[Macros]

What even is that from Trump??

[HoosierDaddy]

Macros, on 07 August 2024 - 09:48 AM, said:

What even is that from Trump??

An attempt to "whataboutism" Trump's threat to end American democracy. "Yeah, I tried to steal the election and concocted a criminal plot that was aided and abetted by many members of my party to do so... but Joe Biden stepped down due to outside pressure and because he realized he couldn't win... so Kamala didn't even have to run in a primary and that's way worse!!!!!"

There were lots of problems with the way the Democratic party ran and organized the 2024 primary. How they handled Biden's unprecedented withdrawal at the last moment is not one of them. They united behind who he chose as his successor, and for better or worse, that was probably the wisest thing to do.

[Tiste Simeon]

Macros, on 07 August 2024 - 09:48 AM, said:

What even is that from Trump??

The unhinged desperate ramblings of a psychotic dementia riddled fascist who doesn't know how to react to anything.

[HoosierDaddy]

Gone pretty quiet in here since Biden "stepped down" from being the nominee. I put that in quotes because people will say he was "forced out." But honestly, if he wanted to be he'd be the nominee. I'm going to put the positive spin on it that he finaly did what needed being done and I don't begrudge the bitterness that he feels. He's entitled to his feelings because he made the right choice.

We'll see how it plays from here on out, but it was the right decision hopefully not done too late.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Ut oh, Trump has a new campaign strategy:

Quote

Hulk Hogan Chugs Beer: 'Want Me to Body Slam Kamala Harris?'

[...] "Want me to body slam Kamala Harris? I said, do you want me to body slam Kamala Harris? Want me to drop the leg on Kamala?" Hogan said a video shared by TMZ. The crowd answered "yes" to each question. "Is Kamala a chameleon? Is she Indian?"

Hulk Hogan Chugs Beer in Ohio: 'Want Me to Body Slam Kamala Harris?' (thedailybeast.com)

Biden better nuke him fast... or will the radiation only make him even stronger?



Hmm, interesting how he very overtly uses classic manipulation techniques---the yes-ladder, framing, reciprocity (he's been tossing out beers), etc.---and how low-energy he seems. When he says "Is Kamala a chameleon? Is she Indian?" he seems to mean "and therefore not Black", as if being Indian-American and Black were mutually exclusive, which is of course completely idiotic...

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 21 August 2024 - 09:01 PM

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Ut oh (but for real this time):

Quote

Betting odds shift in Trump's favor as RFK Jr. prepares to pull out of presidential race

[...] RFK Jr. is also reportedly seeking to strike a deal with Trump that would see him endorse [Trump] in return for a high-level position in government should Trump prevail [...]

Trump currently has a 53% chance of winning, compared with Democratic Party nominee Harris, at 46%, data from Polymarket show.

Other betting sites are showing a less pronounced shift toward Trump. On PredictIt, which has less volume than Polymarket, Harris still has a lead.

Betting odds shift in Trump's favor as RFK Jr. prepares to pull out of presidential race - MarketWatch

Or maybe not so much:

Quote

Polls show that a Kennedy withdrawal would probably help Trump more than it hurts him. But if it does, it's at the margins — though small margins have ended up deciding recent presidential elections.

Spoiler

[...] Since Biden's departure from the race, the total share of voters supporting Kennedy and third-party candidates in general has declined, according to national and battleground polls.

[...] in an example of the varied effects Kennedy has in different surveys, that poll shows Kennedy getting 3% of the voters who support Harris in a two-way matchup, while he gets 2% of Trump's backers.

And in the New York Times/Siena College battleground polling of Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina, Kennedy's combined share of the multicandidate vote was just 4% — with the same percentage of Harris (3%) and Trump (3%) backers supporting him.

How RFK Jr.'s exit would help Trump, according to the polls (nbcnews.com)

... but that Kennedy endorsement could make the difference... with conspiracy theory weirdos (though given the popularity of Joe Rogan---and, in many parts of the country, Donald Trump---weird conspiracy theories have become relatively mainstream) tipping over the balance...

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 22 August 2024 - 04:03 PM

[HoosierDaddy]

Let them all bathe together in their sea of false information. There's a reason the Democrats told Bear Brain McGoo to fuck off when he came to try and leech a job. He can continue to fuck right off.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

HoosierDaddy, on 22 August 2024 - 05:29 PM, said:

Let them all bathe together in their sea of false information. There's a reason the Democrats told Bear Brain McGoo to fuck off when he came to try and leech a job. He can continue to fuck right off.

