM, said:

Early doors in a big faction game people do low post though, if it continues then maybe we can become an angry mob. Maybe we post a warning that their time is coming if they do not get involved. Yet for now i'm all for going for those who made a big fuss day one and have gone silent since. That strikes as a change of strategy in my opinion

Maybe it is a change in strategy or maybe is a lack of time. If you look at my posts for example, you'll see, that before now I had only one post made during the day, simply because I'm usually extremely busy on wednesdays (everybody seems to think that is the ideal time to do things, because it is the day where there is the least to do) and I only found enough time to start posting more now.
That doesn't mean that we should ignore this change, but I'm willing to give Karosis a few more hours to show up again.

Fair enough. What other players do you see are hiding? Or not having time to post? What are your thoughts on Ruse being silenced?

I haven't noticed anyone else to be hiding, did you?
Ruse being silenced is interesting. The thing that surprises me the most about it that it didn't start at the beginning of the day, but sometime in the middle. But that could be because, if it is a player ability, that the player didn't have the things he needed for it sooner. Or it could be that Ruse is faking being silenced, but I think that is rather unlikely.

[Path-Shaper]

A word on timing & distance:

I try to resolve everything at the same time (end of the phase) unless they're actions that affect the player only, then they can be resolved immediately (and by the player).
I thought I had more or less taken care of this in design, and where it didn't, I more or less figured it would be OK.
Unfortunately, for some abilities, this isn't possible. I knew this: things that say 'until the end of this phase' kind of become impossible if you don't resolve them instantly - likewise, since 'dawn' is tied to 'first log-in of the game day' there will always be issues with dawn actions being processed after others have already submitted day actions/ done day things. Partly this can be mitigated with provisionals, but some things can't be. Turns out it is a tiny bit of a bigger problem than I thought.

I'll have to go through the entire design yet again for the next game, and remove these last bits, too. Luckily, less than half of the roles will come out of this game alive..... less re-balancing of what is already written.

Distance: good to know for all of you:

If you move from one tile to another, you are considered to be in both for the purposes of targeting others and being targeted yourself.

For example, say that:

Quote

player A is on the Mirror and moves to the Nepeth Barracks at the 5.34 timestamp. He targets player B with a Retainer action while on the Barracks.
Player B is on the Square of Camels and moves to the Road to Ishktar at the 5.36 timestamp.

For the purpose of resolving actions, Player A is on the Mirror AND the Nepeth Barracks. Player B is at the Square AND at the Road. Because the road is adjacent to the Mirror, the action will go through.
So, movement extends the possibilities of some of your actions, and also increases the chance you'll be targeted yourself.

Since movement is a use of your action for that phase, for the majority of you this will be a negative effect (being targeted more) unless you have a lot of Items/ Retainers, of course, so that you can target more people.

[Atrahal]

Olar Ethil, on 15 November 2012 - 05:20 AM, said:

Hey look Tennes showed up!!!

remove vote

And that's all it took for you to remove your vote? Wow, we are very wishy-washy aren't we?