I was contemplating just what high-ranking government position RFK Jr wants from Trump---a cabinet role? surely not Secretary of Health and Human Services?... but of course that's it:

Quote

HHS oversees 13 agencies, including the Food and Drug Administration, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the National Institutes of Health. On the campaign trail, in podcasts and in news interviews, Kennedy has described wanting to dismantle those offices and rebuild them with like-minded fringe figures.

[...] "I'm going to say to NIH scientists, [...] We're going to give infectious disease a break for about eight years."

How RFK Jr.'s exit would help Trump, according to the polls (nbcnews.com)

:::bottomless facepalms:::

... and Trump's probably going to go along with it. Though he may wait until after the election to admit it, since there would be a significant backlash---OTOH most of the people who would object to it already won't vote for Trump... but this might encourage people to turn out and vote.

However, deriding RFK Jr's supporters for being "weird" might just piss them off enough to get them to turn out (like torrents of infectious urine, washing democracy and sanity away...)...

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 22 August 2024 - 07:05 PM

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Well here's a more pleasant set of headlines:

Quote

"Kamala Harris Just Gave the Speech of Her Life"

"Fox Cuts Off Ranting Trump Then Mocks: 'He's Still Talking!'"

"Fox News Absolutely Tanks in DNC Ratings Race"

"Jon Stewart: Even Fox News Had to Admit DNC a Massive Hit
JOY"

"Who Needs Beyoncé? Harris' Speech Electrifies Democrats"

Huh, guess I was wrong about her lacking charisma?... granted, those are all from The Daily Beast today... but other media outlets seem to agree:

Quote

Kamala Harris ascends as Democrats pull off miracle convention

Tens of thousands of Democrats are heading home, exhilarated by a convention that surpassed their wildest expectations and added rocket fuel to a campaign that arguably didn't need it.

Spoiler

[...] Less than two months ago, the party appeared to be collapsing under the weight of its own candidate. It's not hyperbole to say Kamala Harris and the DNC pulled off a makeover of miraculous proportions.

The captivating four-day convention was a ratings monster [...]

Addressing a sea of stars and stripes, Harris called being an American "the greatest privilege on Earth" [ok I'm gagging a bit ...]

It was part of an intentional effort all week to recast Democrats as the party of freedom and patriotism

Kamala Harris ascends as Democrats pull off miracle convention (axios.com)

Whatever gets the masses to vote the right way I guess...

OTOH:

Quote

The DNC Has Been a Success—Except for the Issue Kamala Harris Really Should Have Been Ready For

The Democrats pushing for a cease-fire in Gaza feel like they're in another world at a giddy convention [...]

She described [...] encountering giddy attendees after she attended a forum where [...] an American pediatric intensive care doctor, recounted harrowing details from her medical mission in Gaza. "I was literally bawling at the panel, and then going into the convention where people are excited and celebrating—it was the weirdest feeling,"

The DNC has been a success—except for the issue Kamala Harris really should have been ready for. (slate.com)

[Cause]

What is the logic of not taxing tips. Besides populism?

Income is income. I imagine a lot of cash tips go unreported to the IRS anyway. If their income is too low to be expected to pay taxes that should be fixed by raising the tax bracket or because the USA tax code is pure unadulterated bullshit I guess that would mean raising the standard deduction.


There are I am sure some professions who make thousands in tips. Also unless the bill is very specific (tax code nightmare) this has to open the door to abuse. Who can tip whom and why? Can I be tipped for a good job in sales rather than getting commission?

[HoosierDaddy]

Wait til you read about the original intent behind the "no taxing tips" idea. Here's a hint (they want to convert CEO pay to gratuities)....

But, yes, ideally it's to keep money in the pockets of working families. But yes, it won't make much of an impact. However, working class families are the major target of both campaigns, especially those in the service industry in Nevada and other sunbelt vacation states.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Cause, on 29 August 2024 - 07:06 PM, said:

What is the logic of not taxing tips. Besides populism?

Income is income. I imagine a lot of cash tips go unreported to the IRS anyway. If their income is too low to be expected to pay taxes that should be fixed by raising the tax bracket or because the USA tax code is pure unadulterated bullshit I guess that would mean raising the standard deduction.


There are I am sure some professions who make thousands in tips. Also unless the bill is very specific (tax code nightmare) this has to open the door to abuse. Who can tip whom and why? Can I be tipped for a good job in sales rather than getting commission?

More like faux populism:

Quote

Tax-free tips might help a relatively small number of waiters at high-end restaurants. And they could reward hotel owners such as Trump by slowing efforts to raise the minimum wage for tipped workers. But many tipped workers make so little income that they already pay little or no income tax.

Trump's idea also would create many new opportunities to game the tax system

Untipped: Why Trump's Tax Cut Promise Would Hurt Many Service Workers | Tax Policy Center

Quote

Harris would couple her plan to eliminate taxes on tips with a push for Congress to raise the minimum wage [...] Also, the proposal would include an income limit and prevent hedge fund managers and lawyers from structuring their compensation to try to take advantage of the policy. Tips would remain subject to payroll taxes.

Trump [...] supported eliminating federal income and payroll taxes on tips[...] "We're looking at doing the full bore," Trump said

Both Trump and Harris want to eliminate taxes on tips. This is how it could affect workers | CNN Politics

As to whether the Trump administration would strive to allow anything to be reclassified as "tips" to avoid paying taxes---Trump will probably want to wield the IRS like a carrot-and-stick for the autocratic crony capitalist kleptocracy he's dreaming of... #ThePromisedLand #ManifestingDestiny

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 29 August 2024 - 08:34 PM

[worry]

Basically, Trump's plan is to open up bribery behind a veil of populism and Harris's plan is to do a moderately better-than-present tax & wage thing behind a veil of populism.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

worry, on 29 August 2024 - 08:55 PM, said:

Basically, Trump's plan is to open up bribery behind a veil of populism

Will the President be paid in tips? And the Supreme Court... and maybe the rest of the judiciary if they're feeling generous?...

[worry]

A couple old goats on SCOTUS have beaten them to the punch.

[Lady Bliss]

As someone that earned tips, and made crap for money, I for one would appreciate the tax break even though I never filed taxes on cash tips.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

From the Guardian:

Quote

The US may be a bitterly divided country, but I think I've found a topic which pretty much everyone can unite behind: tipping culture is out of control.

[...] There is now almost no payment transaction in the US that doesn't involve a prompt for a tip. If you go to get a coffee or pick up a takeout order, for example, an electronic screen will almost certainly get swivelled in your direction, asking if you want to add a 20%, 25% or 30% tip. More confusingly, however, if you go to the local convenience store to buy a pint of milk or a pack of crisps, chances are you'll still see that tip screen pointed at you. You're even prompted to leave a tip at some self-checkouts.

[...] Are we really expected to give a minimum 20% tip when we pick up some bread from the bakery, or grab a vanilla cone from the ice-cream shop? I don't know but, out of sheer embarrassment, I generally hit the 20% button.

Tipping culture in the US is out of control – we're even asked to tip self-checkouts | Arwa Mahdawi | The Guardian

(And she lives in the same city I do... though on the bright side it encourages people to avoid stores.)

But robots don't pay taxes at all... so if almost everything is done by robots...

It might slow the pace of automation,
And therefore it's an abomination.

OTOH since self-checkouts have also been asking for tips, they could still ask for tips for the small number of humans still involved in the process (human overseers, possibly millions of miles away?... or maybe for the CEOs and (very virtuous!) investors striving diligently to liberate humanity?)... but just as they balk at tipping for self-checkout, most people will be less likely to tip their robot saviors. (Unless the AI starts giving something extra in exchange for tips, perhaps---ideally with a random element, like slot machines?... hmm...)

But from the perspective of idealized economic theory, matching prices to the maximal amount that people are willing to pay is the optimal strategy because it maximizes their fantasy of utility. (Well, I'll grant that it maximizes utility for businesses... for humanity as a whole? I'm skeptical to say the least. For humanity as a hole, a vacuum to be contained by more rational agents... well maybe.) So tipping helps to do that: some people who would only buy at a lower price might just tip less, and some people who would be willing to pay more will. However some people will obviously pay less because they DGAF about getting dirty looks or bad future service from staff for not tipping (perhaps staffers could start a database of the faces and names/addresses of people who don't tip well, and have AI systems flag their entry, so they can know to give them dirty looks and terrible service right away?). And matching price to what people are willing to pay can be done more accurately by AI---while there's still the potential loophole of paying other people to buy things for you...

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 30 August 2024 - 11:00 AM

[HoosierDaddy]

Azath Vitr (D, on 30 August 2024 - 11:00 AM, said:

From the Guardian:

Quote

[...] Are we really expected to give a minimum 20% tip when we pick up some bread from the bakery, or grab a vanilla cone from the ice-cream shop? I don't know but, out of sheer embarrassment, I generally hit the 20% button.

Tipping culture in the US is out of control – we're even asked to tip self-checkouts | Arwa Mahdawi | The Guardian

....

Ice cream shop... assuming the person you are tipping is the scooper, I can possibly tolerate. Possibly. With a big eyeroll of don't encourage this bullshit and won't tip myself. But for the bread from the bakery? I don't believe this. I don't believe anyone is idiotic enough to tip the bank teller either.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

HoosierDaddy, on 30 August 2024 - 12:04 PM, said:

Ice cream shop... assuming the person you are tipping is the scooper, I can possibly tolerate. Possibly. With a big eyeroll of don't encourage this bullshit and won't tip myself. But for the bread from the bakery? I don't believe this. I don't believe anyone is idiotic enough to tip the bank teller either.

Not sure if you literally mean you don't believe it, but if you don't believe the Guardian columnist (who seems to be reporting about her own experience), here's the New York Times:

Quote

Anna Johnson found herself using an electronic screen to pay for a pickup order at a bakery in Phoenix, a normal enough experience at many food businesses she frequents. But this time, she was bewildered when the machine recommended that she tip as much as 35 percent — on cookies.

To Tip, or Not to Tip? - The New York Times (nytimes.com)

USA Today:

Quote

Some fed-up consumers are posting rants on social media [...] they're tired of being asked to leave a gratuity for a muffin or a simple cup of coffee at their neighborhood bakery.

Tired of being asked for tips? What customers, businesses should know (usatoday.com)

Here's a recent example:

Quote

I'm sure this has been discussed but I went to pick up 2 cakes today at a bakery and the tip register asks for 15%, 20%, 25%. I know we're all exhausted from tipping culture.

Tipping for picking up a cake : r/tipping (reddit.com)

Granted, they don't say that they sent reporters to bakeries to make sure people weren't making it all up. And I'm personally not going to risk getting long covid by going into a bakery. But I don't think it's a conspiracy against tipping.

Perhaps it hasn't spread to your area yet, but if this legislation passes then it almost certainly will.

However, the Guardian columnist seems to be wrong about one thing, according to a poll from this June:

Quote

According to a new Bankrate survey on tipping culture, 59 percent of Americans view tipping negatively, down from 66 percent in 2023. This includes people who feel businesses should pay employees better, are annoyed about pre-entered tip screens or would be willing to pay higher prices to be done with tipping.

In addition, 35 percent of Americans believe tipping culture has gotten out of control.

Survey: More than 1 in 3 Americans think tipping culture has gotten out of control | Bankrate

Obviously 35 percent is not a majority.

But it is perplexing that both Harris and Trump would support ending the tax on tips when a majority of Americans "view tipping negatively". Other polls, like the Pew Research poll released in November 2023, are consistent with the 2024 poll. However, a poll released in August found that abolishing federal income tax on tips

Quote

is supported by roughly three in four Republicans (73%), Democrats (75%), and independents (73%). However, Americans are more mixed on the potential outcomes of the policy: 54% say they think workers receiving tipped wages would be more financially secure, while 43% say employers would figure out how to pay workers less.

Proposed policy to end federal income tax on tips has bipartisan support | Ipsos

The inconsistency isn't so shocking in the context of other polls that show similar inconsistencies. For example:

Quote

about 30%-40% of Americans believe, contrary to basic economic theory and robust empirical evidence, that a large, exogenous increase in their region's housing stock would cause rents and home prices to rise. [...] Housing "Supply Skepticism" is not just a manifestation of general economic ignorance. We show that the public understands the implications of supply and demand in markets for agricultural commodities, for labor, and even for cars, a durable consumer good that, like housing, trades in new and second-hand markets.

Folk Economics and the Persistence of Political Opposition to New Housing by Clayton Nall, Christopher S. Elmendorf, Stan Oklobdzija :: SSRN

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 30 August 2024 - 05:34 PM

[HoosierDaddy]

What I meant was just because the option is in front of you doesn't mean you do it. It's part of the software that all these places just plug and play. It's simple to push the button that says "No".

I get asked for tips everywhere, but that doesn't mean I agree to it. It doesn't change the standard of when you tip just because it's offered. Anyway tipping has already gone from 15% to 20% standard in the last decade or so, I think that's enough change.